Bayesian Inference

ROHINI COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
2.2 BAYESIAN INFERENCE
Probabilistic reasoning:
Probabilistic reasoning is a way of knowledge representation where we apply the concept

of probability to indicate the uncertainty in knowledge. In probabilistic reasoning, we combine
probability theory with logic to handle the uncertainty.
We use probability in probabilistic reasoning because it provides a way to handle the uncertainty
that is the result of someone's laziness and ignorance.
In the real world, there are lots of scenarios, where the certainty of something is not confirmed,
such as "It will rain today," "behavior of someone for some situations," "A match between two
teams or two players." These are probable sentences for which we can assume that it will happen
but not sure about it, so here we use probabilistic reasoning.
Need of probabilistic reasoning in AI:
o When there are unpredictable outcomes.

o When specifications or possibilities of predicates becomes too large to handle.
o When an unknown error occurs during an experiment.
In probabilistic reasoning, there are two ways to solve problems with uncertain knowledge:
o Bayes' rule
o Bayesian Statistics
As probabilistic reasoning uses probability and related terms, so before understanding probabilistic
reasoning, let's understand some common terms:
Probability: Probability can be defined as a chance that an uncertain event will occur. It is the
numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. The value of probability always
remains between 0 and 1 that represent ideal uncertainties.
 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, where P(A) is the probability of an event A.

 P(A) = 0, indicates total uncertainty in an event A.
CS3491-ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING

 P(A) =1, indicates total certainty in an event A.

We can find the probability of an uncertain event by using the below formula.
o P(¬A) = probability of a not happening event.

o P(¬A) + P(A) = 1.
Conditional probability:
Conditional probability is a probability of occurring an event when another event has already
happened.
Let's suppose, we want to calculate the event A when event B has already occurred, "the probability
of A under the conditions of B", it can be written as:
Where P(A⋀B) = Joint probability of a and B
P(B)= Marginal probability of B.
If the probability of A is given and we need to find the probability of B, then it will be given as:
Example:
In a class, there are 70% of the students who like English and 40% of the students who likes
English and mathematics, and then what is the percent of students those who like English also like
mathematics?
Solution:

Let, A is an event that a student likes Mathematics
B is an event that a student likes English.
Hence, 57% are the students who like English also like Mathematics.
BAYESIAN REASONING (BAYESIAN INFERENCE)
Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes' law, or Bayesian reasoning, which
determines the probability of an event with uncertain knowledge.
 In probability theory, it relates the conditional probability and marginal probabilities of

two random events.
 Bayes' theorem was named after the British mathematician Thomas Bayes. The Bayesian
inference is an application of Bayes' theorem, which is fundamental to Bayesian statistics.
 It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of P(A|B).
 Bayes' theorem allows updating the probability prediction of an event by observing new
information of the real world.
Example: If cancer corresponds to one's age then by using Bayes' theorem, we can determine the
probability of cancer more accurately with the help of age.
Bayes' theorem can be derived using product rule and conditional probability of event A with
known event B:
As from product rule we can write:
1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(A|B) P(B) or

Similarly, the probability of event B with known event A:

1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(B|A) P(A)

Equating right hand side of both the equations, we will get:
The above equation (a) is called as Bayes' rule or Bayes' theorem. This equation is basic of most
modern AI systems for probabilistic inference.
It shows the simple relationship between joint and conditional probabilities. Here,
P(A|B) is known as posterior, which we need to calculate, and it will be read as Probability of
hypothesis A when we have occurred an evidence B.
P(B|A) is called the likelihood, in which we consider that hypothesis is true, then we calculate the
probability of evidence.
P(A) is called the prior probability, probability of hypothesis before considering the evidence
P(B) is called marginal probability, pure probability of an evidence.
In the equation (a), in general, we can write P (B) = P(A)*P(B|Ai), hence the Bayes' rule can be
written as:
Where A1, A2, A3,........, An is a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Applying Bayes' rule:
Bayes' rule allows us to compute the single term P(B|A) in terms of P(A|B), P(B), and P(A). This
is very useful in cases where we have a good probability of these three terms and want to determine
the fourth one. Suppose we want to perceive the effect of some unknown cause, and want to
compute that cause, then the Bayes' rule becomes:

Example-1:
Question: what is the probability that a patient has diseases meningitis with a stiff neck?
Given Data:
A doctor is aware that disease meningitis causes a patient to have a stiff neck, and it occurs 80%
of the time. He is also aware of some more facts, which are given as follows:
o The Known probability that a patient has meningitis disease is 1/30,000.

o The Known probability that a patient has a stiff neck is 2%.
Let a be the proposition that patient has stiff neck and b be the proposition that patient has
meningitis. , so we can calculate the following as:
P(a|b) = 0.8
P(b) = 1/30000
P(a)= .02
Hence, we can assume that 1 patient out of 750 patients has meningitis disease with a stiff neck.
Application of Bayes' theorem in Artificial intelligence:
Following are some applications of Bayes' theorem:
o It is used to calculate the next step of the robot when the already executed step is given.
o Bayes' theorem is helpful in weather forecasting.
o It can solve the Monty Hall problem.

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ROHINI COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

2.2 BAYESIAN INFERENCE

Probabilistic reasoning is a way of knowledge representation where we apply the concept

Need of probabilistic reasoning in AI:

o When there are unpredictable outcomes.

 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, where P(A) is the probability of an event A.

CS3491-ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING

 P(A) =1, indicates total certainty in an event A.

o P(¬A) = probability of a not happening event.

Where P(A⋀B) = Joint probability of a and B

P(B)= Marginal probability of B.

CS3491-ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING

Let, A is an event that a student likes Mathematics

B is an event that a student likes English.

BAYESIAN REASONING (BAYESIAN INFERENCE)

 In probability theory, it relates the conditional probability and marginal probabilities of

 It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of P(A|B).

As from product rule we can write:

1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(A|B) P(B) or

CS3491-ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING

1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(B|A) P(A)

P(B) is called marginal probability, pure probability of an evidence.

Applying Bayes' rule:

CS3491-ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING

o The Known probability that a patient has meningitis disease is 1/30,000.

Application of Bayes' theorem in Artificial intelligence:

Following are some applications of Bayes' theorem:

CS3491-ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING

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