Will Thin Films win in India?

Madhavan Nampoothiri

April 19, 2012

Berlin, Germany
 About RESolve
• Advisory firm with strong capabilities in Strategic, Regulatory ,
Commercial and Technical aspects of renewable energy projects

• Founded by professionals from India and Germany with strong

global exposure

• Specific focus on Solar PV and Wind in India

• Assistance in
– Market Entry strategy for solar firms to India
– Market Intelligence on the Indian Solar PV sector
– Concept-to-Commissioning of PV projects
– Policy and Regulatory issues
 Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion
 Agenda

1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion
 Sun Shines on India
- Solar Resource availability
- 4-7 kWh/Sq.m/day in most parts of India
- Energy supply-demand imbalance
- 80% of oil is imported
- High reliance on imported coal
- Peak power deficit of 12.7%
- 50% of India’s population has very little access to electricity
- GHG emissions
- Policy and Regulatory support(MNRE and various state
governments)

India Solar PV growth trajectory

600
482
500 446
400
MWp

300
Annual PV Installations
200
Cumulative Installations
100 27 36
9 9
0
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Year
Source: MNRE
Major focus on ground mounted systems
 Policies and Status
Policy(Grid- Capacity Projects Commissi Domestic
connected PV) addition targets allocated oning content
status(31st status(31st requirement(
March 2012) March DCR)
2012)
JNNSM 10 GWp by 2022 ~ 600 MWp ~ 150 C-Si : Cells
allotted in Phase MWp and Modules
1(including TF : No
migration mandate
projects)
Rajasthan 350 MWp by Nil Nil No
2017
Gujarat 500 MWp by ~ 500 MWp ~ 300 No
2014 MWp
Madhya Pradesh RPO targets None. 200 MWp Nil Same as
planned for JNNSM
2012-13
Orissa RPO targets 25 MWp Nil No

Maharashtra RPO targets 150 MWp Nil; In No

process
Karnataka 100 MWp by None. In process Nil No
2016
Regulations

Renewable Purchase 25 GW(PV and Not applicable ~43 MWp No

Obligations(RPO) Thermal) by in Private
Gujarat – 500 MWp solar park 2022 sector
 Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in

India ?
3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion
 C-Si dominates in production….

• C-Si Module manufacturing capacity ~ 1500 MW

• C-Si Cell manufacturing capacity ~ 600 MW
• Thin film manufacturing capacity – Negligible
– Moser Baer, Shurjo Energy and HHV Solar

....but, Thin Film dominates in installations

Technology selection under JNNSM Gujarat State policy
120 - 60-70% thin films
Installations in MWp

100
80
60
40
20
0
- India bucks the global trend
Total IREDA NVVN - Thin films grabbed more
Type of scheme than 60% market share
C‐Si Thin Films
Source: MNRE
 India – a good export market for global TF
companies
a-Si/μc-Si CIGS CdTe

Dupont USA MiaSolé USA First Solar USA

ECD/Uni-solar USA Q-Cells(Solibro) Germany Abound Solar USA
Masdar PV Germany SolarFrontier Japan
NexPower China
Schott Solar Germany
Sharp Japan
T-Solar Spain
Note: The above is a partial list of TF companies in India

-CdTe very popular, First Solar has high market share(about 200
MWp); 40 MWp plant commissioned in March 2012
- a-Si, despite lower efficiencies, has gained acceptance
-CIGS also has takers
 Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion
 Growth Drivers

Technology
-Temperature
coefficient
-Spectral response

Cost
Financing
- Lower module - Ease of
cost financing
- Inexpensive land
through
EXIM/ECB route
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?

3. What is driving the growth?

a. Technology

4. What could happen?

 Thin Film Vs c-Si

Advantages Disadvantages
• Temperature coefficient • Conversion efficiencies
• Better performance under • Area requirement
diffuse light conditions • Higher BOS requirement
• Higher Energy Yield • Breakage
• Faster energy payback • Aging behavior not known
• Module grounding not • Materials shortage/toxicity
required for frameless
modules
Temperature coefficient & Spectral response
– The TF USP..
Efficiency drop at elevated
temperatures
14%
13%
Cconversion efficiency

12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Temperature(Deg C)

a‐Si CdTe CIGS

C‐Si(Mono) c‐Si(Multi)

- Higher theoretical TF • Better performance under diffuse

energy yield during peak light; lesser shading effect
season • Higher energy yield
 The result : Higher energy yield for TF
6 months performance
data from L&T – TF
generating 20% more
than c‐Si

Source: GTM Research

- Theoretically, TF consistently generating more electricity

But..
‐ First Solar raised the warranty outlay for modules used in
hotter regions
‐ Anxiety about long term performance of TF is growing
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?

3. What is driving the growth?

b. Costs

4. What could happen?

 Module cost : C-Si closing in, but TF still
maintains some advantage.
Spot price(Euro/Wp)
2,25

2,05

1,85

1,65
Euro/Wp

1,45

1,25

1,05

0,85

0,65

0,45
Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug Sep 10Okt 10 Nov Dez 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mrz Apr 11 Mai Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug Sep 11Okt 11 Nov Dez 11 Jan 12 Feb 12
10 10 11 11 11 11

Avg C‐Si(Germany) Avg C‐Si(Japan/Korea) Avg c‐Si(China/Taiwan)

CdTe Silicon Tandem(a‐Si/Micro‐Si) Amorphous Silicon

‐CIGS price/Wp closer to c‐Si

Source: pvxchange.com and others

 Land, BoS and O&M Costs
– Disadvantage for Thin Films
BOS cost comparison : c-Si v CdTe

$13,000 higher for Thin Film plant Source: GTM Research

Land, BOS and O&M high Still …
• Land requirement higher for Thin Films(Leads to more Overall cost lower than c-Si
exposed area – more cleaning, more manpower • Land cost in India is negligible
requirement) • Higher BOS cost offset by lower module
• BoS requirement higher because of lower efficiencies price
(More BOS means more Strings, more cable, more • O&M Labor cost low
Fuses and more breakdown possibilities)

Marketing mantra for TF -$/kWh and not $/Wp

1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?

3. What is driving the growth?

c. Financing
4. What could happen?
 Cost of Financing

• Local Content Requirement for c-Si, but not for TF

• Project financing – very challenging to secure

• Indian banks are more comfortable with recourse-to-balance sheet financing

• EXIM, ECB banks offer attractive interest rates

• Even after hedging and insurance, cost of capital at 8-9% as against 13%+ for local
financing

But….
US EXIM financed company – Abound Solar has shut
down production
 Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion
 Thin films domination to continue, but there
are clouds on the horizon
• JNNSM - Round 2 : 350 MW allotted
– 300 MWp of projects will be in Rajasthan
– At least 250 MW expected to go for thin films

• State solar policies(Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan) – TF likely

to dominate

• But questions about stability of performance at high

temperature set to increase
• Bankability of TF companies(eg. Abound Solar) is
also a concern
 Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What could happen?

5. Conclusion
 Takeaways..
• Thin film technology adopted by majority of Indian
developers
• Yield, lower capital cost and better financing options
driving TF growth in India
• Local content mandates have had limited impact
• Global TF manufacturers benefitting from India’s
solar boom…
• … but the Indian TF manufacturing ecosystem is yet
to evolve
 Conclusion – Thin film will win in India, if..

• Bankability questions are properly answered.

– First Solar performance in high temperature conditions
– Abound Solar’s capabilities

• Higher energy yield is proven in the field over a period

of time

• Thin Film remains cost competitive(land cost, capital

cost, O&M cost) relative to c-Si

Bottom line – Technology with best $/kWp will win

Thank you

Madhavan Nampoothiri
+91-98848-29214
madhavan@re-solve.in
www.re-solve.in