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    Stat 35&38

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    Sara Feresebhat
    The document discusses calculating conditional probabilities for events A and B given their individual probabilities. It finds: P(A|B)=1/3 P(B|A)=1/5 P(A|A∪B)=5/7 P(A|A∩B)=5 P(A∩B|A∪B)=1/7 It then calculates the probability a defective part came from machine M1 using the probabilities of production percentages for each machine and their individual defective percentages, finding the probability to be 47.4% using Bayes' theorem.

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    Stat 35&38

    Uploaded by

    Sara Feresebhat
    7 views2 pages
    The document discusses calculating conditional probabilities for events A and B given their individual probabilities. It finds: P(A|B)=1/3 P(B|A)=1/5 P(A|A∪B)=5/7 P(A|A∩B)=5 P(A∩B|A∪B)=1/7 It then calculates the probability a defective part came from machine M1 using the probabilities of production percentages for each machine and their individual defective percentages, finding the probability to be 47.4% using Bayes' theorem.

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    Answer for questions

    Original Title

    Stat 35&38 (1)

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    The document discusses calculating conditional probabilities for events A and B given their individual probabilities. It finds: P(A|B)=1/3 P(B|A)=1/5 P(A|A∪B)=5/7 P(A|A∩B)=5 P(A∩B|A∪B)=1/7 It then calculates the probability a defective part came from machine M1 using the probabilities of production percentages for each machine and their individual defective percentages, finding the probability to be 47.4% using Bayes' theorem.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    7 views2 pages

    Stat 35&38

    Uploaded by

    Sara Feresebhat
    The document discusses calculating conditional probabilities for events A and B given their individual probabilities. It finds: P(A|B)=1/3 P(B|A)=1/5 P(A|A∪B)=5/7 P(A|A∩B)=5 P(A∩B|A∪B)=1/7 It then calculates the probability a defective part came from machine M1 using the probabilities of production percentages for each machine and their individual defective percentages, finding the probability to be 47.4% using Bayes' theorem.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 2

    35, If two events, A and B, are such that P(A)=0.5,P(B)=0.3 and P(A∩B)= 0.

    1, find the
    following:
    a. P(A│B) b. P(B│A) c. P(A│A∪B) d. P(A│A∩B) e. P(A∩B|A∪B)
    To find the probabilities of the given events, we can use the definitions of conditional
    probability and set theory.
     Given probabilities:
     P(A) = 0.5
     P(B) = 0.3
     P(A∩B) = 0.1
    a. P(A|B) represents the probability of event A occurring given that event B has already
    occurred. This can be calculated using the formula:
     P(A|B) = P(A∩B) / P(B)
    Substituting the given values: P(A|B) = 0.1 / 0.3 = 1/3
    b. P(B|A) represents the probability of event B occurring given that event A has already
    occurred. This can be calculated using the formula:
     P(B|A) = P(A∩B) / P(A)
    Substituting the given values: P(B|A) = 0.1 / 0.5 = 1/5
    c. P(A|A∪B) represents the probability of event A occurring given that either event A or
    event B has occurred. This can be calculated using the formula:
     P(A|A∪B) = P(A∩(A∪B)) / P(A∪B)
    Since A∩(A∪B) = A, P(A|A∪B) simplifies to: P(A|A∪B) = P(A) / P(A∪B)
    We can express P(A∪B) using set theory as: P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)
    Substituting the given values: P(A∪B) = 0.5 + 0.3 – 0.1 = 0.7
    P(A|A∪B) = 0.5 / 0.7 = 5/7
    d. P(A|A∩B) represents the probability of event A occurring given that both event A and
    event B have occurred. By definition:
     P(A│A∩B) = P(A∩(A∩B)) / P(A∩B) = P(A) / P(A∩B) = 0.5 / 0.1 = 5
    e. P(A∩B|A∪B) represents the probability of both event A and event B occurring given
    that either event A or event B has occurred. This can be calculated using the formula:
     P(A∩B|A∪B) = P(A∩B) / P(A∪B)
    Substituting the given values: P(A∩B|A∪B) = 0.1 / 0.7 = 1/7
    To summarize: a. P(A|B) = 1/3 b. P(B|A) = 1/5 c. P(A|A∪B) = 5/7 d. P(A|A∩B) = 5
    e. P(A∩B|A∪B) = 1/7
    38, A factory has two machines M1 and M2 making 60% and 40% respectively of the total
    production. Machine M1 produces 3% defective items, and M2 produces 5% defective items.
    Find the probability that a given defective part came from M1?

    1
     To find the probability that a given defective part came from Machine M1, we can use
    conditional probability.
    Let's define the events:
     A: The given defective part came from Machine M1.
     B: The part is defective.
    We are given the following probabilities:
    o P(A) = Probability of selecting a part from M1 = 60% = 0.6
    o P(B|A) = Probability of the part being defective given that it came from
    M1 = 3% = 0.03
    o P(B|M2) = Probability of the part being defective given that it came from
    M2 = 5% = 0.05
    We want to find P(A|B), which represents the probability that the defective
    part came from M1 given that it is defective.

    Using Bayes' theorem, we can calculate P(A|B) as follows:


     P(A|B) = (P(A) * P(B/A)) / P(B)
    To calculate P(B), the probability of a part being defective, we can use the
    law of total probability:
     P(B) = P(A) * P(B|A) + P(M2) * P(B|M2)
    =0.6*0.03 + 0.4*0.05
    =0.018 + 0.02
    =0.038
     P(A/B)= P(A)*P(B/A)/P(B)
    =0.6*0.03/0.038
    =0.474
     So the probability that a given defective part came from M1 is
    approximately 47.4%.

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