AMAT 131 SG 3 Binomial Probability Distribution

The Binomial Probability Distribution
AMAT 131: Statistical Methods and Experimental Designs

Study Guide 3
2nd Semester, AY 2020-2021
Department of Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science

University of the Philippines Mindanao
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT
Some experiments consist of the observation of a sequence of identical and independent trials, each
of which can result in one of two outcomes. Binomial experiment is a discrete random experiment
with the following properties:
Properties of a Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment has a fixed number, 𝑛, of identical trials.
2. Each trial has two possible outcomes or can be reduced to two possible outcomes: “success”
denoted as 𝑆, or “failure” denoted as 𝐹.
Example: the outcomes of a True-or-False question are True (success) and False (failure); the
outcomes of a multiple-choice question, even though there are four or five choices, can be
reduced to two: the correct answer (success) and the incorrect answers (failure)
3. Trials are independent from one another.
4. The probability of success, denoted by 𝑝, on a single trial remains the same from trial to trial.
The probability of failure, denoted by 𝑞, is 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝.
5. The random variable of interest, 𝑌, is the number of successes observed during the 𝑛 trials.
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
The outcomes of a binomial experiment and the corresponding probabilities of these outcomes are
called binomial probability distribution or simply, binomial distribution.
Definition: A random variable 𝑌 is said to have a binomial distribution on 𝑛 trials with success
probability 𝑝 if and only if
𝑃(𝑌) = 𝑝(𝑦) = (𝑛 𝑦 )𝑝 𝑦 𝑞 𝑛−𝑦
𝑦 = 0, 1, 2, … , 𝑛 and 0 ≤ 𝑝 ≤ 1.
𝑃(𝑆): probability of success
𝑃(𝐹): probability of failure
𝑝: numerical probability of success; 𝑃(𝑆) = 𝑝
𝑞: numerical probability of failure; 𝑃(𝐹) = 1 − 𝑝 = 𝑞
𝑛: number of trials
𝑦: number of successes in 𝑛 trials
𝑝(𝑦): binomial probability mass function
Example 1: A coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads.
Solution: The given experiment is a binomial experiment since: (1) the experiment has a fixed
number of trials, that is, 𝑛 = 3, tossing the coin 3 times; (2) each toss will result to two outcomes,
head (H) or tail (T); (3) each toss is independent of one another, the second toss is not affected
by the first toss nor affects the third toss; (4) since the experiment asks for the number of heads,
we can define the head as the success and the tail as the failure, the probability of head in each
toss remains the same, that is, 𝑃(𝐻) = 𝑝 = 0.5; and (5) the random variable, 𝑦 = 2, is getting
exactly two heads in tossing a coin three times.
Given: 𝑛 = 3; 𝑝 = 0.5; 𝑞 = 1 − 0.5 = 0.5; 𝑦 = 2
Using the binomial probability function, the probability of getting exactly two heads is
3
𝑝(2) = (3 2 )𝑝2 𝑞3−2 = = 0.375
8
This problem can also be solved by looking at the sample space
HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
3
There are three ways to get two heads, thus, the probability is . However, when we toss a coin
8
5 or 10 times, finding the probability by exhausting the sample space would be tedious and
sometimes unnecessary.
Example 2: Jollibee plans to open 6 branch outlets in Davao City. From experience, they know
that 20% of the new outlets will experience difficulty in penetrating the sales region and fail.
Using this estimate, determine the probability distribution for the number of these outlets which
will succeed.
Solution: This is a binomial experiment with
𝑛 = 6 (number of Jollibee outlets to be opened)
𝑞 = 0.20 (20% probability that the new outlets will fail)
𝑝 = 1 − 0.20 = 0.80 (probability that a new outlet will succeed)
The probability distribution is
𝑦 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 24 48 256 756 6144 4096
𝑝(𝑦)
15625 15625 3125 3125 3125 15625 15625
1 756
𝑝(0) = (6 0 )𝑝0 𝑞 6−0 = = 0.000064 𝑝(4) = (6 4 )𝑝4 𝑞 6−4 = = 0.245760
15625 3125
24 6144
𝑝(1) = (6 1 )𝑝1 𝑞 6−1 = 15625 = 0.001536 𝑝(5) = (6 5 )𝑝5 𝑞 6−5 = 15625 = 0.393216
48 4096
𝑝(2) = (6 2 )𝑝2 𝑞 6−2 = 3125 = 0.015360 𝑝(6) = (6 6 )𝑝6 𝑞 6−6 = 15625 = 0.262144
256
𝑝(3) = (6 3 )𝑝3 𝑞 6−3 = 3125 = 0.081920
● What is the probability that at least 4 of the outlets will succeed?

Solution: The probability the at least 4 will succeed is
𝑝(𝑦 ≥ 4) = 𝑝(4) + 𝑝(5) + 𝑝(6) = 0.245760 + 0.393216 + 0.262144 = 0.90112 ≈ 0.90
● At most 2 will succeed?
Solution: The probability the at most 2 will succeed is
𝑝(𝑦 ≤ 2) = 𝑝(0) + 𝑝(1) + 𝑝(2) = 0.000064 + 0.001536 + 0.015360 = 0.01696 ≈ 0.017
The term binomial experiment derives from the fact that each trial results in one of two possible
outcomes and that the probabilities 𝑝(𝑦), 𝑦 = 0, 1, 2, … , 𝑛, are terms of the binomial expansion
(𝑞 + 𝑝)𝑛 = (𝑛 0 )𝑞 𝑛 + (𝑛 1 )𝑝1 𝑞 𝑛−1 + (𝑛 2 )𝑝2 𝑞 𝑛−2 + ⋯ + (𝑛 𝑛 )𝑝𝑛
It follows that 𝑝(𝑦) satisfies the necessary properties for a probability function
𝑛
∑ 𝑝(𝑦) = ∑ (𝑛 𝑦 )𝑝 𝑦 𝑞 𝑛−𝑦
𝑦 𝑦=0
= (𝑞 + 𝑝)𝑛
= 1𝑛
=1
Mean, Expected Value, Variance, and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Distribution
Let 𝑌 be a binomial random variable based on 𝑛 trials and success probability 𝑝. Then
𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑌) = 𝑛𝑝
𝜎2 = 𝑉(𝑌) = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
𝜎 = √𝑉(𝑌) = √𝑛𝑝𝑞
Example 3: What is the expected value and variance of the experiment in Example 2?
Solution: Since 𝑛 = 6, 𝑝 = 0.8, and 𝑞 = 0.2
𝐸(𝑌) = (6)(0.8) = 4.8
𝑉(𝑌) = (6)(0.8)(0.2) = 0.96
The expected number of new Jollibee outlets that will succeed in Davao City is 4.8, or
approximately 5 stores.

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The Binomial Probability Distribution

AMAT 131: Statistical Methods and Experimental Designs

Department of Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science

● What is the probability that at least 4 of the outlets will succeed?

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