DE ASIS, EDWARD ASSIGNMENT 3

II-BDCET ENGDATA

Probability By Tree Diagram:

1.A Cabinet has 4 drawers. Two of the drawers each contain two envelopes each containing 10
dollars, one drawer containing one envelope w/ 5 dollars , and one envelope w/ 50 dollars, and
one drawer contains one empty envelope and w/ 1200 dollars. A person must choose a drawer
and then an envelope.Determine the outcomes and their probabilities ( $0, $5, $10, $50 and
1200) employing Tree Diagram

Solution: by looking and analyze the tree diagram to determine the probability of
($0,$5,$10,$50,$1200) thus applying probability theorem.
Probability of getting $10=½=0.50=50%
Probability of getting empty envelope ($0)=¼=0.25=25%
Probability of getting $50=¼=0.25=25%
Probability of getting $1200=¼=0.25=25%

2. Susan is deciding which courses she wants to take in her next college semester. The
probability that she enrolls in calculus course is 0.30 and the Probability that she enrolls in engg
economics course is 0.70.The probability that she will enroll in calculus course given that she
enrolls in engg economics course is0.40
a) What is the probability that she will enroll both calculus course and engg economics?

b) What is the probability that she will enroll in calculus course or engg economics course?

c) Are the two events independent?

d) Are the two events mutually exclusive?

Answer:
P(A)=Set A ={she enrolls in calculus}=0.30
P(B)=Set B={she enrolls in engineering economics}=0.70
P(A|B)=0.40

A. P(A n B)=? ; required using the formula of conditional probability as known Bayes
theorem.
P ( A n B)
P(AIB)=
P ( B)
P(A n B)=[P(A|B)]P(B)
 P(A n B)=0.40(0.70)
P(A n B)=0.28

B. P (A U B)=?
P (A U B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A n B )
=0.30+0 70-0.28
P(A U B) =0.72

C. If two events are independent when P(A n B)=P(A)*P(B), we need to compute P(A)*P(B)
Solution:
P(A)*P(B)=(0.30)(0.70)=0.21
P(A n B)=P(A)*P(B),
0.28≠0.21, Therefore the intersection of set A and B is not equal of Product of Set A and B
where two events not independent.

D. If the Set A and Set B is mutually exclusive where P(A n B) is equal to zero but according to
solution of 2.a the value of intersection of Set A and B is 0.28, therefore set A and set B is
not mutually exclusive.

3. A Particular study showed that 12% of Men will likely develop prostate cancer at some point
in their lives . A Man with prostate cancer has 95% of a positive result from medical screening
examination. A Man without prostate cancer has 6% chance of getting a false positive test
result.What is the probability that a Man has cancer given that he has a positive result?
Answer:

Set A=P(A)=Me have prostate cancer which is 0.12 or 12%.

Set B=P(B)=P(A)’=Men hasn’t prostate cancer which is 1-0.12=0.88 or 88%.

Event 1 in A(E1)=Men positive in prostate cancer which is 95% or 0.95.

Event 2 in A(E2)=E’(1)=Men negative in prostate cancer which 1-0.95=0.05 or 5%.

Event 3 in B(E3)=Men false positive in prostate cancer which is 0.06 or 6%.

Event 4 inB(E4)=E’(4)=Men negative in prostate cancer which is 1-.06=.92 or 92%..

P(A | positive)=? ; required determine getting the chance positive of prostate cancer.

By applying conditional probability.

P ( A n B)
P(A|B)=
P ( B)
P ( A n positive )
P(A | positive)=
P ( positive )
P ( A n positive )
P(A | positive)=
P ( A n positive ) + P ( B n positive )
0.12 ( 0.95 )
P(A | positive)=
0.12 ( 0.95 ) +0.06 ( 0.88 )
P(A | positive)= 0.6835∨68.35 % have more risk getting men a prostate cancer

4. Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. In the past, 95% of highly successful
products received good reviews, 60% of moderately successful products received good reviews,
and 10% of poor products received good reviews. In addition, 40% of products have been highly
successful, 35% have been moderately successful, and 25% have been poor products.
(a) What is the probability that a product attains a good review?
(b) If a new design attains a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly successful
product?
(c) If a product does not attain a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly
successful product?
ANSWER:
Given:
Set G=P(G)=Set of good review product design
Set H=P(H)=Set of highly successful product design=40% or 0.40
SET M=P(M)=Set of moderately successful product design=35%=0.35
SET P=P(P)=Set of poor rate products design=25% or 0.25.
P(G|H)=95% or 0.95
P(G | M)=60% or 0.60
P(G|P)=25% or 0.25
A. Determine the P(G) by combining the conditional probabilities are connected because the
values of P(G) are not same another ratings. Thus applying the multiplication rule in
multiple events approach where P(A n B)=P(A|B)*P(B)=P(B|A)*P(A) but won’t use the
P(H| G), P(M | G) & P(P| G) because don’t have value P(G), Therefore use available given to
determine the P(G).
P(G)=P(G n H)+P(G n M)+P(G n P)
=P(G | H)*P(H)+P(G | M)*P(M)+P(G |P)*P(P)
=(0.95)(0.40)+(0.60)(0.35)+(0.10)(0.25)
P(G)=0.615 or 61.50%

B. Determine the probability that it will be a highly successful Product, if a new design attains
a good review; P(H | G’)
Use: P(G)’=1-P(G)=0.385 & P(G’n H)=P(G’|H)*P(H) such that P(G’| H)=1-0.95 : Apply
Conditional probability.

P ( G n H ) P (G∨H )∗P(H ) ( 0.95 ) ( 0.40 )

P(H | G)= = = =0.6179∨61.79 %
P (G) P (G) 0.615
Another Approach:
P ( G' ) ( 1−.615 )
P(H | G)= = =0.6179∨61.79 %
P (G) .615

C. Determine the probability that it will be a highly successful, if a new design doesn’t attains a
good review; P(H | G’)
Use: P(G)’=1-P(G)=0.385 & P(G’n H)=P(G’|H)*P(H) such that P(G’| H)=1-0.95 : Apply
Conditional probability.

P ( G n H ) P (G'∨H )∗P(H ) ( 1−0.95 )( 0.40 )

P(H | G’)= = = =0.0519∨5.19 %
P (G) P ( G' ) 1−0.615

The probability that a lab specimen contains high levels of contamination is 0.10. Five
samples are checked, and the samples are independent.
 (a) What is the probability that none contains high levels of contamination?

(b) What is the probability that exactly one contains high levels of contamination?
© What is the probability that at least one contains high levels of contamination?

Answer:
5. Given the lab specimen have high levels of contamination which is 0.10. The number of samples
are 5, these are independent.
Let set A be the event lab specimen contains high levels of contamination.P(A)
Then P(A) = 0.10.

a). To find the probability that none contain levels of contamination.

Thus

P(A’)= 1- 0.1

P(A’) = 0.9
Then, probability that none of five samples contain high level of contamination =
5[P(A’)]=(A’ n A’ n A’ n A’ n A’)=5(0.9)=0.59 or 59.05%

Therefore, the probability that none of five samples contain high level of contamination is
0.59 by independence in multiple events within multiplication property.

b) To find the probability that exactly one contains high levels of contamination?
Event that exactly one specimen contains high levels of contamination can be represented as
an union of disjoint (mutually exclusive) events, 5 sample is given the intersection of 5
events from which one of them contains high levels of contamination. The probability of
each of the five events can be obtained the same way. Thus the equation for exactly one
contamination [(4A’)n A]=(A’ n A’ n A’ n A’ n A)= 4(0.9)* (0.1)=0.36 or 36%

Therefore, the probability that exactly one contains high levels is 0.36 by independence in
multiple events within multiplication property.

c). To find the probability that at least one contains high levels of contamination?
Event that at least one contains high levels of contamination (denote as E) is complement of
event that none contain high levels of contamination (event given in A’)

Applying the concept of the probability where P(E)=1-P(A’)

P(E)=1-P(A’)
P(E)=1-5905
P(E)=0.4095 or 40.95%
Therefore, the probability that least one contains high levels is 0.4095.