S05 Probability With P&C

Probability
With
P and C
FEBRUARY 23, 2024
REVISION: 72
AZIZ MANVA
AZIZMANVA@GMAIL.COM
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Get all the files at: https://bit.ly/azizhandouts
Aziz Manva (azizmanva@gmail.com)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.4 Combinations: Further Examples 20
TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................. 2 1.5 Number Theory 31
1. PROBABILITY WITH COUNTING ........... 3 1.6 Geometry and Grids 36
1.7 Bayes Theorem 41
1.1 Basics 3 1.8 Birthday Problem 41
1.2 Permutations 13 1.9 Further Topics 46
1.3 Combinations 14
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1. PROBABILITY WITH COUNTING

1.1 Basics
A. Enumeration
Example 1.1
If Jeff picks one letter randomly from the alphabet, what is the probability that the letter is in the word
`PROBABILITY'? (CEMC 2009 Gauss 8)
If a letter occurs more than once in PROBABILITY, it does not increase the probability of it being picked, since
we are choosing from the English Alphabet.
Hence, we count the distinct letters in PROBABILITY which are:
{𝑃, 𝑅, 𝑂, 𝐵, 𝐴, 𝐼, 𝐿, 𝑇, 𝑌} = 9 𝐿𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠
9
26
Example 1.2
Each of the ten letters in “MATHCOUNTS” is written on its own square tile and placed in a bag. What is the
probability that a tile randomly selected from the bag will have a letter on it that is in the word ``TEACH''?
Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2004 State Countdown)
Here, each letter is written on its own tile. Hence, if the letter occurs more than once, it will be written on a tile
more than once.
Hence, we want to count not only the distinct letters, but also the number of times the letter is repeated.
The letters that we want are the ones that are in both MATHCOUNTS and TEACH, which are:
{ATHCT}
5 1
𝑃= =
10 2
Example 1.3
If you flip a fair coin four times, what is the probability of flipping at least three heads in a row? Express your
answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2005 Chapter Countdown)
{𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻𝐻} ⇒ 3 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 24 = 16
3
𝑃=
16
Example 1.4
Three students, with different names, line up single file. What is the probability that they are in alphabetical
order from front-to-back? (AMC 8 1997/9)
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Ways to Arrange
The number of ways to arrange three people is
3! = 6 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
Successful Outcomes
Out of which, the outcomes where they will be in alphabetical order is only
{𝐴𝐵𝐶} = 1 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
1
𝑃=
6
Example 1.5
A three-digit integer contains one of each of the digits 1, 3, and 5. What is the probability that the integer is
divisible by 5? (AMC 8 2009/13)
2 1
{𝟏𝟑𝟓, 153, 𝟑𝟏𝟓, 351,513,531} = =
6 3
𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 5 2 1

= =
𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 3 𝑑𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑡𝑠 6 3
Example 1.6
The integers 𝑟 and 𝑘 are randomly selected, where −3 < 𝑟 < 6 and 1 < 𝑘 < 8. What is the probability that the
division 𝑟 ÷ 𝑘 is an integer value? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2007 National
Sprint)
Total Outcomes
For choosing
𝑟
𝑘
We need to select the numerator and the denominator. For this, we have
𝐶ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟: 5 − (−2) + 1 = 5 + 2 + 1 = 8
𝐶ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟: 7 − 2 + 1 = 5 + 1 = 6
Total Choices
6 × 8 = 48
Successful Outcomes
Here, we tabulate each value of r, and see the values of k that give us an integer.
𝑟 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
𝑘 2 3 4 5 6 7
Integers 2 2,3,4,5,6,7 2 3 2,4 5

How 1 0 6 0 1 1 2 1 12
many
Successful Outcomes
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𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 12 1
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑡𝑦 = = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 48 4
Example 1.7
If three standard, six-faced dice are rolled, what is the probability that the sum of the three numbers rolled is 9?
Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2009 State Sprint)
All three rolls are the same:

3,3,3: 1 Outcome
Two rolls are the same:

2, 2, 5
4,4,1
2 Possibilities * 2 = 4
All rolls are distinct:

1,2,6
1,3,5
2,3,4
3 Possibilities * 6 Outcomes = 9
B. Multiplication Principle
The multiplication principle from counting can be very useful when counting the number of ways that
something can be achieved.
Example 1.8
I add two distinct prime numbers less than 100. What is the probability that the sum is even?
The prime numbers less than 100 are:

2,3,5,7, … 97 ⇒ 25 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠
To get an even sum, we must have:

𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛 + 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛 = 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛
𝑂𝑑𝑑 + 𝑂𝑑𝑑 = 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛
We are picking two numbers out of 25, which gives me:

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 25 ⏟ × 24
⏟
𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟
And we cannot pick either of the numbers to be even, giving us:

𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 24 ⏟ × 23
⏟
𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 24 × 23 23
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 25 × 24 25
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Example 1.9
On the game show Wheel of Fraction, you see the following spinner. Given that each region is the same area,
what is the probability that you will earn exactly 1700 in your first three spins? Express your answer as a
common fraction. (MathCounts 1998 Chapter Sprint)
6/125
Example 1.10
In a class of 20 students, all but 4 of the students put their names on a typed assignment. If the teacher
randomly guesses, what is the probability that she correctly guesses which paper belongs to each of the four
remaining students? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2009 State Countdown)
Multiplication Principle
The number of ways of correctly guessing each student’s paper is only
1
But, by the multiplication principle, the options that she for guessing are:
4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 4! = 24
And the probability is:
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1 1
= =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 4! 24
Multiplying Probabilities
1 1 1
× × × ⏟
1
⏟
4 ⏟
3 ⏟
2 𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑆𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑆𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑆𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑑 𝑆𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡
𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡
Example 1.11
Seven cards each containing one of the following letters C, B, T, A, E, M and H are placed in a hat. Each letter is
used only once. Stu will pull four cards out at random and without replacement. What is the probability that Stu
pulls out M, A, T, H in this order? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2009 Warm-up 3)
Successful Outcomes
= 1 𝑊𝑎𝑦
Total Outcomes
= 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 = 840
Probability
1
=
840
1 1 1 1 1
× × × =
⏟
7 ⏟
6 ⏟5 ⏟
4 840
𝑃(𝑀) 𝑃(𝐴 | 𝑀) 𝑃(𝑇 | 𝑀,𝐴) 𝑃(𝐻 | 𝑀,𝐴,𝑇)
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Example 1.12
Megan has lost Fatima's phone number. Megan knows that the first three digits are either 296 or 299. The
remaining four digits are 0, 1, 6 and 7, but she isn't sure of the order of these digits. If Megan randomly dials a
seven-digit number that meets these conditions, what is the probability that she dials Fatima's correct number?
Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2005 National Sprint)
For the first three digits, the options are:

296 𝑂𝑅 299 ⇒ 2 𝑂𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
By the multiplication principle, the next four digits can be arranged in
4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 4! = 24
The total ways are
2 × 24 = 48
But, there is only one correct phone number. And, hence, the probability is:
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1
=
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 48
Example 1.13
All 50 states as well as the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, have distinct two-letter postal abbreviations. If
a two-letter sequence of letters (such as CO or EE) is chosen at random, what is the probability that it is a postal
abbreviation for one of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, or Puerto Rico? Express your answer as a
common fraction. (MathCounts 2006 National Countdown)
There are 52 abbreviations, giving

52 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
By the multiplication principle, a two-letter sequence of characters can be chosen in:
26 × 26 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
And, hence, the probability is:
= =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 26 × 26 13
Example 1.14
A data science team has three members who have a degree in statistics, and seven members who have a degree
in computer science. If two members of the data science team are picked at random, find the probability that
both of them have a degree in statistics.
Suppose that order is important in the selection. Then, by the multiplication principle:
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 3×2 6 1
= = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 10 × 9 90 15
Alternate Method: Multiplying Probabilities

Break the selection into two parts:
➢ Selecting First Person
➢ Selecting Second Person
Probability of both being Data Science:

3 2 6 1
= × = =
⏟
10 ⏟
9 90 15
𝑺𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑺𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈
𝟏𝒔𝒕 𝑷𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒐𝒏 𝟐𝒏𝒅 𝑷𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒐𝒏
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Example 1.15
A European train compartment has six seats (A, B, C, D, E, F). Four of the seats (B, C, E, F) are broken. Wilhelm
needs to fill out a form to indicate that there are broken seats. If he randomly checks off four of the seats in a
diagram with six seats (A,B, C, D, E, F), what is the probability that he marked the correct seats? Express your
answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2006 Warm-Up 12, Adapted)
The number of ways of choosing the correct seats are:

4×3×2×1
And the total number of ways of choosing the seats are:
6×5×4×3
And hence the probability is:
4×3×2×1 1
=
6 × 5 × 4 × 3 15
Example 1.16
There are four hotels in a town. If three men check into the hotels in a day, what is the probability that each
checks into a different hotel? (JMET 2011/75)
4×3×2 3
=
4×4×4 8
Example 1.17
Four standard six-sided dice are rolled. What is the probability that the product of the numbers on the top faces
of all four dice is a prime number? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2009 School
Countdown)
12/(6^4) = 2/6^3 = 1/108
Example 1.18
Three red beads, two white beads, and one blue bead are placed in line in random order. What is the probability
that no two neighboring beads are the same color? (AMC 10B 2008/22)
Number the balls to distinguish them, so that we get

𝑅1 , 𝑅2 , 𝑅3 , 𝑊1 , 𝑊2 , 𝐵1 ⇒ 6! 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒
Arrange the Red Balls

Suppose the left-most bead is a red bead. Then, the two possible arrangements are:
𝑅 − 𝑅 − 𝑅 − ,⏟
⏟ 𝑅 − −𝑅 − 𝑅
𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝐼 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝐼𝐼
The red balls can be arranged in

3 × 2 × 1 = 3! = 6 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
Arrange the White and Blue Balls

Case I: There are three balls, which can be arranged any way we want. So, the number of ways to arrange 3 balls
in 3 places is:
3 × 2 × 1 = 3! = 6
Case II: The blue ball cannot go in the rightmost position (otherwise there will be two consecutive white balls).
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Hence, the number of ways to arrange the balls is:

⏟
2 × ⏟ 2 × ⏟
1 =4
𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒
The total number of ways from Case I and Case II are:
6 + 4 = 10 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
The total number of ways of arranging all the balls is then
⏟
6 × 10 ⏟ = 60
𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒
𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒
Symmetry
However, we also need to consider the case where a red ball is not the first ball. This leads to the following two
cases:
−𝑅 − 𝑅 − 𝑅 , ⏟
⏟ 𝑅 − 𝑅 − −𝑅
Note that, by symmetry, the number of ways here is exactly the same as when the first ball is red:
60 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
Hence, the total number of ways of arranging the balls is:
60 + 60 = 120 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
Final Answer
The probability is given by:
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 120 5! 1
= = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6! 5! × 6 6
Example 1.19
The alternating sum of the digits of 63 195 is 6 − 3 + 1 − 9 + 5 = 0. In general, the alternating sum of the digits
of a positive integer is found by taking its leftmost digit, subtracting the next digit to the right, adding the next
digit to the right, then subtracting, and so on. A positive integer is divisible by 11 exactly when the alternating
sum of its digits is divisible by 11. For example, 63 195 is divisible by 11 since the alternating sum of its digits is
equal to 0, and 0 is divisible by 11. Similarly, 92 807 is divisible by 11 since the alternating sum of its digits is
22, but 60 432 is not divisible by 11 since the alternating sum of its digits is 9.
Lynne forms a 7-digit integer by arranging the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 in random order. What is the probability
that the integer is divisible by 11? (CEMC Grade 8 2015/25)
Let the integer be

𝑎𝑏𝑐𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑔
If we apply the test of divisibility by 11:

(𝑎 + 𝑐 + 𝑒 + 𝑔) − ⏟
𝑆=⏟ (𝑏 + 𝑑 + 𝑓)
𝑀 𝑁
The max value that S can take is:
{𝑎, 𝑐, 𝑒, 𝑓} = {4,5,6,7}
{𝑏, 𝑑, 𝑓} = {1,2,3}
𝑀𝑎𝑥 = 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 − 1 − 2 − 3 = 16
The min value that S can take is:
{𝑎, 𝑐, 𝑒, 𝑓} = {1,2,3,4}
{𝑏, 𝑑, 𝑓} = {5,6,7}
𝑀𝑎𝑥 = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 − 5 − 6 − 7 = −8
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If the number is to be divisible by 11, the values that S can take:

𝑆 ∈ {0,11}
𝑀 + 𝑁 = 𝑎 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 + 𝑑 + 𝑒 + 𝑔 = 28
𝑀 + 𝑁 = 28 ⏟
𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛
Since the RHS is even, the LHS has to have both terms of same parity.
Case I
𝑆 = 𝑀 − 𝑁 = 11
⏟
𝑂𝑑𝑑
Since the RHS is odd, both terms must be of different parity.
𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
Case II
𝑆 = 0 ⇒ 𝑀 − 𝑁 = 0 ⇒ 𝑀 = 𝑁 = 14
Hence, we need to partition the set {1,2,3,4,5,6,7} with three numbers in one part, and four numbers in the
second part such that the total of each is 14.
We focus on the set with three terms. The conditions for the set with four terms is automatically met:
{7,6,1}, {7,5,2}, {7,4,3}{6,5,3} ⇒ 3! = 6 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
Each set above corresponds to the remaining four numbers that go in the second set:
{2,3,4,5}{1,3,4,6}{1,2,5,6}{1,2,4,7} ⇒ 4! = 24 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
Therefore, the total number of successful ways is:

6 × 24 × 4
And the total number of ways to make a seven-digit number:

7!
And now the probability
6 × 24 × 4 4
= =
7! 35
C. Repetition
Example 1.20
The 600 students at King Middle School are divided into three groups of equal size for lunch. Each group has
lunch at a different time. A computer randomly assigns each student to one of three lunch groups. The
probability that three friends, Al, Bob, and Carol, will be assigned to the same lunch group is approximately
(AMC 8 1986/24)
Al, Bob and Carol each have three choices, which are independent, and hence
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 33 = 27
Since, there are three groups, the three friends can all be together in the first group, the second group, or the
third group, in a total of
3 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
And hence, the probability is:

= =
Example 1.21
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Lucia flips a coin three times. What is the probability that she gets Head-Tail-Head, in that order? Express your
answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2004 State Countdown)
By the multiplication principle, there are:

2 × 2 × 2 = 8 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
To flip a coin three times
And only one way to get

𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑 − 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙 − 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑 (𝐼𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑂𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑟)

=
Example 1.22
Four fair coins are to be flipped. What is the probability that all four will be heads or all four will be tails?
Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2011 State Countdown)
By the multiplication principle, there are:

2 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 16 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
To flip a coin four times
And the ways to get all heads or all tails is:

𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 ⇒ 2 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠

= =
Example 1.23
If you flip a fair coin four times, what is the probability of flipping at least three heads in a row? Express your
answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2005 Chapter Countdown)
3/16
Example 1.24
Each outcome on the spinner below has equal probability. If you spin the spinner three times
and form a three-digit number from the three outcomes, such that the first outcome is the
hundreds digit, the second outcome is the tens digit and the third outcome is the units digit,
what is the probability that you will end up with a three-digit number that is divisible by 4?
Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2003 School Target)
Successful Outcomes
Consider the test of divisibility by four. Since it only depends on the last two digits, we ignore the first digit.
3 cannot be the last digit, since it is an odd number. The valid two-digit number are
12, 32 ⇒ 2 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠
Total Outcomes
The first digit has three outcomes, and the second digit also has three outcomes, giving us
P a g e 11 | 46
3 × 3 = 9 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Probability
And hence, the probability is
=
Example 1.25
What is the probability of rolling six standard, six-sided dice and getting six distinct numbers? Express your
answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2010 National Sprint)
Successful Outcomes
By the multiplication principle, the number of ways we can get six distinct outcomes is:
6×5×4×3×2×1
Total Outcomes
When we roll six standard, six-sided dice, the total number of outcomes is
6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 = 66
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6! 5
𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = 6=
Example 1.26
The faces of an octahedral die are labeled with digits 1 through 8. What is the probability, expressed as a
common fraction, of rolling a sum of 15 with a pair of such octahedral dice? (MathCounts 1994 Chapter
Countdown)
The ways of getting a sum of 15 are:

{7 + 8,8 + 7} ⇒ 2 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
The total number of outcomes when rolling two eight-sided dice is
8 × 8 = 64
= =
Example 1.27
Flora the frog starts at 0 on the number line and makes a sequence of jumps to the right. In any one jump,
1
independent of previous jumps, Flora leaps a positive integer distance m with probability 2𝑚. What is the
probability that Flora will eventually land at 10? (AMC 12A 2023/17)
No matter the choice of length of step, the probability of making a jump of 10 is:
1 1
10
=
2 1024
We need to calculate the number of paths that go from 0 to 10.

For each number 1 to 9, we have the choice of including, or not including that number in the path. Hence, the
total number of paths is:
2 × 2 × 2 … × 2 = 29
29 1
10
=
2 2
P a g e 12 | 46
D. Enumeration
Example 1.28
Mike and Alain play a game in which each player is equally likely to win. The first player to win three games
becomes the champion, and no further games are played. If Mike has won the first game, what is the probability
that Mike becomes the champion? (Gauss Grade 8 2017/23)
The current score is: 1 1 4

2× = =
1−0 8 4 16
Mike needs to win 2 games more to win. We Case III: Mike wins in exactly four more games
consider cases. {𝑊𝐿𝐿𝑊, 𝐿𝑊𝐿𝑊, 𝐿𝐿𝑊𝑊}
Case I: Mike wins in exactly two more games 1 3
3× =
1 1 1 4 16 16
𝑃(𝑊𝑊) = × = = Hence, the final answer is:
2 2 4 16
Case II: Mike wins in exactly three more games 4 4 3 11
+ + =
{𝐿𝑊𝑊, 𝑊𝐿𝑊} 16 16 16 16
1.2 Permutations
A. Permutations with Repetition
Example 1.29
Three red beads, two white beads, and one blue bead are placed in line in random order. What is the probability
that no two neighboring beads are the same color? (AMC 10B 2008/22)
Arrange all the Balls

Since the balls are not distinguishable, we count the Symmetry
number of ways they can be arranged using We also need to consider the case where a red ball
permutations with repetition: is not the first ball. This leads to the following two
6! cases:
= 60
3! 2! 1! −𝑅 − 𝑅 − 𝑅 , ⏟
⏟ −𝑅 − 𝑅 − −𝑅
Arrange the Red Balls By symmetry, the number of ways here is exactly
Suppose the left-most bead is a red bead. Then, the the same as when the first ball is red:
two possible arrangements are: 5 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝑅 −𝑅 − 𝑅 − ,⏟
⏟ 𝑅 − −𝑅 − 𝑅 Hence, the total number of ways of arranging the
𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝐼 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝐼𝐼 balls is:
5 + 5 = 10 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
Arrange the White and Blue Balls
The only parameter distinguishing the Final Answer
arrangements is the location of the blue ball, which The probability is given by:
can happen in 𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 10 1
3 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠 + ⏟ 2 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 5 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠 = =
⏟ 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 60 6
P a g e 13 | 46
1.3 Combinations
A. Overcounting
Example 1.30
A domino is a rectangular tile composed of two squares. An integer is represented on both squares, and each
integer 0-9 is paired with every integer 0-9 exactly once to form a complete set. A double is a domino that has
the same integer on both of its squares. What is the probability that a domino randomly selected from a set will
be a double? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 1999 Warm-Up 12)
Number of Doubles
There are ten integers, giving us
10 𝑑𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠
Number of Non-Doubles
There are ten integers, each of which can be paired with the remaining nine integers. The total number of non-
double dominoes should be:
9 × 10
But, since dominoes can be rotated, a 2 − 3 domino can be rotated to give a 3 − 2 domino. And hence the above
overcounts by a factor of two, so the actual number of non-double dominoes is
9 × 10
= 45 𝑁𝑜𝑛 − 𝐷𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠
2
Total Number of Dominoes
= 10 + 45 = 55
Probability
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝐷𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 10 2
= = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝐷𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 + 𝑁𝑜𝑛 − 𝐷𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 10 + 45 11
B. Combinations
Example 1.31
I have 12 chocolates, out of which 8 are strawberry chocolates. I choose 3 chocolates from the 12. What is the
probability that:
A. All three are strawberry
B. None of them are strawberry
Part A
We can do this with combinations:
8 8! 8×7×6
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 ( ) 8×7×6 14
𝑃= = 3 = 3! 5! = 3! = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 12 12! 12 × 11 × 10 12 × 11 × 10 55
( )
3 3! 9! 3!
We can do this with the multiplication principle:

𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 8×7×6 14
𝑃= = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 12 × 11 × 10 55
Part B
4
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 ( ) 1
𝑃= = 3 =
( ) 55
3
P a g e 14 | 46
Example 1.32
Three cards are dealt from a standard deck. Find the probability that we get:
A. Exactly one heart
B. At least one heart
Part A
13 39
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 ( ) ( ) 13 × 39 × 38 3(13 × 39 × 38)
𝑃= = 1 2 = 2 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 52 52 × 51 × 50 52 × 51 × 50
( )
3 3!
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 13 × 39 × 38 + 39 × 13 × 38 + 39 × 38 × 13 3(13 × 39 × 38)

𝑃= = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 52 × 51 × 50 52 × 51 × 50
Part B
The probability of at least one heart
39
( ) 997
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑍𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠) = 1 − 3 =
52
( ) 1700
3
38 37 36 997
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑍𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠) = 1 − ( ) ( ) ( ) =
52 51 50 1700
Example 1.33
Harold tosses a nickel four times. What is the probability that he gets at least as many heads as tails? (AMC 8
2002/21)
The number of equiprobable outcomes when tossing a coin four times:

= 24 = 16
To find the required probability, we write the sample space (note that it is not equiprobable):
(𝐻, 𝑇) = (0,4)(1,3)(2,2)(3,1)(4,0)
Out of these, the successful outcomes are:
(0,4)(1,3) (2,2)(3,1)(4,0)
⏟
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
We use complementary counting and find the probability of the unsuccessful outcomes:
0 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 ⇒ 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 ⇒ 1 𝑊𝑎𝑦
1 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 ⇒ 𝐻𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 ⇒ 4 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
4 4
( ) ( ) 1 4 5
𝑃(0 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) + 𝑃(1 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑) = 0 + 1 = + =
16 16 16 16 16
And, finally, the probability that we want is:
5 11
1− =
16 16
Example 1.34
What is the probability that a two-digit number selected at random has a tens digit less than its units digit?
P a g e 15 | 46
Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2001 National Countdown)
Successful Outcomes
For a number to have its units digit less than its ten’s digit:
➢ The two digits cannot be equal
➢ For any pair of unequal digits, we can make only one number with them.
Hence,
9 9×8
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = ( ) = = 9 × 4 = 36
2 2
Total Outcomes
If we choose a two-digit number, it can be any number from 10 to 99, which gives
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 99 − 10 + 1 = 100 − 1 = 90
Probability
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = =
Example 1.35
A European train compartment has six seats (𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶, 𝐷, 𝐸, 𝐹). Four of the seats (𝐵, 𝐶, 𝐸, 𝐹) are broken. Wilhelm
needs to fill out a form to indicate that there are broken seats. If he randomly checks off four of the seats in a
diagram with six seats (𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶, 𝐷, 𝐸, 𝐹), what is the probability that he marked the correct seats? Express your
answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2006 Warm-Up 12, Adapted)
Successful Outcomes
There is only one successful outcome: the correct choice of seat.
Total Outcomes
However, the total outcomes are the number of ways of selecting four seats out of six, which is
6
( ) = 15
4
Probability
And, hence, the probability is
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1
=
Example 1.36
Of the final five contestants in a television show, three are female and two are male. If two are chosen randomly
to be the final contestants, what is the probability that both are female? Express your answer as a common
fraction. (MathCounts 2004 State Sprint)
Total Outcomes
The number of ways of selecting two contestants from five is
5
( ) = 10
2
Successful Outcomes
The number of ways of selecting two female contestants from the three available female contestants is:
3
( )=3
2
Probability
=
P a g e 16 | 46
Example 1.37
A data science team has three members with a degree in statistics, and seven members with a degree in
computer science. If two members of the data science team are picked at random, find the probability that:
A. Both of them have a degree in statistics.
B. Both of them have a degree in computer science
C. One of them has a degree in statistics and the other has a degree in computer science.
The number of ways of choosing two members from a team of ten members is given by:
10 10 × 9
( )= = 45
2 2
Part A
Probability that both have a degree in Statistics:
3
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 (2) 3 1
= = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 45 45 15
Part B
Probability that both have a degree in Computer Science:
7
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 (2) 21 7
= = =
Part C
Probability that one has a degree in statistics and the other has a degree in Computer Science:
3 7
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 (1)(1) 3 × 7 7
= = =
Alternate Method: Complementary Counting

1 7 7
𝑃(𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡, 𝐶𝑆) = 1 − − =
⏟
15 ⏟
15 15
𝑃(𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡,𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡) 𝑃(𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡,𝐶𝑆)
C. Drawing without Replacement
Example 1.38
A jar contains two red marbles, three green marbles, ten white marbles and no other marbles. Two marbles are
randomly drawn from this jar without replacement. What is the probability that these two marbles drawn will
both be red? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2008 Chapter Sprint)
2 1 1
× =
15 14 105
Combinations
2
( ) 1 1
2 = =
15 15 × 14 105
( )
2 2
2×1
15 × 14
P a g e 17 | 46
Example 1.39
Three marbles are randomly selected, without replacement, from a bag containing two red, two blue and two
green marbles. What is the probability that one marble of each color is selected? Express your answer as a
common fraction. (MathCounts 2002 State Countdown)
The successful number of ways to select one red, one blue and one green marble is:
2 2 2
( ) × ( ) × ( ) =2×2×2=8
⏟1 ⏟1 ⏟1
𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒
And the number of ways of selecting three marbles from six is”
6 6×5×4
( )= = 20
3 2×3
And the probability is

= =
Example 1.40
Steve has three quarters, three nickels and three pennies. If Steve selects three coins at random and without
replacement, what is the probability that the total value is exactly 35 cents? Express your answer as a common
fraction. (MathCounts 2005 Workout)
(Hint: A quarter is 25 cents, a nickel is five cents and a penny is one cent.)
The only way to get 35 cents is

𝑂𝑛𝑒 𝑄𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑒𝑟 + 𝑇𝑤𝑜 𝑁𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑙𝑠
The number of ways to select one quarter and two nickels is

3 3 3
( ) ( ) ( ) =3×3×1=9
⏟ 1 ⏟2 ⏟
0
𝑄𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑁𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑙𝑠 𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑠
The number of ways of selecting three coins out of nine is

9 9×8×7
( )= =3×4×7
3 2×3
9 3
=
3 × 4 × 7 28
Example 1.41
Three cards selected at random without replacement from a standard deck of cards are all the same suit. What
is the probability that exactly one of them is a face card?
We already know that all the cards are from the same suit. Hence, our universe of possibilities shrinks to 13
cards that represent a single suit.
Successful Outcomes
We want to select one face card out of three, and the remaining two cards non-face cards from the ten non-face
cards, which can be done in:
P a g e 18 | 46
3 10 10 × 9
( ) × ( ) =3× = 3 × 5 × 9 = 135
⏟1 ⏟2 𝟐
𝐶ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 1 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝐶ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 2 𝐶𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠
𝐶𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 3 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 10 𝑁𝑜𝑛−𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠
Total Outcomes
The total number of ways to choose three cards from a suit of thirteen cards is given by:
13 13 × 12 × 11
( )= = 13 × 2 × 11 = 286
3 2×3
Probability
And hence the final probability is given by:
135
286
D. Mixing
Example 1.42
Without looking at the labels, Adrien placed four CDs in four cases. What is the probability that exactly two of
the CDs are in the wrong cases? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2001 National Target)
The total number of ways to place four CDs in four cases is, by the multiplication principle
4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 4! = 24
The number of ways that we can get exactly two of these CD’s wrongly placed is
4 4×3
( )= =6
2 2
And hence the probability is

6 1
=
24 4
Example 1.43
Considering the previous example, answer the following questions:
1. What is the probability that exactly three of the CD’s are in the wrong cases?
2. What is the probability that exactly one of the CD’s is in the wrong case?
You put three CD’s correctly in three cases, as below:

(𝑅𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡)
⏟ (𝑅𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡)
⏟ ( )
⏟
𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑑 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒
There is only one CD left, and only one case left. Since the remaining three CD’s have gone to the correct places,
the fourth CD must also go into the only slot left, which must also be correct.
By Symmetry, and using the logic above, three CD’s in three wrong cases is also not possible.
(𝑊𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑔)
⏟ (𝑊𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑔)
⏟ (𝑊𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑔)
⏟
𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑑 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒
E. Sitting in a Row
Example 1.44
Juhi and Ruhi go to a marriage. After taking their dinner from the self-service buffet, they spy a row of seven
chairs and decide to sit there. If they sit randomly and independently (on two different chairs), what is the
probability that:
A. They sit next to each other.
P a g e 19 | 46
B. They do not sit next to each other.

C. They sit with a gap of exactly one chair between them.
Total Ways
The total number of ways that two people can sit on seven chairs is:
7
( ) = 21
2
Part A: Sitting Next to each Other
The number of ways they can sit next to each other is:
(1,2)(2,3)(3,4)(4,5)(5,6)(6,7) ⇒ 6 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
And hence, the probability that they will sit next to each other is:
6 2
=
21 7
Part B: Not sitting next to each Other
The probability of not sitting next to each other:
2 5
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑆𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑁𝑒𝑥𝑡 𝑡𝑜 𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟) = 1 − =
7 7
Part C: Gap of one Chair
The number of ways they can sit next to each other is:
(1,3)(2,4)(3,5)(4,6)(5,7) ⇒ 5 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
And hence, the probability that they will sit next to each other is:
5
21
1.4 Combinations: Further Examples

A. Casework
Example 1.45
Abby, Bridget, and four of their classmates will be seated in two rows of three for a group picture, as shown.
𝑋 𝑋 𝑋
𝑋 𝑋 𝑋
If the seating positions are assigned randomly, what is the probability that Abby and Bridget are adjacent to
each other in the same row or the same column? (AMC 8 2018/11)
The number of ways Abby and Bridget to choose two positions of the six available is
6 6!
( )= = 15
2 2! 4!
Consider cases for when Abby and Bridget are next to each other.
Case I: Abby and Bridget are in the same column

3 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
1𝑠𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 2𝑛𝑑 𝐶𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 3𝑟𝑑 𝐶𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛

𝑿 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑿 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑿
𝑿 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑿 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑿
Case II: Abby and Bridget are in the same row

4 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
P a g e 20 | 46
1𝑠𝑡 𝑅𝑜𝑤 2𝑛𝑑 𝑅𝑜𝑤

𝑿 𝑿 𝑋 𝑋 𝑿 𝑿 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋
𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑋 𝑿 𝑿 𝑋 𝑋 𝑿 𝑿
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 3 + 4 7
B. Parity
Example 1.46
Four prime numbers are randomly selected without replacement from the first ten prime numbers. What is the
probability that the sum of the four selected numbers is odd? Express your answer as a common fraction.
(MathCounts 2001 Warm-Up 10)
We do this using casework. There is only one even prime number, which is 2. Suppose it is not selected. Then,
the sum will be
𝑂 + 𝑂 + 𝑂 + 𝑂 = 𝐸 + 𝐸 = 𝐸 ⇒ 𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑑
If the number 2 is selected, then we have
𝐸
⏟+ 𝑂 + 𝑂⏟+ 𝑂 = 𝑂 + 𝐸 = 𝑂 ⇒ 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑑
𝑂 𝐸
Combinations1
Hence, we need to select the number two, which can be done in
1 𝑊𝑎𝑦
And we need to select three numbers from the remaining nine, which can be done in
9 9×8×7
( )=
3 2×3
1 9
( )( )
1 3 = 84 = 2
10 210 5
( )
4
C. Symmetry
Example 1.47
Five people are randomly selected from five peasants, two werewolves, and two warriors. If the number of
werewolves is greater than the number of warriors, the werewolves win. If the number of warriors is greater
than the number of werewolves, the warriors win. Otherwise, there is a draw. Calculate the probability that:
A. The warriors win
B. The werewolves win
Count the number of ways there is a draw. Split into cases:

Case I: 𝑊𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟𝑠 = 𝑊𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑤𝑜𝑙𝑣𝑒𝑠 = 0
2 2 5
( )( )( ) = 1 ∙ 1 ∙ 1 = 1
0 0 5
Case II: 𝑊𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟𝑠 = 𝑊𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑤𝑜𝑙𝑣𝑒𝑠 = 1
2 2 5
( ) ( ) ( ) = 2 ∙ 2 ∙ 10 = 40
1 1 3
1This can be solved using multiplication of probabilities and complementary probabilities. For that solution see the Note
on Basic Probability.
P a g e 21 | 46
Case III: 𝑊𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟𝑠 = 𝑊𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑤𝑜𝑙𝑣𝑒𝑠 = 2

2 2 5
( )( )( ) = 1 ∙ 1 ∙ 5 = 5
2 2 1
1 + 40 + 5 46 23
𝑃(𝐷𝑟𝑎𝑤) = = =
9 126 63
( )
5
Since the sum of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events is 1:

𝑃(𝑊𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟𝑠) + 𝑃(𝑊𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑤𝑜𝑙𝑣𝑒𝑠) + 𝑃(𝐷𝑟𝑎𝑤) = 1
By symmetry, 𝑃(𝑊𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑊𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑤𝑜𝑙𝑣𝑒𝑠) = 𝑝:

23 20
2𝑝 + =1⇒𝑝=
63 63
D. More Challenging Examples
Example 1.48
I choose four balls at random, without replacement from an urn that has ten red balls and two green balls. What
is the probability that both green balls are chosen?
We want to choose 4 balls out of 12, which can be done in:

12 12 × 11 × 10 × 9
( )= = 11 × 5 × 9
4 2×3×4
We have two green balls, and we want to choose both, and this can be done in:
2
( )=1
2
And we are free to choose whatever we want from the remaining ten balls, and this can be done in:
10 10 × 9
( )= =5×9
2 2
And now the probability is:
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 5×9 1
= =
2 10
( )( )
2 2 = 1
12 11
( )
4
Example 1.49
Suppose that after I wrote this problem, Richard Rusczyk thought he could be more clever than I could, so he
wrote his own problem. Suppose that both of our problems are in the set of 12 problems you are currently
working on. If you sat down at your computer this morning and randomly loaded 4 of the 12 problems, what is
the probability that both this problem and Richard Rusczyk's problem were among the four you loaded? (AOPS
Alcumus, Counting and Probability, Basic Probability with Combinations)
We want to choose 4 problems out of 12, which can be done in:

12 12 × 11 × 10 × 9
( )= = 11 × 5 × 9
4 2×3×4
We have to choose two specific problems (the question author’s problem, and Richard Rusczyk's), and this can
P a g e 22 | 46
be done in:
2
( )=1
2
And we are free to choose whatever we want from the remaining ten problems, and this can be done in:
10 10 × 9
( )= =5×9
2 2
And now the probability is:
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 5×9 1
= =
Example 1.50
Carlos has chosen twelve different compact discs (CDs) he would like to buy. Four are rap music, five are
country music, and three are heavy metal music. Carlos then randomly selects five of the 12 CDs to purchase.
What is the probability that his purchase includes at least one CD from each of the three categories? Express
your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2004 State Team)
Successful Outcomes
Calculate the required probability is difficult. We will instead calculate the complementary probability: that of
not picking one CD from each of the categories.
Even for the complementary probability, because of the numbers in the question, we need to do casework.
Case I: Carlos picks CDs of a single type:
Carlos is going to pick five CDs and there are only four rap music CDs, and three heavy metal music CDs. Hence,
𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 5 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑣𝑦 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝐷𝑠 = 0
𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 5 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑝 𝑚𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑐 𝐶𝐷𝑠 = 0
There are exactly five country music CDs, and hence the number of ways to pick
5
𝑂𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝑀𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑐 𝐶𝐷𝑆 = ( ) = 1
5
Case II: Carlos picks CDs of exactly two types:
There are three types of CDs. He can pick CDs of two different types in
3
( ) = 3 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
2
We now calculate the number of ways in which each of the above three ways can be achieved.
If he picks Country Music and Heavy Metal CDs only, it can be done in
5+3 8 8!
( )=( )= = 56 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
5 5 5! 3!
If he picks Rap Music and Heavy Metal Only, it can be done in
4+3 7 7!
( )=( )= = 21 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
5 5 5! 2!
If he picks Rap Music and Country Music, it can be done in:
5+4 9 9! 9×8×7×6
( )=( )= = = 126 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
5 5 5! 4! 4×6
Hence, the total number of ways should be

= 56 + 21 + 126 + 1 = 204
However, Case I already counted the number of ways to pick all 5 CDs as country music CDs. But, this was also
counted when
➢ Counting 56 ways to pick country music and heavy metal CDs
P a g e 23 | 46
➢ Counting 126 ways to pick rap music and country music CDs
Hence, we need to subtract these to avoid overcounting:
204 − 2 = 202
Total Outcomes
When calculating successful outcomes, we have used combinations throughout. To be consistent, use
combinations when calculating total outcomes.
The total number of ways to select five CDs out of the twelve available CDs is:
12
( ) = 792
5

The probability that we want is exactly the probability of the above event not happening, which is:
101 295
1− =
396 396
E. Repetition
Example 1.51
A fair coin is tossed six times and the sequence of heads and tails is recorded. What is the probability that the
sequence contains exactly two heads? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2003 Workout
7)
By the multiplication principle, the total number of outcomes is:

26 = 64
The number of ways of choosing two heads from six is
6
( )
2
6 6×5
( ) 15
Probability = 6 = 2 =
2
2 64 64
Revision 1.52
I toss a coin a few times. What is the number of outcomes if I toss the coin:
A. 3 times
B. 7 times
C. 𝑛 times
This is multiplication principle with repeated objects. Each coin toss gives us two outcomes. And each coin toss
is independent of the rest.
𝑇𝑜𝑠𝑠 3 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 ⇒ 23 = 8 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑇𝑜𝑠𝑠 7 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 ⇒ 27 = 128 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑇𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑛 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 ⇒ 2𝑛 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Revision 1.53
Ronald tosses some fair coins. What is the probability that he gets more heads than tails, if the number of coins
tossed is:
A. Seven
B. A hundred and one coins
C. 𝑛, 𝑛 ∈ 𝑂𝑑𝑑 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟
P a g e 24 | 46
Now, by symmetry, since

1
𝑃(𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) =
2
We should also have:
𝑃(𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 > 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 > 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = 𝑝 (𝑠𝑎𝑦)
And we know that
1
𝑝 + 𝑝 = 1 ⇒ 2𝑝 = 1 ⇒ 𝑝 =
2
In the above example, for all three parts, what is the probability that the number of heads is the same as the
number of tails?
In each part above, the coin is being tossed an odd number of times.
Odd numbers are not divisible by two.
Hence, the probability that the number of heads will equal the number of tails
=0
Example 1.54
Donald tosses some coins. What is the probability that he gets the same number of heads as tails, if the number
of coins tossed is:
A. Six
B. Eight
C. 𝑛, 𝑛 ∈ 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟
Part A
Total Outcomes
Since we have six coins being tossed, the total number of outcomes is
26 = 64
Successful Outcomes
Think the heads as H, and the tails as T, and then arrange them in a row. For example, an arrangement that
works is:
𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑇𝑇𝑇
If we want all arrangements that work, we can calculate the number of ways to place three H’s in six positions
(since then the T’s get automatically arranged), and this is:
6 6! 6×5×4
( )= = = 20
3 3! 3! 2×3
Probability
= =
Part B
Total Outcomes
Since we have six coins being tossed, the total number of outcomes is
28 = 256
Successful Outcomes
works is:
𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇
P a g e 25 | 46
8 8! 8×7×6×5
( )= = = 70
4 4! 4! 2×3×4
Probability
= =
Part C
Total Outcomes
Since we have 𝑛 coins being tossed, the total number of outcomes is
2𝑛
Successful Outcomes
works is:
𝐻𝐻𝐻 … 𝐻 ⏟
⏟ 𝑇𝑇𝑇 … 𝑇
𝑛 𝑛
ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠
2 2
𝑛 𝑛
𝐶
2
Probability
𝑛
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝐶𝑛
= 𝑛2
Example 1.55
What is the probability that the number of heads is more than the number of tails if you toss:
A. Six coins
B. Eight coins
C. 𝑛, 𝑛 ∈ 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟
Strategy
There are only three outcomes that can happen when tossing the coin:
➢ Outcome I: Heads more than tails
➢ Outcome II: Tails more than heads
➢ Outcome III: Tails equal to heads
And these three outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. Hence:
𝑃(𝐼) + 𝑃(𝐼𝐼) + 𝑃(𝐼𝐼𝐼) = 1
By symmetry
𝑃(𝐼) = 𝑃(𝐼𝐼) = 𝑝(𝑠𝑎𝑦)
Therefore,
2𝑝 + 𝑃(𝐼𝐼𝐼) = 1
And, now we can use the above to calculate each of the three parts of the question.
Part A
5 11 11
2𝑝 + = 1 ⇒ 2𝑝 = ⇒𝑝=
16 16 32
P a g e 26 | 46
Part B
35 93 93
2𝑝 + = 1 ⇒ 2𝑝 = ⇒𝑝=
128 128 256
Part C
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛
𝐶𝑛 2𝑛 − 𝐶𝑛 2𝑛 − 𝐶𝑛
2 2 2
2𝑝 + = 1 ⇒ 2𝑝 = ⇒𝑝=
2𝑛 2𝑛 2𝑛+1
Example 1.56
The chart below gives the air distance in miles between selected world cities. If two different cities from the
chart are chosen at random, what is the probability that the distance between them is less than 7000 miles?
Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2005 State Sprint)
4/6=2/3
Example 1.57
If the chance that a vessel arrives safely at a port is 9/10, what is the chance that out of 5 vessels expected at
least 4 will arrive safely (JMET 2011/74)
𝑎9𝑏
Write your answer in the form , where 𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐 are natural numbers.
10𝑐
9 5 5 9
4
1 95 5 × 94 9(94 ) + 5(94 ) 14(94 )
( ) + ( )( ) ( ) = 5 + = =
10 4 10 10 10 105 105 105
F. Multi-Tier Questions
Example 1.58
Joe will randomly select two letters from the word CAMP, four letters from the word HERBS, and three letters
from the word GLOW. What is the probability that he will have all of the letters from the word PROBLEM?
Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2004 National Target)
𝐶𝐴𝑴𝑷 + 𝐻𝑬𝑹𝑩𝑆 + 𝐺𝑳𝑶𝑊 = 𝑃𝑅𝑂𝐵𝐿𝐸𝑀

CAMP
1 1
=
4
( ) 6
2
HERBS
3 2
( )( ) 2
3 1 =
5 5
( )
4
GLOW
2 2
( )( ) 2 1
2 1 = =
4 4 2
( )
3
P a g e 27 | 46
1/6 * 2/5 * 1/2 = 1/30
Example 1.59
A school has three classrooms: one with five students, one with each six students, and one with seven students.
Each classroom also has a teacher and a co-teacher. One of the classrooms is selected at random, and three of
the people in the classroom are randomly selected to receive a mystery gift. What is the probability that both a
teacher and the co-teacher are among the ones selected for the gift?
Students 5 6 7
Teacher and Co-teacher 2 2 2
Total 7 8 9
2 5 2 6 2 7
1 (2) (1) (2) (1) (2) (1) 1 5 6 7 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 4 1
( + + )= ( + + )= ( + + )= ( + )= ( )=
3 7 8 9 3 35 56 3 × 4 × 7 3 7 28 12 3 4 12 3 12 9
( ) ( ) ( )
3 3 3
Example 1.60
A contest has a display window which houses urns. Black Green Yellow Total
There is one urn of type A, two urns of type B, and Balls Balls Balls
three urns of type C. Each urn of a particular type has A 2 1 5 8
the same content, which is given in the table below. B 3 4 3 10
A contestant must: C 4 2 3 9
➢ Choose a particular urn at random, and then
➢ Draw two balls at random from the urn chosen
Find the probability that, at the end of this two-step process:
A. Both the balls chosen are black
B. Both the balls chosen are green
C. Both the balls chosen are yellow
Picking the Urns

The probability of picking the urns is:
1 2 1 3 1
𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = = , 𝑃(𝐶) = =
6 6 3 6 2
Picking both Balls Black
Urn A
The probability of picking two black balls out of eight balls in all is given by
= =
( ) 28
2
Urn B
The probability of picking two black balls out of ten balls in all is given by
3
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 ( ) 3 1
= 2 = =
( ) 45 15
2
Urn C
The probability of picking two black balls out of nine balls in all is given by
P a g e 28 | 46
4
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 (2) 6 1
= = =
( ) 36 6
2
And then we can combine the probabilities:

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 281
× + × + × = + + =
6 28 3 15 2 6 168 45 12 2520
Picking both Balls Green

4 2
1 2 (2) 3 (2) 1 6 1 1 2 2 29
×0+ × + × = × + × = + =
6 6 (10) 6 (7) 3 45 2 21 45 42 315
2 2
Picking both Balls Yellow
5 3 3
1 (2) 2 (2) 3 (2) 1 10 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 251
× + × + × = × + × + × = + + =
6 (8) 6 (10) 6 (7) 6 28 3 45 2 21 168 45 14 2520
2 2 2
G. Repeated Trials
The key idea here is that since the drawing is with replacement, the underlying probabilities do not change after
each drawing. This reduces calculations.
Example 1.61
With a fair coin, what is the probability of getting
A. two heads in seven tosses
B. three heads in five tosses
C. two heads in eight tosses
D. three heads in ten tosses
Part A
Two Heads in Seven Tosses
Using the multiplication principle, the total number of outcomes when tossing seven coins is:
27 = 128
Out of this, the number of ways in which we can get two heads is given by:
7 7! 7×6
=( )= = = 21
2 2! 5! 2
Hence, the final probability is:
21
128
Three Heads in Five Tosses
1 1 1 1
𝑃(𝐻) = , 𝑃(𝑇) = ⇒ + = 1
2 2 2 2
5
(𝐻 + 𝑇) = ⋯ + ( ) 𝐻 3 𝑇 2 + ⋯
5
2
5 1 3 1 2 1 5
( ) ( ) ( ) = 10 × =
3 ⏟
2 ⏟2 32 16
𝟑 𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒅𝒔 𝟐 𝑻𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒔
Two Heads in Five Tosses
(𝐻 + 𝑇)8 = ⋯ + (8) 𝐻 2 𝑇 6 + ⋯
6
P a g e 29 | 46
8 1 2 1 6 8×7 1 7 7
( ) ( ) ( ) = × 8= 6=
2 ⏟ 2 ⏟
2 2 2 2 64
𝟐 𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒅𝒔 𝟐 𝑻𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒔
Three Heads in Ten Tosses
(𝐻 + 𝑇)10 = ⋯ + (10) 𝐻 3 𝑇 7 + ⋯
7
3 7
10 1 1 10 × 9 × 8 1
( )( ) ( ) = × 10
3 2 2 2×3 2
1 15
=5×3× 7 =
2 128
Example 1.62
I am equally likely to run on the treadmill or do weight training when I visit the gym (which I do every day).
What is the probability that I run on the treadmill exactly four days in the second week of February?
Imagine that you toss a fair coin every day when you reach the gym. If the result is heads, you run on the
treadmill. If the result is tails, you do weight training.
The second week of February has seven days. Out of the seven days, we want exactly four to be treadmill days.
Hence, the required probability is the same as the probability of exactly four heads in seven tosses, which is:
4
7 1 1 3 7×6×5 1 35
( )( ) ( ) = × 7=
4 2 2 2×3 2 128
Example 1.63
1 4
A. I have an unfair coin that comes up heads with probability 5, and tails with probability 5. If I toss it five
times, what is the probability that I get exactly three tails?
1
B. The probability that a student will clear the 𝐴𝑀𝐶 10 (and get selected for AIME) is 20. The probability
1
that a 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 will clear the 𝐴𝑀𝐶 10 is . If five 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 sit for the 𝐴𝑀𝐶 10, what is the
5
probability that exactly two of them clear 𝐴𝑀𝐶 10.
C. Is there a connection between Part A and Part B above? If so, what is it?
Part A
Consider a single toss:
1 4
𝑃(𝐻) = , 𝑃(𝑇) =
5 5
(𝐻 + 𝑇)5 = ⋯ + (5) 𝐻 2 𝑇 3 + ⋯
3
2
5 1 4 3 1 64 128
( ) ( ) ( ) = 10 × × =
3 5 5 25 125 625
Part B
2
5 1 4 3 1 64 128
( ) ( ) ( ) = 10 × × =
2 5 5 25 125 625
Part C
The answer for this question is the same as one asked before on coins. In fact, this can be seen by rewriting the
question:
1
𝐶𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐴𝑀𝐶 = 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 =
5
P a g e 30 | 46
1 4
𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐴𝑀𝐶 = 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 = 1 − =
5 5
Let number of heads be 𝐻.
Let number of tails be 𝑇.
Let number of students who clear be 𝑆.
128
𝑃(𝑆 = 2) = 𝑃(𝐻 = 2) = 𝑃(𝑇 = 3) =
625
H. Identities
Example 1.64
Flora the frog starts at 0 on the number line and makes a sequence of jumps to the right. In any one jump,
1
independent of previous jumps, Flora leaps a positive integer distance m with probability 2𝑚. What is the
probability that Flora will eventually land at 10? (AMC 12A 2023/17)
No matter the choice of length of step, the probability of making a jump of 10 is:
1 1
10
=
2 1024
We need to calculate the number of paths that go from 0 to 10. The number of hops in between 0 to 10 can be
anything from 0 to 9. We need to choose the positions of the hops. This can be done in:
9
𝑍𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝐻𝑜𝑝𝑠 = ( )
0
9
1 𝐻𝑜𝑝𝑠 = ( )
1
.
.
.
9
9 𝐻𝑜𝑝𝑠 = ( )
9
9 9 9 9 (𝐵𝑦
( ) + ( ) + ⋯+ ( ) = 2 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑦)
0 1 9

29 1
10
=
2 2
1.5 Number Theory
A. HCF
Example 1.65
Two different natural numbers are selected from the set {1, 2, 3,..., 6}. What is the probability that the greatest
common factor of these two numbers is one? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2003
Warm-Up 1)
Total Choices = 6C2 = 15

Choices that don't work
= (2,4)(2,6)(3,6)(4,6)
P(HCF>1) = 4/15
P a g e 31 | 46
P(HCF=1) = 1 -4/15 = 11/15
B. Prime Numbers
Example 1.66
Two different integers from 1 through 20 inclusive are chosen at random. What is the probability that both
numbers are prime? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2001 National Countdown)
𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 1 𝑡𝑜 20 𝑎𝑟𝑒 {2,3,5,7,11,13,17,19}

(8C2)/(20C2) = 14/95
Example 1.67
Four standard six-sided dice are to be rolled. What is the probability that the product of the numbers on the top
faces will be prime? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2009 State Countdown)
Successful Outcomes
The only factorization that a prime can have is 𝑝 × 1. Hence, to get the product as a prime number, we must
have some rearrangement of
1,1,1, 𝑝
We can choose the location of the prime in
(1,1,1, 𝑝), (1,1, 𝑝, 1), (1, 𝑝, 1,1)(𝑝, 1,1,1) ⇒ 4 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠
And for the value of the prime, we have
(2,3,5) ⇒ 3 𝐶ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠
By the multiplication principle, total ways are:
3 × 4 = 12
Total Outcomes
We roll four identical six-sided dice, which gives us (using repeated objects)
6 × 6 × 6 × 6 = 64 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Probability
12 2 1
4
= 3 =
6 6 108
C. Sum and Difference
Example 1.68
Two different numbers are selected simultaneously and at random from the set {1,2,3,4,5,6,7}. What is the
probability that the positive difference between the two numbers is 2 or greater? Express your answer as a
common fraction. (MathCounts 2003 Warm-Up 14)
Strategy
We could find the probability that the difference is two or greater. This would be the sum of the probabilities
𝑃(𝐷 = 2) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 3) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 4) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 5) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 6)
This is possible, but highly time-consuming, unless we find a shortcut. So, let have a look at all the probabilities
with respect to difference
𝑃(𝐷 = 1) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 2) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 3) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 4) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 5) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 6) = 1
Where we can make the last equality because the outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
And now we can rearrange the above to get:
P a g e 32 | 46
𝑃(𝐷 = 2) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 3) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 4) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 5) + 𝑃(𝐷 = 6) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐷 = 1)

And now the calculation becomes much easier since we only have to find a single probability.
Probability of Difference = 𝟏
For successful outcomes we have the pairs
(1,2)(2,3)(3,4)(4,5)(5,6)(6,7) ⇒ 6 𝑃𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑠
For total outcomes, we have
7
( ) = 21
2
6 2
=
21 7
Complementary Counting
By complementary counting, probability that the difference is two or greater is
2 5
1 − 𝑃(𝐷𝑖𝑓𝑓 𝑖𝑠 1) = 1 − =
7 7
D. Sum and Product
Example 1.69
If two numbers are randomly chosen without replacement from {1,2,3,4,5}, what is the probability their sum is
greater than their product? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2009 State Countdown)
Counting Principle
The only way that the sum will be greater than the product is if one of the numbers is one. Hence, the successful
outcomes are
(1,2)(1,3)(1,4)(1,5) ⇒ 4 𝑃𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑠
The total number of ways in which two distinct numbers can be chosen without replacement from four
numbers is
5 5×4
( )= = 10
2 2
Hence, the probability is
4 2
=
10 5
Algebra
𝑎𝑏 − (𝑎 + 𝑏) < 0
𝑎𝑏 − 𝑎 − 𝑏 < 0
𝑎𝑏 − 𝑎 − 𝑏 + 1 < 1
(𝑎 − 1)(𝑏 − 1) < 1
And the only values that will work are when
𝑎 = 1 𝑂𝑅 𝑏 = 1
Since in all other cases both factors on the LHS are greater than 1.
And since order is not important, we take the values when 𝑎 = 1:
(1,2)(1,3)(1,4)(1,5)
And then the solution follows as above.
E. Product
P a g e 33 | 46
Example 1.70
If two distinct members of the set {2,4,10,12,15,20,50} are randomly selected and multiplied, what is the
probability that the product is a multiple of 100? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts
2005 National Team)
We start with the largest number. Since we already have a 50, we just need the second number to be divisible by
2, giving us:
50 × {2,4,10,12,20} ⇒ 5 𝑃𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑠
We continue with the second largest number. Since we already have a 20, we just need the second number to be
divisible by 5, giving us:
20 × {10,15} ⇒ 2 𝑃𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑠
Note that we will not count 20 × 50 since we already counted that when counting the number of pairs with 50.
Total Pairs
=5+2=7
The number of ways of selecting two numbers out of a set of seven numbers is
7
( ) = 21
2
7 1
=
21 3
F. Multiples
Example 1.71
If two numbers will be randomly chosen without replacement from {3,4,5,6}, what is the probability that their
product will be a multiple of 9? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2011 State
Countdown)
1/(4C2)=1/6
Example 1.72
Two random real numbers are selected from the range 0.5 to 40.5, and then rounded to the nearest integer. If
both the numbers are the same after rounding, the process is repeated till the numbers are distinct. Find the
probability that both the numbers selected are multiples of 3 or 7.
On completing the process, we will get distinct numbers in the range

1,2,3, … ,40
Counting Multiples
𝑀𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 3 = {3,6, … ,39} = 13
𝑀𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 7 = {7,14, … ,35} = 5
𝑀𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 [𝐿𝐶𝑀(3,7) = 21] 𝑎𝑟𝑒 {21} = 1
𝑀(3) + 𝑀(7) − 𝑀(21) = 13 + 5 − 1 = 17
Outcomes
Successful Outcomes: We need to choose two numbers from among the seventeen available to us
17
( )
2
Total Outcomes: We have 40 numbers, from which we need to choose two:
40
( )
2
P a g e 34 | 46
Final probability
17 17 × 16
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 ( 2 ) 2 17 × 𝟏𝟔 34
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = = = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 40 40 × 39 𝟒𝟎 × 39 195
( )
2 2
Example 1.73
Ted is going to pick one number at random from the three numbers below:
200, 36, 250
Then he will pick any two distinct factors of that number at random. What is the probability that both the
factors he picks are a multiple of 2?
200
Factorize 200 to get:
200 = 23 × 52
Use the formula for the number of factors:
𝜏(200) = (3 + 1)(2 + 1) = 4 × 3 = 12
Out of the 12 factors, if want the number to be always a multiple of 2, then we must not always include that 2 in
our factors, and hence the number of available factors is:
3×3=9
And hence, if 200 is picked, the probability of getting both numbers as factors of 2 is:
9
( )
2 = 9×4 = 3
12
( ) 12 × 11 11
2
36
36 = 22 × 32 ⇒ 𝜏(36) = (2 + 1)(2 + 1) = 3 × 3 = 9
If 36 is picked, the probability of getting both numbers as factors of 2 is:

6
( ) 15 5
2 = =
9
( ) 36 12
2
250
250 = 2 × 53 ⇒ 𝜏(250) = (1 + 1)(3 + 1) = 2 × 4
And hence, if 250 is picked, the probability of getting both numbers as factors of 2 is:
4
( )
2 = 6 = 3
8
( ) 28 14
2
Bringing it together
The final probability is:
1 3 5 3 835
( + + )=
3 11 12 14 2772
P a g e 35 | 46
1.6 Geometry and Grids

A. 2D Grid
Example 1.74
On the grid shown, Jane starts at dot 𝐴. She tosses a fair coin to determine which way to
move. If she tosses a head, she moves up one dot. If she tosses a tail, she moves right one
dot. After four tosses of the coin, Jane will be at one of the dots 𝑃, 𝑄, 𝑅, 𝑆, or 𝑇. What is the
probability that Jane will be at dot 𝑅? (Gauss 7 2020/20)
The total number of outcomes when tossing a coin four times

2 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 24 = 16
Call moving up as U, and moving R as R.
The number of steps is 4.
And, to get to R from A, we need to move up twice, and to move right twice.
Hence, we need to find the number of ways to arrange two R’s and two U’s, which is given by:
4! 4×3
= =6
2! 2! 2
And hence the probability is given by:

= =
Example 1.75
A bug jumps from lattice point to lattice point on a piece of graph paper, one jump per second, according to the
following pattern: From (m, n), the bug jumps only to (m + 1, n) or (m, n + 1), each equally likely. Find all the
places the bug could be, two seconds after it leaves the origin (0, 0). Are all these places equally likely?
Bug
𝐵𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑚 𝐿𝑒𝑓𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑟: (−2, −2)
𝑇𝑜𝑝 𝑅𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑟: (2,2)
The bug must be in the range
(𝑥, 𝑦), −2 ≤ 𝑥, 𝑦 ≤ 2, 𝑥, 𝑦 ∈ ℤ
P a g e 36 | 46
Example 1.76
Eight points are spaced around at intervals of one unit around a 2 × 2 square, as shown. Two of the 8 points are
chosen at random. What is the probability that the two points are one unit apart? (AMC 8 2008/19)
Ans = 2/7
Example 1.77
A 2 by 2003 rectangle consists of unit squares as shown below. The middle unit square of each row is shaded. If
a rectangle from the figure is chosen at random, what is the
probability that the rectangle does not include a shaded
square? Express your answer as a common fraction.
(MathCounts 2004 National Sprint)
B. 3D Grids
Example 1.78
A bug starts at one vertex of a cube and moves along the edges of the cube according to the following rule. At
each vertex the bug will choose to travel along one of the three edges emanating from that vertex. Each edge has
equal probability of being chosen, and all choices are independent. What is the probability that after seven
moves the bug will have visited every vertex exactly once? (AMC 10A 2006/25)
Call the vertex that the bug starts at 𝐴.

3
The probability of choosing a good path is 3 = 1. Call the vertex that the bug
goes to 𝐵.
2
Now, the probability of choosing a good path is 3. Call the “good” vertex that it
reaches 𝐶.
Now, split into Cases.
Case I: Bug goes to D

Bug must go to E.
At E, there are two paths: 𝐹𝐺𝐻 and 𝐻𝐺𝐹
Case II: Bug goes to H
P a g e 37 | 46
There is only one path: 𝐺𝐹𝐸𝐷
3 2 3 2 2
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = × × = =
⏟
3 ⏟
3 ⏟
35 3 5 243
𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝑀𝑜𝑣𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑣𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑠
Example 1.79
What is the probability that the triangle formed by choosing three distinct
vertices from a cube is:
A. Equilateral
B. Right-Angled
C. Isosceles
The number of ways to choose 3 vertices from 8 is:

8 8! 8×7×6
( )= = = 8 × 7 = 56
3 3! 5! 6
The only way to get an equilateral triangle is get a triangle formed by three face diagonals of the cube:
𝑇𝑜𝑝 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑒: 𝐴𝐶𝐸, 𝐴𝐶𝐺, 𝐵𝐷𝐹, 𝐵𝐷𝐻
𝐵𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑚 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑒: 𝐹𝐻𝐷, 𝐹𝐻𝐵, 𝐺𝐸𝐴, 𝐺𝐸𝐶
𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 8 1
Example 1.80
Three distinct vertices of a cube are chosen at random. What is the probability that the plane determined by
these three vertices contains points inside the cube? (AMC 10A 2009/24)
8 8×7×6
( )= =8×7
3 3!
The number of ways of selecting a face of the cube
is:
4
( ) × ⏟ 6 =4×6
⏟3 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠
𝐶ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 3 𝑜𝑓 4
𝑉𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑎 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒
Hence, the probability is:
If the plane does 𝑛𝑜𝑡 contain points inside the cube, 4×6 3
then it entirely includes a face of the cube. =
8×7 7
The total number of ways of selecting three vertices The required probability is then the complement:
from eight is: 3 4
1− =
7 7
Example 1.81
A bug starts at a vertex of an equilateral triangle. On each move, it randomly selects one of the two vertices
where it is not currently located, and crawls along a side of the triangle to that vertex. Given that the probability
𝑚
that the bug moves to its starting vertex on its tenth move is 𝑛 , where 𝑚 and 𝑛 are relatively prime positive
integers, find 𝑚 + 𝑛. (AIME II 2003/13)
P a g e 38 | 46
Let:
𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑝𝑠 = 𝐶𝐶𝑊 Case II and III
𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝 = 𝐶𝐶 𝐶𝐶𝑊 − 𝐶𝐶 = 3 ⇒ 𝐶𝐶𝑊 = 6.5, 𝐶𝐶 = 3.5
Since the total number of steps is ten, we must 𝐶𝐶𝑊 − 𝐶𝐶 = −3 ⇒ 𝐶𝐶𝑊 = 3.5, 𝐶𝐶 = 6.5
have:
𝐶𝐶𝑊 + 𝐶𝐶 = 10
⏟ Since half steps are not allowed, the above cases are
𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐼 not valid.
Recognize that going counterclockwise is the exact Case IV and V

opposite of going clockwise. Hence, the net effect of 𝐶𝐶𝑊 − 𝐶𝐶 = 6 ⇒ 𝐶𝐶𝑊 = 8, 𝐶𝐶 = 2
⏟
the steps taken is given by: 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐼𝐼𝐼
𝐶𝐶𝑊 − 𝐶𝐶 𝐶
⏟𝐶𝑊 − 𝐶𝐶 = −6 ⇒ 𝐶𝐶𝑊 = 2, 𝐶𝐶 = 8
𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐼𝐼𝐼
If the above quantity is a multiple of three, then the
bug returns to its starting position: 10 10 10 10!
( ) + ( ) = 2( ) = 2 = 10 × 9 = 90
(𝐶𝐶𝑊 − 𝐶𝐶 ) ∈ {… , −9, −6, −3,0,3,6,9, … } ⇔ 𝑥 2 8 2 2! 8!
≡ 0(𝑚𝑜𝑑 3)
The total number of valid paths is:
Case I 252 + 90 = 342
𝐶
⏟𝐶𝑊 − 𝐶𝐶 = 0 ⇒ 𝐶𝐶𝑊 = 𝐶𝐶 = 5
𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐼𝐼 The total number of paths, by the multiplication
One example of this is below: principle is:
1,1,1,1,1
⏟ ,⏟
−1, −1, −1, −1, −1 = 5 − 5 = 0 210 = 1024
5 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝𝑠 5 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝𝑠
𝐶𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
Hence, the probability that we want is:
342 171 𝑚
The number of ways in which this can be done is = =
10! 10 × 9 × 𝟖 × 7 × 6 1024 512 𝑛
10 𝑚 + 𝑛 = 171 + 512 = 683
( )= = = 252
5 5! 5! 𝟐×3×𝟒×5
C. 3D Shapes
Example 1.82
Two of the vertices of a regular octahedron are to be chosen at random. What is the probability that they will be
the endpoints of an edge of the octahedron? Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2011
State Countdown)
(12)/(6C2)
D. Voting
When election results are close, the voting process becomes an object of interest. The vote counting process
takes some time, and is closely followed. The question of when a lead taken by a candidate will remain till the
end is an important. A simplified model follows.
Challenge 1.83: Voting2
Andrea and Becky are the only contestants in the election for President of a club. Of the five officers eligible to
vote, three vote for Andrea, and two vote for Becky. The votes are counted. What is the probability that Andrea
2 Refer to Bertrand’s Ballot Theorem for a generalization of this example
P a g e 39 | 46
will always be ahead of Becky?
Total Outcomes
Permutations
We want to find the number of ways of arranging three identical A’s and two identical B’s, which is given (using
objects with repetition) by
5!
= 10
3! 2!
Combinations
We want to find the number of ways of choosing the location of three A’s, which is given by:
5 5!
( )= = 10
3 3! 2!
Successful Outcomes
First Vote
If the first vote goes to B, then B will be ahead of A, and the condition is violated. Hence, the first vote must go to
A, giving us:
B A
Votes 0 1
Vote Sequence: A
Second Vote
If the second vote goes to B, then B will be tied with A, and the condition is violated. Hence, the first vote must
go to B, giving us:
B A
Votes 0 2
Vote Sequence: AA
Third Vote
The third vote can go to either A or B, giving us two cases.
Case I Case II
B A B A
Votes 1 2 Votes 0 3
Vote Sequence: AAB Vote Sequence: AAA
Fourth Vote
In case I, the vote must go to A. In case II, the vote must go to B.
Case I Case II
B A B A
Votes 1 3 Votes 1 3
Vote Sequence: AABA Vote Sequence: AAAB
Fifth Vote
In case I, the vote must go to B. In case II, the vote must go to B.
Case I Case II
B A B A
Votes 1 3 Votes 1 3
Vote Sequence: AABAB Vote Sequence: AAABB
P a g e 40 | 46
Hence, we have exactly two sequences in counting where Andrea is always ahead of Becky.
Probability
Probability is given by
= =
1.7 Bayes Theorem

A. Basics
Example 1.84
Two counterfeit coins of equal weight are mixed with 8 identical genuine coins. The weight of each of the
counterfeit coins is different from the weight of each of the genuine coins. A pair of coins is selected at random
without replacement from the 10 coins. A second pair is selected at random without replacement from the
remaining 8 coins. The combined weight of the first pair is equal to the combined weight of the second pair.
What is the probability that all 4 selected coins are genuine? (AMC 10A 2011/21)
8 8!
( )
𝑃(𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑖𝑛𝑒) = 4 = 4! 4! = 8! × 4! 6! = 1 × 5 × 6 = 1
10 10! 4! 4! 10! 1 9 × 10 3
( )
4 4! 6!
2 8 1 7
( )( ) ( )( ) 2 × 8 7 4
𝑃(𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑖𝑛𝑒, 𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑒𝑖𝑡) = 1 1 × 1 1 = × =
10 8 45 28 45
( ) ( )
2 2
Required Probability is:

1 1
𝑃(𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑖𝑛𝑒) 3 1 45 15
= = = 3 = × =
𝑃(𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑖𝑛𝑒) + 𝑃(𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑖𝑛𝑒, 𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑒𝑖𝑡) 1 4 19 3 19 19
+
3 45 45
Example 1.85
(AIME 2024/II/4)
1.8 Birthday Problem

A. Distinct Birthdays
The birthday problem does not require advanced concepts, but the problem is challenging. Concepts must be
used correctly and the calculations are a little complicated.
Example 1.86
P a g e 41 | 46
I have 𝑛 people at a party. Assuming a 365 − 𝑑𝑎𝑦 year, determine the probability that no two of them have a
common birthday if:
A. 𝑛 = 1
B. 𝑛 = 2
C. 𝑛 = 3
Part A
If there is only one person, then his birthday cannot be common with anyone else. Hence:
𝑃(𝑛 = 1) = 1
Part B
Imagine that two people come to the party one after the other. The first person can have any birthday, with no
restriction.
The second person will have a birthday that does not match the first person’s birthday with probability
364
𝑃(𝑛 = 2) =
365
Part C
Imagine that three people come to the party one after the other.
➢ The first person can have any birthday, with no restriction.
➢ The second person can not have the first person’s birthday
364 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠
➢ The third person can not have the first person’s or the second person’s birthday:
363 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠
The total number of choices for a birthday is 365.
The final answer is:

364 363
𝑃(𝑛 = 3) = ∙
365 365
Example 1.87: Generalization

I have 𝑛 people at a party. Assuming a 365 − 𝑑𝑎𝑦 year, determine the probability that no two or more of them
have a common birthday.
Method I
(365 − 1) (365 − 2) (365 − 1)(365 − 2)
𝑃(𝑛 = 3) = ∙ =
365 365 3652
(365 − 1) (365 − 2) (365 − (𝑛 − 1)) (365 − 1)(365 − 2) … (365 − (𝑛 − 1))

𝑃(𝑛 = 𝑘) = ∙ … =
365 365 365 365𝑛−1
Method II
Imagine there are 365 sofas, one for each day of the year. Each person occupies the chair with his birth date.
The number of total choices

365 ∙ 365 ∙ … ∙ 365 = 365𝑛
=⏟
𝒏 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒔
(If two people have the same birthdate, they will sit on the same sofa).
P a g e 42 | 46
The number of successful choices requires arranging 𝑛 people in 365 chairs which is
𝑃𝑛365 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑃 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
The probability is
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑃𝑛365
=
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 365𝑛
Verify that the answer from Method I and Method II is the same:
365!
𝑃𝑛365 (365 − 𝑛)! 365(365 − 1)(365 − 2) … (365 − (𝑛 − 1))
= =
365𝑛 365𝑛 365𝑛
(365 − 1)(365 − 2) … (365 − (𝑛 − 1))

=
365𝑛−1
1.88: No Repeated Birthdays

The probability that no two or more people out of 𝑛 people have a common birthday is
𝑃𝑛365
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑛, 𝑛) =
365𝑛
B. Repeated Birthdays
Example 1.89
I have 𝑛 people at a party. Assuming a 365 − 𝑑𝑎𝑦 year, determine the probability that at least two of them have
a common birthday.
We calculate the complementary probability. The probability of at least two having a common birthday
𝑃𝑛365
1 − 𝑃(𝑁𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑛 𝐵𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑑𝑎𝑦) = 1 −
365𝑛
Example 1.90
What is the people required to guarantee that two of them have a common birthday?
There are 365 possibilities for distinct birthdays.

By PHP,
366 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑔𝑎𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑒 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑑𝑎𝑦
1.91: No Repeated Birthdays

The probability that at least two people out of 𝑛 people have a common birthday is
𝑃𝑛365
1−
365𝑛
Using a calculator:
365
𝑃23
1− ≈ 0.507
36523
365
𝑃22
1− ≈ 0.475
36522
Example 1.92
P a g e 43 | 46
I have people at a party. Assuming a 365 − 𝑑𝑎𝑦 year, determine the probability that the 𝑛𝑡ℎ person to visit the
party is the first person to have a birthday that matches with anyone else at the party.
Note: No one leaves the party once he joins it.
We want the 𝑛𝑡ℎ person to be the first person with a matching birthday.
This means that the prior 𝑛 − 1 people have no matching birthdays. Using the formula derived above:
365
𝑃𝑛−1
𝑃(𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑛, 𝑛 − 1) =
365𝑛−1
If there are 𝑛 − 1 people with 𝑛 − 1 distinct birthdays, the probability that the 𝑛𝑡ℎ person has a birthday
matching any of those 𝑛 − 1 days is simply:
𝑛−1
365
The final answer is:
365 365
𝑃𝑛−1 𝑛 − 1 𝑃𝑛−1
∙ = (𝑛 − 1)
365𝑛−1 365 365𝑛
C. Connecting the Dots
Example 1.93
365 365
𝑃𝑛365 𝑃𝑛−1 𝑃𝑛−1
(1 − ) − (1 − ) = (𝑛 − 1)
365𝑛 365𝑛−1 365𝑛
Using the above logic, explain without an algebraic derivation why the above is true for positive integer 𝑛.
Method I
𝑃365
𝑛
(1 − 365 𝑛 ) is the probability that out of 𝑛 people there is at least one common birthday.
𝑃365
(1 − 365𝑛−1
𝑛−1 ) is the probability that of 𝑛 − 1 people there is at least one common birthday.
The difference between the two is exactly the probability that the 𝑛𝑡ℎ person walking into the room results in a
common birthday.
And that is exactly the interpretation of the RHS.

365
𝑃𝑛−1
365𝑛
(𝑛 − 1) is the probability that the 𝑛𝑡ℎ person walking into the room results in a common birthday.
Method II
Let 𝑋 be the random variable which gives the number of the first person to walk in to the party and have a
matching birthday:
𝑃𝑛365
(1 − ) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑛)
365𝑛
365
𝑃𝑛−1
(1 − ) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑛 − 1)
365𝑛−1
365
𝑃𝑛−1
(𝑛 − 1) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑛)
365𝑛
By definition:
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑛) − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑛 − 1) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑛)
P a g e 44 | 46
Example 1.94
365 365
𝑃𝑛365 𝑃𝑛−1 𝑃𝑛−1
(1 − ) − (1 − ) = (𝑛 − 1)
365𝑛 365𝑛−1 365𝑛
Begin with the LHS. Cancel the 1′𝑠, and rearrange:

365
𝑃𝑛−1 𝑃𝑛365
−
365𝑛−1 365𝑛
Expand the permutation using the definition:

365! 365!
(366 − 𝑛)! (365 − 𝑛)!
−
365𝑛−1 365𝑛
Remove the nested fractions:

365! 365!
= −
(366 − 𝑛)! 365𝑛−1 (365 − 𝑛)! 365𝑛
Make denominators common:

365! (365) 365! (366 − 𝑛)
= −
(366 − 𝑛)! 365𝑛 (366 − 𝑛)! 365𝑛
365!
Factor (366−𝑛)!365𝑛 from both the terms:
365!
[365 − (366 − 𝑛)]
(366 − 𝑛)! 365𝑛
365!
= [𝑛 − 1]
(366 − 𝑛)! 365𝑛
Using the definition of permutations:

365
𝑃𝑛−1
= (𝑛 − 1) = 𝑅𝐻𝑆
365𝑛
D. Further Questions
Example 1.95
A room has 20 people. What is the probability that there exactly 2 triples, and 4 pairs of matching birthdays.
Notes:
1. A triple is three people that have the same birthday.
2. A pair is two people that have the same birthday.
3. No triple or pair has a common birthday. For example, if pair 1 has their birthday on Jan 1, no other
person, pair, or triple has their birthday on Jan 1.
We will use
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Total Outcomes
The number of ways in which 20 people can have birthdays is:
P a g e 45 | 46
36520
Successful Outcomes
Dates with no repeated birthdays:
365! 365!
= 365 ∙ 364 ∙ … ∙ 346 = =
(365 − 20)! (345)!
Pick the dates

2 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠 = 2 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠
4 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑠 = 4 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠
𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 20 − 2(3) − 2(4) = 20 − 6 − 8 = 6 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 = 6 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠
Total number of dates in a year

365!
=
2! 4! 6! 353!
1.9 Further Topics

96 Examples
P a g e 46 | 46

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Probability

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1. PROBABILITY WITH COUNTING

{𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻𝐻} ⇒ 3 𝑊𝑎𝑦𝑠

𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑦 5 2 1

Integers 2 2,3,4,5,6,7 2 3 2,4 5

All three rolls are the same:

Two rolls are the same:

All rolls are distinct:

The prime numbers less than 100 are:

To get an even sum, we must have:

We are picking two numbers out of 25, which gives me:

And we cannot pick either of the numbers to be even, giving us:

For the first three digits, the options are:

There are 52 abbreviations, giving

Alternate Method: Multiplying Probabilities

Probability of both being Data Science:

The number of ways of choosing the correct seats are:

12/(6^4) = 2/6^3 = 1/108

Number the balls to distinguish them, so that we get

Arrange the Red Balls

The red balls can be arranged in

Arrange the White and Blue Balls

Hence, the number of ways to arrange the balls is:

Let the integer be

If we apply the test of divisibility by 11:

If the number is to be divisible by 11, the values that S can take:

Therefore, the total number of successful ways is:

And the total number of ways to make a seven-digit number:

And hence, the probability is:

By the multiplication principle, there are:

And only one way to get

And hence the probability is:

By the multiplication principle, there are:

And the ways to get all heads or all tails is:

And hence the probability is:

The ways of getting a sum of 15 are:

We need to calculate the number of paths that go from 0 to 10.

The current score is: 1 1 4

Arrange all the Balls

We can do this with the multiplication principle:

𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 13 × 39 × 38 + 39 × 13 × 38 + 39 × 38 × 13 3(13 × 39 × 38)

The number of equiprobable outcomes when tossing a coin four times:

Express your answer as a common fraction. (MathCounts 2001 National Countdown)

Alternate Method: Complementary Counting

C. Drawing without Replacement

And the probability is

The only way to get 35 cents is

The number of ways to select one quarter and two nickels is

The number of ways of selecting three coins out of nine is

And hence the probability is

You put three CD’s correctly in three cases, as below:

B. They do not sit next to each other.

1.4 Combinations: Further Examples

Case I: Abby and Bridget are in the same column

1𝑠𝑡 𝐶𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 2𝑛𝑑 𝐶𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 3𝑟𝑑 𝐶𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛

Case II: Abby and Bridget are in the same row

1𝑠𝑡 𝑅𝑜𝑤 2𝑛𝑑 𝑅𝑜𝑤

Count the number of ways there is a draw. Split into cases: