OM Chapter 4 Aggregate Planning
OM Chapter 4 Aggregate Planning
Objectives:
On successful completion of this chapter, you should be able to:
Aggregate plan: statement of a company’s production rates, workforce levels, and inventory
holding based estimates of customer requirements and capacity limitations.
Production plan: a manufacturing firm’s aggregate plan, which generally focuses on production
rate and inventory holdings.
It determines the quantity and timing of production for the immediate future. Aggregate planning
is an intermediate term planning decision. It is the process of planning the quantity and timing of
output over the intermediate time horizon (3 months to one year). Within this range, the physical
facilities are assumed to be fixed for the planning period. Therefore, fluctuations in demand must
be met by varying labor and inventory schedule. Aggregate planning seeks the best combination
to minimize costs.
The many functional areas in an organization that give input to the aggregate plan typically have
conflicting objective for the use of the organization’s resources. Six objectives usually are
considered during development of a production or staffing plan, and conflicts among them may
have to resolve:
The weight given to each one in the plan involves cost tradeoffs and consideration of non
quantifiable factors. Balancing these various objectives to arrive at an acceptable aggregate plan
involves consideration of various alternatives. The two basic types of alternatives are reactive
and aggressive.
For effective and efficient aggregate planning process the following points are required:
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4.3. Aggregate Planning Strategies
The variables of the production system are labor, materials and capital. More labor effort is
required to generate higher volume of output. Hence, the employment and use of overtime (OT)
are the two relevant variables. Materials help to regulate output. The alternatives available to the
company are inventories, back ordering or subcontracting of items.
These controllable variables constitute pure strategies by which fluctuations in demand and
uncertainties in production activities can be accommodated by using the following steps:
Vary the size of the workforce: Output is controlled by hiring or laying off workers in
proportion to changes in demand.
Vary the hours worked: Maintain the stable workforce, but permit idle time when
there is a slack and permit overtime (OT) when demand is peak.
Vary inventory levels: Demand fluctuations can be met by large amount of inventory.
Subcontract: Upward shift in demand from low level. Constant production rates can
be met by using subcontractors to provide extra capacity.
Change prices or other factors to influence demand
Backlogs , backorder and stocks:
Chase strategy: a strategy that matches demand during the planning horizon by varying either
the workforce level or the output rate. When a chase strategy uses the first method, varying the
workforce level to match demand, it relies on just one reactive alternative-workforce variation.
This chase strategy has the advantage of no inventory investment, overtime, or under-time.
However it has some drawback, including the expense of continually adjusting workforce levels,
The second chase strategy, varying the output rate to match demand, opens up additional reactive
alternatives beyond changing the workforce level. Sometimes called the utilization strategy, the
extent and timing of the workforce’s utilization is changed through overtime, under- time and
vacation are taken. Subcontracting, including temporary help during the peak season, is another
way of matching demand.
Level strategy: a strategy that maintains a constant workforce level or constant output rate
during the planning horizon. When a level strategy used the first method, marinating a constant
workforce level, it might consist of not hiring or laying off workers (except at the beginning of
the planning horizon), building up anticipation inventories to absorb seasonal demand
fluctuations, using under-time in slack periods and overtime up to contracted limits for peak
periods.
When level strategy uses the second method, maintaining a constant output rate, it allows hiring
and layoffs in addition to other alternatives of first level strategy. The key to identifying a level
strategy is whether the workforce or output rate is constant.
Mixed strategy: Strategies that consider and implements a full range of receive alternatives and
goes beyond a “Pure” chase or level strategy. Whether management chooses a pure strategy or
some mix the strategy should reflect the organizations environment and planning objectives.
Determining demand requirements: the first step in planning process is to determine the
demand requirements for each period of planning horizon. The planner can derive future
requirements for finished goods from backlogs (for make to order operations) or from forecasts
for product families made to stock (for make to stock operations).
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Identifying alternatives, constraints, and costs: the second step is to identify the alternatives,
constraints, and costs for the plan.
Constraints represent the physical limitations or managerial policies associated with the
aggregate plan. Typically, many plans can satisfy specific set of constraints. The planner usually
considers several types of costs when preparing aggregate plans:
Regular time costs (wages health insurance, dental care, social security, and
retirement funds pay for vacation, holidays, and certain other types of absence).
Overtime costs:
Hiring and layoff costs
Inventory holding costs
Backorder and stock out costs
Preparing an acceptable plan: developing an acceptable plan is an iterative process i.e. plan
may need to go through several revisions and adjustments. A prospective, or tentative, plan is
developed to start. The plan must then be checked against constraints and evaluated in terms of
strategic objectives.
Implementing and updating the plan: the final step is implementing and updating the final
plan. Implementation requires the comment of manager in all functional areas. The planning
committee may recommend changes in the plan during implementation or updating to balance
conflicting objectives better. Acceptance of the plan does not necessarily mean that everyone is
in total agreement, but it does imply that everyone will work to achieve it.
1. What are the major costs which the planner should consider during
aggregate planning?
We start with a table called tableau of the workforce level, capacity limits demand forecast
quantities beginning inventory level, and costs of each planning horizon.
Each raw in the tableau represents an alternative for supplying output. The columns represent the
periods that the plan must cover, plus the unused and total capabilities available. The box in the
upper right hand side corner of each cell shows the cost of producing a unit in one period and in
some cases, carrying the unit in inventory for sale in future period.
Step1. Select a workforce adjustment plan (Rt values) using a chase strategy, level strategy, or a
mixed strategy. Identify the capacity constraints on overtime (Ot values) and on subcontracting
(St values). Usually a period’s overtime capacity is a percent of its regular-time capacity. Also
identify the no-hand anticipation inventory (Io values) currently available before the start of the
period.
Step2. Input the cost parameters (h, r, c, s, u and b) for the different reactive alternatives
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Step3. Forecast the demand for each future period, and insert the forecasts as the values in the
tableau’s last row. The last period’s requirement should be increased to account for any desired
inventory at the end of the planning horizon. The unused capacity cell in the last raw equals the
total demand requirements in the last raw, minus the total capacity in tableau’s last column.
Step4. Solve the transportation problem just formulated with a computer routine to find the
optimal solution (based on the workforce adjustment plan). The sum of all entries in a row equals
the total capacity for that raw, and the sum of all entries in a column must equal the requirement
in the last column.
Step5. Return to step 1 and try other staffing plans until you find the solution that best balances
cost and qualitative consideration.
Linear programming models for production planning seek the optimal production plan for a
linear objective function and a set of linear constraints; that is, there can be no cross products or
powers of decision variables or other types of nonlinear terms in the problem formulation. Liner
programming models can be used to determine optimal inventory level, backorders,
subcontractor quantities, production quantities overtime production, hires and layoffs. The main
drawbacks are that all relationships between variables must be linear and that the optimal values
of the decision variables may be fractional.
Changing inventory levels Changes in human resources Inventory holding cost may increase. Applies mainly to
are gradual or none; no Shortages may result in lost sales. production, not
abrupt production changes. service, operations.
Varying workforce size by Avoids the costs of other Hiring, layoff, and training costs may Used where size of labor
hiring or layoffs alternatives. be significant. pool is large.
Varying production rates Matches seasonal fluctuations Overtime premiums; tired workers; Allows flexibility within
through overtime or idle without hiring/ training costs. may not meet demand. the aggregate plan.
time
Using part-time workers less costly and more flexible High turnover/ training costs; quality Good for unskilled jobs
than full-time workers. suffers; scheduling difficult. in areas with large
temporary labor pools.
Influencing demand Tries to use excess capacity. Uncertainty in demand. Hard to Creates marketing ideas.
Discounts draw new match demand to supply exactly. Overbooking used in
customers. some businesses.
Back ordering during high- May avoid overtime. Keeps Customer must be willing to wait, but Many companies back
demand periods capacity constant. goodwill is lost. o r d er .
Counter-seasonal product Fully utilizes resources; allows May require skills or equipment Risky finding products
and service mixing stable workforce. outside the firm’s areas of or services with
expertise. opposite demand
patterns.
Aggregate planning is the process of planning the quantity and timing of output over the
intermediate time horizon (3 months to one year). Within this range, the physical facilities are
assumed to be fixed for the planning period. Therefore, fluctuations in demand must be met by
varying labor and inventory schedule.
Aggregate planning has various objectives like: minimize cost/maximize profit, maximize
customer service, maintain inventory investment, minimize changes in inventory investment,
minimize changes in production rates, minimize changes in workforce level and maximize
utilization of plant and equipment.
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Chase, level and mixed strategies are the planning strategies used for effective aggregate
planning. Production capacity, availability of materials, human resource requirements and its
availability are the basis for aggregate planning.
Objectives:
What is scheduling?
Scheduling is the processes of determining the starting and completion times to jobs. It is the
determination of when labor, equipment and facilities are needed to produce a product or provide
a service. Scheduling is a time table for: performing activities, using resources, or allocating
facilities. Generally, a schedule specifies the timing and sequence of production.
Schedule must be realistic; that is they must be capable of being achieved within the capacity
limitations of the manufacturing facilities.
Scheduling should be clearly differentiated from aggregate planning. The purpose of scheduling
is to ensure that available capacity is efficiently and effectively used to achieve the
organization’s objectives. The purpose of aggregate planning is to determine the resources
(labor, equipment, space etc.) that should be acquired for scheduling.
Often several jobs might be processed at one or more work stations. Typically a variety of tasks
can be performed at each work station which make effective scheduling a must rather than an
alternative. Sequencing & loading should be considered during scheduling activity.
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Sequencing: sequencing is concerned with developing an exact order (or sequence) of job
processing. It is the determination of the order in which jobs are processed. One of the oldest
sequencing methods is the Gant chart. Gant chart is a bar chart that shows a job’s progress graphically or
compares actual against planed performance.
Loading: is the assignment of work to specific resources/ machines. It is simply the process of
assigning work to individual workers or machine. Loading can be: finite loading, infinite
loading, back ward loading and forewarned loading.
Finite loading: refers to loading activities with regard to capacity. Tasks are never loaded beyond
capacity.
Back ward loading begins with the due date for each job and loads the processing time
requirements against each work centre by proceeding back ward in time. The purpose of back
ward loading is to calculate the capacity required in each work centre for each time period.
Forewarned loading begins with the present date and loads jobs forwards in time. The
processing time is accumulated against each work centre, assuming infinite capacity. The
purpose of forewarned loading is to determine the approximate completion date of each job and
the capacity required in each time period.
Objectives of scheduling
The objectives of scheduling includes minimizing: job lateness, response time, completion time,
overtime, idle time, work in process inventory, and maximizing machine and labor utilization.
For job shop production scheduling decision can be quite complex. What makes Scheduling so
difficult in a job shop is the variety of jobs (customer orders) that are processed, each with
distinctive routing & processing requirement. In a pure job shop, there are several jobs to be
processed, each of which may have different routing among department or machines in the shop.
In designing a scheduling and control system for a high variety of activities, sequencing and
prioritizing should be emphasized.
As discussed above, sequencing is prioritizing jobs that have been assigned to limited resources.
Sequencing is simple if work centers are lightly loaded and need the same processing time. But if
work centers are heavily loaded there will be longer waiting time and idle time. In this case to
minimize the waiting and idle time, we must prioritize the tasks by using priority rules.
Priority rules are the criteria by which the sequence of jobs is determined. The process of
determine which job is started first on a particular machine or work centre is known as priority
sequencing. Some of the more common priority rules for sequencing jobs are:
First come, first serve (FCFS): orders are run in the order that they arrive in the
department i.e. the oldest first rule.
Shortest processing time (SPT): run the job with the shortest completion time first i.e.
shortest operating time first.
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Earliest due date first (due date): run the job with earliest due date first. Thus, a job that
is due tomorrow has a higher priority than the job that is due next week or next month.
Critical ratio (CR): this is calculated as the difference between the due date and the
current date divided by the work remaining. Orders with the smallest CR are run first.
In the CR rule, jobs are sequenced from lowest CR to highest CR. Those with a CR less
than one are considered behind schedule and need to be expedited. And CR greater than
one implies that the job is ahead schedule and can be de-expedite.
Last come first serve (LCFS): this rule occurs frequently by default. As orders arrive they
are placed on the top of the stack and the operator usually picks up the order on top to
run first.
Random order – whim: the supervisors or the operators usually select which ever job they
feel like running.
Queue ratio (QR): this is calculated as the slack time remaining in the schedule divided
by the planned remaining queue time. Orders with the smallest QR are run first.
Slack time remaining (STR): This is calculated as the difference between the times
remaining before the due date minus the processing time remaining. Obviously, job
with negative slacks are behind schedule; those jobs might require expediting to get
caught up. Under the minimum slack rule, jobs are sequenced based on their slack:
those with the most slack receive the lowest priority and those with the least slack
receive the highest priority i.e. Orders with the shortest STR are run first.
Slack time remaining per operation(STR/OP):
1. Least and explain the priority rules to assign the task to work centre
Job flow time: refers to time a job spends in the shop. It is the sum of the moving time
between operations, waiting time for machines or work orders, process time (including
set up), and delays resulting from machine breakdowns, component unavailability and the
like. The objective here is to minimize the average flow time.
Average flow time = (sum of total flow time) (no of job processed)
Make span time: refers to time to process a set of jobs. It is the total amount of time
required to complete a group of job. The general objective is to minimize the make span
time. (Generally, make span time =processing time of each job)
Tardiness (past due): refers to the amount by which completion time exceeds the due date
of a job. If a job is completed before its due date, tardiness is zero. The objective is to
minimize the number of tardy jobs.
Tardiness= past due, & (Average tardiness = times past due total no. of jobs)
Work in process inventory: any job in waiting line, moving from one operation to the
next, being delayed for some reason, being processed and the like are work in process.
This measure can be expressed in units, number of jobs, and birr value for the entire
system and so on.
(Average WIP inventory =job flow timesmakes pan times)
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Total inventory in the system: is the sum of the schedule receipt and on hand inventories.
(Average total inventory = jobs in the systemmakes pan time)
Utilization = total processing time total flow time
Average number of jobs in the system= (no. of jobs) (production time of the job)
There are a number of job scheduling techniques. However, we will take two most widely
practiced job scheduling techniques: scheduling ‘n’ jobs – one machine problems and scheduling
‘n’ jobs on two machines.
Let us compare some of the priority rules in a static scheduling situation involving some jobs and
one machine. The theoretical difficulty of this type of problem increases as more machines are
considered.
Example 1
Mesfin industrial engineering has engaged in assembling different model cars. Assume five
customers submitted their orders for different model of cars: the first customer order model type
A, the seconded model type B, the third model type C, the fourth for model type D and the fifth
order model type E. Further assume that all order requires the use of only one machine which
forces the company to decide on the processing sequence for the five orders. The following is the
time (in days) required to complete the job on in the machine.
Solution
Example 2: ABC factory is engaged in gentle men garment business. The order receiving unit
has received the orders from its customers for coats, gowns, shirts, trousers, and jackets
respectively. There is only one job centre that all kinds of jobs are performed. The following is
the time (in days) required to complete the job in the work centre.
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Required:
Order No of days till due (a) processing time (b) CR= (a b)
C 8 7 1.14
G 3 2 1.5
S 7 5 1.4
T 9 3 3
J 6 6 1
From the highest critical to lowest critical ratio, the job can be scheduled as: J, C, S, G, T in the
order of 1st , 2nd , 3rd , 4th , 5th respectively.
Now , you can determine make span time, total flow time, average flow time, average tardiness
(average job lateness), average WIP inventory, average total inventory, utilization & no. of jobs
in the system as follows.
No. of jobs in the system= (6x5) + (7x4) + (5x3) + (2x2) + (3x1) 23= 3.478
Exercise : Based on the above data, determine make span time, total flow time, average flow
time, average tardiness (average job lateness), average WIP inventory, average total inventory,
utilization & no. of jobs in the system using:
The next set up in complexity of job shop type is the n/2 cases, where two or more jobs must be
processed on two machines in common sequences. As in n/1 cases, there is an approach that
leads to an optimal solutions according to certain criteria. Also as in n/1 cases, we assume that it
is a statistic scheduling situation. The objective of this approach, termed Johnson’s rule or
method (after its developer), is to minimize the flow time, from the beginning of the first job
until the completion of the last. Johnson’s rule is an algorithm for sequencing any number of
jobs through two serial operations to minimize makes span time and total flow time. Johnson’s
rule consists of the following steps:
Step1. List the operation time for each job on both machines.
Step 3.if the shortest time is for the first machine, do the job first; if the shortest time is for the
second machine, do the job last.
Step5. Repeat step 2 and 3 for each remaining job until the schedule is complete.
N: B if there is a tie, i.e. if a job has the same processing time at each work centre, it makes
no differences whether we place it forward the beginning or the end of the sequence so we can
assign arbitrarily.
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Example1:
A wood carpentry has received orders from its customers for chair, table shelf, door, and board.
The owner has organized two job centers one for assembly and one for finishing. Every product
has to pass through the two work centers in the sequence. The following is the time (per hour)
required to complete the jobs in each work centre.
Required:
a. schedule the work centre using FCFS and determine make span, total flow time,
total idle time, and average flow time
b. schedule the work centre using Johnson rule and then determine make span, total
flow time, total idle time, and average flow time.
Solution
0 4 7 11 17 22 31
Ass. C=4 T=3 S=4 D=6 B=5 Free for other task
Fin. I=4 C=2 I=1 T=8 S=1 I=1 D=3 I=2 B=9
0 3 8 14 18 22 26
Second
Ass. T=3 B=5 D=6 C=4 S=4 Free other task
Fin. I=3 T=8 B=9 D=3 C=2 S=1
schedule the job as follows (I refers to idle)
0 4 7 11 17 22 31
Ass. C=4 T=3 S=4 D=6 B=5 Free for other task
Fin. I=4 C=2 I=1 T=8 S=1 I=1 D=3 I=2 B=9
M
ake span time= 4+3+4+6+5+9= 31 hrs
Exercise: the Morris machine company just received an order to refurbish five motors for
materials handling equipment that were demanded in a fire. The motors will be repaired at two
work stations in the following manner.
Work station 2= replace parts as necessary, test the motors and make adjustments
The customer’s shop will be inoperable until all the motors have been repaired the estimated time for
repairing each motor is shown in the following table.
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Motor workstation 1 work station 2
M1 12 22
M2 4 5
M3 5 3
M4 15 16
M5 10 8
Develop the schedule that minimize the make span time using Johnson’s rule.
Scheduling is also important in service organizations. For example nurses must be scheduled in
hospital, and truck must be scheduled for deliveries for furniture distributors. One important
distinction between manufacturing and services that affects scheduling is that service operations
cannot create inventories to buffer demand uncertainties. A second distinction is that in service
operations demand often is less predictable; customers may decide on the spur of the moment
that they need a hamburger, a hair cut or a plumbing repair. Thus capacity, often in the form of
employees is crucial for service providers. In this section we discuss various ways in which
schedule systems can facilitate the capacity management of service providers.
One way to manage capacity is to schedule customers for arrival times and definite periods of
service time. With this approach, capacity remains fixed and demand is leveled to provide
timely service and utilize capacity. Three methods are commonly used: appointment, reservation
and backlog.
Appointment: an appointment system assigns specific times for services to customers. The
advantages of this method are timely customer service and high utilization of servers. Doctors,
dentists, lawyers, and automobile repair shops are examples of service providers that use
appointment systems. Doctors can use the system to schedule parts of their days to visits hospital
patients and lawyers can set aside time to prepare cases. If timely service is to be provided,
however, care must be taken to tailor the length of appointment to individual customer needs
rather than merely scheduling customers at equal time interval.
Backlog: a less precise way to schedule customers is to allow backlogs to develop; that is
customers never know exactly when service will commence. They present service request to an
order taker, who adds it to the waiting line of orders already in the system. TV repair shops,
restaurants, banks, grocery stores, and barber shops are examples of the many types of business
that uses this system. Various priority rules can be used to determine which order to process
next. The usual rule is first come, first served, but if the order involves rework on a previous
order, it may get a higher priority.
Another way to manage capacity with a schedule system is to specify the on duty and off duty
periods for each employee over a certain time period as in assigning postal clerks, nurses, pilots,
attendants, or police officers to specific work days and shifts. This approach is used when
customers demand quick response and total demand can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy.
In this instant capacity is adjusted to meet the expected loads on the service system. The work
force capacity available each day must meet or exceed daily work force requirements. If it does
not, the scheduler must try to rearrange days off until the requirements are met. If no such
scheduling can be found, management might have to change the staffing plan and authorize more
employees, over time hours or large backlogs.
Managers usually use rotating schedule than fixed schedule to assign workers on their duty. In
rotating schedule rotate employees through a series of work days or hours. Thus over a period of
time, each person has the same opportunity to have weekends and holidays off and to work days,
as well as evening and nights. A rotating schedule gives each employee the next employee‘s
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schedule the following week. In contrast, a fixed schedule calls for each employee to work the
same days and hours each week.