probability [195 marks]

Mr Burke teaches a mathematics class with 15 students. In this class there are 6
female students and 9 male students.
Each day Mr Burke randomly chooses one student to answer a homework
question.

1a. Find the probability that on any given day Mr Burke chooses a female [1 mark]
student to answer a question.

In the first month, Mr Burke will teach his class 20 times.

1b. Find the probability he will choose a female student 8 times. [2 marks]

1c. Find the probability he will choose a male student at most 9 times. [3 marks]

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 Sungwon plays a game where she rolls a fair 6-sided die and spins a fair spinner
with 4 equal sectors. During each turn in the game, the die is rolled once and the
spinner is spun once. The score for each turn is the sum of the two results. For
example, 1 on the die and 2 on the spinner would receive a score of 3.

The following diagram represents the sample space.

2a. Find the probability that Sungwon’s score on her first turn is greater than[2 marks]
4.

Sungwon takes a second turn.

2b. Find the probability that Sungwon scores greater than 4 on both of her [2 marks]
first two turns.

2c. Sungwon will play the game for 11 turns. [2 marks]

Find the expected number of times the score on a turn is greater than 4.
 Casanova restaurant offers a set menu where a customer chooses one of the
following meals: pasta, fish or shrimp.
The manager surveyed 150 customers and recorded the customer’s age and
chosen meal. The data is shown in the following table.

A χ 2 test was performed at the 10% significance level. The critical value for this
test is 4. 605.

3a. State H0 , the null hypothesis for this test. [1 mark]

3b. Write down the number of degrees of freedom. [1 mark]

3c. Show that the expected number of children who chose shrimp is 31, [2 marks]
correct to two significant figures.

Write down

3d. the χ2 statistic. [2 marks]

3e. the p-value. [1 mark]

3f. State the conclusion for this test. Give a reason for your answer. [2 marks]

A customer is selected at random.

3g. Calculate the probability that the customer is an adult. [2 marks]

3h. Calculate the probability that the customer is an adult or that the [2 marks]
customer chose shrimp.

3i. Given that the customer is a child, calculate the probability that they [2 marks]
chose pasta or fish.

P ( ) = 0.3
 The following Venn diagram shows the events A and B, where P (A) = 0.3. The
values shown are probabilities.

4a. Find the value of p. [2 marks]

4b. Find the value of q. [2 marks]

4c. Find P (A′ ∪ B). [2 marks]

3
5a. Place the numbers 2π, − 5, 3−1 and 2 2 in the correct position on the [4 marks]
Venn diagram.
5b. In the table indicate which two of the given statements are true by [2 marks]
placing a tick (✔) in the right hand column.

Consider the following sets:

The universal set U consists of all positive integers less than 15;
A is the set of all numbers which are multiples of 3;
B is the set of all even numbers.

6a. Write down the elements that belong to A ∩ B. [3 marks]

6b. Write down the elements that belong to A ∩ B′ . [2 marks]

6c. Write down n (A ∩ B′ ). [1 mark]

 A school café sells three flavours of smoothies: mango (M ), kiwi fruit (K) and
banana (B).
85 students were surveyed about which of these three flavours they like.
35 students liked mango, 37 liked banana, and 26 liked kiwi fruit
2 liked all three flavours
20 liked both mango and banana
14 liked mango and kiwi fruit
3 liked banana and kiwi fruit

7a. Using the given information, complete the following Venn diagram. [2 marks]

7b. Find the number of surveyed students who did not like any of the three [2 marks]
flavours.

7c. A student is chosen at random from the surveyed students. [2 marks]

Find the probability that this student likes kiwi fruit smoothies given that they like
mango smoothies.

There are three fair six-sided dice. Each die has two green faces, two yellow faces
and two red faces.
All three dice are rolled.

8a. Find the probability of rolling exactly one red face. [2 marks]

8b. Find the probability of rolling two or more red faces. [3 marks]
 Ted plays a game using these dice. The rules are:
Having a turn means to roll all three dice.
He wins $10 for each green face rolled and adds this to his winnings.
After a turn Ted can either:
end the game (and keep his winnings), or
have another turn (and try to increase his winnings).
If two or more red faces are rolled in a turn, all winnings are lost and the game
ends.

8c. Show that, after a turn, the probability that Ted adds exactly $10 to his [5 marks]
winnings is 13 .

The random variable D ($) represents how much is added to his winnings after a
turn.
The following table shows the distribution for D, where $w represents his
winnings in the game so far.

8d. Write down the value of x. [1 mark]

8e. Hence, find the value of y. [2 marks]

8f. Ted will always have another turn if he expects an increase to his [3 marks]
winnings.
Find the least value of w for which Ted should end the game instead of having
another turn.
 Iqbal attempts three practice papers in mathematics. The probability that he
passes the first paper is 0.6. Whenever he gains a pass in a paper, his confidence
increases so that the probability of him passing the next paper increases by 0.1.
Whenever he fails a paper the probability of him passing the next paper is 0.6.

9a. Complete the given probability tree diagram for Iqbal’s three attempts, [3 marks]
labelling each branch with the correct probability.

9b. Calculate the probability that Iqbal passes at least two of the papers he [2 marks]
attempts.

9c. Find the probability that Iqbal passes his third paper, given that he [3 marks]
passed only one previous paper.

A bag contains n marbles, two of which are blue. Hayley plays a game in which
she randomly draws marbles out of the bag, one after another, without
replacement. The game ends when Hayley draws a blue marble.

10a. Find the probability, in terms of n, that the game will end on her first [1 mark]
draw.

10b. Find the probability, in terms of n, that the game will end on her second[3 marks]
draw.

Let n = 5. Find the probability that the game will end on her

10c. third draw. [2 marks]

10d. fourth draw. [2 marks]

10e. Hayley plays the game when n = 5. She pays $20 to play and can earn [7 marks]
money back depending on the number of draws it takes to obtain a
blue marble. She earns no money back if she obtains a blue marble on her first
draw. Let M be the amount of money that she earns back playing the game. This
information is shown in the following table.

Find the value of k so that this is a fair game.

160 students attend a dual language school in which the students are taught only
in Spanish or taught only in English.
A survey was conducted in order to analyse the number of students studying
Biology or Mathematics. The results are shown in the Venn diagram.
Set S represents those students who are taught in Spanish.
Set B represents those students who study Biology.
Set M represents those students who study Mathematics.

11a. Find the number of students in the school that are taught in Spanish. [2 marks]

11b. Find the number of students in the school that study Mathematics in [2 marks]
English.

11c. Find the number of students in the school that study both Biology and [2 marks]
Mathematics.

( ∩( ∪ ))
11d. Write down n (S ∩ (M ∪ B)). [1 mark]

11e. Write down n (B ∩ M ∩ S ′ ). [1 mark]

A student from the school is chosen at random.

11f. Find the probability that this student studies Mathematics. [2 marks]

11g. Find the probability that this student studies neither Biology nor [2 marks]
Mathematics.

11h. Find the probability that this student is taught in Spanish, given that [2 marks]
the student studies Biology.
 A group of 60 sports enthusiasts visited the PyeongChang 2018 Winter Olympic
games to watch a variety of sporting events.
The most popular sports were snowboarding (S), figure skating (F) and ice hockey
(H).
For this group of 60 people:
4 did not watch any of the most popular sports,
x watched all three of the most popular sports,
9 watched snowboarding only,
11 watched figure skating only,
15 watched ice hockey only,
7 watched snowboarding and figure skating,
13 watched figure skating and ice hockey,
11 watched snowboarding and ice hockey.

12a. Complete the Venn diagram using the given information. [3 marks]

12b. Find the value of x. [2 marks]

12c. Write down the value of n ((F ∪ H) ∩ S ′ ). [1 mark]

3
 Pablo drives to work. The probability that he leaves home before 07:00 is 34 .

If he leaves home before 07:00 the probability he will be late for work is 18 .

If he leaves home at 07:00 or later the probability he will be late for work is 58 .

13a. Copy and complete the following tree diagram. [3 marks]

13b. Find the probability that Pablo leaves home before 07:00 and is late for [2 marks]
work.

13c. Find the probability that Pablo is late for work. [3 marks]

13d. Given that Pablo is late for work, find the probability that he left home [3 marks]
before 07:00.

13e. Two days next week Pablo will drive to work. Find the probability that [3 marks]
he will be late at least once.

Consider the following Venn diagrams.

14a. Write down an expression, in set notation, for the shaded region [1 mark]
represented by Diagram 1.
14b. Write down an expression, in set notation, for the shaded region [1 mark]
represented by Diagram 2.

14c. Write down an expression, in set notation, for the shaded region [2 marks]
represented by Diagram 3.

14d. Shade, on the Venn diagram, the region represented by the set (H ∪ I)′ [1 mark]
.

14e. Shade, on the Venn diagram, the region represented by the set J ∩ K. [1 mark]

Two events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.62 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.18.

15a. Find P(A ∩ B′ ). [2 marks]

15b. Given that P((A ∪ B)′ ) = 0.19, find P(A | B′ ). [4 marks]

 In a company it is found that 25 % of the employees encountered traffic on their
way to work. From those who encountered traffic the probability of being late for
work is 80 %.
From those who did not encounter traffic, the probability of being late for work is
15 %.
The tree diagram illustrates the information.

16a. Write down the value of a. [1 mark]

16b. Write down the value of b. [1 mark]

16c. Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an [2 marks]
employee encountered traffic and was late for work.

16d. Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an employee was late [3 marks]
for work.

16e. Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an [3 marks]
employee encountered traffic given that they were late for work.
 The company investigates the different means of transport used by their
employees in the past year to travel to work. It was found that the three most
common means of transport used to travel to work were public transportation (P ),
car (C ) and bicycle (B ).
The company finds that 20 employees travelled by car, 28 travelled by bicycle
and 19 travelled by public transportation in the last year.
Some of the information is shown in the Venn diagram.

16f. Find the value of x. [1 mark]

16g. Find the value of y. [1 mark]

There are 54 employees in the company.

16h. Find the number of employees who, in the last year, did not travel to [2 marks]
work by car, bicycle or public transportation.

16i. Find n ((C ∪ B) ∩ P ′ ). [2 marks]

A bag contains 5 green balls and 3 white balls. Two balls are selected at random
without replacement.

17a. Complete the following tree diagram. [3 marks]

17b. Find the probability that exactly one of the selected balls is green. [3 marks]

Rosewood College has 120 students. The students can join the sports club (S) and
the music club ( M ).
For a student chosen at random from these 120, the probability that they joined
both clubs is 14 and the probability that they joined the music club is 13 .

There are 20 students that did not join either club.

18a. Complete the Venn diagram for these students. [2 marks]

18b. One of the students who joined the sports club is chosen at random. [2 marks]
Find the probability that this student joined both clubs.

18c. Determine whether the events S and M are independent. [2 marks]

In a group of 20 girls, 13 take history and 8 take economics. Three girls take both
history and economics, as shown in the following Venn diagram. The values p and
q represent numbers of girls.

19a. Find the value of p; [2 marks]

19b. Find the value of q. [2 marks]

19c. A girl is selected at random. Find the probability that she takes [2 marks]
economics but not history.

Dune Canyon High School organizes its school year into three trimesters:
fall/autumn (F ), winter (W ) and spring (S). The school offers a variety of sporting
activities during and outside the school year.
The activities offered by the school are summarized in the following Venn
diagram.

20a. Write down the number of sporting activities offered by the school during[1 mark]
its school year.

20b. Determine whether rock-climbing is offered by the school in the [1 mark]

fall/autumn trimester.

20c. Write down the elements of the set F ∩ W ′; [1 mark]

20d. Write down n(W ∩ S). [1 mark]

20e. Write down, in terms of F , W and S, an expression for the set which [2 marks]
contains only archery, baseball, kayaking and surfing.
 All the children in a summer camp play at least one sport, from a choice of
football (F ) or basketball (B). 15 children play both sports.
The number of children who play only football is double the number of children
who play only basketball.
Let x be the number of children who play only football.

21a. Write down an expression, in terms of x, for the number of children who [1 mark]
play only basketball.

21b. Complete the Venn diagram using the above information. [2 marks]

There are 120 children in the summer camp.

21c. Find the number of children who play only football. [2 marks]

21d. Write down the value of n(F ). [1 mark]

The following table shows a probability distribution for the random variable X,
where E(X) = 1.2 .

22a. Find q. [2 marks]

22b. Find p. [2 marks]

 A bag contains white and blue marbles, with at least three of each colour. Three
marbles are drawn from the bag, without replacement. The number of blue
marbles drawn is given by the random variable X .

22c. Write down the probability of drawing three blue marbles. [1 mark]

22d. Explain why the probability of drawing three white marbles is 1 . [1 mark]
6

22e. The bag contains a total of ten marbles of which w are white. Find w. [3 marks]

A game is played in which three marbles are drawn from the bag of ten marbles,
without replacement. A player wins a prize if three white marbles are drawn.

22f. Grant plays the game until he wins two prizes. Find the probability that [4 marks]
he wins his second prize on his eighth attempt.

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