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    Lecture-3 STAT 328

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    Lecture-3 STAT 328

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    Lecture-3 STAT 328

    Uploaded by

    The Lost Wolf

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    of 31

    STAT 328: Probabilities & Statistics

    Lecture-3

    Dr.Omar Alrumayh o.alrumayh@qu.edu.sa

    1
    BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY &
    STATISTICS, BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS
    (TOPIC-1)

    2
    Recap!
    • Last Lectures we discussed:
    • Sample space
    • Events
    • Counting techniques (Multiplication, Permutation, and Combination)
    • Probability of an event
    • Today, we are going to discuss the following:
    • Additive Rule
    • Conditional Probability
    • Independence, and the product rule
    • Bayes’ Rule

    3
    Permutation Vs Combination(Review)

    With n1 = 6 sightseeing tours each available on n2 = 3 different days, the multiplication rule
    gives n1n2 = (6)(3) = 18 ways for a person to arrange a tour.

    With n1 = 8 blood types and n2 = 3 classifications of blood pressure, the multiplication


    rule gives n1n2 = (8)(3) = 24 classifications.

    4
    https://byjus.com/maths/difference-between-permutation-and-combination/
    Permutation Vs Combination(Review)

    (a) Any of the n1 = 8 finalists may come in first, and of the n2 =


    7 remaining finalists can then come in second, and so forth. By
    Theorem 2.3, there 8! = 40320 possible orders in which 8
    finalists may finish the spelling bee.

    (b) The possible orders for the first three positions are 8P3 = 8!
    5! = 336.

    5
    https://byjus.com/maths/difference-between-permutation-and-combination/
    Probability-Additive Rule
    • Often it is easiest to calculate the probability of some event from
    known probabilities of other events.
    • Event in question can be represented as the union of two other
    events or as the complement of some event.

    6
    Probability-Additive Rule

    7
    Probability-Additive Rule

    8
    Probability-Additive Rule

    • Theorem 2.7 and its three corollaries should help the reader gain more insight into probability
    and its interpretation.
    • Corollaries 2.1 and 2.2 are dealing with the probability of occurrence of at least one of a number
    of events, no two of which can occur simultaneously.
    • The probability that at least one occurs is the sum of the probabilities of occurrence of the
    individual events.
    • The third corollary simply states that the highest value of a probability (unity) is assigned to the
    entire sample space S.

    9
    Probability-Additive Rule

    10
    Probability-Additive Rule: Example

    11
    Probability-Additive Rule: Example

    12
    Probability-Additive Rule: Example

    13
    Probability-Additive Rule: Example

    14
    Probability-Additive Rule: Example

    15
    Conditional Probability
    • The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has occurred is called
    a conditional probability and is denoted by P(B|A).

    P(B|A): the probability of B, given A


    16
    Conditional Probability
    • As an additional illustration, suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a small town who have completed
    the requirements for a college degree.
    • We shall categorize them according to gender and employment status. The data are given in Table 2.1.
    • Example:

    17
    Conditional Probability

    18
    Conditional Probability
    • Example : One is given the information that the flight did not depart on time. Armed with this additional information, one can
    calculate the more pertinent probability P(A|D!), that is, the probability that it arrives on time, given that it did not depart on
    time.
    • Answer:

    • As a result, the probability of an on-time arrival is diminished severely in the presence of the additional information.

    19
    Conditional Probability

    20
    Independent Events
    • Example : consider an experiment in which 2 cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary deck, with replacement. The
    events are defined as:
    • A: the first card is an ace,
    • B: the second card is a spade.
    • Answer:

    • In other words, the occurrence of B had no impact on the odds of occurrence of A. Here the occurrence of A is independent of
    the occurrence of B.

    21
    The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

    • The probability that two events will both occur.

    22
    The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

    23
    The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

    24
    REVIEW WEEK-1

    25
    Sample Space and Events (Review)

    26
    https://byjus.com/maths/difference-between-permutation-and-combination/
    Sample Space and Events (Review)

    27
    Permutation and Combination(Review)

    28
    Permutation and Combination(Review)
    Find permutation of A,B,C
    A
    A

    B
    B

    C
    C

    29
    Permutation Vs Combination(Review)

    30
    https://byjus.com/maths/difference-between-permutation-and-combination/
    Permutation Vs Combination(Review)
    • Assume we have a S= {A,B,C,D} List all permutation and combination
    Permutation Equation

    Combination

    31

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