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    Baye's Rule and Its Use

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    SAMARTH CHAUHAN
    Probability

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    Baye's Rule and Its Use

    Uploaded by

    SAMARTH CHAUHAN
    7 views9 pages
    Probability

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    Baye's rule and its use

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    Probability

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Download as pdf or txt
    7 views9 pages

    Baye's Rule and Its Use

    Uploaded by

    SAMARTH CHAUHAN
    Probability

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 9

    BAYES’ RULE AND ITS USE

    Bayes’ Theorem
    We again consider the conditional probability statement:
    P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)
    P(B) = P(A ∩ B)
    P(B|A1)P(A1) + P(B|A2)P(A2) + ··· + P(B|An)P(An)
    in which we have used the Theorem of Total Probability to replace P(B). Now
    P(A ∩ B) = P(B ∩ A) = P(B|A) × P(A)
    Substituting this in the expression for P(A|B) we immediately obtain the result
    P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A)
    P(B|A1)P(A1) + P(B|A2)P(A) + ··· + P(B|An)P(An)
    This is true for any event A and so, replacing A by Ai gives the result, known as Bayes’
    Theorem
    as
    P(Ai|B) = P(B|Ai) × P(Ai)
    P(B|A1)P(A1) + P(B|A2)P(A2) + ··· + P(B|An)P(An)

    This equation is known as Bayes' rule (also Bayes' law or Bayes' theorem).
    This simple equation underlies all modern AI systems for probabilistic inference.
    Simple Example Problem
    • A doctor knows that the disease meningitis is causes the patient to have a
    stiff neck, say, 50% of the time. The doctor also knows some unconditional
    facts: the prior probability of a patient having meningitis is 1/50,000, and
    the prior probability of any patient having a stiff neck is 1/20. Letting S be
    the proposition that the patient has a stiff neck and M be the proposition
    that the patient has meningitis.
    EXAMPLE PROBLEM

    The training data are in above Table. The data tuples are described by the attributes age,
    income, student, and credit rating. The class label attribute, buys computer, has two distinct
    values (namely, yes, no). Let C1 correspond to the class buys computer = yes and C2
    correspond to buys computer = no. The tuple we wish to classify is X = (age = youth,
    income = medium, student = yes, credit rating = fair)
    • We need to maximize P(X|Ci)P(Ci), for i = 1, 2. P(Ci),
    the prior probability of each class, can be computed
    based on the training tuples:

    • P(buys computer = yes) = 9=14 = 0:643


    • P(buys computer = no) = 5=14 = 0:357
    • To compute P(X|Ci), for i = 1, 2, we compute the
    following conditional probabilities:
    • P(age = youth | buys computer = yes) = ?
    • P(age = youth | buys computer = no) = ?
    • P(income = medium | buys computer = yes) = ?
    • P(income = medium | buys computer = no) = ?
    • P(student = yes | buys computer = yes) = ?
    • P(student = yes | buys computer = no) = ?
    • P(credit rating = fair | buys computer = yes) = ?
    • P(credit rating = fair | buys computer = no) = ?
    = 0.222 X 0.444 X 0.667 X 0.667 = 0.044
    Similarly,
    P(X | buys computer = no)
    = 0.600 X 0.400 X 0.200 X 0.400 = 0.019
    To find the class, Ci, that maximizes P(XjCi)P(Ci), we compute
    P(X | buys computer = yes)P(buys computer = yes) = ?
    P(X | buys computer = no)P(buys computer = no) = ?
    P(X | buys computer = yes)P(buys computer = yes)
    =0.044 X 0.643 = 0.028
    P(X | buys computer = no)P(buys computer = no)
    =0.0918 X 0.357 = 0.007
    Therefore, the naïve Bayesian classifier predicts buys
    computer = yes for tuple X.

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