PTSPUNITI Questions&Answers

GRIETECE 1
UNIT -1

1. Explain about the partition of a sampling space theorem?
Ans:
PARTITIONS OF A SAMPLE SPACE
The events B1
,
B2
.
B
K
represent a partition of the sample space 'S" if

(a)


So, when the experiment E is performed whose sample is S,
one and only one of the events B
i
occurs

Let A be some event with respect to S and let B
1
, B
2

.B
K
be a partition of S.
We may write


Even though some of the sets of A n Bj may be empty, this does not invalidate the above
decomposition of A.

Here, the important consideration is that all the events A n Bj , An B
2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
An B
K
are
pair wise mutually exclusive.
Hence, using the addition law of probability,
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P(A) = P(An B j) + P ( A n B
2
) + + P( AnB
K
)
From the definition of conditional probability,


Hence,


This is referred to as Theorem on Total probability.
Here, the event A corresponds to B
1
, B
2
.Bn
In other words, A
n
event A must result in one of the mutually exclusive events

B
1
, B
2
.Bn



2. Explain about Bayes Theorem?
Ans:
Let B
1
, B
2
.Bn are mutually exclusive events whose union is the sample space is S, i.e.
B
1 ,
B
2
. B
n
are the partitions of the sample space S i.e. at least one of the events must
occur.

Then if A is any event or an event A corresponds to a number of exhaustive events
B
1 ,

B
2 B n .
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Where i = 1, 2 ......... n
This result is known as Baye's Theorem.
This enables us to find the probabilities of the various events B
1
,B
2
Bn that can cause A
to occur.

Since B
i
's are a partition of the sample space, one only one of the events B occurs, i.e. one
of the events B
t
must occur and only one can occur.
Hence, the above expression gives the probability of a particular B
i
, i.e. a cause, given
that the event A has occurred.
Hence, Baye's theorem is also called the formula for the probability of causes or theorem
on e probability of causes.
Proof:
By the law of multiplication of probability





Since the event A corresponds to B
1
,B
2
Bn
,
by using the theorem on total probability,





Therefore

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The probabilities P (B
i
), J = 1 , 2 . . . n are called a prior probabilities, since these exist
before we get any information from the experiment.

The probabilities P(
A
B
) , i=1, 2 n are called Posteriori probabilities, because, these are
found after the experiment results are known.


3. Explain the axioms of probability and the theorem of total probability?
Ans:
AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY
Let E be an experiment. Let 5 be a sample space associated with E. We associate a real
number with each events, designated by P(A) and is called the probability of A satisfying the
following properties.
1. 0 < P(A) < 1
2. P(S) = 1
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, P(A u B) = P(A) + P(B)

For any number of mutually exclusive events A
l
, A
2
, A
3
(i.e. they are pair wise
mutually exclusive events), then P (A
1
u A
2
u A
3
....... ) = P (A
1
) + P (A
2
) + P (A
3
)
+
The above are also referred to as Axioms of probability.
ADDITION LAW OF PROBAILITY OR THEORM OF TOTAL PROBAILITY
It can be stated as
"If the probability of an event happening as a result of a trial is P(A) and the probability of
a mutually exclusive event B happening is P(B), then the probability of either of the events
happening as a result of the trail is P(A + B) or P(AuB) = P(A) + P(B)."
Proof;
Let i be the total number of equally likely cases and let J
1
be favorable to the event A and J
2

be favorable to the event B.
Then the number of cases favorable to A or B is J
1
+ J
2
Hence, the probability of A or B happening, as a result of the trial is
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If the events A and B are not mutually exclusive, then, there are some outcomes while both A
and B. If J
3
be their number, then these are included in both J
1
and J
2.


Hence, the total number of
outcomes favoring either A or B or both is
J
1
+ J
2
-J
3
Thus, the probability P (A + B) or P (A u B) of occurrence of A and B or both



P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (AB)
or P (A u B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A n B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive.
P (A n B) = P (AB) = 0
Therefore P (A + B) = P (A u B) = P (A) + P (B)



4. Explain about multiplication law of probability or theorem of
compound probability?
Ans:
THEOREM OF COMPOUND PROBABILITY
It can be stated as
"If the probability of an event A happening as a result of a trail is P (A), and after A has
happened, the probability of an event B happening as a result of another trial is P (B/A),
then the probability of both the events A and B happening as a result of two trials is P (A
B) or P (AnB) = P (A) . P (B/A)
Proof: Let i be the total number of outcomes in the first trial and j be favorable to the event A,
So that
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P (A) = [i
Let i
1
be the total number of outcomes in the second trial of which J
1
are favorable to the event B,
so that

P (B) =
]1
1

So, the total number of outcomes in the combined trial is "i i
1
". Of these, JJ
1
are favorable
to both the events A and B.
P (AB)
or P ( A n B ) =


Similarly, the condition probability of A, given B is P(A/B)
Therefore P(AB)
or P ( A n B ) = P(B) .P(A/B)

The above two conditional probabilities i.e. P(A/B) and P(B/A) are defined for the dependent events A
and B.

In general,
P(A
1
A
2
A
3
A
4
A
5
..A
n
)=P(A
1
n A
2
n A
3
n A
4
...)
= P( A
1
) P( A
2
) P( A
3
). P( A
n
)
If P
1
and P
2
are the probabilities of happening of two independent events, then
1. The probability that the first event happens and the second fails is P
1
(1 P
2
)
2. Probability that both events fail to happen is (1 P
1
)(1 - P
2
)
3. The probability that at least one of the events happens is 1 (1 P
1
)(1 P2).
4. This is known as their cumulative probability.

5. Explain about permutations, combinations and ordered samples?
Ans:
PERMUTATIONS:
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Arrangement of things in a specified order is called permutation. Here all things are taken
at a time.
Arrangement of things in a specified order is called permutation. Here all things are taken
at a time.
E x : Consider the letters a , b and c . Considering all the three letters at a time, the
possible permutations are A B C , a c b , b c a , b a c , c b a and c a b .
Arrangement of r things taken at a time from n things ,where r < n in a specified
order in called r-permutation.
E x : From the three letters a , b and c , the possible 2-permutations i.e., 2 letters taken
at a time
are ab, b a , a c , c a , b e , c b .
The above computation is direct computation. Now we apply the counting technique.
Consider the permutations considering all the three letters at a time.
The first letter can be selected in three different ways. Following this, the second letter can
be selected in two different ways. Following this, the 3
r d
letter can be selected in only
one way. Let the three letter word be represented as




The possible ways
of selecting the letters is

Thus, the possible No. of permutations are 3. 2. 1 = 6. Now, consider 2-permutation.

Therefore the possible No. of permutations is 3. 2 = 6

The number of permutations taking V things at a time from n available things is denoted
as
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p ( n , r ) or n p r

COMBINATIONS
In permutations, the order of arrangement of objects is important. But, in combinations,
order is not important, but only selection of objects.

For example, a b c , b c a , c a b are different permutations but only one combination of 3
letters a , b and c.
The possible number of combinations of n objects, taken r at a time is denoted by C ( n ,
r ) o r n C
r
Consider 3 letters a , b and c. The possible combinations taking two at a time are a b ,
b a , a c , c a , b c , c b . Thus, the number of permutations is equal to the number of
combinations multiplied by 2 !
P (n , r)= n P
r
= r ! n C
r

= r ! n C
r

n C
r
= P ( n , r ) / r ! = n ! / r ! ( n - r ) !
Ordered Samples
From a group of n -objects, if objects are selected one after another, say K times, this
selection is referred to as an ordered sample of size K . In this, there are two cases.
1. Sampling with Replacement:
If the selected object is replaced before the selection of next object, it is the sampling with
replacement. Now, each object can be selected in V different ways, the possible number of
different ordered samples of size K are n . n . n . n . n . n . n ( K times) = n K
2 . Sampling without Replacement:
Here the selected object is not replaced before the selection of next object. Then, the first
object can be selected in 'n' different ways, the second in ( n - 1) ways and so on. Thus, the
ordered sample of size K without replacement is the K-permutation of n-objects. Then, the
possible different ordered samples of size K is

nP
K
=
n!
(n-K)!


6. Explain the various terminologies associated with probability theory?
Ans:
1. Sample Space
A sample space is a set 'S" that consists of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. Each
outcome is called a sample point.
Ex. If we toss a die, one sample space or the set of all possible outcomes is
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S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
The other sample space can be
S = {odd, even}
So, often there will be more than one sample space that can describe outcomes of an
experiment.
Hence, in order to describe a sample space associated with an experiment, we should have
a clear idea of what we are measuring or observing.

2. Finite Sample Space
Consider the experiment of tossing a coin
twice.
The sample space can be
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} the above sample space has a finite
number of sample points. It is called a finite sample space.


3. Countably Infinite Sample Space
Consider that a light bulb is manufactured. It is then tested for its life length by inserting it
into a socket and the time elapsed (in hours) until it burns out is recorded. Let the measuring
instrument is capable of recording time to two decimal places, for example 8.32 hours.
Now, the sample space becomes count ably infinite i.e.
S= {0.0, 0.01, 0.02 }
The above sample space is called a countable infinite sample space.
4. Event
An event is simply a set of possible outcomes. To be more specific, an event is a subset A
of the sample space S.
If the outcome of an experiment is an element of the subset A, we say that the event A
has occurred.
Sample space S is finite or countable infinite, every subset may be considered
(
as an
event.
Example:
Let A j be the event associated with the experiment
Let the sample space be S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A
1
: An even number occurs; i.e. A
1
= {2, 4, 6}
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An event consisting of a single point of the sample space 'S' is called a simple event or
elementary event.
A set of events is said to be exhaustive, if it includes all the possible events.
Ex. In tossing a coin, the outcome can be either Head or Tail and there is no other possible
outcome.
So, the set of events { H, T} is exhaustive.
5 Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events, A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur together.
i.e. if the occurrence of one of the events precludes the occurrence of all others, then such a
set of events is said to be mutually exclusive.
Ex. In tossing a die, both head and tail cannot happen at the same time.
6 Equally Likely Events
If one of the events cannot be expected to happen in preference to another, then such events
are said to be equally likely.
Ex. In tossing a coin, the coming of the head or the tail is equally likely.
7 Independent Events
Two events are said to be independent, if happening or failure of one does not affect the
happening or failure of the other.
Otherwise, the events are said to be dependent.
8 Relative Frequencies
Consider that an experiment E is repeated n times, and let A and B be two events associated
w i t h E. Let n
A
and n
B
be the number of times that the event A and the event B occurred
among the n repetitions respectively.
The relative frequency of the event A in the 'n' repetitions of E is defined as
f
A
= n
A
/n
The Relative frequency has the following properties:
1.0 f
A
1
2. f
A
=1 if and only if A occurs every time among the n repetitions.
3. f
A
=0 if and only if A never occurs among the n repetitions.

7.A class contains 9 boys and 3 girls.
(a) In how many ways can the teacher choose a committee of 4 ?
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(b) How many of them will contain atleast one girl ?
(c) How many of them will contain exactly one girl ?
Ans:

(a) Out of 12 members, teacher can select 4 members in 12C
4
=495
(b) atleast one girl means, among 4 members ,there can be 1 girl,3 boys or 2 girls,2 boys or
3 girls ,1 boy.
Therefore The no. of ways to contain at least one girl are
3C
1 .
9C
3
+3C2.9C
2
+3C
3 .
9C
1 =
369

(c) Exactly one girl means ,among 4 members ,there are 1 girl and 3 boys. Thus ,the no. of
ways

3C
3 .
9C
1
=252

8. A box contain 6 red balls , 4 white balls, and 5 blue balls .three balls
are drawn successively from the box. Find the probability that they are
drawn in the order red, white, and blue if each ball is (a)replaced (b)Not
replaced?
Ans:

P(first ball to be red)=6/15

P(second ball to be white)=4/15

P(three ball to be blue)=5/15

Therefore the required probability =(6/15)*(4/15)*(5/15)=120/3375


(b)
P (first ball to be red) = 6/15
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P (second ball to be white) =4/14

P (three ball to be blue) =5/13
Required probability (6/15)*(4/14)*(5/13)=120/2730

9.urn A contains 5 red marbles and 3 white marbles ,urn B contains 2 red
marbles and 6 white marbles .
(a) If a marble is drawn from each urn, what is the probability that they
are both of the same color?
(b)If two marbles are drawn from each urn, what is the probability that
all four marbles are of the same color ?
Ans:
(a)
P(selecting a red marbles from urn A) =5/8
P(selecting a white marbles from urn A) =3/8
P(selecting a red marbles from urn B) =2/8
P(selecting a white marbles from urn B) =6/8
P(Both marbles are of same color)=P(Both are red)+P(Both are white)
=(5/8)*(2/8)+(3/8)*(6/8)=7/16

(b)
P(Selecting 2 red marbles from urn A)=5C
2
/8C
2


P(Selecting 2 white marbles from urn A)=3C
2
/8C
2


P(Selecting 2 red marbles from urn B)=2C
2
/8C
2


P(Selecting 2 white marbles from urn B)=6C
2
/8C
2


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P(All the 4 are of same color)=( 5C
2
/8C
2
)*( 2C
2
/8C
2
)+( 3C
2
/8C
2
)*( 6C
2
/8C
2
)=

55/784

10.Explain in detail about counting technique ?
Ans:
COUNTING TECHNIQUE

These Techniques are also referred to as combinatorial Analysis. These techniques are used
for determining the number of outcomes of an experiment without direct enumeration i.e.,
counting.
The basic principle of counting is stated as "If one activity is performed in K
1
different
ways,and after this, a second activity is done in K
2
different ways, . . . etc., and finally the
n
th
activity in K
n
different ways, then all these 'n' activities can be performed in K
1
. K
2
. .
. K
n
different ways in the specified order

Ex: A person has 3 pens and 5 pencils. He has to select a pen and then a pencil. He can
select the pen in 3 different ways and then a pencil in 5 different ways. Thus, a pen and a pencil
can be selected in 3.5 = 15 different ways.
Now, we will consider the same example using direct enumeration or counting.
Let P1 , P
2
, P
3
be the 3 pens and Q
1
, Q
2
, Q
3
, Q
4
and Q
5
be the 5 pencils.
The different possible ways of selecting a pen and then a pencil are
(P
1
.Q
1
) , (P
1
, Q
2
) , (P
1
.Q
3
) , (P
1
.Q
4
), (P
1
.Q
5
) (P
2
.Q
1
), (P
2
.Q
2
). (P
2
.Q
3
) . (P
2
.Q
4
). (P
3
.Q
5
), (P
3
.Q
1
)
(P
3
.Q
2
). (P
3
.Q
3
), (P
3
.Q
4
)and (P
3
.Q
5
)

These are 15 different ways. Thus, combinatorial analysis can be used for counting,
without using direct counting.
A Tree diagram is used in connection with the principle of counting.
Consider the above example of selecting a pen and a pencil from 3 pens and 5 pencils. The
possible ways of selecting the required is shown using a Tree diagram as follows. Since, initially
a pen is to be selected and then a pencil, it is represented as
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If a pencil is to be selected first and then a pen, it is represented as



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