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    BAYES

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    M S Shanmukhaa
    The document discusses Bayes' theorem, which is used to determine conditional probability. It provides an explanation of the terms in Bayes' formula and an example problem calculating the probability of spam in an email using Bayes' theorem.

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    BAYES

    Uploaded by

    M S Shanmukhaa
    9 views11 pages
    The document discusses Bayes' theorem, which is used to determine conditional probability. It provides an explanation of the terms in Bayes' formula and an example problem calculating the probability of spam in an email using Bayes' theorem.

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    BAYES (2)

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    The document discusses Bayes' theorem, which is used to determine conditional probability. It provides an explanation of the terms in Bayes' formula and an example problem calculating the probability of spam in an email using Bayes' theorem.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    9 views11 pages

    BAYES

    Uploaded by

    M S Shanmukhaa
    The document discusses Bayes' theorem, which is used to determine conditional probability. It provides an explanation of the terms in Bayes' formula and an example problem calculating the probability of spam in an email using Bayes' theorem.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    You are on page 1of 11

    BAYES

    THEOREM

    DEVADHARSHINI B
    01
    What is Bayes’ Theorem?
    Bayes theorem (also known as the Bayes Rule or Bayes Law) is used to determine the
    conditional probability of event A when event B has already occurred.The general
    statement of Bayes’ theorem is “The conditional probability of an event A, given the
    occurrence of another event B, is equal to the product of the event of B, given A and
    the probability of A divided by the probability of event B.” i.e.

    P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A) / P(B)

    where.,
    P(A) and P(B) are the probabilities of events A and B
    P(A|B) is the probability of event A when event B happens
    P(B|A) is the probability of event B when A happens
    02
    Terms in formula

    03
    Posterior probability - updated probability
    after the evidence is considered
    Prior probability - the probability before the
    evidence is considered
    Likelihood - probability of the evidence, given
    the belief is true
    Marginal probability - probability of the
    evidence, under any circumstance
    SUM
    The percentage of spam in the

    04
    whole e-mail is 30%. The
    percentage of the word 'offer' that
    occurs in spam e-mails is 80%. The
    percentage of the word 'offer' that
    occurs in the desired e-mails is
    10%. Find the probability of spam
    where the e-mail contains the
    word 'offer' using Bayes theorem.

    reallygreatsite.com
    05
    reallygreatsite.com
    06
    reallygreatsite.com
    07
    reallygreatsite.com
    Amy has two bags. Bag I has 7 red and 4 blue balls and bag II has 5 red and 9 blue balls. Amy
    draws a ball at random and it turns out to be red. Determine the probability that the ball was
    from the bag I.

    Assume A to be the event of drawing a red ball. We know that the probability of choosing a
    bag for drawing a ball is 1/2, that is,
    P(X) = P(Y) = 1/2
    Let X and Y be the events that the ball is from the bag I and bag II, respectively. Since
    there are 7 red balls out of a total of 11 balls in the bag I, therefore, P(drawing a red ball
    from the bag I) = P(A|X) = 7/11
    Similarly, P(drawing a red ball from bag II) = P(A|Y) = 5/14

    08
    To determine this we will use Bayes Theorem. Using Bayes theorem, we have the following:

    The probability that


    the ball is drawn is
    from bag I is 0.64
    APPLICATIONS
    In the real world, there are plenty of applications of the Bayes’
    Theorem. Some applications are given below :
    It can also be used as a building block and starting point for more

    09
    complex methodologies, For example, The popular Bayesian
    networks.
    Used in classification problems and other probability-related
    questions.
    Bayesian inference, a particular approach to statistical inference.
    In genetics, Bayes’ theorem can be used to calculate the probability
    of an individual having a specific genotype.
    Thank You

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