Global Demography

Demography is the study of the distribution, composition and changes of human

populations. Its main interests are birth and death rates, emigration and immigration
patterns and marital patterns. The Philippines currently has 109.6 million people and is 13 th
in global population ranking for a 1.41% share in the total human inhabitants of the planet.
China today has the world’s biggest population with 1.4 billion people for an 18.47% global
share. The Vatican City State, the world’s smallest country with an area of just 0.32 square
kilometer, has a population of 801.
There are 6.5 billion people in the world today. It stood at 2 billion in the 1950’s.
The planet gains 76 million more people every year. By 2050, it is estimated that world
population will be over 9 billion. Populations in least-developed and developing countries
are steadily growing while that of developed countries remains steady at 1.2 billion.
The usefulness of demography lies in its ability to help humanity address its social
and economic problems. Demography focuses on social planning, forecasting of trends in
the labor market and addressing issues in geopolitics and public administration.
Demographers advise governments and private agencies in crafting programs and policies
that aim at achieving well-balanced growth and development at the local, regional, national
and international levels.

Demographic Transition Model

Being a central component of social change, demography helps explain the impact of
globalization on the ever-changing landscape of human population growth and migration
dynamics. Among the popular theories in global demography is the Demographic Transition
Model (DTM). The theory states that a country’s total population growth rate goes through
cyclical stages as the country develops economically.
Some 300 years ago, a global phenomenon was unfolding in Europe. Due to new
technologies, productivity in agriculture and manufacturing soared and, coupled by advances
in healthcare and sanitation, death rates declined. A greater number of people lived beyond
their adolescent years thereby increasing the general life expectancy. A new trajectory of
population growth emerged in countries experiencing the benefits of Industrial Revolution –
the period in history spanning from the 18th to the early 19th centuries when mechanization
brought major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, production and transportation; it began
in England and spread to Belgium, Germany, Northern France, and eventually the United
States and Japan. Prior to this, birth and death rates in most countries were relatively equal.
With declining death rates, the understanding of the correlation between birth and mortality
rates shifted.

Table 1. Stages of the Demographic Transition Model

 Demographic Transition

Stage 1
The condition of the world before the Industrial
Revolution where birth and death rates are high
making population size stable, disruptions such as
wars and pandemics cause occasional declines.
Stage 2
The condition in most of the least developed countries
today, this stage is marked by low death rates
particularly among children while birth rates stay high
resulting in accelerated population growth. Examples
are Guatemala, Yemen and Afghanistan.
Stage 3
True to most developing countries, this is the
Fertility condition where the birth rates are decreasing rate
refers to because of any or a combination of the following the
estimate of factors: access to contraception, increased the
average participation of women in the workforce and
number of improving economic conditions. The population is still
children increasing in a slower pace. that
would be Stage 4 born
to a
This is characterized by low birth and death rates.
woman in a
The economy has attained growth and development,
country
people are educated and enjoy good health and jobs
during the
are available for both men and women. This is the
course of her
condition obtaining in developed countries.
lifetime,
assuming Stage 5 she
lives a full Demographic theorists include a possible stage 5 and
healthy life. where countries have an elderly population that For
a country’s outnumber the youthful population. This is due to low
population fertility that has fallen below what is needed to to
stay steady replace the population from generation to generation.
(minus immigration), the fertility rate should be at 2.1, this is the rate which replaces the
parents and accounts for mortality due to unexpected causes.
Japan, which is experiencing decreasing birth rate (average lifespan is 84 years) is in
the fifth state of the Demographic Transition Model. It has a negative population increase
rate. Japan’s population growth rate is - 0.20%. The Philippines is in Stage 2 going to
Stage 3 of the DTM. Its fertility rate is decreasing, it now stands at 2.6 live births per
woman. The country’s population grows at the rate of 1.4%, meaning an average of 1.4
million people are added to the population every year.
DTM amplified the notion that a country’s fertility rate and economic development are
somehow intertwined. Industrialized countries such as Japan, Switzerland, the United
States and Italy have fertility rates below 2.1 forcing them to face the stark reality that they
needed to ensure that their population continues to grow in order for them to have enough
future labor force. Developing countries on the other hand such as Tanzania, Zambia and
India have high fertility rates impacting basic health services and the delivery of other
essentials needed to maintain a decent quality of life. Their huge population is vulnerable to
life-threatening diseases. Efforts therefore to eliminate poverty are crucial to reduce the
spread of diseases and reduce mortality. It is no accident that foremost in the Sustainable
Development Goals of the United Nations is the eradication of extreme poverty by the year
2030.
Impact of COVID – 19 Pandemic
Nobody saw it coming. Not even the World Health Organization. It belatedly
declared a pandemic only on March 11, 2020 after almost three months after the outbreak in
Wuhan. By then, COVID – 19 was already in 113 countries with 118,332 confirmed cases
and 4,292 deaths. Who would think that the world will suffer a pandemic whose scale and
misery was last experienced in 1918. The United Nations Development Programme called
COVID – 19 pandemic as the defining global health crisis of our time and the greatest global
challenge humanity has faced since the Second World War.
.
COVID – 19 has infected more than 23,900,000 people and claimed more than 819,600
lives in more than 200 countries according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at
Johns Hopkins University as of August 26, 2020. The pandemic has devastated world economies
and drove millions of people to poverty. It has dramatically altered the way people relate to one
another and profoundly affected everyday life, the simple act of going out for groceries has become
a seriously guarded act. The Asian Development Bank estimates that the global economic impact
of the pandemic could reach $8.8 trillion. This is more than double the annual budget of the entire
United States, the world’s leading superpower and the strongest economy.

Global Migration

Global migration is defined as the movement of a person or a group of persons,

either across an international border, or within a state. It is a population movement,
encompassing any kind of movement of people, whatever its length, composition and
causes; it includes migration of refugees, displaced persons, economic migrants, and
persons moving for other purposes, including family reunification. To a greater degree, it is a
situation in which people go to live in foreign countries, especially in order to find work.

Migration is classified into two types. When people move or transfer from one area to
another within the country, it is called internal migration. The second type is when people
cross borders and enter another country, this international migration. Claudio and Abinales,
in their book, The Contemporary World wrote that international migration can be classified
into five categories.

First are the immigrants who moved permanently to another country. The second
are the workers who stay for a fixed period of time. The third group are the illegal
immigrants. Those who were petitioned by their families to move to the receiving country
are the fourth group while the fifth group are refugees or asylum seekers who are at risk for
persecution in their home country by reason of religion, race, nationality or ideological
affiliation

Drivers of Human Migration

 Most people say that their going and living in a foreign land is in search of the so-
called “greener pastures” or simply to earn money more quickly than they can in their home
country and to upgrade their standard of living.

There is however, a deeper interplay of factors that come into play to an individual’s
decision to leave home and try their luck in a new country. Enni Kallio citing the works of
Neumann, K., et al and Black, R., et al, presented five drivers that influence the volume,
direction and frequency of human migration: political, demographic, economic, social, and
environmental drivers. Martin in his book, The Global Challenge of Managing Migration,
wrote that the economic and demographic factors are the primary reasons why people move
globally. The economic factor means higher opportunity for well-paying jobs in the receiving
country while demographic factors include the size and density of population in the areas of
out-migration, and prevalence of diseases.
The political factors include the conflicts, wars, discrimination, ideological
persecutions and reigning political regimes in the home country. The civil war in Syria which
began in 2011 is still raging and resulted in 3.8 million refugees who have sought shelter in
Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq. Environmental reasons also drive people to migrate to
other countries. Among these factors are drought, reduced land productivity, depletion of
natural resources and climate change – related disasters. Families who want to be reunited,
preserve ties, support each other, and fulfil the obligations and responsibilities constitute the
social driver of migration. The United Nations estimates that in 2019 the number of
international migrants worldwide is 272 million. It stood at 258 million in 2017. Of the 2019
figure, 48% are women and about 38 million are children. Three-fourths of the international
migrants are of working age (20 – 64 years old). Migrant workers number 164 million out of
the total number of international migrants. The Global Migration Data Portal reported that
around 31% of global international migrants reside in Asia, 30% in Europe, 26% in the
Americas, 10% in Africa and 3% in Oceania. The immigrant-sending countries as of 2019
are India, Mexico, China, Russian Federation, Syrian Arab Republic, Bangladesh and
Pakistan. The Philippines ranks ninth sending more than five million immigrants. The top
immigrant-receiving countries of the world are the United States of America, Germany, Saudi
Arabia, Russian Federation, United Arab Emirates, France, Canada and Australia.