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    Unit4 - Lecture 2

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    Mayank Sharma
    The document discusses Bayesian belief networks in artificial intelligence. Bayesian belief networks are probabilistic graphical models that represent conditional dependencies between random variables using directed acyclic graphs. They are used for tasks involving prediction, anomaly detection, diagnostics and decision making under uncertainty.

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    Unit4 - Lecture 2

    Uploaded by

    Mayank Sharma
    17 views17 pages
    The document discusses Bayesian belief networks in artificial intelligence. Bayesian belief networks are probabilistic graphical models that represent conditional dependencies between random variables using directed acyclic graphs. They are used for tasks involving prediction, anomaly detection, diagnostics and decision making under uncertainty.

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    The document discusses Bayesian belief networks in artificial intelligence. Bayesian belief networks are probabilistic graphical models that represent conditional dependencies between random variables using directed acyclic graphs. They are used for tasks involving prediction, anomaly detection, diagnostics and decision making under uncertainty.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    17 views17 pages

    Unit4 - Lecture 2

    Uploaded by

    Mayank Sharma
    The document discusses Bayesian belief networks in artificial intelligence. Bayesian belief networks are probabilistic graphical models that represent conditional dependencies between random variables using directed acyclic graphs. They are used for tasks involving prediction, anomaly detection, diagnostics and decision making under uncertainty.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 17

    School of Computing Science and Engineering

    Course Code : BCSE2354 Course Name: Artificial Intelligence

    UNIT IV
    BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK IN AI

    Faculty Name : Mr. Janarthanan.S Programme Name: B.Tech


    Prerequisite / Recapitulation

    • Basic knowledge of AI

    • Basic knowledge about Resolution


    Objectives

    To discuss about the Bayesian belief network in ai


    Bayesian Belief Network In Ai

    Bayesian Belief Network in artificial intelligence


    Bayesian belief network is key computer technology for dealing with probabilistic
    events and to solve a problem which has uncertainty. We can define a Bayesian
    network as:
    "A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a set of
    variables and their conditional dependencies using a directed acyclic graph."
    It is also called a Bayes network, belief network, decision network,
    or Bayesian model.
    Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these networks are built from
    a probability distribution, and also use probability theory for prediction and
    anomaly detection.
    Real world applications are probabilistic in nature, and to represent the relationship
    between multiple events, we need a Bayesian network. It can also be used in various
    tasks including prediction, anomaly detection, diagnostics, automated insight,
    reasoning, time series prediction, and decision making under uncertainty.
    Bayesian Belief Network In Ai

    Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data and experts opinions, and it
    consists of two parts:

    o Directed Acyclic Graph

    o Table of conditional probabilities.


    The generalized form of Bayesian network that represents and solve decision problems under
    uncertain knowledge is known as an Influence diagram.
    A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs (directed links), where:
    Bayesian Belief Network In Ai

    o Each node corresponds to the random variables, and a variable can


    be continuous or discrete.
    o Arc or directed arrows represent the causal relationship or conditional
    probabilities between random variables. These directed links or arrows connect
    the pair of nodes in the graph.
    These links represent that one node directly influence the other node, and if
    there is no directed link that means that nodes are independent with each
    other
    o In the above diagram, A, B, C, and D are random variables
    represented by the nodes of the network graph.
    Bayesian Belief Network In Ai

    o If we are considering node B, which is connected with node A by


    a directed arrow, then node A is called the parent of Node B.
    o Node C is independent of node A.
    Note: The Bayesian network graph does not contain any cyclic graph. Hence, it
    is known as a directed acyclic graph or DAG.

    The Bayesian network has mainly two


    components:
    o Causal Component
    o Actual numbers
    Bayesian Belief Network In Ai

    Each node in the Bayesian network has condition probability distribution P(Xi |Parent(Xi) ),
    which determines the effect of the parent on that node.
    Bayesian network is based on Joint probability distribution and conditional probability. So let's first
    understand the joint probability distribution:
    Joint probability distribution:
    If we have variables x1, x2, x3,....., xn, then the probabilities of a different combination of x1, x2,
    x3.. xn, are known as Joint probability distribution.
    P[x1, x2, x3,....., xn], it can be written as the following way in terms of the joint probability
    distribution.
    = P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2, x3,....., xn]
    = P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2|x3,....., xn]....P[xn-1|xn]P[xn].
    In general for each variable Xi, we can write the equation as:

    P(Xi|Xi-1,........., X1) = P(Xi |Parents(Xi ))


    Bayesian Belief Network In Ai

    Explanation of Bayesian network:


    Let's understand the Bayesian network through an example by creating a
    directed acyclic graph:

    Example: Harry installed a new burglar alarm at his home to detect burglary.
    The alarm reliably responds at detecting a burglary but also responds for minor
    earthquakes. Harry has two neighbors David and Sophia, who have taken a
    responsibility to inform Harry at work when they hear the alarm. David always
    calls Harry when he hears the alarm, but sometimes he got confused with the
    phone ringing and calls at that time too. On the other hand, Sophia likes to
    listen to high music, so sometimes she misses to hear the alarm. Here we
    would like to compute the probability of Burglary Alarm.
    Bayesian Belief Network In Ai

    Problem:
    Calculate the probability that alarm has sounded, but there is neither a
    burglary, nor an earthquake occurred, and David and Sophia both called
    the Harry.
    Solution:
    The Bayesian network for the above problem is given below. The network
    structure is showing that burglary and earthquake is the parent node of the
    alarm and directly affecting the probability of alarm's going off, but David and
    Sophia's calls depend on alarm probability.
    Bayesian Belief Network In Ai

    o The network is representing that our assumptions do not directly perceive the
    burglary and also do not notice the minor earthquake, and they also not
    confer before calling.
    o The conditional distributions for each node are given as conditional
    probabilities table or CPT.
    o Each row in the CPT must be sum to 1 because all the entries in the table
    represent an exhaustive set of cases for the variable.
    o In CPT, a boolean variable with k boolean parents contains 2 K probabilities.
    Hence, if there are two parents, then CPT will contain 4 probability values
    Bayesian Belief Network In Ai

    List of all events occurring in this network:

    o Burglary (B), Earthquake(E)

    o Alarm(A) , David Calls(D)

    o Sophia calls(S)
    We can write the events of problem statement in the form of probability: P[D, S, A, B, E], can
    rewrite the above probability statement using joint probability distribution:
    P[D, S, A, B, E]= P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S, A, B, E]
    =P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S | A, B, E]. P[A, B, E]
    = P [D| A]. P [ S| A, B, E]. P[ A, B, E]
    = P[D | A]. P[ S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B, E]
    = P[D | A ]. P[S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B |E]. P[E]
    Bayesian Belief Network In Ai
    References

    •Elaine Rich and Kevin Knight, “Artificial Intelligence”, McGraw-Hill.

    •Stuart Russell, Peter Norvig, “Artificial Intelligence – A Modern Approach”, Pearson Education

    •E Charniak and D McDermott, “Introduction to Artificial Intelligence”, Pearson Education

    •https://www.javatpoint.com/bayesian-belief-network-in-artificial-intelligence

    15
    Contact Information

    Mr. Janarthanan.S
    Assistant Professor - SCSE
    janarthanan@galgotiasuniversity.edu.in
    Thank
    You

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