UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO

Faculty of Arts and Science

JUNE 2017 EXAMINATIONS

STA220H1F

Duration - 3 hours

Last Name: First Name:

Student #:

Instructions:

1. Aids: non-programmable calculators and a two-sided, handwritten 8-1/2" x 11" aid sheet.
2. There are 36 multiple choice questions. Total Marks 50.
3. Submit your answers to the answer sheet given in page 2. If no answer is clearly
circled in the answer sheet, the problem will be marked as incorrect.
4. There are 19 pages including this page. The last 5 pages contain empty pages as scrap
papers, the normal distribution table and the t table. You can rip them off if you want.

Kindly circle your tutorial section:

A Boris Garbuzov LM 157

B Barton Li WI 523

C Daniel G. Cox WI 524

D Jangho Lee BA 1240

E Yang Guo BA 2145

F Xing Shuo Zhai BA 2155

G Lei Sun BA 2165

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 Answer Sheet

1. a b c d e 19. a b c d e

2. a b c d e 20. a b c d e

3. a b c d e 21. a b c d e

4. a b c d e 22. a b c d e

5. a b c d e 23. a b c d e

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8. a b c d e 26. a b c d e

9. a b c d e 27. a b c d e

10. a b c d e 28. a b c d e

11. a b c d e 29. a b c d e

12. a b c d e 30. a b c d e

13. a b c d e 31. a b c d e

14. a b c d e 32. a b c d e

15. a b c d e 33. a b c d e

16. a b c d e 34. a b c d e

17. a b c d e 35. a b c d e

18. a b c d e 36. a b c d e

Correct Problems out of 36

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Circle the correct answer. Submit your answers to the answer sheet given in
page 2. If no answer is clearly circled in the answer sheet, the problem will be
marked as incorrect. No partial credit will be given.

1. By law, a box of cereal labeled as containing 20 ounces must contain at least 20 ounces of cereal.
The machine filling the boxes produces a distribution of fill weights with a mean equal to the
setting on the machine and with a standard deviation equal to 0.04 ounce. To ensure that most of
the boxes contain at least 20 ounces, the machine is set so that the mean fill per box is 20.12 ounces.
Assuming nothing is known about the shape of the distribution, what can be said about the
proportion of cereal boxes that contain less than 20 ounces.

a) The proportion is at most 5.5%. b) The proportion is less than 2.5%.

c) The proportion is at least 89%. d) The proportion is at most 11%.
e) The proportion is at most 20%.

2. The following data represent the scores of 50 students on a statistics exam.

39 51 59 63 66 68 68 69 70 71
71 71 73 74 76 76 76 77 78 79
79 79 79 80 80 82 83 83 83 85
85 86 86 88 88 88 88 89 89 89
90 90 91 91 92 95 96 97 97 98

Which of the following scores would be classified as an outlier?

a) 39 b) 98 c) 39 and 98 d) 39, 97 and 98 e) none of the above

3. The table shows the political affiliations and types of jobs for workers in a particular state.
Suppose a worker is selected at random within the state and the worker's political affiliation and
type of job are noted.
Political Affiliation
Republican Democrat Independent
White collar 7% Ï4% 17%
Type of p b
Blue Collar 11% 19% 32%

Given that the worker is a Democrat, what is the probability that the worker has a white collar
job?

a) 0.246 b) 0.368 c) 0.424 d) 0.579 e) none of the above

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4. High temperatures in a certain city for the month of August follow a uniform distribution over
the interval 78°F to 108°F. Find the temperature which is exceeded by the high temperatures on
90% of the days in August.

a) 108°F b) 81 °F c) 105°F d) 88°F e) 90°F

5. Consider the given discrete probability distribution.

X 1 2 3 4 5
p(x) .1 .2 .2 .3 .2

Find the probability that the value of x falls within one standard deviation of the mean,

a) 0.50 b) 0.68 c) 0.95 d) 0.45 e) 0.60

6. A random variable takes the values 1, 2, 3 where P(X = 1) = 0.5 and E(X) = 1.7, then
P(X = 3) is
a) 0.1 b) 0.2 c) 0.3 d) 0.4 e) none of the above

7. A number between 1 and 10, inclusive, is randomly chosen. Events A, B, C, and D are defined
as follows.

A: {The number is even}

B: {The number is less than 7}
C: {The number is less than or equal to 7}
D: {The number is 5}

Identify one pair of independent events.

a) A and D b) A and C b) B and D d) A and B e) none of the above

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8. Suppose that B\ and B2 are mutually exclusive and complementary events, such that P(B\) =
.6 and P(B2) = .4. Consider another event A such that P(A \ B\) = 2 and P(A | B2) = .5. Find
P(B\\A).

a) 0.800 b) 0.375 c) 0.625 d) 0.240 e) none of the above

9. The temperatures of summer weather this year are normally distributed with mean 38 degrees
and standard deviation 4 degrees. The smallest temperature for the hottest 10% of the temperatures

a) 10% b) 43.12 c) 32.88 d) 90% e) 39.05

10. Refer to problem #9. If a day is taken at random, what is the probability that its temperature
exceeds 43.1 degrees?

a) 0.95 b) 0.10 c) 0.05 d) 0.01 e)0.15

11. Refer to problem #9. If 3 days are taken at random, what is the probability that at least one day
will have temperature more than 43.1 degrees?
a) 0.010 b) 0.729 c) 0.271 d) 0.300 e) 0.317

12. Refer to problem #9. If 9 days are taken at random, what is the probability that their temperature
average exceeds the true mean by more than 2 degrees?

a) 0.6915 b) 0.9332 c) 0.3085 d) 0.0668 e) none of the above

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13. A box contains 10 identical cards numbered - 1 , - 1 , - 1 , 0 , 0 , 1 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 3 . A number is drawn
randomly from the box. Let X be the number drawn . Find the variance of X.
a) 1.11 b) 2.21 c) 0.5 d) 2.54 e) none of the above

14. Let X= the number of heads appearing when a balanced coin is tossed 5 times.
P(X > 1\X < 3) =

a) 0.235 b) 1 c) 0.385 d) 0.625 e) none of the above

15. If the level of significance a of a hypothesis test is raised from 0.01 to 0.05, then P(acceptance
Ho| Hi )

a) will also be increased from 0.01 to 0.05 b) will not be changed

c) will be decreased d) will be increased to a unknown value e) none of the above

16. In testing Ho: // =75 versus Hi: ju>15, take a sample of size 25 and reject Ho if X>11.
2
Assume <r =22. The level of significance a for this test is

a) 0.0435 b) 0.9838 c) 0.0166 d) 0.3772 e) 0.0500

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17. In a test of Ho: /i = 12 against H a : (u > 12, a sample of w = 75 observations possessed
mean x = 13.1 and standard deviation s = 4.3. Find the p-value for the test.

a) 0.0132 b) 0.0212 c) 0.0500 d) 0.3012 e) 0.0475

18. The lifetime (age) in hours of two independent random samples of two types of batteries (I, II)
gave the following data
Battery type Sample size Sample mean Sample standard deviation
I 9 90 3
II 10 80 4

Let Hi, jj.2 be the respective population means of the two batteries, and let a l t o 2 be the
respective population standard deviations. A 98% CI for Hi is :
a) (87.10, 92.90) b) (86.18, 92.82) c) (83.03, 90.97) d) (6.10, 11.90)
e) (88.3,93.81)

19. Refer to problem #18. A 95% CI for — [i2 is (assume = o2) :

a) (-2.34, 22.34) b) (8.18, 11.82) c) (4.37, 15.63) d) (6.54, 13.46) e) (5.44,12.34)

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20. A researcher wants to determine if a certain medicine reduces blood pressure (BP) of patients.
He conducted an experiment and data were as follows:

Patient 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mean Standard deviation

Number

BP before (X) 70 80 76 74 68 84 75.33 6.02

BP after (Y) 68 72 58 74 72 74 69.67 5.59

d=X-Y 2 8 18 0 -4 10 5.67 7.25

A 99% CI for the mean BP reduction is :

a) (-7.4. 18.74) b) (1.22, 10.12) c) (-6.26, 17.6) d) (-5.24, 16.58) e) (2.33, 17.31)

21. It is desired to estimate the population proportion p of defective items by a 96% CI. The
sample size needed so that the 96% CI has length 0.15 (i.e. sampling error=0.075) is :
a) 136 b) 34 c) 187 d) 47 e) none of the above

22. It is desired to test Ho : p=50 vs. Hi : fi 50 using the sample mean X of a large sample of
100 observation. If the value of the Z test statistics is 1.36, the p-value of this test is:
a) 0.4131 b) 0.1738 c) 0.2066 d) 0.0869 e) 0.1033

23. An ink cartridge for a laser printer is advertised to print an average of 10,000 pages. A random
sample of eight businesses that have recently bought this cartridge are asked to report the number
of pages printed by a single cartridge. The results are shown.

9771 9811 9885 9914

9975 10,079 10,145 10,214

Assume that the data belong to a normal population. The test statistics used to test the null
hypothesis that the mean number of pages is 10,000 against the alternative hypothesis jj. £ 10,000
is

a) t=—0.458 b) t=2.345 c)t=1.895 d))t=-2.65 e) t=0.668

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24. A random sample of 50 employees of a large company was asked the question, "Do you
participate in the company's stock purchase plan?" The answers are shown below.

yes no no yes no no yes yes no no

no yes yes yes no yes no no yes yes
no yes yes no yes yes no yes yes yes
yes no no yes yes yes yes yes no yes
no yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes

A point estimator of the proportion of employees who participate in the company's stock purchase
plan is:
a) 0.64 b) 0.55 c) 0.50 d) 0.73 e) none of the above

25. Refer to problem #24. A 90% confidence interval to estimate the proportion of employees
who participate in the company's stock purchase plan.

a) (0.528, 0.752) b) (0.431, 0.833) c) (0.460, 0.732) d) (0.235, 0.657) e) (0.628, 0.858)

26. The average score of all golfers for a particular course has a mean of 61 and a standard
deviation of 3.5. Suppose 49 golfers played the course today. Find the probability that the average
score of the 49 golfers exceeded 62.

a) 0.1293 b) 0.4772 c) 0.3707 d) 0.0228 e) none of the above

27. Consider a test of Hq: h = 4. For the following case, give the rejection region for the test in
terms of the z-statistic: H a : 4, a = 0.01

a) z > 2.33 b ) z > 2.575 c) |z| > 2.575 d) |z| > 2.33 e) \z\ > 2.25

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28. A small private college is interested in determining the percentage of its students who live off
campus and drive to class. Specifically, it was desired to determine if less than 20% of their current
students live off campus and drive to class. Suppose a sample of 108 students produced a test
statistic of z = — 1.35. Find the p-value for the test of interest to the college.

a) 0.4115 b) 0.9115 c) 0.0885 d) 0.1770 e) none of the above

29. Suppose we wish to test Ho: fi - 39 vs. H a : // < 39. Which of the following possible sample
results gives the most evidence to support HA (i.e., reject Hq)?
a) * = 37, 5 = 4 b) x = 35, s = 3 c) I = 36, 5 = 6 d) x = 35, 5 = 7 e) none of
the above

30. A company claims that 9 out of 10 doctors (i.e., 90%) recommend its brand of cough syrup to
their patients. To test this claim against the alternative that the actual proportion is less than 90%,
a random sample of doctors was taken. Suppose the test statistic is z = —1.75. Can we conclude
that Hq should be rejected at the /) a = 0.10, //) a = 0.05 and III) a = 0.01 level?
a) I) yes; II) yes; III) yes
b) I) yes; II) yes; III) no
c) I) no; II) no; III) no
d) I) no; II) no; III) yes
e) none of the above

31. In a certain group of 100 students, 90 get a flu shot and 10 don't. The probability of catching
the flu for students with a flu shot is 0.1 ; the probability of catching the flu for students without a
flu shot is 0.2. A student is chosen at random; that student has caught the flu. Calculate the
probability that this student had a flu shot.
a) 0.9121 b) 0.8182 c) 0.1155 d) 0.9474 e) 0.4432

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32. Independent random samples selected from two normal populations produced the following
sample means and standard deviations.

Sample 1 Sample 2
?q= 14 tq — 11
I l =7.1 12 = 8.4
51=2.3 ^2 = 2.9

Find the 95% confidence interval for (^j - ^2). Assume unequal variances.

a) (-3.45, 0.85) b) (-3.68, 1.08) c) (-2.51, 2.43) d) (-2.85, 1.32) e) (-3.97, 0.98)

33. Which one of the following suggests that the data set is not approximately normal? Choose the
most appropriate one.

Stem Leaves
3 0 3 9
4 2 4 7 7
5 1 3 4 S 8 9 9 9
6 0 0 5 6 6 7 8
7 1 1 5
8 2 7

b) A data set with IQR = 752 and 5 = 574.

c)
y
«
i * *
.s •

Expected t values

d) A data set with 68% of the measurements within x ± 2s.

e) data set with Qi = 1330, Q3 = 2940, and 5 = 1.

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34. Below are the results of a survey of America's best graduate and professional schools. The top
25 business schools, as determined by reputation, student selectivity, placement success, and
graduation rate, are listed in the table. For each school, three variables were measured: (1) GMAT
score for the typical incoming student; (2) student acceptance rate (percentage accepted of all
students who applied); and (3) starting salary of the typical graduating student.

School GMAT Acc. Rate Salary

1. Harvard 644 15.0% $ 63,000
2. Stanford 665 10.2 60,000
3. Penn 644 19.4 55,000
4. Northwestern 640 22.6 54,000
5. MIT 650 21.3 57,000
6. Chicago 632 30.0 55,269
7. Duke 630 18.2 53,300
8. Dartmouth 649 13.4 52,000
9. Virginia 630 23.0 55,269
10. Michigan 620 32.4 53.300
11. Columbia 635 37.1 52,000
12. Cornell 648 14.9 50,700
13. CMU 630 31.2 52,050
14. UNC 625 15.4 50,800
15. Cal-Berkeley 634 24.7 50,000
16. UCLA 640 20.7 51,494
17. Texas 612 28.1 43,985
18. Indiana 600 29.0 44,119
19. NYU 610 35.0 53,161
20. Purdue 595 26.8 43,500
21. use 610 31.9 49,080
22. Pittsburgh 605 33.0 43,500
23. Georgetown 617 31.7 45,156
24. Maryland 593 28.1 42,925
25. Rochester 605 35.9 44,499

The academic advisor wants to predict the typical starting salary of a graduate at a top business
school using GMAT score of the school as a predictor variable. A simple linear regression of
SALARY versus GMAT using the 25 data points in the table are shown below.

/?0 = -92040 p\ - 2 2 8 s = 3213 ^ = .66 r = .81 df=23 t = 6.67

Predict the starting salary of a graduate with a GMAT score 700

a)$67560 b) $70000 c) $78960 d) 66250 e) none of the above

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35. Refer to Problem 30). For the situation above, give a practical interpretation of = 228.
a) We estimate GMAT to increase 228 points for every $1 increase in SALARY.
b) We expect to predict SALARY to within 2(228) = $456 of its true value using GMAT in a
straight-line model.
c) The value has no practical interpretation since a GMAT of 228 is nonsensical and outside the
range of the sample data.
d) We estimate SALARY to increase $228 for every 1-point increase in GMAT.
e) None of the above.

36. Refer to Problem 30). For the situation above, give a practical interpretation of r 2 = .66.
a) We estimate SALARY to increase $.66 for every 1-point increase in GMAT.
b) We can predict SALARY correctly 66% of the time using GMAT in a straight-line model.
c) We expect to predict SALARY to within 2(a/6€) of its true value using GMAT in a straight-line
model.
d) 66% of the sample variation in SALARY can be explained by using GMAT in a straight-line
model.
e) None of the above.

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 APPENDIX B • Tables 817

Table III Critical Values of f

Degrees of
f
Freedom- :
f.ïOQ İ050 ; / f.025 ^010 .005 *Q01 f,0005

1 3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.657 31.8.31 636.62

2 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 22.326 31.598
3 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 10.213 12.924
4 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 7.173 8.610
5 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 5.893 6.869
6 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 5.208 5.959
7 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 4.785 5.408
8 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355 4.501 5.041
9 1.383 1.833 2,262 2.821 3.250 4.297 4.781
10 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 4.144 4.587
11 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 4.025 4.437
12 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 3.930 4.318
13 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 3.852 4.221
14 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977 3.787 4.140
15 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947 3.733 4.073
16 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921 3.686 4.015
17 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898 3.646 3.965
18 1.330 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 3.610 3.922
19 1.328 ' 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.579 3.883
20 1.325 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 3.552 3.850
21 1.323 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 3.527 3.819
22 1.321 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819 3.505 3.792
23 1.319 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807 3.485 3.767
24 1.318 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797 3.467 3.745
25 1.316 1.708 2.060 2.485 2.787 3.450 3.725
26 1.315 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779 3.435 3.707
27 1.314 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771 3.421 3.690
28 1.313 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763 3.408 3.674
29 1.311 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 3.396 3.659
30 1.310 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750 3.385 3.646
40 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.423 2.704 3.307 3.551
60 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.390 2.660 3.232 3.460
120 1.289 1.658 1.980 2.358 2.617 3.160 3.373
00 1.282 1..645 1.960 2.326 2.576 3.090 3.291
j.

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816 APPENDIX B • Tables

Tablé II Normal Curve Areas

.00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09

.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 ^ .1517
.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879
.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2517 .2549
.7 .2580 .2611 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
1.0 .3413 .3438 .3461 .3485 .3508 .3531 .3554 .3577 .3599 .3621
1.1 .3643 .3665 .3686 .3708 .3729 .3749 .3770 .3790 .3810 .3830
1.2 .3849 .3869 .3888 .3907 .3925 .3944 .3962 .3980 .3997 ; .4015
1.3 .4032 .4049 .4066 .4082 .4099 .4115 .4131 .4147 .4162 .4177
1.4 .4192 .4207 .4222 .4236 .4251 .4265 .4279 .4292 .4306 .4319
1.5 .4332 .4345 .4357 .4370 .4382 .4394 .4406 .4418 .4429 .4441
1.6 .4452 .4463 .4474 .4484 .4495 . .4505 .4515 .4525 .4535 .4545
1.7 .4554 .4564 .4573 .4582 .4591 .4599 .4608 .4616 .4625 .4633
1.8 .4641 .4649 .4656 .4664 .4671 .4678 .4686 .4693 .4699 .4706
1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
2.0 .4772 .4778 .4783 .4788 .4793 .4798 .4803 .4808 .4812 .4817
2.1 .4821 .4826 .4830 .4834 .4838 .4842 .4846 .4850 .4854 .4857
2.2 .4861 .4864 .4868 .4871 .4875 .4878 .4881 .4884 .4887 .4890
r
2.3 .4893 .4896 .4898 .4901 .4904 .4906 .4909 .4911 .4913 .4916
2.4 .4918 .4920 .4922 .4925 .4927 .4929 .4931 .4932 .4934 .4936
2.5 .4938 .4940 .4941 .4943 .4945 .4946 .4948 .4949 .4951 .4952
2.6 .4953 .4955 .4956 .4957 .4959 .4960 .4961 .4962 .4963 .4964
2.7 .4965 .4966 .4967 .4968 .4969 .4970 .4971 .4972 .4973 .4974
2.8 .4974 .4975 .4976 .4977 .4977 .4978 .4979 .4979 .4980 .4981
2.9 .4981 .4982 .4982 .4983 .4984 .4984 .4985 .4985 .4986 .4986
3.0 .4987 .4987 .4987 .4988 .4988 .4989 .4989 .4989 .4990 .4990

Source: Abridged from Table I of A. Hald, Statistical Tables and Formulas (New York; Wiley), 1952.

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