India Meteorological Department

Earth System Science Organisation

(Ministry of Earth Sciences)
BULLETIN NO.: 36 (BOB/04/2019)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1520 HOURS IST DATED: 09.11.2019
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (FAX NO. 24643965/24699216/24623220)
TO: CONTROL ROOM, NDM, MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS (FAX.NO. 23092398/23093750)
CONTROL ROOM NDMA (FAX.NO. 26701729)
JS NDMA (FAX.NO. 26701864)
CABINET SECRETARIAT (FAX.NO.23012284, 23018638)
PS TO HON’BLE MINISTER FOR S & T AND EARTH SCIENCES (FAX NO.23316745)
SECRETARY, MOES, (FAX NO. 24629777)
H.Q. (INTEGRATED DEFENCE STAFF AND CDS) (FAX NO. 23005137/23005147)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, DOORDARSHAN (23385843)
DIRECTOR GENERAL, AIR (23421101, 23421105, 23421219)
PIB MOES (FAX NO. 23389042)
UNI (FAX NO. 23355841)
D.G. NATIONAL DISASTER RESPONSE FORCE (NDRF) (FAX NO. 26105912, 2436 3260)
DIRECTOR, PUNCTUALITY, INDIAN RAILWAYS (FAX NO. 23388503)
CHIEF SECRETARY, TAMILNADU (FAX NO.044-25672304)
CHIEF SECRETARY, GOVT. OF ODISHA (FAX NO. 0674-2536660)
CHIEF SECRETARY, WEST BENGAL (FAX NO. 033-22144328)
CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDHRA PRADESH (FAX NO. 0863-2441029)
CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS (FAX NO. 03192- 232656)

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’ (Pronounced as Bul bul) over northwest Bay of
Bengal: CYCLONE WARNING AND POST-LANDFALL OUTLOOK FOR WEST BENGAL
COAST: RED MESSAGE

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’ (Pronounced as Bul bul) over northwest Bay of Bengal
continued to move nearly northwards with a speed of 09 kmph during past 06 hours, and lay centred
at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 9th November 2019, over northwest Bay of Bengal, near Lat.20.9°N and
Long. 87.9°E about 140 km east-northeast of Paradip (Odisha), 85 km south of Sagar Islands (West
Bengal), 120 km east of Chandbali, 120 km south-southeast Balasore, 90 km south-southeast of
Digha, 185 km south-southwest of Kolkata and 270 km west-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
It is very likely to weaken gradually, move northeastwards and cross West Bengal - Bangladesh
Coasts between Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and Khepupara (Bangladesh), across Sunderban delta
by late evening/ night (between 2000 & 2300 hours IST) of 9th November as a Severe Cyclonic Storm
with maximum sustained wind speed of 110-120 Kmph gusting to 135 Kmph.

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’ is being tracked by the Doppler Weather Radars at
Gopalpur, Paradip and Kolkata in addition to other observing platforms.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time Position Maximum sustained Category of cyclonic

(IST) Lat. Long. surface wind speed disturbance
(0N) (0E) (kmph)
09.11.19/1430 20.9 87.9 125-135 gusting to 150 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
09.11.19/1730 21.2 88.1 120-130 gusting to 145 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
09.11.19/2330 21.8 88.7 110-120 gusting to 135 Severe Cyclonic Storm
10.11.19/0530 22.4 89.3 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
10.11.19/1130 22.9 90.0 50-60 gusting to 70 Cyclonic Storm
10.11.19/2330 23.2 91.2 30-40 gusting to 50 Depression

Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%
Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6 – 204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.
 Warnings:
(i) Rainfall:
Odisha:
 Light to moderate rainfall at most places very likely over north coastal districts of Odisha
with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Balasore, and Bhadrak, districts today, the 9th
November 2019.

West Bengal:

 Light to moderate rainfall at most places very likely over coastal districts of West Bengal
with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 20 cm in 24
hours) at isolated places over North & South 24 Parganas, East Medinipur, and isolated
heavy to very heavy rainfall over West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly today, the 9th
November 2019.
 Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over
North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya till 10th November morning.
North-eastern States:
 Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls very likely over Mizoram
and Tripura on today, the 9th November and over South Assam& Meghalaya, Tripura, and
Mizoram on 10th November.
(ii) Wind warning
 Bay of Bengal: Gale wind speed reaching 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph is prevailing over
northwest Bay of Bengal around the system centre. It is very likely to decrease gradually and
become 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph by evening of the today, 9th and decrease gradually
thereafter.
 Odisha coast: Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is likely to continue
along & off districts Balasore and Bhadrak districts for next 6 hours. Kendrapara and
Jagatsinghpur, districts are likely to experience squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting
to 60 kmph during next 09 hours.
 West Bengal coast: Squally wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is prevailing
along and off West Bengal coast. It will gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching
110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph from the afternoon of today, the 9th November for next 09
hours along & off West& East Medinipur, North & South 24 Parganas districts. Squally wind
speed reaching 50-60 Kmph gusting to 70 Kmph also likely over adjoining districts of West
Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly during the same period.
(iii) Sea condition
 Sea condition will be high to very high till tonight along & off north Odisha coast and along &
off West Bengal & Bangladesh coasts till 10th November morning.
 Sea condition is phenomenal over northwest Bay of Bengal. It is very likely to continue to be
phenomenal till today evening and improve gradually thereafter. Sea condition will be high to
very high over northeast Bay of Bengal till today evening and become high to very rough for
subsequent 12 hours.
(iv) Storm Surge
 Storm surge of about 1.0 to 2.0 meter height above Astronomical tide is very likely to inundate
low lying areas of South and North 24 Parganas and 0.5-1.0 meter height above Astronomical
tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of east Medinipur during the time of landfall. The
maximum extent of inundation is likely to be around 2 km over South and North 24 Parganas.

(v) Fishermen Warning

 Total suspension of fishing operations over Odisha-West Bengal coasts till morning of 10th
November.

Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%
Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6 – 204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.
  Fishermen are advised not to venture into Sea along & off Odisha – West Bengal coasts till
10th morning.
 Fishermen are advised not to venture into westcentral Bay of Bengal during next 12 hours and
over north Bay of Bengal for next 24 hours.
(vi) Damage Expected over coastal districts of north Odisha:
 Damage to thatched houses/ huts. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
 Damage to embankments/ salt pans.
 Partial damage to power and communication lines.
 Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
 Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of trees. Damage to banana and papaya trees. Large
dead limbs blown from trees.
 Major damage to coastal crops
Damage Expected over coastal districts of West Bengal:
 Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may
fly.
 Minor damage to power and communication lines.
 Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
 Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and
papaya trees. Dead limbs blown from trees.
 Major damage to coastal crops.
 Damage to embankments/ salt pans.
 Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
(vii) Action suggested for coastal districts of north Odisha
 Total suspension of fishing operations till 10th morning.
 People in affected areas to remain indoors.
 Movement in motor boats unsafe.
 Beach movement to be restricted.

Action suggested for coastal districts of West Bengal

 Total suspension of fishing operations till 10th morning.
 Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas
of South and North 24 Parganas. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
 Rail and Road traffic to be regulated.
 Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.
 Beach movement to be restricted.

Post-Landfall Outlook
 After the landfall over Sunderban delta by night of today, the 9th November as a Severe
Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph, it is very likely to
move east-northeastwards across Bangladesh and weaken gradually. As such, the system is
expected to maintain Cyclone intensity till 10th morning over Bangladesh and adjoining areas of
Gangetic West Bengal North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya district.

 Under its influence, light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places
very likely over North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya districts of West Bengal till the
morning of 10th November 2019.

 Gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph is likely over North and South 24
Parganas and Nadiya districts of West Bengal during the night of today, the 9th November for

Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%
Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6 – 204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.
 the next 06 hours and decrease gradually thereafter becoming squally wind speed reaching 50-
60 Kmph gusting to 70 Kmph over these districts till 10th morning.
 Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 Kmph gusting to 60 Kmph is likely over adjoining districts of
West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly during the same period.
 Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph is likely over Kolkata during the
night of today, 9th November 2019.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 09th November, 2019.

(Neetha K. Gopal )
Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi

Copy to: ACWC Chennai / ACWC Kolkata/ CWC Visakhapatnam/ CWC Bhubaneswar/ M.O. Port Blair.

Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%
Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6 – 204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.
 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
‘Bulbul’ (20.9°N/ 87.9° E)

NWB=> NorthWest Bay of Bengal

Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%
Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6 – 204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.
 Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%
Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6 – 204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.
 Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%
Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6 – 204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more.