Introduction to AI

Chapter-5 Uncertain Knowledge and Reasoning

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 Reasoning
under
uncertainty
Topics

Planning

Quantifying
Uncertainty

Probabilistic
Reasoning

Probabilistic
Reasoning
over Time

Making
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Simple
Decisions
Logic and Uncertainty

• Major problem with logical-agent approaches:

• Agents almost never have access to the whole truth
about their environments.

• Very often, even in simple worlds, there are important

questions for which there is no Boolean answer.
• In that case, an agent must reason under uncertainty.

• Uncertainty also arises because of an agent’s

incomplete or incorrect understanding of its
environment.

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Logic and Uncertainty
Uncertainty is Bad for Agents based on Logic
Example: Catching a Flight
Let action At = leave for airport t minutes before flight
Question: Will At get me there on time?
Problems:
• Partial observability (road state, other drivers' plans, etc.)
• Noisy sensors (traffic reports)
• Uncertainty in action outcomes (flat tire, etc.)
• Complexity of modeling and predicting traffic

A purely logical approach leads to conclusions that are too

weak for effective decision making:
• A25 will get me there on time if there is no accident on the
bridge and it doesn't rain and my tires remain intact, etc., etc.
• AInf guarantees to get there in time, but who lives forever?
Reasoning under Uncertainty
• A rational agent is one that makes rational decisions
(in order to maximize its performance measure)
• A rational decision depends on:
• the relative importance of various goals
• the likelihood they will be achieved
• the degree to which they will be achieved

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Sources of Uncertainty

Probabilistic assertions summarize effects of

• failure to enumerate exceptions,

Laziness qualifications, etc.

• lack of explicit theories, relevant

Ignorance facts, observability, etc.

Randomness • Inherently random behavior

Planning- Making Decisions under Uncertainty
Probabilities: Suppose the agent believes the following:
𝑃(𝐴25 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑚𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒) = 0.04
𝑃(𝐴90 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑚𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒) = 0.80
𝑃(𝐴120 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑚𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒) = 0.99
𝑃(𝐴1440 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑚𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒) = 0.9999

Which action should the agent choose?

• Depends on preferences for missing flight vs. time spent waiting

The agent should choose the action that maximizes the expected utility:
𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑚𝑎𝑥𝐴𝑡 [ 𝑷(𝑨𝒕 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒆𝒅𝒔) 𝑼(𝑨𝒕 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒆𝒅𝒔) +
𝑷(𝑨𝒕 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒔) 𝑼(𝑨𝒕 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒔) ]

• Utility theory is used to represent and infer preferences.

• Decision theory = probability theory + utility theory
Quantifying Uncertainty- Degrees of Belief
• In several real-world domains the agent’s
knowledge can only provide a degree of belief in
the relevant sentences
• The main tool for handling degrees of belief is
Probability Theory

• The use of probability summarizes the uncertainty

that stems from our laziness or ignorance about the
domain

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Probability Theory
• Probability Theory makes the same ontological
commitments as First-order Logic:
• Every sentence Ꝕ is either true or false

• The degree of belief that Ꝕ is true is a number P

between 0 and 1
• P(Ꝕ) = 1 −→ Ꝕ is certainly true
• P(Ꝕ) = 0 −→ Ꝕ is certainly not true.
• P(Ꝕ) = 0.65 −→ Ꝕ is true with a 65% chance

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Random variables
We describe the (uncertain) Just like variables in CSP’s,
state of the world using random variables take on
random variables values in a domain D
• Denoted by capital letters • Domain values must be mutually
exclusive and exhaustive

• R: Is it raining? • R ∈ {True, False}

• W: What’s the weather? • W ∈ {Sunny, Cloudy, Rainy, Snow}
• Die: What is the outcome of rolling • Die ∈ {(1,1), (1,2), … (6,6)}
two dice?
• V: What is the speed of a car (in • V ∈ [0, 200]
MPH)?

A random variable is a function that maps from the domain of possible

worlds 𝛀 (called sample space) to the real numbers 𝑹 written as
𝑋: Ω → 𝑅
 Events and Propositions

Probabilistic statements are defined over Events are described using

events, world states or sets of states propositions:
• “It is raining” • R = True
• “The weather is either cloudy or • W = “Cloudy”  W =
snowy” “Snowy”
• “The sum of the two dice rolls is 11” • D  {(5,6), (6,5)}
• “My car is going between 30 and 50 • 30  S  50
miles per hour”

Notation:
• For random variables: P(X = x), or P(x) for short, is the
probability of the event that random variable X has taken on
the value x.
• For propositions: P(A = true), P(a) is the probability of the set
of possible worlds in which proposition A holds.
Axioms of Probability
Probability Theory is governed by the following axioms:
1. All probabilities are real values between 0 and 1:
for all Ꝕ, 0 ≤ P(Ꝕ) ≤ 1
2. Valid propositions have probability 1
P(True) = P( ⍺ ∨ ￢ ⍺) = 1
3. The probability of disjunction is defined as follows:
P(⍺ ∨ 𝛽) = P(⍺) + P(𝛽) − P(⍺ ∧ 𝛽 )
Atomic events
• Atomic event: a complete specification of the state
of the world, or a complete assignment of domain
values to all random variables

• Atomic events are mutually exclusive and

exhaustive

• E.g., if the world consists of only two Boolean

variables Cavity and Toothache, then there are 4
distinct atomic events:
Cavity = false Toothache = false
Cavity = false  Toothache = true
Cavity = true  Toothache = false
Cavity = true  Toothache = true
Joint probability distributions
• A joint distribution is an assignment of probabilities to every
possible atomic event
Atomic event P
Cavity = false Toothache = false 0.8
Cavity = false  Toothache = true 0.1
Cavity = true  Toothache = false 0.05
Cavity = true  Toothache = true 0.05

• We use for the joint probability distribution the notation

P(Cavity, Toothache)
• The probabilities of all possible atomic events sum to 1.
 Marginal probability distributions

• Sometimes we are only interested in one variable.

This is called the marginal distribution P(Y)
P(Cavity, Toothache)
Cavity = false Toothache = false 0.8
Cavity = false  Toothache = true 0.1
Cavity = true  Toothache = false 0.05
Cavity = true  Toothache = true 0.05
Prob. Distr.

P(Cavity) P(Toothache)
Marginal

Cavity = false ? Toothache = false ?

Cavity = true ? Toothache = true ?
Marginal probability distributions

• Suppose we have the joint distribution P(X,Y) and

we want to find the marginal distribution P(Y)

𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥 ∧ 𝑌 = 𝑦1 ) ∨ ⋯ ∨ (𝑋 = 𝑥 ∧ 𝑌 = 𝑦𝑛 )
𝑛

= 𝑃 (𝑥, 𝑦1 ) ∨ ⋯ ∨ (𝑥, 𝑦𝑛 ) = ෍ 𝑃(𝑥, 𝑦𝑖 )

𝑖=1

• General rule: to find P(X = x), sum the probabilities

of all atomic events where X = x. This is called
“summing out” or marginalization.
 Marginal probability distributions

• Suppose we have the joint distribution P(X,Y) and

we want to find the marginal distribution P(Y)
P(Cavity, Toothache)
Cavity = false Toothache = false 0.8
Cavity = false  Toothache = true 0.1
Cavity = true  Toothache = false 0.05
Cavity = true  Toothache = true 0.05
Prob. Distr.

P(Cavity) P(Toothache)
Marginal

Cavity = false 0.8+0.1 = 0.9 Toothache = false 0.8+0.0.5= 0.85

Cavity = true 0.05+0.05=0.1 Toothache = true 0.1+0.05= 0.15
Conditional probability

• Probability of cavity given toothache:

P(Cavity = true | Toothache = true)
𝑃(𝑎∧𝑏) 𝑃(𝑎,𝑏)
• For any two events a and b, 𝑃(𝑎|𝑏) = =
𝑃(𝑏) 𝑃(𝑏)

P(a  b)

P(a) P(b)
Conditional probability 𝑃(𝑎 ∧ 𝑏)
𝑃(𝑎|𝑏) =
𝑃(𝑏)
P(Cavity, Toothache)
Joint Prob. Distr.

Cavity = false Toothache = false 0.8

Cavity = false  Toothache = true 0.1
Cavity = true  Toothache = false 0.05
Cavity = true  Toothache = true 0.05

P(Cavity) P(Toothache)
Prob. Distr.
Marginal

Cavity = false 0.9 Toothache = false 0.85

Cavity = true 0.1 Toothache = true 0.15

• What is P(Cavity = true | Toothache = false)?

0.05 / 0.85 = 0.059
• What is P(Cavity = false | Toothache = true)?
0.1 / 0.15 = 0.667
 Conditional distributions 𝑃(𝑎|𝑏) =
𝑃(𝑎 ∧ 𝑏)
𝑃(𝑏)

P(Cavity, Toothache)
Cavity = false Toothache = false 0.8
Cavity = false  Toothache = true 0.1
Cavity = true  Toothache = false 0.05
Cavity = true  Toothache = true 0.05

A conditional distribution is a distribution over the values of one

variable given fixed values of other variables
P(Cavity | Toothache = true) P(Cavity | Toothache = false)
Cavity = false 0.667 Cavity = false 0.941
Cavity = true 0.333 Cavity = true 0.059

P(Toothache | Cavity = true) P(Toothache | Cavity = false)

Toothache= false 0.5 Toothache= false 0.889
Toothache = true 0.5 Toothache = true 0.111
Bayes’ Rule

• The product rule gives us two ways to factor a

joint distribution:
𝑃 𝐴, 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 𝑃(𝐴)
Posterior Prob. Prior Prob.
𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 𝑃(𝐴)
• Therefore, 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵) Rev. Thomas Bayes
(1702-1761)

• Why is this useful?

• Can get diagnostic probability P(cavity | toothache)
from causal probability P(toothache | cavity)
• We can update our beliefs based on evidence.
• Important tool for probabilistic inference .
Example: Getting Married in the Desert

Marie is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in

the desert. In recent years, it has rained only 5 days each year
(5/365 = 0.014). Unfortunately, the weatherman has
predicted rain for tomorrow. When it actually rains, the
weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90% of the time. When it
doesn't rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 10% of the time.
What is the probability that it will rain on Marie's wedding?

𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)
Example: Getting Married in the Desert
Marie is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in
the desert. In recent years, it has rained only 5 days each year
(5/365 = 0.014). Unfortunately, the weatherman has
predicted rain for tomorrow. When it actually rains, the
weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90% of the time. When it
doesn't rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 10% of the time.
What is the probability that it will rain on Marie's wedding?

𝑃(Predict|Rain)𝑃(Rain)
𝑃(Rain|Predict) =
𝑃(Predict)
𝑃(Predict|Rain)𝑃(Rain)
=
𝑃(Predict|Rain)𝑃(Rain) + 𝑃(Predict|¬Rain)𝑃(¬Rain)
0.9 ∗ 0.014
= = 0.111
0.9 ∗ 0.014 + 0.1 ∗ 0.986
The weather forecast updates
our belief from 0.014 to 0.111
Example: Breast Cancer Screening

• 1% of women at age forty who participate in

routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of
women with breast cancer will get positive
mammography. 9.6% of women without breast
cancer will also get positive mammography. A
woman in this age group had a positive
mammography in a routine screening. What is the
probability that she actually has breast cancer?
Example: Breast Cancer Screening
1% of women at age forty who participate in routine
screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast
cancer will get positive mammography. 9.6% of women
without breast cancer will also get positive mammography. A
woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a
routine screening. What is the probability that she actually
has breast cancer?
𝑃(Positive|Cancer)𝑃(Cancer)
𝑃(Cancer|Positive) =
𝑃(Positive)
𝑃(Positive|Cancer)𝑃(Cancer)
=
𝑃(Positive|Cancer)𝑃(Cancer) + 𝑃(Positive|¬Cancer)𝑃(¬Cancer)
0.8 ∗ 0.01
= = 0.0776
0.8 ∗ 0.01 + 0.096 ∗ 0.99

The positive test updates our

belief from 0.01 to 0.0776