Module No. 05 Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning

Module No.
05
Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning
Uncertainty
• Uncertainty can be defined as many of the simplifications that are possible
with deductive inference are no longer valid.
• Uncertainty is unavoidable in everyday reasoning and in many real-world
domains.
Sources of uncertainty
• Imprecise knowledge: For example, the time that an event happened can
be known only approximately.
• Unreliable knowledge: For example, a measuring instrument can be biased
or defective.
Reasons for uncertainty
1. Laziness
2. Theoretical Ignorance
3. Practical Ignorance
Probability theory
1.1 Uncertain knowledge
p symptom(p, Toothache)  disease(p,cavity)
p sympt(p,Toothache) 
disease(p,cavity)  disease(p,gum_disease) …
p disease(p,cavity)  Symptom(p, toothache)
- Laziness
- theoretical ignorance
- practical ignorance
• Probability theory  degree of belief or plausibility of a statement – a numerical
measure in [0,1]
• Degree of truth – fuzzy logic  degree of belief
Definitions
• Unconditional or prior probability of A – the degree of belief in A in the absence of
any other information – P(A)
• A – random variable
• Probability distribution – P(A), P(A,B)
Example
P(Weather = Sunny) = 0.1
P(Weather = Rain) = 0.7
P(Weather = Snow) = 0.2
Weather – random variable
P(cavity=true)= 0.2 P(cavity=false)=0.2
• P(Weather) = (0.1, 0.7, 0.2) – probability dsitribution

• Conditional probability – posterior – once the agent has obtained some evidence B
for A - P(A|B)
• P(Cavity | Toothache) = 0.8
Definitions - cont
• Axioms of probability
• The measure of the occurrence of an event (random variable)
A – a function P:S  R satisfying the axioms:
• 0  P(A)  1
• P(S) = 1 ( or P(true) = 1 and P(false) = 0)
• P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B)
• Above three axioms are also called as Kolmogorov’s axioms
P(A  ~A) = P(A)+P(~A) –P(false) = P(true)

P(~A) = 1 – P(A)
Product rule
Conditional probabilities can be defined in terms of
unconditional probabilities
The condition probability of the occurrence of A if
event B occurs
– P(A|B) = P(A  B) / P(B)
This can be written also as:
– P(A  B) = P(A|B) * P(B)
For probability distributions
– P(A=a1  B=b1) = P(A=a1|B=b1) * P(B=b1)
– P(A=a1  B=b2) = P(A=a1|B=b2) * P(B=b2) ….
– P(X,Y) = P(X|Y)*P(Y)
Bayes Theorem
hi – hypotheses (i=1,k);
e1,…,en - evidence
P(hi)
P(hi | e1,…,en)
P(e1,…,en| hi)
P(e1 ,e2 ,...,e n |h i )  P(h i )
P(h i |e1 ,e2 ,...,e n ) = k
, i = 1, k
 P(e1 ,e2 ,...,e n |h j )  P(h j )
j 1
Bayes’ Theorem - cont
• If e1,…,en are independent hypotheses then
P(e1 , e 2 ,..., e n | h j ) = P(e1 | h j )  P(e 2 | h j )  ...  P(e n | h j ), j = 1, k

Inferences
Probability distribution P(Cavity, Tooth)
Toothache  Toothache
Cavity 0.04 0.06
 Cavity 0.01 0.89
P(Cavity) = 0.04 + 0.06 = 0.1

P(Cavity  Tooth) = 0.04 + 0.01 + 0.06 = 0.11
P(A|B) = P(A  B) / P(B)
P(Cavity | Tooth) = P(Cavity  Tooth) / P(Tooth) = 0.04 /
0.05
Inferences
Probability distributions P(Cavity, Tooth, Catch)

P(Cavity) = 0.108 + 0.012 + 0.72 + 0.008 = 0.2
P(Cavity  Tooth) = 0.108 + 0.012 + 0.072 + 0.008 +
0.016
+ 0.064 = 0.28
P(Cavity | Tooth) = P(Cavity  Tooth) / P(Tooth) =
[P(Cavity  Tooth  Catch) + P(Cavity  Tooth  ~
Catch)] * / P(Tooth)
Bayesian networks
• Represent dependencies among random variables
• Give a short specification of conditional probability
distribution
• Many random variables are conditionally
independent
• Simplifies computations
• Graphical representation
• DAG – causal relationships among random variables
• Allows inferences based on the network structure
Definition of Bayesian networks
A BN is a DAG in which each node is annotated with
quantitative probability information, namely:
• Nodes represent random variables (discrete or
continuous)
• Directed links XY: X has a direct influence on Y, X is
said to be a parent of Y
• each node X has an associated conditional probability
table, P(Xi | Parents(Xi)) that quantify the effects of
the parents on the node
Example: Weather, Cavity, Toothache, Catch

• Weather, Cavity  Toothache, Cavity  Catch
Bayesian network - example
P(A|B) = P(A|B,E) *P(E|B) + P(A| B,E)*P(E|B)

= P(A|B,E) *P(E) + P(A| B,E)*P(E)
= 0.95 * 0.002 + 0.94 * 0.998 = 0.94002

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Module No.

p disease(p,cavity)  Symptom(p, toothache)

• P(Weather) = (0.1, 0.7, 0.2) – probability dsitribution

• Above three axioms are also called as Kolmogorov’s axioms

P(A  ~A) = P(A)+P(~A) –P(false) = P(true)

• If e1,…,en are independent hypotheses then

P(e1 , e 2 ,..., e n | h j ) = P(e1 | h j )  P(e 2 | h j )  ...  P(e n | h j ), j = 1, k

P(Cavity) = 0.04 + 0.06 = 0.1

Probability distributions P(Cavity, Tooth, Catch)

Example: Weather, Cavity, Toothache, Catch

P(A|B) = P(A|B,E) P(E|B) + P(A| B,E)P(E|B)

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