REGIONALSPECIALISED METEOROLOGICALCENTRE-TROPICALCYCLONES,NEW DELHI

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

DEMS-RSMCSPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15.06.2023

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)

STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 71 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 48 HOURS ISSUED AT 0830 UTC OF
15.06.2023 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 15.06.2023
SUB: VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “BIPARJOY” (PRONOUNCED AS “BIPORJOY”) OVER
NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (CYCLONE WARNING FOR SAURASHTRA & KUTCH
COASTS (RED MESSAGE)
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “BIPARJOY” (PRONOUNCED AS “BIPORJOY”) OVER
NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SPEED OF 8 KMPH DURING
PAST 6-HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF 15TH JUNE, 2023 OVER THE SAME
REGION NEAR LATITUDE 22.8°N AND LONGITUDE 67.3°E, ABOUT 140 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF JAKHAU PORT (GUJARAT), 190 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEVBHUMI DWARKA (42731),
170 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NALIYA (42631), 280 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORBANDAR
(42830), AND 230 KM SOUTH OF KARACHI (PAKISTAN, 41780).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS SAURASHTRA &
KUTCH AND ADJOINING PAKISTAN COASTS BETWEEN MANDVI (GUJARAT, 42729) AND
KARACHI (PAKISTAN, 41780) NEAR JAKHAU PORT (GUJARAT) AROUND 1500 UTC OF 15TH
JUNE AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF
115-125 KMPH GUSTING TO 140 KMPH. THE LANDFALL PROCESS WILL COMMENCE FROM
1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH JUNE AND CONTINUE TILL 1800 UTC.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
0
(UTC) (LAT. N/ WIND SPEED (KMPH) DISTURBANCE
0
LONG. E)
15.06.23/0600 22.8/67.3 120-130 Gusting To 145 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.06.23/1200 23.2/67.8 115-125 Gusting To 140 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.06.23/1800 23.7/68.7 105-115 Gusting To 125 Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.06.23/0000 24.2/69.4 75-85 Gusting To 95 Cyclonic Storm
16.06.23/0600 24.7/70.2 50-60 Gusting To 70 Deep Depression
16.06.23/1800 25.6/71.5 35-45 Gusting To 55 Well Marked Low Pressure Area

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T4.0/C.I.4.0. ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY MAINLY OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 20.0°N & 24.0°N
AND LONGITUDE 63.0°E & 69°E AND WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER
SOUTHEAST PAKISTAN, GULF OF KUTCH AND ENTIRE GUJARAT STATE. MINIMUM CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 90°C. MAJOR CONVECTION AREA IS SEEN IN SOUTHWEST
SECTOR. MULTISAT WINDS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTOR. ANIMATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERIES INDICATE REORGANISATION
OF CLOUDS DURING PAST 3 HOURS.

ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED (MSW) IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75

KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 HPA. SEA CONDITION IS LIKELY TO BE
PHENOMENAL OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
AT 0600 UTC, NALIYA(42631) REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 994.2 HPA,
PRESSURE FALL DURING PAST 24 HOURS (P24) OF -3.7 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED (MSW) OF 140°/14KT. DWARKA (42731) REPORTED MSLP OF 992.5 HPA, P24 OF
-0.5 HPA AND MSW OF 180°/18KT. BHUJ (42634) REPORTED MSLP OF 997.2 HPA, P24 OF -3.6
HPA AND MSW OF 140°/13KT. OKHA (42730) REPORTED MSLP OF 994.0 HPA, P24 OF -5.0 HPA
AND MSW OF 160°/15KT. KARACHI (41780) REPORTED MSLP OF 997.5 HPA, P24 OF -1.1 HPA
AND MSW OF 50°/16KT.

STORM SURGE GUIDANCE:

STROM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 2-3 METER ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS LIKELY
TO INUNDATE LOW LYING AREAS OF KACHCHH, DEVBHUMI DWARKA, PORBANDAR,
JAMNAGAR AND MORBI DISTRICTS OF SUARASHTRA & KUTCH DURING THE TIME OF
LANDFALL.

STROM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 1-2 METER ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS LIKELY
TO INUNDATE LOW LYING AREAS OF COASTAL PAKISTAN NEAR LANDFALL POINT DURING
THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 29-30°C OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS 60-70KJ/CM2 AND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE GRADUALLY
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMING 30-40 KJ/CM2 OFF SAURASHTRA & KUTCH
COASTS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED COLD AIR
INCURSION INTO THE CORE OF SYSTEM. THE GRADIENT WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
DURING PAST 24 HOURS, RADIUS OF GRADIENT WIND HAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AT 300 HPA HAS DECREASED. FURTHER, AS THE SYSTEM
MOVED VERY SLOWLY DURING PAST 12 HOURS, THE SURFACE AIR NEAR THE CORE
COOLED DOWN, DUE TO UPWELLING IN THE SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM
CENTRE. ALL THESE FEATURES ARE INDICATING VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG ITS PATH.

THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY HAS DECREASED AND IS AROUND 250X10-6S-1 TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SAME AND IS ABOUT 30X10-5S-1 TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND UPPER LEVEL SAME AND IS ABOUT 20X10-
5
S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY
DECREASED AND IS MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. THE
RIDGE RUNS ALONG 21.5°N. THE DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS, INDICATE A WESTERLY
TROUGH ALONG 65.0E TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING TO
THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE WESTERLY TROUGH.

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 AS THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH COAST, IT IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE LOWER OCEAN
THERMAL ENERGY (40-50 KJ/CM2) AND DECREASE IN MIDDLE LEVEL HUMIDITY DUE TO DRY
COLD AIR INTRUSION.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, TC BIPARJOY IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE

NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS SAURASHTRA & KUTCH AND ADJOINING PAKISTAN
COASTS BETWEEN MANDVI (GUJARAT) AND KARACHI (PAKISTAN) NEAR JAKHAU PORT
(GUJARAT) AROUND 1200 UTC OF 15TH JUNE AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 115-125 KMPH GUSTING TO 140 KMPH.

M. SHARMA
SCIENTIST D
RSMC NEW DELHI

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 Very Severe Cyclonic
Storm “Biparjoy”
(22.8°N/67.3°E)

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 Radar Imagery of Doppler Weather Radar at Bhuj

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 OBSERVED AND FORECAST TRACK ALONGWITH CONE OF
UNCERTAINITY OF VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “BIPARJOY”
OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA BASED ON 0600 UTC (1130 IST) OF
15TH JUNE 2023.

Forecast DISTANCE(KM) AND DIRECTION FROM STATIONS

Date and Time NALIYA JAKHAU PORT DWARKA KARACHI AIRPORT PORBANDAR
16.06.23/0600 210, NE 230, NE 280, NNE 310, E 340, N

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
 OBSERVED AND FORECAST TRACK ALONGWITH QUADRANT WIND
DISTRIBUTION OF VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “BIPARJOY” OVER
NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA BASED ON 0600 UTC (1130 IST) OF 15TH
JUNE 2023.

Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
Cloud distribution: (a) Isolated: <25%, Scattered:25-50%, Broken: 51-75%, Solid:>75%, Convection Intensity: (a) Weak: Cloud Top
Temperature (CTT) >-25°C, (b) Moderate: CTT: - 25°C to -40°C, (c) Intense: CTT: - 41°C to -70°C and (d) Very Intense: : Less than -70°C
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-33%, , MODERATE: 34-66% AND HIGH: 67-100%
This is a guidance Bulletin for WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries. Visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins