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    Bayesian Belief Network

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    Rohan Rathi
    mlt unit 3

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    Bayesian Belief Network

    Uploaded by

    Rohan Rathi
    7 views10 pages
    mlt unit 3

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    mlt unit 3

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    7 views10 pages

    Bayesian Belief Network

    Uploaded by

    Rohan Rathi
    mlt unit 3

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 10

    Bayesian Belief Network

     Bayesian Belief Network in artificial intelligence


     Bayesian belief network is key computer technology for dealing with
    probabilistic events and to solve a problem which has uncertainty. We can
    define a Bayesian network as:
     "A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a
    set of variables and their conditional dependencies using a directed acyclic
    graph."
     It is also called a Bayes network, belief network, decision network, or
    Bayesian model.
     Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these networks are built from
    a probability distribution, and also use probability theory for prediction
    and anomaly detection.
    Bayesian Belief Network
     Real world applications are probabilistic in nature, and to represent the
    relationship between multiple events, we need a Bayesian network. It can
    also be used in various tasks including prediction, anomaly detection,
    diagnostics, automated insight, reasoning, time series prediction, and
    decision making under uncertainty.
     Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data and experts
    opinions, and it consists of two parts:
     Directed Acyclic Graph
     Table of conditional probabilities.
    Bayesian Belief Network
     A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs (directed links), where:
     Each node corresponds to the random variables, and a variable can be continuous or
    discrete.
     Arc or directed arrows represent the causal relationship or conditional probabilities
    between random variables. These directed links or arrows connect the pair of nodes in
    the graph.
    These links represent that one node directly influence the other node, and if there is no
    directed link that means that nodes are independent with each other
     In the below diagram, A, B, C, and D are random variables represented by the nodes of the
    network graph.
     If we are considering node B, which is connected with node A by a directed arrow, then
    node A is called the parent of Node B.
     Node C is independent of node A.
    Bayesian Belief Network
     Note: The Bayesian network graph does not contain any cyclic graph.
    Hence, it is known as a directed acyclic graph or DAG.

    A B C D

     A directed graph G with four vertices A,B,C, and D. If p(xA,xB,xC,xD)


    factorizes with respect to G, then we must have p(xA,xB,xC,xD) =
    p(xA)p(xB|xA)p(xC|xB)p(xD|xC).
    Bayesian Belief Network
     Bayesian network is based on Joint probability distribution and conditional
    probability. So let's first understand the joint probability distribution:
     Joint probability distribution:
     If we have variables x1, x2, x3,....., xn, then the probabilities of a different
    combination of x1, x2, x3.. xn, are known as Joint probability distribution.
     P[x1, x2, x3,....., xn], it can be written as the following way in terms of the
    joint probability distribution.
     = P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2, x3,....., xn]
     = P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2|x3,....., xn]....P[xn-1|xn]P[xn].
     In general for each variable Xi, we can write the equation as:
     P(Xi|Xi-1,........., X1) = P(Xi |Parents(Xi ))
    Explanation Bayesian Belief Network

     Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data and experts
    opinions, and it consists of two parts:
     Directed Acyclic Graph
     Table of conditional probabilities.
    Explanation Bayesian Belief Network
    Directed Acyclic Graph: is the pictorial representation of the events that occurred.
    Node: Hypothesis
    Edge: conditional probability
    Note: # node has at least two probabilities.
    # Probabilities are calculated on the Rain
    Basis of parent.
    Conditional Probability Table Dog_Bark|Rain

    R ~R
    Rain
    B 9/48 18/48
    ~B 3/48 18/48 Cat|Hide|Dog_Bark

    B=T & R=T=0.19


    B=T & R=F=0.375 Rain
    B=F & R=T=0.66
    B=F & R=F=0.375
    Bayesian Belief Network

     Solved Example: Calculate the probability that alarm has sounded, but
    there is neither a burglary, nor an earthquake occurred, and David and
    Sophia both called the Harry.
    Bayesian Belief Network

     P(S, D, A, ¬B, ¬E) = P (S|A) *P (D|A)*P (A|¬B ^ ¬E) *P (¬B) *P


    (¬E).
     = 0.75* 0.91* 0.001* 0.998*0.999
     = 0.00068045.

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