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GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY

This chapter looks at various concepts of demography including structure, dynamics, transition, and trends on a global scale. It
also examines how different demographic issues affect the international economy and the globalizing world.

Learning Objectives

After studying this chapter, you should be able to

1. Describe global demography

2. Define demography and the concept of population
3. Explain the structure and dynamics of Demography
4. Define population size
5. Analyze how population growth is measured and determine the population size and growth of countries in the
world
6. Describe the levels of demographic transition
7. Analyze the population processes including fertility, mortality, life expectancy and morbidity
8. Outline the factors affecting the population processes
9. Explain the concept of population distribution through urbanization and population density
10. Analyze the population structure including sex ratio, age structure, median age and age-dependency ratio, and
population pyramid
11. Describe the Malthusian Theory of Population
12. Argue on the positive and negative effects of population growth

Everyone is a member of a population, and population factors have an impact on many facets of life—from where we live to the
prices we pay for goods and services. The need for health care preoccupies the political leaders of the industrialized countries
whose populations are “aging,” while the need for classrooms, employment opportunities, and housing preoccupies the leaders of
countries that are still growing rapidly. Population conditions influence history. Likewise, historical events can significantly
affect populations. Wars can decimate a generation of men, as happened in the 20th century in the then-Soviet Union, France,
Iraq, and several other countries. The discovery of new medicines often leads to increases in life expectancy, and different causes
of death become more prominent. Alternatively, population change may sound a warning of other important changes.
Environmental contamination may be detected first by increased reports of illness and rising mortality rates in certain geographic
areas. In all these ways and more, population is news.

Definition of Global Demography

Global Demography is defined as the statistical of study of global population. The study of global demography is important to
understand the causes and consequences of human populations and trends of migration.
The UNICEF estimates that all around the world, an estimate of 353, 000 babies are born each year. That is an approximate of 4.3
babies being born in every second.

Most contemporary estimates indicate that the carrying capacity of the earth under existing conditions are between 4
– 16 billion. Depending on which estimate is human overpopulation may have already occurred.
In 1950, there were 2.5 billion people on the planet. Now in 2019, the world population is 7.7 billion as of October 2019
according to the most recent United Nations estimates. It reached 7 billion in 2012 and the new projection indicate that the 8-
billion mark will be reached by 2025. By the end of the century the UN expects the global population to be 11.2 billion.

Definition of Demography
 Demography has been defined as the scientific study of human populations. Often, study of the causes and
consequences of the growth, structure, and composition of populations is also considered part of demography. Much of
demography focuses on estimates and projections of the size and characteristics of the population and of the
components of population change.

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 Demographers seek to know the levels and trends in population size and its components. They search for explanations
of demographic change and their implications for societies. They use censuses, birth and death records, surveys, visa
records, even motor vehicle and school registrations. They shape these data into manageable forms such as simple
counts, rates, or ratios.

Demography: Historical Perspective

 It comes from the Greek Word Demos (people) and Graphy (branch of knowledge regarding a particular science in this
case, human populations).
 Guillard (1855) defined demography as: ‘the mathematical knowledge of populations, their general movements, and
their physical, civil, intellectual and moral state.

Dimensions of Demography

Dynamics (period of time). This pertains to the numerical changes of population (time-frame and place). These cover vital
statistics like births (natality), fertility, deaths (mortality), reproduction, and migration (immigration and emigration).

Structure (point of time). This refers to the status and characteristics of population (number and structure). This includes age,
sex, civil status, education level, income, households, family, urbanization, public utilities, information on the home and its
facilities, ethnicity, religion, etc.

The Concept of Population

Population is a group of individuals of same species living in the same geographic area at the same time.

A population is often defined by demographers according to the specific needs of the research and researcher. Three processes
are relevant to demography: Fertility, Mortality, and Migration

Today demography encompasses the determinants and consequences of population change and is concerned with virtually
everything that influences or can be influenced by:

A. Population Size
B. Population growth or decline
C. Population processes (levels and trends in mortality, fertility and migration that are determining population size and
change).
D. Population characteristics (education, religion, or ethnicity)
E. Population structure (how many by age)

A. POPULATION SIZE

Population size is the number of people in a country, a state, a city, a region, or the world at a given time

Population density refers to the number of individuals per unit area at a given time. Ovals below have same population, and
different densities.

Table 12.1
Top 10 Populous Countries in the World

Population
2050 Expected
Rank Country 2020 Population 2000 Population Growth %
Population 2000 - 2020
1 China 1,439,323,776 1,301,627,048 1,268,301,605 13.40%
2 India 1,380,004,385 1,656,553,632 1,006,300,297 37.10%

3 United States 331,002,651 398,328,349 282,162,411 17.30%

4 Indonesia 273,523,615 300,183,166 214,090,575 27.70%

5 Pakistan 220,892,340 290,847,790 152,429,036 44.90%
6 Brazil 212,559,417 232,304,177 174,315,386 21.90%

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7 Nigeria 206,139,589 391,296,754 123,945,463 66.30%

8 Bangladesh 164,689,383 193,092,763 128,734,672 27.90%

9 Russia 145,934,462 129,908,086 147,053,966 -0.80%

10 Mexico 128,932,753 150,567,503 99,775,434 29.20%
TOP TEN Countries 4,503,002,371 5,044,709,268 3,597,108,845 25.10%
Rest of the World 3,293,613,339 4,329,774,957 2,547,898,144 29.20%

TOTAL World Population 7,796,615,710 9,374,484,225 6,145,006,989 26.90%

https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats8.htm (from US Census Bureau website and also from the United Nations Populat Department) ion

Figure 12.1
World Map of Countries and Territories by Population in 2019

1,000+ million 200–1,000 million 100–200 million 75–100 million 50–75 million 25–50 million 10
–25
million 5–10 million <5 million No data / permanent population

Source: United Nations Statistics Division

The Philippines 2019 population is estimated at 108,116,615 people at mid-year according to UN data. The

Philippines population is equivalent to 1.4% of the total world population.

B. POPULATION GROWTH

Population growth or decline is the changes in the number of people in a given geographic area over time. Th growth ratee
is the rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing) in a given year due to natural increase an net migration, expressedd
as a percentage of the base population. The growth rate takes into account all componen of population growth: births, deaths,ts
and migration.

Calculating Annual Growth Rates

Annual growth rate is the percent change from one period to another is calculated from the formula:

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𝑉2 − 𝑉1
𝑃𝑅 = 𝑥100
𝑉1

where: V2 is the present population and V1 is the old population

Example

In 2000, the population in Nigeria was 124 million. This grew to 201 million in 2019. What is the annual percentage growth rate
for Nigeria? __________

Calculating Growth Rate

𝑟 = (𝑏 − 𝑑) + (𝑖 − 𝑒)

Growth rate = (Birth rate + death rate) + (immigration rate + emigration rate)

Change in Population size

Increase in population size = Birth rate and Immigration Decrease in

population size = death rate and emigration

The Demographic Transition

The demographic transition refers to the change that populations undergo from high rates of births and deaths to low rates of
births and deaths. Historically, high levels of births and deaths kept most populations from growing rapidly. In fact, many
populations not only failed to grow but also completely died out when birth rates did not compensate for high death rates. Death
rates eventually fell as living conditions and nutrition improved. The decline in mortality usually precedes the decline in fertility,
resulting in population growth during the transition period. In Europe and other industrialized countries, death rates dropped
slowly. With the added benefit of medical advances, death rates fell more rapidly in the countries that began the transition in the
20th century. Fertility rates fell neither as quickly nor as dramatically as death rates, and thus population grew rapidly.

Stages of Demographic Transition

To understand the variety of demographic trends found across the world, it is necessary to understand the history of
demographic change globally.

The demographic transition theory is a generalized description of the changing pattern of mortality, fertility and growth rates
as societies move from one demographic regime to another. The term was first coined by the American demographer Frank
W. Notestein in the mid-twentieth century, but it has since been elaborated and expanded upon by many others.

There are four stages to the classical demographic transition model:

1. Stage I or Pre-transition. This is characterized by high birth rates, and high fluctuating death rates. At this
stage, the death rates are also high due to insufficient diets and absence of adequate medical and sanitation
facilities. In this economy, the rate of growth of population is not high as high birth rate is compensated by high
death rate

2. Stage II or Early transition. During the early stages of the transition, the death rate begins to fall. As birth rates
remains high, the population starts to grow rapidly. With the gradual attainment of economic development, the
living condition of people started to improve due to better and regular diet, better medical and sanitation facilities
leading to fall in the death rate.

3. Stage III or Late transition. Birth rates start to decline. The rate of population growth decelerates. With the
gradual attainment of economic development, the economy of the country started to experience a change in its
structure from a purely agrarian to an industrialized one. During this stage people become conscious about the size
of the family and also on limiting the size of the family. There will be exodus of population from rural to urban
areas in search of food and job.

4. Stage 4 Post-transition. This is characterized by a low birth rate and a low death rate of population, leading to
a stationary population. It is, therefore, known as the stage of stationary population where both

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the birth rate and death rate remain at a low level leading to a very little growth in population.

C. POPULATION PROCESSES

Population processes are typically characterized by demographic processes comprising of fertility (birth rate), mortality
(death rate), and migration (immigration and emigration rate)

Fertility

Fertility refers to the number of live births women have refers or the ability of females to produce healthy offspring in abundance.
It differs from fecundity, which refers to the physiological capability of women to reproduce. Fertility is directly determined by a
number of factors which, in turn, are affected by a great many other factors: social, cultural, environmental, economic, and health.

One common demographic measure used in relation to fertility is Total Fertility Rate. The total fertility rate (TFR) is the
average number of children that would be born to a woman by the time she ended childbearing if she were to pass through all her
childbearing years conforming to the age specific fertility rates of a given year. The TFR is one of the most useful indicators of
fertility because it gives the best picture of how many children women are currently having. The other measure is called the
Crude Birth Rate which indicates the number of live births per 1,000 populations in a given year.

Crude birth rate is computed as

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐵𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
𝐶𝑟𝑢𝑑𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝑥1000
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑖𝑧𝑒

Fertility is affected by cultural, social, economic, and health factors. Most of these factors operate through four other factors:
1. Proportion of women in sexual unions.
2. Percentage of women using contraception.
3. Proportion of women who are not currently fecund (primarily because of breastfeeding).
4. Level of induced abortion and/or miscarriage.

Mortality

Mortality refers to deaths that occur within a population. The probability of dying during a given time period is linked to many
factors, such as age, sex, race, occupation, and economic status. The incidence of death can reveal much about a population’s
standard of living and health care.

Some of the more common demographic measures of mortality include crude death rate, infant mortality rate and life
expectancy.

The death rate (also called the crude death rate) is the number of deaths per 1,000 population in that population in a given
year.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐷𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠
𝐶𝑟𝑢𝑑𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝑥1000
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
The crude death rate can be particularly affected by age structure. It is therefore prudent, when comparing death rates between
countries, to adjust for differences in age composition before making inferences about a country’s health, economic, or
environmental conditions.

The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths of infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births in a given year. The infant mortality
rate is considered a good indicator of the health status of a population. It is computed using the formula:

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐷𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝐴𝑔𝑒 1 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑦𝑎𝑒𝑟

𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑀𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝑥1000
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐿𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝐵𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of additional years a person could expect to live if the age- specific death
rates for a given year prevailed for the rest of his or her life. Life expectancy is a hypothetical measure because it is based on
current death rates and actual death rates change (usually improving) over the course of a person’s lifetime. Each person’s life
expectancy changes as he or she grows older and as mortality trends change.

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Because life expectancy also differs significantly depending on sex, present age, and race, these categories are usually listed
separately. Life expectancy at birth, a good indicator of current health conditions, is the most commonly cited life expectancy
measure.

According to World Health Organization, global life expectancy is 72 years (74.2 years for females and 69.8 years for males) In the
Philippines, the current life expectancy is 71 .16 (68 for males and 73 for females)
Morbidity

Morbidity

Morbidity refers to disease and illness, injury, and disability in a population. Data about the frequency and distribution of a
disease can aid in controlling its spread and, in some cases, may lead to the identification of its cause.

D. FACTORS RELATED TO POPULATION PROCESSES

These are reasons and determinants affecting the change in population processes including the following:

 Diseases and socioeconomic characteristics related to mortality (Global disease is a disease that exists in both
developed and developed countries like HIV and AIDs incidence, SARS, Ebola virus, malaria
 Family formation
 Labor force participation
 Government policies related to fertility
 Differences in income and opportunities in various areas
 Immigration policies,
 Economic conditions motivating migration

E. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

Population distribution means the pattern of where people live. It refers to the geographic distribution, such as among states
or between rural and urban areas World population distribution is uneven. Places which are sparsely populated contain few
people. Places which are densely populated contain many people

Urbanization is the increase in the proportion of the population living in urban areas—the process of people moving to cities or
other densely settled areas. Population distribution refers to the patterns of settlement and dispersal of population within a country
or other area.

Percent Urban

The population living in urban areas can be expressed as a percentage of the area’s total population and is a measure of
urbanization. Usually the remainder of the population is considered rural, although some countries also have a middle category
designated “semi-urban.” Urban growth refers to an increase in the physical size of an urban area.

Number Living in Urban Area

Percent Urban= Total Population 𝑥100

Population Density

Population density is a measurement of the number of people in an area. It is an average number. Population density is
calculated by dividing the number of people by area. Population density is usually shown as the number of people per square
kilometer.
Total Population
Population Density= 𝑥100
Total Area (𝑘𝑚2)

F. POPULATION STRUCTURE

Population structure refers to the age and sex composition of the population which determines the growing proportion of the
population at advanced ages, the sex ratio at birth, and the increasing proportion of the population that is female with increasing
age

Age and sex are the most basic characteristics of a population. Every population has a different age and sex composition—the
number and proportion of males and females in each age group—and this structure can have considerable impact on the
population’s current and future social and economic situation.

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Sex Ratio

The sex ratio is the ratio of males to females in a given population, usually expressed as the number of males for every 100
females. The sex ratio at birth in most countries is about 105 males per 100 females. After birth, sex ratios vary because of
different patterns of mortality and migration for males and females within the population.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝑆𝑒𝑥 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑥100

Age Structure

Age Structure of a population is the distribution of people of various ages or age groups. It is a useful tool because it illustrates
trends on birth rates and death rates and used to understand and predict population growth.

The age structure is as follows:

0 – 14 years (children)
15 – 24 years (early working age) 25 –
54 years (prime working age) 55 – 64
years (mature working age) 65 years
and over (elderly)

Some populations are relatively young, that is, they have a large proportion of people in the younger age groups. The high-
fertility countries of Africa with large proportions of young adults and children are examples. Other populations are relatively
old, such as many countries in Europe. These two types of populations have markedly different age compositions; as a
consequence, they also have different proportions of the population in the labor force or in school, as well as different medical
needs, consumer preferences, and even crime patterns. A population’s age structure has a great deal to do with how that
population lives.

Developing countries have relatively young populations while most developed countries have old or “aging” populations. In many
developing countries, 40 percent or more of the population is under age 15, while 4 percent is 65 or older. On the other hand, in
virtually every developed country, less than 25 percent of the population is under age 15 and more than 10 percent is 65 or older.

Median Age

The median age is the age at which exactly half the population is older and half is younger.
The global median age has increased from 21.5 years in 1970 to over 30 years in 2019. The global population breakdown by
age shows that a quarter (26%) are younger than 14 years, 8% are older than 65, while half of the world population is the
working age bracket between 25 and 65.

Age-Dependency Ratio

The age-dependency ratio is the ratio of people in the “dependent” ages (those under age 15 and ages 65 and older) to those in the
“economically productive” ages (15 to 64 years) in a population. The age-dependency ratio is often used as an indicator of the
economic burden the productive portion of a population must carry—even though some people defined as “dependent” are
producers and some people in the “productive” ages are economically dependent.
Countries with very high birth rates usually have the highest age-dependency ratios because of the large proportion of children
in the population. The age-dependency ratio is sometimes divided into old-age dependency (the ratio of people ages 65 and
older to those ages 15 to 64) and child dependency (the ratio of people under age 15 to those ages 15 to 64)
Population under age 15 + Population ages 65 and older
𝐴𝑔𝑒 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = 𝑥100
Population ages 15 − 64
Population Pyramid
A population pyramid graphically displays a population’s age and sex composition. Horizontal bars present the numbers or
proportions of males and females in each age group. The sum of all the age-sex groups in the population pyramid equals 100
percent of the population.

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Figure 12.2
Population Pyramid of the Philippines

The median age is the age at which exactly half the population is older and half is younger.
The global median age has increased from 21.5 years in 1970 to over 30 years in 2019. The global population breakdown by age
shows that a quarter (26%) are younger than 14 years, 8% are older than 65, while half of the world population is the working age
bracket between 25 and 65.

G. Population characteristics:

Population characteristics pertain to the variables that describe and characterize a given population including the education,
income, labor force participation, marriage, marital status, households and families, , and race or ethnic group membership—
anything that has a value for each member of the population and does not have the same value for everyone.

Families and Household

Households and families are the basic units in which most people live. Trends in the number, type, and composition of
households are important to sociologists, planners, and policymakers. For example, municipal services are provided to
households, not to each individual. Other living situations include homelessness; group arrangements such as college dormitories,
nursing homes, and military quarters; and institutions like psychiatric units and prisons.

A household is often defined as one or more people who occupy a single housing unit. Households consist of unrelated people or
people related by birth, marriage, or adoption. Average Household Size is the number of people who live in households and the
number of households, we can calculate the average size of households.

Number of People living in Households

𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑆𝑖𝑧𝑒 = 𝑥100
Total Household

Race and Ethnicity

Race, ethnicity, language group, and national heritage are often used for analyses of population groups. These data may reveal
much about a population’s origins and are often used in the administration of government programs. In many countries,
demographic data are reported for race, ethnic group, national origin, and religious affiliation.

Definitions of race and ethnicity vary from country to country and over time. Even within academic disciplines, not everyone
agrees on how to define these concepts. Each country investigating racial or ethnic characteristics of its population should apply
the definitions and criteria determined by the groups that it wants to identify.

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Nuptiality refers to marriage as a population phenomenon, including the rate at which it occurs, the characteristics of people
united in marriage, and the dissolution of such unions (through divorce, separation, widowhood, and annulment). Marriage Rate
The marriage rate (also called the crude marriage rate) is the number of marriages per 1,000 total population in a given year. This
rate is calculated using the number of marriages—not the number of people getting married—and includes both first marriages
and remarriages.

Number of Marriages
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝑥1000
Total Population
Malthusian Theory of Population

 In his 1798 work, An Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus examined the relationship between
population growth and resources.
 From this book, he developed the Malthusian theory of population growth in which he wrote that population
growth occurs exponentially (2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and 64) and food production increases arithmetically (1,2,3 and so on and
so forth)
 Thomas Malthus believed that the human population exhibits exponential growth. He predicted that the uncontrolled
population growth would lead to a depletion of resources, increased pollution, overcrowding and increased
unemployment.
 According to Malthus, there are two types of 'checks' that can reduce a population's growth rate.
Preventive checks are voluntary actions people can take to avoid contributing to the population. Because of his
religious beliefs, he supported a concept he called moral restraint, in which people resist the urge to marry and
reproduce until they are capable of supporting a family. This often means waiting until a later age to marry. He also
wrote that there are 'immoral' ways to check a population, such as vices, adultery, prostitution, and birth control. Due to
his beliefs, he favored moral restraint and didn't support the latter practices.
 Positive checks to population growth are things that may shorten the average lifespan, such as disease, warfare,
famine, and poor living and working environments. According to Malthus, eventually these positive checks would
result in a Malthusian catastrophe (also sometimes called a Malthusian crisis), which is a forced return of a
population to basic survival.

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