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    Probability Theory AI

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    vepowo Landry
    - Jack services 20% of cars and fails to wash 1 in 20 times. - Tom services 60% of cars and fails 1 in 10 times. - George services 15% of cars and fails 1 in 10 times. - Peter services 5% of cars and fails 1 in 20 times. - To calculate the probability the customer's car was serviced by Jack, we can use Bayes' theorem to find the conditional probability P(Jack | No wash), given the prior probabilities and likelihoods of each attendant.

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    Probability Theory AI

    Uploaded by

    vepowo Landry
    35 views16 pages
    - Jack services 20% of cars and fails to wash 1 in 20 times. - Tom services 60% of cars and fails 1 in 10 times. - George services 15% of cars and fails 1 in 10 times. - Peter services 5% of cars and fails 1 in 20 times. - To calculate the probability the customer's car was serviced by Jack, we can use Bayes' theorem to find the conditional probability P(Jack | No wash), given the prior probabilities and likelihoods of each attendant.

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    - Jack services 20% of cars and fails to wash 1 in 20 times. - Tom services 60% of cars and fails 1 in 10 times. - George services 15% of cars and fails 1 in 10 times. - Peter services 5% of cars and fails 1 in 20 times. - To calculate the probability the customer's car was serviced by Jack, we can use Bayes' theorem to find the conditional probability P(Jack | No wash), given the prior probabilities and likelihoods of each attendant.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    35 views16 pages

    Probability Theory AI

    Uploaded by

    vepowo Landry
    - Jack services 20% of cars and fails to wash 1 in 20 times. - Tom services 60% of cars and fails 1 in 10 times. - George services 15% of cars and fails 1 in 10 times. - Peter services 5% of cars and fails 1 in 20 times. - To calculate the probability the customer's car was serviced by Jack, we can use Bayes' theorem to find the conditional probability P(Jack | No wash), given the prior probabilities and likelihoods of each attendant.

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    Artificial Intelligence

    Probability Theory
    Outline
    • Axioms of Probability
    • Product and chain rules
    • Bayes Theorem
    • Random variables
    • PDFs and CDFs
    • Expected value and variance
    Introduction
    • Sample space - set of all possible
    outcomes of a random experiment
    – Dice roll: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
    – Coin toss: {Tails, Heads}
    • Event space - subsets of elements in a
    sample space
    – Dice roll: {1, 2, 3} or {2, 4, 6}
    – Coin toss: {Tails}
    • 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑃: → ℝ
    • Axioms of Probability
    – 0 ≤ 𝑃 𝐴 ≤ 1, for all 𝐴 ∈
    – 𝑃(Ω) = 1

    𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 ∈ 𝐴
    • 𝑃 𝐴 = lim𝑛→∞
    𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
    examples
    • Coin flip
    – P(H)
    – P(T)
    – P(H,H,H)
    – P(x1=x2=x3=x4)
    – P({x1,x2,x3,x4} contains more than 3 heads)
    Set operations
    • Let 𝐴 = {1, 2, 3} and B = {2, 4, 6}
    • 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 2 and 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
    • 𝐴 − 𝐵 = 1, 3
    • Properties:
    • 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ≤ min 𝑃 𝐴 , 𝑃 𝐵
    • 𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 ≤𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵
    • 𝑃 Ω − 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
    • If 𝐴 ⊆ 𝐵 then 𝑃 𝐴 ≤ 𝑃(𝐵)
    Conditional Probability
    𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 𝑃 𝐴, 𝐵
    • 𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 = =
    𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵
    • A and B are independent if
    • 𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴)
    • A and B are conditionally independent given C if
    • 𝑃 𝐴, 𝐵 𝐶) = 𝑃 𝐴 𝐶)𝑃 𝐵 𝐶)
    Conditional Probability
    • Joint probability:
    𝑃 𝐴1 ,…,𝐴𝑛
    • 𝑃 𝐴1 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑛 ) =
    𝑃 𝐴2 ,…,𝐴𝑛

    • Product rule:
    • 𝑃 𝐴1 , … , 𝐴𝑛 = 𝑃 𝐴1 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑛 )𝑃 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑛
    • Chain rule of probability:
    • 𝑃 𝐴1 , … , 𝐴𝑛 = ς𝑛𝑖=1 𝑃 𝐴𝑖 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … 𝐴𝑖−1 )
    Conditional Probability
    • 𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 − probability of A given B
    • Example:
    – 𝑃(𝐴) probability that school is closed
    – 𝑃 𝐵 probability that it snows
    – 𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 probability of school closing if it snows
    – 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 probability of snowing if school is closed
    Conditional Probability
    • 𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 − probability of A given B
    • Example:
    – 𝑃(𝐴) probability that school is closed
    – 𝑃 𝐵 probability that it snows
    P(AnB) 0.005 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
    𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 =
    𝑃 𝐵
    P(B) 0.02

    P(A|B) 0.25
    Conditional Probability
    P(C) = 0.02 P(ØC) = 0.98
    • We have: P(TP | C) = 0.9 P(ØTP | C) = 0.1
    P(TP |ØC) = 0.2 P(ØTP |ØC) = 0.8

    • We can now calculate joint probabilities

    Has cancer?
    Has cancer? Test positive?
    Test positive? P(TP, C)
    P(TP, C)
    yes
    yes yes
    yes 0.018
    yes
    yes no 0.002
    no yes
    yes 0.196
    no no 0.784

    11
    Bayes Theorem
    • We can relate P(A|B) and P(B|A) through
    Bayes’ rule:
    𝑃 𝐵 𝐴)𝑃(𝐴)
    𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 =
    𝑃(𝐵)
    Bayes Theorem
    • We can relate P(A|B) and P(B|A) through
    Bayes’ rule:
    𝑃 𝐵 𝐴)𝑃(𝐴)
    𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 =
    𝑃(𝐵)

    Posterior
    Probability
    Likelihood Prior
    Normalizing Probability
    Constant
    Bayes Theorem
    • We can relate P(A|B) and P(B|A) through
    Bayes’ rule:
    𝑃 𝐵 𝐴)𝑃(𝐴)
    𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 =
    𝑃(𝐵)
    • 𝑃 𝐵 can be eliminated with law of total
    probability:
    𝑃 𝐵 = σ𝑗 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴𝑗 𝑃(𝐴𝑗 )
    The four attendants of gasoline service station are supposed to wash the windshield of
    customers’ car. Jack, who services 20% of all cars, fails to wash the windshield one
    time in 20; Tom, who services 60% of all cars, fails to wash the windshield one time in
    10; George who services 15% of all cars, fails to wash the windshield one time in 10;
    and Peter, who services 5% of all cars, fails to wash the windshield one time in 20. If a
    customer complains later that the windshield was not washed, what is the probability
    that her car was serviced by Jack?

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