Uncertainty Reasoning

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FUZZY LOGIC
 Non-monotonic Logic
• Traditional logic is monotonic
– The set of legal conclusions grows monotonically with the set of
facts appearing in our initial database
• When humans reason, we use defeasible logic
– Almost every conclusion we draw is subject to reversal
– If we find contradicting information later, we’ll want to retract
earlier inferences
• Nonmonotonic logic, or defeasible reasoning, allows a
statement to be retracted
• Solution: Truth Maintenance
– Keep explicit information about which facts/inferences support
other inferences
– If the foundation disappears, so must the conclusion
 Uncertainty
• On the other hand, the problem might not be in the
fact that T/F values can change over time but rather
that we are not certain of the T/F value
• Agents almost never have access to the whole truth
about their environment
• Agents must act in the presence of uncertainty
– Some information ascertained from facts
– Some information inferred from facts and knowledge about
environment
– Some information based on assumptions made from
experience
 Environment Properties
• Fully observable vs. partially observable
• Deterministic vs. stochastic / strategic
• Episodic vs. sequential
• Static vs. dynamic
• Discrete vs. continuous
• Single agent vs. multiagent
Uncertainty Arises Because of Several Factors

• Incompleteness
– Many rules are incomplete because too many
conditions to be explicitly enumerated
– Many rules incomplete because some conditions
are unknown
• Incorrectness
Where Do Probabilities Come From?
• Frequency
• Subjective judgement
• Consider the probability that the sun will still
exist tomorrow.
• There are several ways to compute this
• Choice of experiment is known as the
reference class problem
 Acting Under Uncertainty
• Agents must still act even if world not certain
• If not sure which of two squares have a pit and must enter one of them to
reach the gold, the agent will take a chance
• If can only act with certainty, most of the time will not act. Consider example
that agent wants to drive someone to the airport to catch a flight, and is
considering plan A90 that involves leaving home 60 minutes before the flight
departs and driving at a reasonable speed. Even though the Pullman airport is
only 5 miles away, the agent will not be able to reach a definite conclusion - it
will be more like “Plan A90 will get us to the airport in time, as long as my car
doesn't break down or run out of gas, and I don't get into an accident, and
there are no accidents on the Moscow-Pullman highway, and the plane doesn't
leave early, and there's no thunderstorms in the area, …”
• We may still use this plan if it will improve our situation, given known
information
• The performance measure here includes getting to the airport in time, not
wasting time at the airport, and/or not getting a speeding ticket.
 Limitation of Deterministic Logic
• Pure logic fails for three main reasons:
• Laziness
– Too much work to list complete set of antecedents or
consequents needed to ensure an exceptionless rule, too hard
to use the enormous rules that result
• Theoretical ignorance
– Science has no complete theory for the domain
• Practical ignorance
– Even if we know all the rules, we may be uncertain about a
particular patient because all the necessary tests have not or
cannot be run
 Probability
• Probabilities are numeric values between 0 and 1
(inclusive) that represent ideal certainties (not beliefs) of
statements, given assumptions about the circumstances
in which the statements apply.
• These values can be verified by testing, unlike certainty
values. They apply in highly controlled situations.

#instances of the event

Probability(event) = P(event) =
total #instances
 Example
• For example, if we roll two dice, each showing one of six possible numbers, the
number of total unique rolls is 6*6 = 36. We distinguish the dice in some way (a
first and second or left and right die). Here is a listing of the joint possibilities
for the dice:
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

• The number of rolls which add up to 4 is 3 ((1,3), (2,2), (3,1)), so the probability
of rolling a total of 4 is 3/36 = 1/12.
• This does not mean 8.3% true, but 8.3% chance of it being true.
 Probability Explanation
• P(event) is the probability in the absence of any additional information
• Probability depends on evidence.
• Before looking at dice: P(sum of 4) = 1/12
• After looking at dice: P(sum of 4) = 0 or 1, depending on what we see
• All probability statements must indicate the evidence with respect to
which the probability is being assessed.
• As new evidence is collected, probability calculations are updated.
• Before specific evidence is obtained, we refer to the prior or
unconditional probability of the event with respect to the evidence.
After the evidence is obtained, we refer to the posterior or conditional
probability.
 Probability Distributions
• If we want to know the probability of a variable that can
take on multiple values, we may define a probability
distribution, or a set of probabilities for each possible
variable value.
• TemperatureToday =
{Below50, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90sAndAbove}
• P(TemperatureToday) =
{0.1, 0.1, 0.5, 0.2, 0.05, 0.05}
• Note that the sum of the probabilities for possible
values of any given variable must always sum to 1.
 Joint Probability Distribution
• Because events are rarely isolated from other events, we
may want to define a joint probability distribution, or P(X1,
X2, .., Xn).
• Each Xi is a vector of probabilities for values of variable Xi.
• The joint probability distribution is an
n-dimensional array of combinations of probabilities.
Wet ~Wet
Rain 0.6 0.4
~Rain 0.4 0.6
 Inference by Enumeration
• To determine the probability of one variable (e.g., toothache), sum
the events in the joint probability distribution where it is true:

toothache ~toothache
catch ~catch catch ~catch
cavity .108 .012 .072 .008
~cavity .016 .064 .144 .576

P (toothache) = .108 + .012 + .016 + .064 = 0.2

 Axioms of Probability
• 0 <= P(Event) <= 1
• Disjunction, avb, P(avb) = P(a) + P(b) – P(a^b)

a b
 Axioms of Probability
• Negation, P(~a) = 1 – P(a)

a
 Axioms of Probability
• Conditional probability
– Once evidence is obtained, the agent can use
conditional probabilities, P(a|b)
– P(a|b) = probability of a being true given that we
know b is true
– The equation P(a|b) =
holds whenever P(b)>0
• An agent who bets according to probabilities
that violate these axioms can be forced to bet so
as to lose money regardless of outcome
[deFinetti, 1931]
 Axioms of Probability
• Conjunction
– Product rule
– P(a^b) = P(a)*P(b|a)
– P(a^b) = P(b)*P(a|b)

a b

• In order words, the only way a and b can both be true is if a is true
and we know b is true given a is true (thus b is also true)
 Axioms of Probability
• If a and b are independent events (the truth of
a has no effect on the truth of b),
then P(a^b) = P(a) * P(b).
• “Wet” and “Raining” are not independent
events.
• “Wet” and “Joe made a joke” are pretty close
to independent events.

a b a b
 More Than 2 Variables
• The chain rule is derived by successive
application of the product rule:
• P(X1,..,Xn) = P(X1,..,Xn-1)P(Xn|X1,..,Xn-1)
= P((X1,..,Xn-2)P(Xn-1|X1,..,Xn-2)P(Xn|X1,..,Xn-1)
=…
= P(Xi|X1,..,Xi-1)
X1
X2 X3
 Law of Alternatives
• If we know that exactly one of A1, A2, ..., An are true, then we
know P(B) = P(B|A1)P(A1)
+ P(B|A2)P(A2) + ... + P(B|An)P(An) and
P(B|X) = P(B|A1,X) + ... + P(B|An,X)P(An,X)
• Example
– P(Sunday) = P(Monday) =.. = P(Saturday) = 1/7
– P(FootballToday) =
P(FootballToday|Sunday)P(Sunday) +
P(FootballToday|Monday)P(Monday) +
.. +
P(FootballToday|Saturday)P(Saturday)
= 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 1/7*1 = 1/7
 Axioms of Probability
• Bayes' Rule
– Given a hypothesis (H) and evidence (E), and given that P(E) = 0, what is
P(H|E)?
• Many times rules and information are uncertain, yet we still
want to say something about the consequent; namely, the
degree to which it can be believed. A British cleric and
mathematician, Thomas Bayes, suggested an approach.
• Recall the two forms of the product rule:
– P(ab) = P(a) * P(b|a)
– P(ab) = P(b) * P(a|b)
• If we equate the two right-hand sides and divide by P(a), we get
 Example
• Bayes' rule is useful when we have three of the four parts of the
equation.
• In this example, a doctor knows that meningitis causes a stiff neck in 50%
of such cases. The prior probability of having meningitis is 1/50,000 and
the prior probability of any patient having a stiff neck is 1/20.
• What is the probability that a patient has meningitis if they have a stiff
neck?
• H = "Patient has meningitis“
• E = "Patient has stiff neck"

P(E|H) * P(H)
P(H|E) =
P(E)

P(H|E) = (0.5*.00002) / .05 = .0002

 Example
• I have three identical boxes labeled H1, H2, and H3
I place 1 black bead and 3 white beads into H1
I place 2 black beads and 2 white beads into H2
I place 4 black beads and no white beads into H3
• I draw a box at random, and randomly remove a bead from that
box. Given the color of the bead, what can I deduce as to which
box I drew?
• If I replace the bead, then redraw another bead at random from
the same box, how well can I predict its color before drawing it?

H1 H2 H3
 Answer
• Observation: I draw a white bead.
• P(H1|W) = P(H1)P(W|H1) / P(W)
= (1/3 * 3/4) / 5/12 = 3/12 * 12/5 = 36/60 = 3/5
• P(H2|W) = P(H2)P(W|H2) / P(W)
= (1/3 * 1/2) / 5/12 = 1/6 * 12/5 = 12/30 = 2/5
• P(H3|W) = P(H3)P(W|H3) / P(W)
= (1/3 * 0) / 5/12 = 0 * 12/5 = 0
 Example
• If I replace the bead, then redraw another bead
at random from the same box, how well can I
predict its color before drawing it?
• P(H1)=3/5, P(H2) = 2/5, P(H3) = 0
• P(W) = P(W|H1)P(H1) + P(W|H2)P(H2) + P(W|
H3)P(H3)
= 3/4*3/5 + 1/2*2/5 + 0*0 = 9/20 + 4/20 = 13/20

H1 H2 H3
 Example
• We wish to know probability that John has malaria, given that he has a slightly unusual symptom:
a high fever.
• We have 4 kinds of information
a) probability that a person has malaria regardless of symptoms (0.0001)
b) probability that a person has the symptom of fever given that he has malaria (0.75)
c) probability that a person has symptom of fever, given that he does NOT have malaria (0.14)
d) John has high fever
P(E|H) * P(H)
• H = John has malaria P(H|E) =
• E = John has a high fever P(E)
Suppose P(H) = 0.0001, P(E|H) = 0.75, P(E|~H) = 0.14
 Example
• We wish to know probability that John has malaria, given that he has a slightly unusual symptom: a
high fever.
• We have 4 kinds of information
a) probability that a person has malaria regardless of symptoms
b) probability that a person has the symptom of fever given that he has malaria
c) probability that a person has symptom of fever, given that he does NOT have malaria
d) John has high fever
• H = John has malaria P(E|H) * P(H)
P(H|E) =
• E = John has a high fever P(E)
Suppose P(H) = 0.0001, P(E|H) = 0.75, P(E|~H) = 0.14
Then P(E) = 0.75 * 0.0001 + 0.14 * 0.9999 = 0.14006
and P(H|E) = (0.75 * 0.0001) / 0.14006 = 0.0005354

On the other hand, if John did not have a fever, his probability of having malaria would be

P(~E|H) * P(H) (1-0.75)(0.0001)

P(H|~E) = = = 0.000029
P(~E) (1-0.14006)
Which is much smaller.
 Making Decision Under Uncertainty

• Consider the following plans for getting to the airport:

– P(A25 gets me there on time | ...) = 0.04
– P(A90 gets me there on time | ...) = 0.70
– P(A120 gets me there on time | ...) = 0.95
– P(A1440 gets me there on time | ...) = 0.9999
• Which action should I choose?
• Depends on my preferences for missing the flight vs. time
spent waiting, etc.
– Utility theory is used to represent and infer preferences
– Decision theory is a combination of probability theory and utility
theory
 Belief Networks
• A belief network (Bayes net) represents the dependence
between variables.
• Components of a belief network graph:
• Nodes
– These represent variables
• Links
– X points to Y if X has a direct influence on Y
• Conditional probability tables
– Each node has a CPT that quantifies the effects the parents have on
the node
• The graph has no directed cycles
 Example
• I'm at work, neighbor John calls to say my alarm is ringing,
but neighbor Mary doesn't call. Sometimes it's set off by
minor earthquakes. Is there a burglar?
• Variables: Burglar, Earthquake, Alarm, JohnCalls, MaryCalls
Network topology reflects “causal” knowledge:
 Example
• Suppose you are going home, and you want to know the probability
that the lights are on given the dog is barking and the dog does not
have a bowel problem. If the family is out, often the lights are on.
The dog is usually in the yard when the family is out and when it has
bowel troubles. If the dog is in the yard, it probably barks.
• Use the variables:
f = family out
l = light on
b = bowel problem
d = dog out
h = hear bark
• There should be a graph with five nodes.
 Example
• We know
– l is directly influenced by f and is independent of b,d,h given f
Add link from f to l
– d is directly influenced by f and b, independent of l and h
Add link from f to d and b to d
– h is directly influenced by d, independent of f, l, b, and d
Add link from d to h

f b Once we specify the topology (or learn it from data),

we need to specify the conditional probability table
for each node
l d
p(f) = 0.15, 0.85 p(b) = 0.01, 0.99
p(l|f) = 0.60, 0.40 p(l|-f) = 0.05, 0.95
h p(d|f,b) = 0.99, 0.01 p(d|f,-b) = 0.90, 0.10
p(d|-f,b) = 0.97, 0.03 p(d|-f,-b) = 0.30, 0.70
p(h|d) = 0.70, 0.30 p(h|-d) = 0.01, 0.99
 Fuzzy Logic
• “Precision carries a cost”
– Boolean logic relies on sharp distinctions
– 6’ is tall, 5’ 11 ½” is not tall
• The tolerance for imprecision feeds human
capabilities
– Example, drive in city traffic
• Fuzzy logic is NOT logic that is fuzzy
– Logic that is used to describe fuzziness
 Fuzzy Logic
• Fuzzy Logic is a multi-valued logic that allows intermediate values to
be defined between conventional evaluations like yes/no, true/false,
black/white, etc.
• Fuzzy Logic was initiated in 1965 by Lotfi A. Zadeh, professor of
computer science at the University of California in Berkeley.
• The concept of fuzzy sets is associated with the term ``graded
membership''.
• This has been used as a model for inexact, vague statements about the
elements of an ordinary set.
• Fuzzy logic prevalent in products:
– Washing machines
– Video cameras
– Razors
– Dishwasher
– Subway systems
 Fuzzy Sets
• In a fuzzy set the elements have a DEGREE of
existence.
• Some typically fuzzy sets are large numbers,
tall men, young children, approximately equal
to 10, mountains, etc.
Fuzzy Sets
 Ordinary Sets

1 If x in A
fA(x) =
0 If x not in A
 A Fuzzy Set has Fuzzy Boundaries
• A fuzzy set A of universe X is defined by
function fA(x) called the membership function
of set A

fA(x) = {0, 1}, where fA(x) = 1 if x is totally in A;

fA(x) = 0 if x is not in A;
0 < fA(x) < 1 if x is partly in A.
• fA(x) = i, where 0 <= i <= 1
• If fA(x) > fA(y), then x is “more in” the set than y
• If fA(x) = 1, then x in A
• If fA(x) = 0, then x isn’t in A
• If fA(x) = , where 0 < < 1, then x A
• Degree of membership sometimes determined as a function (degree of tall calculated as a function of
height)
Fuzzy Sets
 Fuzzy Set Representation

A man who is 184 cm tall is a member

of the average men set with a degree
of membership of 0.1

At the same time, he is also a

member of the tall men set with a
degree of 0.4.
 Fuzzy Set Representation
• Typical functions that can be used to represent a
fuzzy set are
– Sigmoid
– Gaussian
– Linear fit (preferred because low computation cost)
 Linguistic Variables and Hedges
• In fuzzy expert systems, linguistic variables are used in fuzzy rules. For
example:
IF wind is strong
THEN sailing is good

IF project_duration is long
THEN completion_risk is high

IF speed is slow
THEN stopping_distance is short
 Linguistic Variables and Hedges
• The range of possible values of a linguistic variable
represents the universe of discourse of that variable.
– Example, speed
– University of discourse might have range 0 .. 220 mph
– Fuzzy subsets might be very slow, slow, medium, fast, and
very fast.

• Hedges
– Modify the shape of fuzzy sets
– Adverbs such as very, somewhat, quite, more or less and
slightly.
Linguistic Variables and Hedges
 Fuzzy Set Relations
• One set A is a subset of set B if for every x, fA(x) <= fB(x)
Sets A and B are equal if for every element x, fA(x) = fB(x).
• OR / Union
– AUB is the smallest fuzzy subset of X containing both A and B, and is
defined by fA B= max(fA(x),fB(x))
U

• AND / Intersection
– The intersection A B is the largest fuzzy subset of X contained in
both A and B, and is defined by fA B(x) = min(fA(x), fB(x))
• NOT: truth(~x) = 1.0 - truth(x)
• IMPLICATION: A -> B = ~A v B, so truth(A-
>B) = max(1.0 – fA(x), fB(x))
 Examples
• Fuzzy Logic Washing Machine
• Fuzzy Logic Rice Cooker
• Fuzzy Logic Barcode Scanner
• Fuzzy Logic Blender
• Fuzzy Logic Shampoo
• Fuzzy Logic Monitor
Supplementary
(Optional)
 Game Theory
• Decision problems in which utility of an action depends on environment AND on actions of
other agents
• Assume agents make decisions simultaneously without knowledge of decisions of other
agents
• Trading Agent Competition
 Prisoner’s Dilemma
• Problem drawn from political science and game theory

• Two players, each with a choice of cooperating with the other or defecting
• Each receives payoff according to payoff matrix for their decision
• When both cooperate, both rewarded equal, intermediate payoff (reward, R)
• When one player defects, he/she receives highest payoff (temptation, T)
and other gets poor payoff (sucker, S)
• When both player defect they receive intermediate penalty P
• Make problem more interesting by repeating with same players, use history to guide future
decisions (iterated prisoner's dilemma)
• Some strategies:
• Tit For Tat:
– Cooperate on first move then do whatever opponent did on previous move, performed best in
tournament
• Golden Rule:
– Always cooperate
• Iron Rule:
– Always defect
 Examples
• In the first example, the other player chooses
randomly
• Prisoner's Dilemma Applet
• Visualize Prisoner's Dilemma