Global Institute Of Management

& Technology (GIMT)

BY ARPITA BISWAS

Basics of
DEPT : CSE,

YEAR : 3rd,

Topic Probability
: SEMESTER : 6th

REG NO. : 2590100110002 OF 2020-21

Theory ROLL. NO. : 25900120014

SUBJECT : Pattern Recognition

SUB CODE : PEC-IT-602D

 CONTENT :

INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………………………………………..03
TERMINOLOGY………………………………………………………………………………………………………….03
THEORY OF PROBABILITY………………………………………………………………………………………..04
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY…………………………………………………………………………………….05
BAYES’ THREM………………………………………………………………………………………………………….06
EXAMPLES………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..07
BAYES’ THEOREM APPLICATIONS……………………………………………………………………………..07
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY & BAYES’………………………………..08
REFFERENCE…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….08
THANK YOU……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..09
INTRODUCTION :
A key concept in the field of pattern recognition is that of uncertainty. It arises both through noise on measurements, as well as through the
finite size of data sets. Probability theory provides a consistent framework for the quantification and manipulation of uncertainty and forms
one of the central foundations for pattern recognition. When combined with decision theory, it allows us to make optimal predictions given all
the information available to us, even though that information may be incomplete or ambiguous.

TERMINOLOGY :
These are some fundamentals terms/concepts related to Probability Theory :
 Random Experiment : A random experiment is a physical situation whose outcome cannot be predicted until it is observed.
 Outcomes : The result of a random experiment.
 Sample Space : A sample space, is a set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
 Random Variables : A random variable, is a variable whose possible values are numerical outcomes of a random variable.
 Discrete Random Variable is one which may take on only a countable number of distinct values such as 0,1,2,3,4,…......... Discrete random variables are usually (but not necessarily)
counts.
 Continuous Random Variable is one which takes an infinity number of possible values. Continuous random variables are usually measurements .
 Event : A subset of the sample space.
 Probability : Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many events cannot be predicted with total certainty. We can predict only the chance of an event to occur
i.e., how likely they are going to happen.
 Biased : Means Unfair
 Unbiased : Means Fair
 Equally Likely : It means that each outcome of an experiment occurs with equal probability.
 Trial : The numerous attempts in the process of an experiment are called trials. In other words, any particular performance of a random experiment is called a trial. For example,
tossing a coin is a trial .
 Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events such that the happening of one event prevents the happening of another event are referred to as mutually exclusive events. In other words,
two events are said to be mutually exclusive events, if they cannot occur at the same time. For example, tossing a coin can result in either heads or tails. Both cannot be seen at the
same time.
 THEORY OF PROBABILITY :
Probability : The measurement of the possibility of an event is called probability. Since many events cannot be predicted with absolute
certainty, probability helps to predict the likelihood of an event to occur. It is the ratio of the number of favorable events to the total number
of events in an experiment.
Probability Theory : Probability theory makes the use of random variables and probability distributions to assess uncertain situations
mathematically. In probability theory, the concept of probability is used to assign a numerical description to the likelihood of occurrence of an
event. Probability can be defined as the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes of an event .

Probability(Event) = Number of successful outcomes/ Number of possible outcomes

Numerically the probability value always lies between 0 and 1. means , 0≤P(E)≤1
It is expressed in percentage, decimal, or fraction.
The following theorems of probability are helpful to understand the applications of probability and also perform the numerous
calculations involving probability.
Theorem 1: The sum of the probability of happening of an event and not happening of an event is equal to 1. P(A)+P(¯A)=1
Theorem 2: The probability of an impossible event or the probability of an event not happening is always equal to 0. P(ϕ)=0
Theorem 3: The probability of a sure event is always equal to 1. P(A) = 1
Theorem 4: The probability of happening of any event always lies between 0 and 1. 0 < P(A) < 1
Theorem 5: If there are two events A and B, we can apply the formula of the union of two sets and we can derive the formula for the
probability of happening of event A or event B as follows. P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
Also, for two mutually exclusive events A and B, we have P( A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY :
Conditional probability is known as the possibility of an event or outcome happening, based on the existence of a previous event or
outcome. It is calculated by multiplying the probability of the preceding event by the renewed probability of the succeeding, or conditional,
event .
• Conditional probability refers to the chances that some outcome occurs given that another event has also occurred.
• It is often stated as the probability of B given A and is written as P(B|A), where the probability of B depends on that of A happening.
• Conditional probability can be contrasted with unconditional probability.
• Probabilities are classified as either conditional, marginal, or joint.
• Bayes' theorem is a mathematical formula used in calculating conditional probability .
Formulas : P(B|A) = P(A and B) / P(A)
Or:
P(B|A) = P(A∩B) / P(A) Where , P = Probability , A = Event A , B = Event B
Example : The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since there are 5 school days in a week, the probability
that it is Friday is 0.2. What is the probability that a student is absent given that today is Friday?
Solution:
The formula of Conditional probability Formula is: Step by step, here’s how to derive the conditional probability equation from the
multiplication rule:
P (B|A) = P(A ∩ B) ⁄ P(A) Step 1: Write out the multiplication rule:
P(Absent | Friday)= P (Absent and Friday)⁄P(Friday) P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B|A)
Step 2: Divide both sides of the equation by P(A):
= 0.03/0.2 P(A and B) / P(A) = P(A)*P(B|A) / / P(A)
Step 3: Cancel P(A) on the right side of the equation:
= 0.15
P(A and B) / P(A) = P(B|A)
= 15 % Step 4: Rewrite the equation:
P(B|A) = P(A and B) / P(A)
BAYES’THEOREM:
Bayes theorem, in simple words, determines the conditional probability of an event A given that event B has already occurred. Bayes theorem
is also known as the Bayes Rule or Bayes Law. It is a method to determine the probability of an event based on the occurrences of prior events.
It is used to calculate conditional probability. Bayes theorem calculates the probability based on the hypothesis. Now, let us state the theorem
and its proof. Bayes theorem states that the conditional probability of an event A, given the occurrence of another event B, is equal to the
product of the likelihood of B, given A and the probability of A.
It is given as: P(A|B)=P(B|A)P(A)P(B)
Here, P(A) = how likely A happens(Prior knowledge)- The probability of a hypothesis is true before any evidence is present.
P(B) = how likely B happens(Marginalization)- The probability of observing the evidence.
P(A/B) = how likely A happens given that B has happened(Posterior)-The probability of a hypothesis is true given the evidence.
P(B/A) = how likely B happens given that A has happened(Likelihood)- The probability of seeing the evidence if the hypothesis is true.
THE STATEMENT :
The statement of Bayes Theorem is as follows: Let E1,E2,E3,..., En be a set of events associated with a sample space S, where all
events E1,E2,E3,... ,En have non-zero probability of occurrence and they form a partition of S. Let A be any event which occurs
with E1orE2orE3...orEn, then according to Bayes Theorem,
P(Ei|A)=P(Ei)P(A|Ei)∑nk=1P(Ek)P(A|Ek),i=1,2,3,...,n
• Here Ei∩ Ej = φ, where i ≠ j. (i.e) They are mutually exhaustive events
• The union of all the events of the partition, should give the sample space.
• 0 ≤ P(Ei) ≤ 1
EXAMPLES : BAYES’THEOREM APPLICATIONS :
QUESTION : Amy has two bags. Bag I has 7 red and 2 blue balls One of the many applications of Bayes’ theorem is Bayesian inference, a
and bag II has 5 red and 9 blue balls. Amy draws a ball at random particular approach to statistical inference. Bayesian inference has found
application in various activities, including medicine, science, philosophy,
and it turns out to be red. Determine the probability that the ball engineering, sports, law, etc. For example, we can use Bayes’ theorem to
was from the bag I using the Bayes theorem. define the accuracy of medical test results by considering how likely any
Solution: Let X and Y be the events that the ball is from the bag I given person is to have a disease and the test’s overall accuracy. Bayes’
theorem relies on consolidating prior probability distributions to generate
and bag II, respectively. Assume A to be the event of drawing a red
posterior probabilities. In Bayesian statistical inference, prior probability is
ball. We know that the probability of choosing a bag for drawing a the probability of an event before new data is collected .
ball is 1/2, that is, Problems :
P(X) = P(Y) = 1/2 Solve the following problems using Bayes Theorem.
Since there are 7 red balls out of a total of 11 balls in the bag I, 1. A bag contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its colour
therefore, P(drawing a red ball from the bag I) = P(A|X) = 7/11 is noted, and again the ball is returned to the bag. Also, 2 additional balls of
the colour drawn are put in the bag. After that, the ball is drawn at random
Similarly, P(drawing a red ball from bag II) = P(A|Y) = 5/14
from the bag. What is the probability that the second ball drawn from the
We need to determine the value of P(the ball drawn is from the bag bag is red?
I given that it is a red ball), that is, P(X|A). To determine this we 2. Of the students in the college, 60% of the students reside in the hostel and
will use Bayes Theorem. Using Bayes theorem, we have the 40% of the students are day scholars. Previous year results report that 30%
following: of all students who stay in the hostel scored A Grade and 20% of day
scholars scored A grade. At the end of the year, one student is chosen at
P(X|A)=P(A|X)P(X)P(A|X)P(X)+P(A|Y)P(Y) random and found that he/she has an A grade. What is the probability that
= [((7/11)(1/2))/(7/11)(1/2)+(5/14)(1/2)] the student is a hosteler?

= 0.64
3. From the pack of 52 cards, one card is lost. From the remaining cards of a
pack, two cards are drawn and both are found to be diamond cards. What is
Answer: Hence, the probability that the ball is drawn is from bag I the probability that the lost card is a diamond?
is 0.64
Difference Between Conditional Reference :
Probability and Bayes’ Theorem :
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proba
Conditional Probability Bayes’ Theorem bility_theory
Conditional Probability is the Bayes Theorem includes two 2. https://byjus.com/maths/probability
probability of occurrence of a conditional probabilities for the /
certain event, say A, based on events, say A and B.
some other event whether B is true
or not
3. https://www.cuemath.com/data/pro
bability-theory/
The equation of conditional The equation of Bayes Theorem
probability is:
P(A|B) = P(A∩B) / P(B)
is:
P(A|B) = P(B|A)×P(A) / P(B)
4. https://byjus.com/conditional-proba
bility-formula/

It is used to compute the It is used in Bayesian inference

5. https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/p
conditional probability and the and in models where we are robability-events-conditional.html
events A and B are relatively
simple.
interested in the distribution up to
a normalizing factor P(B) 6. https://www.probabilitycourse.com/
chapter1/1_4_0_conditional_probabil
It is used for relatively simple It gives a structured formula for ity.php
problems. solving more complex problems.
7. https://www.statisticshowto.com/pr
obability-and-statistics/statistics-defi
nitions/conditional-probability-defini
tion-examples/
THANK YOU