PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Method)
PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Method)
PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Method)
Critical path
Critical activities
Project Management with
Certain Time Estimates
Summary of steps:
Determine activities that need to be accomplished
Determine precedence relationships and
completion times
Construct network diagram
Determine the critical path
Determine early start and late start schedules
Project Management: Scheduling Projects
with Certain Time Estimates
4
Calculation of the Critical Path
Network approach helps calculate project duration
A path is a sequence of activities that begins at the start of the project and goes to the end of the project
1,2,3,5,6,7,8
1,2,4,6,7,8
The critical path is the path that takes the longest to complete
and thus determines the minimum duration of the project
3 5
1 2 6 7 8
4 5
Calculation of the Critical Path
6
Calculation of the Critical Path
Critical Path
The path that
takes the
longest to
complete
2 weeks 3 weeks
1 2 4 weeks
6 7 8
4 7
Calculation of the Critical Path
Critical Path
The path that
takes the
longest to
complete
2 weeks 3 weeks
1 2 4 weeks
6 7 8
4 C.P. = 40 weeks 8
Calculation of the Critical Path
It is possible for multiple
Critical Paths to exist
New information suggests that Activity
4 will take 5 weeks instead of 4
5
X
2 weeks 3 weeks
1 2 4 weeks
6 7 8
4 9
Calculation of the Critical Path
It is possible for
multiple Critical
Paths to exist 5
New information X
suggests that Activity 4
will take 5 weeks
instead of 4
2 weeks 3 weeks
1 2 5 weeks
6 7 8
4 C.P. = 40 weeks10
Calculation of the Critical Path
Critical Path may also shift if non-
critical activity is lengthened or Critical
Path activity is shortened
Another update indicates it will actually take 6
weeks for Activity 4
6
X
2 weeks 3 weeks
1 2 4 weeks
6 7 8
4 11
Calculation of the Critical Path
Critical Path may also shift if non-
critical activity is lengthened or Critical
Path activity is shortened
Another update indicates it will actually take 6
weeks for Activity 4
6
X
2 weeks 3 weeks
1 2 6 weeks
6 7 8
4 C.P. = 41 weeks12
Determining Slack
Slack - The amount of time an activity on a non-critical path
can be delayed without affecting the duration of the project
(i.e., without putting it on the critical path)
Uses four calculated values
Early start - Earliest an activity can start (based on prerequisites)
Early finish - Earliest it can finish (based on prerequisites & duration)
Late start - Latest an activity can start and not delay the project
Late finish - Latest an activity can finish and not delay the project
13
Calculating Early Start (ES) and
Early Finish (EF)
Move from left to right in
network
ES for 1st activity usually
zero
EF equals ES plus activity
duration
ES is latest of the EF times
of an activitys predecessors
FORWARD PASS
BACKWARD PASS
Activities that have zero slack are, by definition, on the critical path
16
Project Scheduling with
Uncertain Time Estimates
Summary of steps:
Determine activities that need to be accomplished
Determine precedence relationships and completion
times
Construct network diagram
Determine the critical path
Determine early start and late start schedules
Calculate the variances for the activity times
Calculate the probability of completing by the desired
due date
17
Project Scheduling with Time Uncertainty
Step 1 - Calculate Critical Path using Te
Take three time estimates
Optimistic - What is the (realistic) fastest we can get an activity done?
Pessimistic - What is the (realistic) worst case scenario for delay?
Most likely - What is our most likely estimate?
18
Project Scheduling with Time
Uncertainty
Calculate the expected time for the activity
o 4m p
Te
6
Where:
Te = Expected Time
o = Optimistic estimate
m = Most likely estimate
p = Worst-case (pessimistic) estimate
19
Project Scheduling with Time Uncertainty
Estimates
Activity # Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
1 3 4 5
2 8 10 12
3 1 2 4
3 4(4) 5
Activity #1 Te 4.00 weeks
6
8 4(10) 12
Activity #2 Te 10.00 weeks
6
1 4(2) 4
Activity #3 Te 2.17 weeks
6 20
Based on estimates:
1 2 4.17 weeks
6 7 8
4
C.P. = 40.68 weeks
21
Using Variation in Time Estimates to Assess
Duration Probabilities
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Using Variation in Time Estimates to Assess
Duration Probabilities
Estimates
Activity # Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
1 3 4 5
2 8 10 12
3 1 2 4
2
53
Activity #1
2
0.11 weeks
6
2
12 8
Activity #2
2
0.44 weeks
6
2
4 1
Activity #3
2
0.25 weeks
6 23
Using Variation in Time Estimates to Assess
Duration Probabilities
D Te
Z
Where:
Z = Number of standard deviations D is from Te
Te = Expected Time
D = Activity duration I am thinking about
25
Using Variation in Time Estimates
to Assess Duration Probabilities
26
Using Variation in Time Estimates
to Assess Duration Probabilities
What is the probability
of finishing in 39 weeks
?
1 2 4.17 weeks
6 7 8
4
27
Using Variation in Time Estimates
to Assess Duration Probabilities Exhibit 8.22: Expected Values and Variances of Time Estimates
1 2 4.17 weeks
6 7 8
4
28
Using Variation in Time Estimates to
Assess Duration Probabilities
D Te Where:
39 40.68
Z 1.05
1. 6
So, I look up the cumulative probability [G(z)] of the activity being completed
before -1.05 standard deviations from the most likely estimate
and find out I have a 85.314% chance of finishing within 39 weeks!!
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