STAT1122 Biostatistics

Assignment 2
DUE DATE: FRIDAY OF WEEK 12 by 4pm
• The Due Date for Assignment 2 is Friday of Week 12 by 4pm. This assignment must be submitted
electronically using the Assignment 2 Link on FLO provided under Week 12. The Cut-Off date is
Friday of Week 14 at 4pm. Late penalties will apply for each day after the Due Date (refer back
to the Statement of Assessment Method [SAM] for full details).

• You must use Turnitin for this assignment. Submission without using Turnitin will be awarded
with no marks. Hard copy submission or submission by email will not be accepted.

• Weighting: This assignment (out of 50 marks) comprises a total of 4 questions with multiple
parts and is worth 15% of your final assessment mark.

Instructions:

• You MUST comply with Academic Integrity as indicated on the electronic submission. Please
note that this is an INDIVIDUAL assignment, not a group assignment. Inappropriate
collaboration will be penalised.

• Your submission should contain one (1) file in PDF format with size no bigger than 20 MB.

• You can update your submission in Turnitin for unlimited number of times before the Due Date.

• Refer to the SAM pdf document on FLO regarding late assignment penalties.

• Medical extension or extension due to compassionate ground may be granted. Only applications
with legitimate reasons will be considered.

• Keep a copy of the submission yourself.

Writing Up Your Assignment:

• Answer all questions in this assignment. Questions should be answered in the order they appear.

• MS-Word (or other typesetting software of your choice) may be used in preparing your
assignment submission whenever appropriate which would then being converted to pdf.

• You may use any of the tools that you have been shown to assist with calculations/graphing.

• Answers must be written in clear English sentences with all appropriate working and/or
supporting computer output shown.

• Raw computer output without explanatory text is unacceptable.

• All workings and intermediate answers must be clearly shown

2022 STAT1122 Biostatistics Assignment 2_v1 1

Question 1 – Probability [Total: 15 marks]

A gumball machine located near David Jones at the Marion Shopping Centre in Adelaide contains
1568 gumballs. It is filled monthly with America's original Dubble Bubble Gumballs. Each gumball is
approximately 2cm in diameter. The original gumballs have a solid colour coating and come in 8
flavours; strawberry, pineapple, blueberry, lemon-lime, orange, cherry, banana and grape. However,
the machine also contains Berry Blast Speckled Dubble Bubble Gumballs (and as the name suggests
have a speckled or mottled coating).
The colours/flavours/coatings in the machine in this particular week are: strawberry (solid red
coating), Blueberry (solid blue coating), banana (solid yellow coating), orange (solid orange coating),
strawberry (speckled red coating), lemon (speckled yellow coating) and blueberry (speckled blue
coating). Six hundred and ninety are speckled and 36.224% are yellow. Of the red ones, 198 have a
solid colour coating and 201 are speckled. There are 344 blue solid coated gumballs. Only 3.316% are
banana flavoured.
A child inserts a coin into the gumball machine to obtain a single gumball at random.
What is the probability of the following events?
Hint: A cross tabulation or contingency table can help.

I. What is the probability that the child randomly selects a gumball that is strawberry
flavoured and is speckled? [1.5 marks]
II. What is the probability that the child randomly selects a gumball with a solid colour coating
or one that is flavoured as blueberry? [1.5 marks]
III. What is the probability that the blueberry flavoured gumball chosen by the child at random
turns out to be speckled? [1.5 marks]
IV. What is the probability that the child randomly obtains a strawberry flavoured gumball?
[1.5 marks]
V. What is the probability that the child randomly selects a banana flavoured gumball?
[1.5 marks]
VI. What is the probability that the child randomly selects a gumball that is blueberry flavoured
given that it is speckled? [1.5 marks]
VII. What is the probability that the child randomly obtains a speckled gumball? [1.5 marks]
VIII. Are the events “blueberry flavoured” and “speckled” independent? Demonstrate this
appropriately. Then provide a brief description of what independence refers to in this specific
case. [4.5 marks]

Marking Criteria for Question 1:

You need to demonstrate understanding of the probability concepts involved in each part of this
question and how to make appropriate interpretations of each numerical answer. Thus, for full marks
you need to show all workings (including the equation used with correct notation) AND provide a
very brief relevant written statement interpreting the answer to the question (so place the numerical
answer into a correct full statement showing you understand what it means).

No marks awarded for the correct answer without working out or explanation of how the answer
was determined.

2022 STAT1122 Biostatistics Assignment 2_v1 2

Question 2 – Binomial probability models [Total: 10 marks]

I. What are the 4 key assumptions that must be satisfied in order to correctly use the binomial
probability distribution to answer the questions below. Give examples for each using the
scenarios below to justify your answer. [2 marks]

Scenario 1: A young driver is about to sit a 25-question multiple choice test for their driver’s licence.
They did not study for this particular test and hope to randomly guess the correct answer for each
question without considering which choices would be more correct than others. They are quite hopeful
given that there are only 3 choices to choose from for each question and that only one choice is exactly
correct.

II. If this particular young driver blindly guesses the answer to each question, what is the
probability that they will get only 15 questions correct? Let X be the total number of correct
answers. X has a binomial distribution: ~Bin(n,p) [2 marks]

III. If this particular young driver blindly guesses the answer to each question, what is the
probability that they will get at least 19 questions correct? Let X be the total number of correct
answers. X has a binomial distribution: ~Bin(n,p) [2 marks]

Scenario 2: A pet female bunny (doe) has just delivered a litter of 8 kits. The sex of each kit is random
and equally likely. Each kit’s sex is independent of the previous and of the next.

IV. What is the probability that the doe delivers more than 6 female kits? Let Y be the total
number of female kits. Y has a binomial distribution: ~Bin(n,p) [2 marks]

V. What is the probability that the doe’s litter is half male? Let Y be the total number of male
kits. Y has a binomial distribution: ~Bin(n,p) [2 marks]

Marking Criteria for Question 2:

You may use any of the tools that you have been shown to determine the necessary probabilities. For
full marks, you need to demonstrate understanding of the probability concepts involved in each part
of this question, so provide workings or explanation of how the answer was determined, as well as a
very brief relevant written statement interpreting the answer to the question (so place the numerical
answer into a correct full statement showing you understand what it means).

No marks awarded for the correct answer without working out or explanation of how the answer
was determined.

2022 STAT1122 Biostatistics Assignment 2_v1 3

Question 3 – Normal probability models [Total: 10 marks]

You want to go to Mt Hotham for

snowboarding sometime in the July-
August season (defined as the days
inclusive of July-August only), as you can
see that the peak in “days with significant
snowfall” occurs across these 2 months.

The number of ‘predominant snowfall’

days (defined when snowfall is ≥ 5 cm) in
the days of July-August varies according
to a Normal distribution with a mean of
30 days of snowfall across that particular
period and standard deviation of 5 days.

I. If you were to choose a year at random, what is the probability that the year you choose has
less than 15 days of predominant snowfall across July-August period? [1.5 marks]

II. What is the proportion of years where July-August’s snowfall falls between 10 and 20 days?
[1.5 marks]

III. What is the proportion of years where July-August’s snowfall is greater than 40 days?
[1.5 marks]

IV. Considering the 50% snowiest July-August seasons, up to what number of days of
predominant snow (≥ 5 cm) would these snowiest July-August seasons receive? [2.5 marks]

Accompany each of the answers above with a shaded in density curve to demonstrate your
understanding of the question. You can draw, copy and paste these images OR use software. [3 marks]

Marking Criteria for Question 3:

You may use any of the tools that you have been shown to determine the necessary probabilities.
For full marks, you need to demonstrate understanding of the probability concepts involved in each
part of this question, so provide a density curve, workings (the calculation of relevant z-scores and
probabilities) as well as a very brief relevant written statement interpreting the answer to the
question (so place the numerical answer into a correct full statement showing you understand what
it means).

No marks awarded for the correct answer without working out or explanation of how the answer
was determined.

2022 STAT1122 Biostatistics Assignment 2_v1 4

Question 4 – Statistical Inference: Hypothesis testing and estimation [Total: 15 marks]

A recent survey of 3098 employees of a global HR company were asked at random whether they
were satisfied or unsatisfied with the office equipment that the company supplied. Two thousand
and three employees reported to be satisfied with the supplied office equipment.

I. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the (population) proportion of employees surveyed and
felt satisfied with their office equipment. What does this indicate? Write an appropriate
contextual statement. [4 marks]

II. It has previously been reported that the typical rate of employee satisfaction of office
equipment is 3:1, that is for every 3 employees that are satisfied there is 1 employee that is
not satisfied. Test the claim that the rate of employee satisfaction significantly differs from
this ratio. Use all steps for hypothesis testing to make a conclusion at a significance level
(alpha) of 5%. [9 marks]
HINT: Write an appropriate contextual statement at STEP 6.

III. What assumptions or conditions are made when conducting these statistical inference tests
above? Are they being satisfied? If so or if not, you must demonstrate these assumptions.
[2 marks]

Marking Criteria for Question 4:

Show all working out. For full marks, you need to demonstrate understanding of the statistical
inference concepts involved in each part of this question as well as a relevant written statement
with a brief appropriate interpretation at the end of each question.

No marks awarded for the correct answer without working out or explanation of how the answer
was determined.

End of Assignment 2

2022 STAT1122 Biostatistics Assignment 2_v1 5