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    Exercise 2 19 10 2022

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    praskovenapraskova
    This document discusses probability functions and concepts including unions, intersections, complements, and Venn diagrams. Some key points: - It provides examples of characterizing events based on defined sample spaces and intervals for events A and B. This includes finding probabilities of unions, intersections, and complements. - It presents problems involving calculating probabilities based on given probabilities of events, using properties like P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B). - Examples involve finding probabilities based on real world scenarios involving TV programs, accepting applications to medical schools, winning football games, and more. - The final problem asks to find p2 given probabilities of events A

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    Exercise 2 19 10 2022

    Uploaded by

    praskovenapraskova
    47 views32 pages
    This document discusses probability functions and concepts including unions, intersections, complements, and Venn diagrams. Some key points: - It provides examples of characterizing events based on defined sample spaces and intervals for events A and B. This includes finding probabilities of unions, intersections, and complements. - It presents problems involving calculating probabilities based on given probabilities of events, using properties like P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B). - Examples involve finding probabilities based on real world scenarios involving TV programs, accepting applications to medical schools, winning football games, and more. - The final problem asks to find p2 given probabilities of events A

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    Exercise_2_19_10_2022

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    This document discusses probability functions and concepts including unions, intersections, complements, and Venn diagrams. Some key points: - It provides examples of characterizing events based on defined sample spaces and intervals for events A and B. This includes finding probabilities of unions, intersections, and complements. - It presents problems involving calculating probabilities based on given probabilities of events, using properties like P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B). - Examples involve finding probabilities based on real world scenarios involving TV programs, accepting applications to medical schools, winning football games, and more. - The final problem asks to find p2 given probabilities of events A

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    47 views32 pages

    Exercise 2 19 10 2022

    Uploaded by

    praskovenapraskova
    This document discusses probability functions and concepts including unions, intersections, complements, and Venn diagrams. Some key points: - It provides examples of characterizing events based on defined sample spaces and intervals for events A and B. This includes finding probabilities of unions, intersections, and complements. - It presents problems involving calculating probabilities based on given probabilities of events, using properties like P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B). - Examples involve finding probabilities based on real world scenarios involving TV programs, accepting applications to medical schools, winning football games, and more. - The final problem asks to find p2 given probabilities of events A

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 32

    Principles of Statistics

    Week 3
    The Probability function.(2.3)

    Mihaela Angelova
    mihaela.urb@gmail.com
    Unions, Intersections, and Complements

    Intersection Union Complement


    A∩B AUB Ac

    DeMorgan’s laws:
    (A ∩ B)c = Ac ∪ Bc
    (A ∪ B)c = Ac ∩ Bc
    More Venn diagrams
    Unions, Intersections, and Complements
    • Let events A and B and sample space S be defined as
    the following intervals:
    S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

    • Characterize the following events:


    • (a) A C
    • (b) A ∩ B
    • (c) A ∪ B
    • (d) A ∩ BC
    • (e) AC ∪ B
    • (f) AC ∩ BC
    Unions, Intersections, and Complements

    • Let events A and B and sample space S be defined


    as the following intervals:
    S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

    • Characterize the following events:


    • (a) A C=?
    We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}
    So S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, A={1,2,3,4}

    Then A C = {0} ∪ {x: 5 ≤ x ≤ 10}


    Unions, Intersections, and Complements

    • Let events A and B and sample space S be defined as


    the following intervals:
    S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

    • Characterize the following events:


    • (b) A ∩ B=?
    We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x:0<x <5}, B ={x:3≤x ≤7}

    So S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, A={1,2,3,4}, B ={3,4,5,6,7}

    Then A ∩ B ={x: 3 ≤ x < 5}


    Unions, Intersections, and Complements
    • Let events A and B and sample space S be defined as the
    following intervals:
    S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

    • Characterize the following events:


    • (c) A ∪ B=?
    We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x:0<x <5}, B ={x:3≤x ≤7}
    So A={1,2,3,4}, B ={3,4,5,6,7}
    A ∪ B = A or B or both ={1,2,3,4,5,6,7}

    Then A ∪ B={x: 0 < x ≤ 7}


    Unions, Intersections, and Complements
    • Let events A and B and sample space S be defined as the following intervals:
    S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

    • Characterize the following events:


    • (d) A ∩ B C =?
    We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x:0<x <5}, B ={x:3≤x ≤7}
    So S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, A={1,2,3,4}, B ={3,4,5,6,7}
    Then B C = {0,1,2, 8,9,10}

    Then A ∩ B C = {x : 0<x <3 }


    Unions, Intersections, and Complements
    • Let events A and B and sample space S be defined as the following
    intervals: S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

    • Characterize the following events:


    • (e) AC ∪ B =?
    We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x:0<x <5}, B ={x:3≤x ≤7}

    So S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, A={1,2,3,4}, B ={3,4,5,6,7}


    Then A C = {0, 5,6,7,8,9,10}
    AC ∪ B = AC or B or both ={0,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}
    Then A C ∪ B ={0} ∪ {x : 3≤x≤ 10}
    Unions, Intersections, and Complements

    • Let events A and B and sample space S be


    defined as the following intervals:
    S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

    • Characterize the following events:


    • (f) A C ∩ B C=?
    We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x:0<x <5}, B ={x:3≤x ≤7}

    So S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, A={1,2,3,4}, B ={3,4,5,6,7}


    Then A C = {0, 5,6,7,8,9,10}, B C = {0,1,2, 8,9,10}
    A C ∩ B C= both part (the intersection)
    Then A C ∩ B C={0} ∪ { x: 7 <x≤ 10}
    The Probability function
    Kolmogorov’s Axioms
    • Axiom 1. A є S. Then P(A)≥0.
    • Axiom 2. P(S)=1.
    If mutually
    • Axiom 3. (A ∩ B=∅) -> P(A ∪ B)= P(A)+ P(B) exclusive
    • Axiom 4. infinite number of members, A i ∩ A j =∅ for
    each i # j, then

    Basic Properties of P
    • P(Ac) = 1 – P(A)
    • P(Ø) = 0, we read ‘empty set’
    • P(A ∪ B )=P(A)+P(B) - P(A ∩ B ) If intersection
    • If A є B, P(A)<P(B)
    • P(A𝑐 ∪ B𝑐 )=P((A ∩ B)𝑐)=1-P(A ∩ B)
    • P(A𝑐 ∩ B)=P(B)-P(A ∩ B)
    The Probability function
    • Let A and B be any two events defined on S. Suppose
    that P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.1.
    • What is the probability that A or B but not both occur?

    P(A) = 0.4,
    P(B) = 0.5
    P(A ∩ B) = 0.1

    P(A or B but not both) = ?


    The Probability function
    P(A) = 0.4
    P(B) = 0.5

    P(A ∩ B) = 0.1

    P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)


    = 0.4 + 0.5 – 0.1 = 0.8

    P(A or B but not both) = P(A ∪ B) - P(A ∩ B)


    P(A or B but not both) = 0.8 – 0.1 = 0.7
    The Probability function
    • Let A and B be two events defined on S. If the
    probability that at least one of them occurs is 0.3 and
    the probability that A occurs but B does not occur is 0.1,
    • what is P(B)?
    The Probability function
    P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) = 0.3 =0.3
    (at least one of them occurs: A or B or both)

    P(A ∩ Bc) = P(A) – P(A ∩ B) = 0.1


    (A occurs, but B doesn’t)
    =0.1
    Basic Properties of P
    • P(A𝑐 ∩ B)=P(B)-P(A ∩ B)
    From Eq.1: P(B)=0.3-P(A)+ P(A ∩ B)
    From Eq.2: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) - 0.1
    =?
     P(B)=0.3-P(A)+ P(A) - 0.1 = 0.2

    P(B) = 0.3-0.1=0.2 (also using the Venn diagram)


    (B occurs)
    The Probability function
    • Events A and B are defined on a sample space S such
    that P((A ∪ B)C) = 0.5 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.2.
    • What is the probability that either A or B but not both will
    occur?
    The Probability function
    P((A ∪ B)C) =0.5 =0.5 =0.5
    P(A ∩ B)=0.2
    P(A ∪ B) = 1 – P((A ∪ B)c) =0.5

    =0.2

    =?

    P(A or B but not both)= P(A ∪ B) - P(A ∩ B)=0.5 - 0.2 = 0.3


    The Probability function
    • Let A1,A2,…,An be a series of events for which Ai ∩ Aj = ∅
    if i # j and A1 ∪ A2 ∪ ...An = S.
    • Let B be any event defined on S.
    • Express B as a union of intersections.
    The Probability function
    • Let A1,A2,…,An be a series of events for which Ai ∩ Aj = ∅
    if i # j and A1 ∪ A2 ∪ ...An = S.
    • Let B be any event defined on S.
    • Express B as a union of intersections.

    А1 А2 B = (B ∩ A1) ∪ (B ∩ A2)
    … ∪ (B ∩ An)

    А3 for any given mutually


    B exclusive events
    The Probability function
    • According to a family-oriented lobbying group, there is
    too much crude language and violence on television.
    • 42% of the programs they screened had language they
    found offensive, 27% were too violent, and 10% were
    considered excessive in both language and violence.
    • What percentage of programs did comply with the
    group’s standards?
    The Probability function
    • Let L and V denote the sets of programs with offensive
    language and too much violence, respectively.
    • Then P(L) = 0.42, P(V) = 0.27, and P(L ∩ V) = 0.10.

    Therefore,
    • P(program complies) = P((L ∪ V)C ) =1- P(L ∪ V)=
    = 1 − [P(L) + P(V) − P(L ∩ V)] =
    = 1 –(0.42+0.27-0.10) = 0.41

    Basic Properties of P
    P(A ∪ B )=P(A)+P(B) - P(A ∩ B ) If intersection
    The Probability function
    • An urn contains twenty-four chips, numbered 1 through
    24. One is drawn at random.
    • Let A be the event that the number is divisible by 2
    • Let B be the event that the number is divisible by 3.
    • Find P(A ∪ B)?
    The Probability function
    • An urn contains twenty-four chips, numbered 1 through
    24. One is drawn at random.
    • Let A be the event that the number is divisible by 2
    • Let B be the event that the number is divisible by 3.
    • Find P(A∪ B)?
    Solution:
    A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24}; P(A )=

    B = {3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24); P(B )=

    A ∩ B = {6, 12, 18, 24}. P(A ∩ B )=

    Therefore, P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) =


    The Probability function
    • After taking two years of chemistry, a year of physics,
    and a year of biology, Jack decides to apply for
    medical education and sends his scores to two schools,
    X and Y. He estimates that his probability of being
    accepted at X is 0.7, and at Y is 0.4. He also suspects
    there is a 75% chance that at least one of his
    applications will be rejected.
    • What is the probability that he gets at least one
    acceptance?
    The Probability function
    • A - the event “School X accepts him”
    • B - the event “School Y accepts him.”

    • We know that P(A)=0.7, P(B)=0.4, and P(AC ∪ BC )=0.75


    • P(A ∪ B)=? (at least one acceptance)

    Solution:
    To find P(A ∪ B) = P(A)+ P(B)− P(A ∩ B), we need P(A ∩ B)

    • P(AC ∪ BC) = P(A ∩ B)C (De Morgan’s law)


    • P(A ∩ B) = 1− P(A ∩ B)C=1−0.75=0.25

    Then P(A ∪ B) = P(A)+ P(B)− P(A∩ B)= 0.7+0.4−0.25=0.85

    • It follows that Jack has an 85% chance of getting in


    somewhere
    The Probability function
    • If State’s football team has a 10% chance of winning
    Saturday’s game, a 30% chance of winning two weeks
    from now, and a 65% chance of losing both games,
    • what are their chances of winning exactly once?
    The Probability function
    • Event A: State wins Saturday
    • Event B: State wins next Saturday
    • Then P(A) = 0.10, P(B) = 0.30, and
    • P(lose both) = P(A ∪ B)c=
    1 − P(A ∪ B) = 0.65 ,
    which implies that
    • P(A ∪ B) = 0.35 (win A or B or both) lose both win A or B
    or both
    • Therefore,
    • P(A ∩ B) = P(A)+ P(B)− P(A ∪ B) = 0.05 (win both)

    • P(State wins exactly once) = P(win A or B)=


    = P(A ∪ B) − P(A ∩ B) = 0.35 − 0.05 = 0.30

    (win A or B (win both)


    or both) wins exactly once
    The Probability function
    • Events A1 and A2 are such that A1 ∪ A2 = S and
    • A 1 ∩ A 2 =∅.
    • P(A1)= p1 , P(A2)= p2 , and 3p1−p2 =1/2
    • p2 =?
    The Probability function
    • Events A1 and A2 are such that A1 ∪ A2 = S and
    • A1 ∩ A2 =∅.
    • Find p2 if P(A1)= p1 , P(A2)= p2 , and 3p1−p2 =1/2

    Solution: We know from Axiom 2. P(S)=1 = P(A1 ∪ A2)


    • Since A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive and cover the
    entire sample space => Axiom 3. P(A1 ∪ A2)= P(A1)+ P(A2)
    • Then p1 + p2 = 1 => p1=1-p2
    • But 3p1 − p2 =1/2, => p1=(1/2+p2)/3
    So:
    • 1-p2=(1/2+p2)/3
    • 1-p2=1/6+p2/3
    • p2/3 +p2=1-1/6
    • 4p2/3 =5/6
    • p2=5/6 x 3/4= 5/8
    The Probability function
    • Lucy is currently committing two frauds. She estimates
    that the chances of the first one leading to her arrest
    are one in ten; the “risk” associated with the second is
    one in thirty.
    • She considers the likelihood that she gets arrested for
    both to be 0.0025.
    • What are Lucy’s chances of avoiding prison?
    The Probability function
    • Let A be the event of getting arrested for the first fraud;
    • B - for the second
    • P(A) =1/10,
    • P(B) = 1/30,
    • P(A ∩ B) = 0.0025

    Her chances of not getting arrested are:


    • P[(A ∪ B)C ] =1 − P(A ∪ B) = 1 − [P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)] =
    = 1 − [1/10 + 1/30 − 0.0025] = 0.869

    Basic Properties of P
    P(A ∪ B )=P(A)+P(B) - P(A ∩ B ) If intersection
    Thank you for your attention!

    Mihaela Angelova
    mihaela.urb@gmail.com

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