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    Chapter 3.1 Conditional Probability

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    Fauzi Twojit
    The document discusses mutually exclusive events and provides an example. It then gives probability information about flight arrivals from an airline, including the probabilities of early, on time, late, and canceled arrivals. It notes that the probability of a flight being both early and late is 0, since those events are mutually exclusive. Finally, it provides the formula for calculating conditional probability.

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    Chapter 3.1 Conditional Probability

    Uploaded by

    Fauzi Twojit
    141 views22 pages
    The document discusses mutually exclusive events and provides an example. It then gives probability information about flight arrivals from an airline, including the probabilities of early, on time, late, and canceled arrivals. It notes that the probability of a flight being both early and late is 0, since those events are mutually exclusive. Finally, it provides the formula for calculating conditional probability.

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    The document discusses mutually exclusive events and provides an example. It then gives probability information about flight arrivals from an airline, including the probabilities of early, on time, late, and canceled arrivals. It notes that the probability of a flight being both early and late is 0, since those events are mutually exclusive. Finally, it provides the formula for calculating conditional probability.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    141 views22 pages

    Chapter 3.1 Conditional Probability

    Uploaded by

    Fauzi Twojit
    The document discusses mutually exclusive events and provides an example. It then gives probability information about flight arrivals from an airline, including the probabilities of early, on time, late, and canceled arrivals. It notes that the probability of a flight being both early and late is 0, since those events are mutually exclusive. Finally, it provides the formula for calculating conditional probability.

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    Mutually Exclusive Events

    Events do not occur


    simultaneously

    A and B does not contain
    any sample points, thus
    P(A B) = 0
    +
    Mutually Exclusive Events
    1
    S
    Mutually Exclusive Events
    Example
    Events + andv are Mutually Exclusive
    Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Suit.
    Outcomes
    in event
    Heart:
    2
    v
    , 3
    v
    , 4
    v
    , ..., A
    v
    Sample
    Space:
    2
    v
    , 2
    +
    ,
    2
    +
    , ..., A
    +
    Event Spade:
    2
    +
    , 3
    +
    , 4
    +
    , ..., A
    +
    2
    EXAMPLE

    New England Commuter Airways recently
    supplied the following information on their
    commuter flights from Boston to New York:

    Arrival Frequency
    Early 100
    On Time 800
    Late 75
    Canceled 25
    Total 1000


    EXAMPLE continued
    If A is the event that a flight arrives early, then
    P(A) = 100/1000 = 0.10

    If B is the event that a flight arrives late, then:
    P(B) = 75/1000 = 0.075
    The probability that a flight is either early or late is:
    P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
    = 0 .10 + 0.075 0 = 0.175
    Note :
    P(AB) = 0 because a plane cannot be early and late at the same
    time so they are mutually exclusive events.

    Conditional Probability
    5
    Conditional Probability
    1. Probability that an event will occur given that
    another event has already occurred
    2. If A and B are two events, then the conditional
    probability of A given B is written as
    3.
    P(A | B)
    and read as the probability of A given that B has
    already occurred or known.
    6
    Conditional Probability
    4. The formula for conditional probability is
    P(A | B)
    =
    P(A and B)
    =
    P(A B)
    P(B) P(B)
    7
    Conditional Probability Using Two
    Way Table
    Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Color . What is the
    probability of getting Ace given that the card is Black?
    Color
    Type Red Black Total
    Ace 2 2 4
    Non-Ace
    24
    24 48
    Total 26 26 52
    8
    Conditional Probability Using Two
    Way Table
    Answer:
    Color
    Type Red Black Total
    Ace 2 2 4
    Non-Ace
    24
    24 48
    Total 26 26 52
    P(Ace Black) 2/ 52 2
    P(Ace | Black) =
    P(Black) 26/ 52 26

    = =
    9
    1. Event occurrence does not
    affect probability of another
    event
    Toss 1 coin twice
    3. Tests for independence
    P(A | B) = P(A)
    P(A B) = P(A)*P(B)
    Statistical Independence
    10
    Using the table then the formula, whats the probability?

    Thinking Challenge
    1. P(A|D) =
    2. P(C|B) =
    3. Are C & B
    Independent?
    Event
    Event C D Total
    A 4 2 6
    B 1 3 4
    Total 5 5 10
    11
    Solution*
    Using the formula, the probabilities Are:
    Dependent
    P(A | D) =
    P(A D)
    P(D)

    = =
    2 10
    5 10
    2
    5
    /
    /
    P(C | B) =
    P(C B)
    P(B)
    P(C) =

    5
    10

    = =

    1 10
    4 10
    1
    4
    1
    4
    /
    /
    = P(C | B)
    12
    13
    CHAPTER 3
    Question:
    A petrol station manager did a survey on his customers and found
    the following information.








    Payment
    Customer Credit Card Cash
    Regular 40 70
    Non-Regular 25 45
    14
    CHAPTER 3
    Question:

    (v) Assume we know that the customer is regular. What is the
    probability that he will pay in credit?

    (ii) Assume customer has paid in cash. Whats the probability
    that he is a regular customer?

    (iii) Are the two events, being a regular customer and paying
    in cash, statistically independent? Explain.










    Multiplicative Rule
    15
    Multiplicative Rule
    1. Used to get compound probabilities for
    intersection of events
    Called joint events
    2. For Dependent Events:
    P(A and B) = P(A B)
    = P(A)*P(B|A)
    = P(B)*P(A|B)
    3. For Independent Events:
    P(A and B) = P(A B) = P(A)*P(B)
    16
    Multiplicative Rule Example
    Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color & Suit.
    Color
    Type Red Black Total
    Ace 2 2 4
    Non-Ace 24 24 48
    Total 26 26 52
    4 2 2
    52 4 52
    | || |
    = =
    | |
    \ .\ .
    P(Ace Black) = P(Ace)P(Black | Ace)
    17
    Thinking Challenge
    1. P(C B) =
    2. P(B D) =
    3. P(A B) =
    Event
    Event C D Total
    A 4 2 6
    B 1 3 4
    Total 5 5 10
    Using the multiplicative rule, whats the probability?
    18
    Solution*
    Using the multiplicative rule, the probabilities
    are:
    P(C B) = P(C) P(B| C) = 5/10 * 1/5 = 1/10

    P(B D) = P(B) P(D| B) = 4/10 * 3/4 = 3/10

    P(A B) = P(A) P(B| A) 0

    =
    19
    Exercise 1
    Events A and B in a sample S have the following
    probabilities:

    P(A) = 0.4 , P(B) = 0.3 , P(A B) = 0.2

    Find
    (i) P(A B).
    (ii) P(A|B).
    (iii) Are A and B statistically independent events?


    20
    Exercise 2
    Two thousand randomly selected adults were asked if
    they are in favor of or against cloning. The following
    responses were given.
    Opinion
    Gender
    In Favor Against
    Total
    Male
    500 700
    Female
    300
    500
    Total
    21
    Exercise 2
    If an adult is selected at random from this group, find the
    probability that this adult is:

    (i) in favor of cloning.

    (ii) against cloning.

    (iii) in favor of cloning given the person is female.

    (iv) a male given that the person is against cloning.


    22

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