PPT05-Quantifying Uncertainty
PPT05-Quantifying Uncertainty
PPT05-Quantifying Uncertainty
Week 5
Quantifying Uncertainty
LEARNING OUTCOMES
o Therefore :
P(red yellow) = P(red) + P(yellow) – P(red yellow)
P(red yellow) = 0.75 + 0.35 – 0.5 = 0.6
INFERENCE USING FULL JOINT
o DISTRIBUTIONS
A complete specification of the state of the world about which
the agent is uncertain
E.g., if the world consists of only two Boolean variables
Cavity and Toothache, then there are 4 distinct atomic
events:
o For any proposition φ, sum the atomic events where it is true: P(φ)
= Σω:ω╞φ P(ω)
INFERENCE USING FULL JOINT
DISTRIBUTIONS
Inference by Enumeration
o Start with the joint probability distribution:
P( E / H
n 1
n ) * P( H n )
PROBABILITY AND BAYES’ THEOREM
Example 1:
Vany had onset of symptoms such as spots on the face. Doctor diagnose that Vany
got chicken pox with the possibility:
Probability appearance of spots on the face, if Vany got chicken pox, p
(spots/chicken pox) = 0,8
Probability Vany got chicken pox without notice any symptoms, p(chicken pox) =
0,4
Probability appearance of spots on the face, if Vany got allergy, p(spots/allergy) =
0,3
Probability Vany got allergy without notice any symptoms, p(allergy) = 0,7
Probability appearance of spots on the face, if Vany got pimples, p(spots/pimples)
= 0,9
Probability that Vany got pimples without notice any symptoms, p(pimples) = 0,5
Calculate the probability of each symptoms stated above!
PROBABILITY AND BAYES’ THEOREM
Solution:
p (chickenpox / spots )
p(spots/ch ickenpox) * p(chickenp ox)
p(spots/ch ickenpox) * p(chickenp ox) p(spots/al lergy) * p(allergy) p(spots/pi mples) * p(pimples)
p(chickenp ox/spots)
(0,8) * (0,4) 0,32
0,327
(0,8) * (0,4) (0,3) * (0,7) (0,9) * (0,5 0,98
or in distribution form :
PROBABILITY AND BAYES’ THEOREM
Applying Bayes' Rule : the simple case
o Perceive as evidence the effect of some unknown cause and to
determine that cause. Bayes’ rule become :
PROBABILITY AND BAYES’ THEOREM
Example:
o The doctor also know some unconditional fact : the prior probability
that patient has meningitis is (1/50000), and prior probability that any
patient has stiff neck is 1 %.
o Letting :
s = the proposition that the patient has a stiff neck
m = the proposition that the patient has meningitis
PROBABILITY AND BAYES’ THEOREM
Bayes' Rule : Combining Evidence
P(Cavity | toothache catch)
= αP(toothache catch | Cavity) P(Cavity)
= αP(toothache | Cavity) P(catch | Cavity) P(Cavity)
o This is an example of a naive Bayes model:
o P(Cause,Effect1, … ,Effectn) = P(Cause)πiP(Effecti|Cause)
o
Total number of parameters is linear in n
SUMMARY
o Uncertainty arises because of both laziness and ignorance. It is
inescapable in complex, nondeterministic, or partially observable
environments.Decision theory combines the agent’s beliefs and
desires, defining the best action as the one that maximizes
expected utility.
o Basic probability statements include prior probabilities and
conditional probabilities over simple and complex propositions.
o The axioms of probability constrain the possible assignments of
probabilities to propositions. An agent that violates the axioms
must behave irrationally in some cases.
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SUMMARY
o The full joint probability distribution specifies the probability of
each complete assignment of values to random variables. It is
usually too large to create or use in its explicit form, but when it is
available it can be used to answer queries simply by adding up
entries for the possible worlds corresponding to the query
propositions.
o Bayes’ rule allows unknown probabilities to be computed from
known conditional probabilities, usually in the causal direction.
Applying Bayes’ rule with many pieces of evidence runs into the
same scaling problems as does the full joint distribution.
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REFERENCES
o Stuart Russell, Peter Norvig,. 2010. Artificial intelligence: a
modern approach. PE. New Jersey. ISBN:9780132071482,
Chapter 13
o Elaine Rich, Kevin Knight, Shivashankar B. Nair. 2010.
Artificial Intelligence. MHE. New York. , Chapter 7
o Reasoning under Uncertainty:
http://aitopics.net/Uncertainty
o Handling Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, and the
Bayesian Controversy:
http://eprints.ucl.ac.uk/16378/1/16378.pdf
ThankYOU...
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