Institute of Basic and

Applied Sciences (BAS)

MTH 211 – Probability and Statistics

Lecture 2

Dr. Ali Kandil

Office: B9-F2-17
ali.kandil@ejust.edu.eg

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P(H) = 0.5,
P(T) = 0.5

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Example. A coin is tossed twice. Find the probability that at least 1 head occurs.

Solution. The sample space for this experiment is

We assign a probability of 𝑘 to each sample point. Then, 4𝑘 = 1, or 𝑘 = 1/4. If 𝐴

represents the event of at least 1 head occurring, then

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Example. A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to
occur as an odd number. If 𝐸 is the event that a number less than 4
occurs on a single toss of the die, find 𝑃(𝐸).

Solution. The sample space is

We assign a probability of 𝑘 to each odd number and a probability of 2𝑘 to each

even number. We have 9𝑘 = 1 or 𝑘 = 1/9. Therefore,

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Example. In the previous example, let 𝐴 be the event that an even number turns
up and let 𝐵 be the event that a number divisible by 3 occurs. Find
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).

Solution. For the events 𝐴 = {2, 4, 6} and 𝐵 = {3, 6}, we have

By assigning a probability of 1/9 to each odd number and 2/9 to each even
number, we have

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Example. A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical,
10 electrical, and 8 civil engineering students. If a person is randomly
selected by the instructor to answer a question, find the probability that
the student chosen is (a) an industrial engineering major and (b) a civil
engineering or an electrical engineering major.
Solution. Denote by 𝐼, 𝑀, 𝐸, and 𝐶 the students majoring in industrial, mechanical,
electrical, and civil engineering, respectively. The total number of equally
likely students in the class is 53. 6
(a) Since 25 of the 53 students are majoring in industrial engineering, the
probability of event 𝐼 is

(b) Since 18 of the 53 students are civil or electrical engineering majors, it follows
that

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Example. John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department in a
university by the end of the semester. After being interviewed at two
companies he likes, he assesses that his probability of getting an offer
from company 𝐴 is 0.8, and his probability of getting an offer from
company 𝐵 is 0.6. If he believes that the probability that he will get
offers from both companies is 0.5, what is the probability that he will get
at least one offer from these two companies?
Solution. Using the additive rule, we have

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Example. What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of fair
dice is tossed?
Solution. Let 𝐴 be the event that 7 occurs and 𝐵 the event that 11 comes up. Now,
a total of 7 occurs for 6 of the 36 sample points, and a total of 11 occurs
for only 2 of the 36 sample points. We have
𝑃 𝐴 = 1/6 and 𝑃 𝐵 = 1/18
The events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive, since a total of 7 and 11 cannot both
occur on the same toss. Therefore,

This result could also have been obtained by counting the total number of points
for the event 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵, namely 8, and writing

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Example. If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a
person purchasing a new automobile will choose the color green, white,
red, or blue, what is the probability that a given buyer will purchase a
new automobile that comes in one of those colors?
Solution. Let 𝐺, 𝑊, 𝑅, and 𝐵 be the events that a buyer selects a green, white, red,
or blue automobile, respectively. Since these four events are mutually
exclusive, the probability is

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Example. If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,
or 8 or more cars on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19,
0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07, what is the probability that he will service at
least 5 cars on his next day at work?
Solution. Let 𝐸 be the event that at least 5 cars are serviced. Now,
𝑃 𝐸 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐸 ′ , where 𝐸 ′ is the event that fewer than 5 cars are
serviced. Since

it follows that

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Example. Suppose the manufacturer’s specifications for the length of a certain type of
computer cable are 2000 ± 10 millimeters. In this industry, it is known that small
cable is just as likely to be defective (not meeting specifications) as large cable. That
is, the probability of randomly producing a cable with length exceeding 2010
millimeters is equal to the probability of producing a cable with length smaller than
1990 millimeters. The probability that the production procedure meets
specifications is known to be 0.99. (a) What is the probability that a cable selected
randomly is too large? (b) What is the probability that a randomly selected cable is
larger than 1990 millimeters?

Solution. Let 𝑀 be the event that a cable meets specifications. Let 𝑆 and 𝐿 be the
events that the cable is too small and too large, respectively. Then,

𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 1990 = 𝑃 𝑀 + 𝑃 𝐿 = 0.99 + 0.005 = 0.995

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Example.

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Example. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is
𝑃 𝐷 = 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time is 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.82; and
the probability that it departs and arrives on time is 𝑃 𝐷 ∩ 𝐴 = 0.78.
Find the probability that a plane (a) arrives on time, given that it
departed on time, and (b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on
time.
Solution. Using the definition, we have the following:
(a) The probability that a plane arrives on time, given that it departed on time, is

(b) The probability that a plane departed on time, given that it has arrived on time,
is

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Consider an experiment in which 2 cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary
deck, with replacement. The events are defined as

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Example. A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for
emergencies. The probability that the fire engine is available when
needed is 0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available
when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning
building, find the probability that both the ambulance and the fire
engine will be available, assuming they operate independently.

Solution. Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 represent the respective events that the fire engine and the
ambulance are available. Then,

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Example. An electrical system consists of four components as illustrated in the
figure. The system works if components 𝐴 and 𝐵 work and either of the
components 𝐶 or 𝐷 works. The reliability (probability of working) of each
component is also shown. Find the probability that:
(a) the entire system works and,
(b) the component 𝐶 does not work, given that the entire system works.
Assume that the four components work independently.

Solution. (a) Clearly the probability that the entire system works can be calculated
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 ′
=𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 1−𝑃 𝐶∪𝐷

(b) To calculate the conditional probability in this case, notice that

𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ∪ 𝐷 ∩ 𝐶′ 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶′ ∩ 𝐶 ∪ 𝐶′ ∩ 𝐷
= =
𝑃 the system works 𝑃 the system works

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