2 - Calculating Prob

Computing Probability
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Objectives
1 Evaluate probability of joint events such as unions
and intersections from the probabilities of
individual events with additive rule
2 Interpret and calculate conditional probabilities of
events.
3 Use conditional probability to
• understand the independent concept
• derive multiple law, total law and Bayes’ rule
to compute probability or conditional
probability of complicated events
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Inclusion - Exclusion principle
Table of contents
1 Inclusion - Exclusion principle
2 Conditional probability
3 Multiplication formula and Tree diagram
4 Total probability law
5 Bayes’ Theorem
6 Independence
3 / 87
From Axioms of Probability
A ∪ B = I ∪ II ∪ III, A = I ∪ II, B = II ∪ III

where I, II, III are disjoint. So
P (A ∪ B) = P (I) + P (II) + P (III),
P (A) = P (I) + P (II), P (B) = P (II) + P (III)
4 / 87
Inclusion - Exclusion Formula
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
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Inclusion - Exclusion Formula
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive (AB = ∅)

then
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
As a consequence
Complement Rule
P (Ac) = 1 − P (A)
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General Inclusion - Exclusion Formula

1 P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) −
P (AB) − P (BC) − P (CA) + P (ABC)
2
P (A1 ∪ A2 ∪ ... ∪ An)

=P (A1) + P (A2) + · · · + P (An)
X X
− P (AiA)j + P (AiAj Ak )
i1 <ij i<j<k
+ · · · + (−1)n−1P (A1A2 . . . An)

6 / 87
Example
After being interviewed at two companies he likes,
John assesses that his probability of getting an
offer from company A is 0.8, and his probabil-
ity of getting an offer from company B is 0.6.
If he believes that the probability that he will
get offers from both companies is 0.5, what is
the probability that he will get at least one of-
fer from these two companies?
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Solution
Denote
• A: he gets offer from company A
• B: he gets offer from company B
then the event
• A: get offers from both companies is A ∩ B
• B: get at least one offer is A ∪ B
We have
P (A) = 0.8, P (B) = 0.6, P (A ∩ B) = 0.5
We need to compute
P (A ∪ B)
8 / 87
Applying inclusion - exclusion formula, we ob-

tain
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
so
P (A ∪ B) = 0.8 + 0.6 − 0.5 = 0.9
9 / 87
Exercise
A customer will invest in tax-free bonds with a
probability of 0.6, will invest in mutual funds
with a probability of 0.3, and will invest in both
tax-free bonds and mutual funds with a probabil-
ity of 0.15. Find the probability that a customer
will invest
1 in either tax-free bonds or mutual funds;
2 in neither tax-free bonds nor mutual funds.
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Conditional probability
Table of contents
5 Bayes’ Theorem
6 Independence
11 / 87
We assigned probabilities to events, i.e. to pos-

sible outcomes of a future experiment, we as-
sumed that we have no knowledge whatsoever
about the outcome that will occur.
There are many instances, however, when we

have some knowledge about what will happen
or what has already happened. .
12 / 87
We assigned probabilities to events, i.e. to pos-

sible outcomes of a future experiment, we as-
sumed that we have no knowledge whatsoever
about the outcome that will occur.
There are many instances, however, when we

have some knowledge about what will happen
or what has already happened. .
Example
In an experiment involving two successive rolls
of a fair die, you are told that the sum of the
two rolls is 9. How likely is it that the first
roll was a 6? 12 / 87
• Restrict possible outcomes on new sample

space {(3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3)}
• First roll was 6 = {(6, 3)}
• the probabililty is equal to 14 = 0.25
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Example
Select randomly one out of the 10 balls and then, without
returning this to the box, we take another one.
What is the prob that the second ball is blue if the first ball
is white?
14 / 87
Example
Select randomly one out of the 10 balls and then, without
returning this to the box, we take another one.
What is the prob that the second ball is blue if the first ball
is white? 49
14 / 87
Example
A class contains 26 students. Of these, 14 are
economics majors, 15 are first-year students, and
7 are neither. A person is selected at random
from the class.
1 What is the probability that the person is
both an economics major and a first- year
student?
2 Given that (i.e. it is known that ) the per-
son selected is a first-year student. What is
the probability that he or she is also an eco-
nomics major?
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Solution
5
1
13
2
2
3
16 / 87
• 2 events A and B
17 / 87
• 2 events A and B
• If we know for sure that A happens, how
does the likelihood of B change?
seek to construct a new probability law, which
takes into account this knowledge and which, for
any event A, gives us the conditional probability
of B given A, denoted by P (B|A)
17 / 87
Definition (Conditional Probability)

The conditional probability of B given A,
denoted by P (B|A), is defined by
P (AB)
P (B|A) =
P (A)
if P (A) > 0
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Definition (Conditional Probability)

The conditional probability of B given A,
denoted by P (B|A), is defined by
P (AB)
P (B|A) =
P (A)
if P (A) > 0
Measure the likelihood of B in the new sample
space A
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Meaning
Conditional probability provides the capability

of reevaluating the idea of probability of an event
in light of additional information, that is, when
it is known that another event has occurred. The
probability P (A|B) is an updating of P (A)
based on the knowledge that event B has oc-
curred.
19 / 87
Properties
1 Complement rule
P (B c|A) = 1 − P (B|A)
2 Additive rule
P (B ∪ C|A) = P (B|A) + P (C|A) − P (BC|A)
20 / 87
Example
Twenty percent of the employees of Acme Steel

Company are college graduates. Of all of its em-
ployees, 20% are college graduate and 15% are
college graduates earning more than $50,000. What
is the probability that an employee selected
at random earns more than $50,000 per year,
given that he or she is a college graduate?
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Solution
• H = “earns more than $50,000 per year”
• C = “college graduate.”
• We need to compute P (H|C)
• Given data P (C) = 0.2, P (H ∩ C) = 0.15
•
P (H ∩ C) 0.15
P (H|C) = = = 0.75
P (C) 0.2
22 / 87
Practice
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight
departs on time is P (D) = 0.83; the probability
that it arrives on time is P (A) = 0.82; and the
probability that it departs and arrives on time is
P (A ∩ D) = 0.78. Find the probability that a
plane
1 arrives on time, given that it departed on
time
2 departed on time, given that it has arrived
on time.
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Interpretation
In the group of employees which are college grad-

uate, there are 75% earn more than $50,000 per
year
24 / 87
Example
Education Male Female
Elementary 38 45
Secondary 28 50
College 22 17
If a person is picked at random from this group,
find the probability that the person is a male,
given that the person has a secondary education.
25 / 87
Question: find the probability that

the person is a male,
| {z }
A: interested event
given that
the person has a secondary education
| {z }
B: addition information - condition or new sample space
26 / 87
Question: find the probability that

the person is a male,
| {z }
A: interested event
given that
the person has a secondary education
| {z }
B: addition information - condition or new sample space
Find
P (AB)
P (A|B) =
P (B)
26 / 87
Solution - 1st
approach
• Sample size: number of ways to pick a person
randomly is
|Ω| = 38 + 45 + 28 + 50 + 22 + 17 = 200
• Convert data into probability
Education Male Female Sum
38
Elementary 200 = .19 .225
Secondary .14 .25 .39
College .11 .085 .195
Sum .44 .56 1
27 / 87
Education Male Female Sum

Elementary .19 .225
Secondary .14 .25 .39
= P (AB) = P (B)
College .11 .085 .195
Sum .44 .56 1
P (AB) .14
P (A|B) = =
P (B) .39
28 / 87
Solution - 2nd
approach
• New sample space is B with 78 elements
• In new sample space, the number of ways
to pick a male is 28
• The probability that the person is a male,
given that the person has a secondary
education is
28
≈ 0.36
78
29 / 87
Intepretation
Among all the person with secondary education,

the fraction of male is 36%
30 / 87
Multiplication formula and Tree diagram
Table of contents
5 Bayes’ Theorem
6 Independence
31 / 87
Multiplication Formula
P (AB) = P (B|A)P (A).

Think of AB as event with 2 steps, then prob-
ability equals probability of first step multiply
with the conditional probability of second step
given first step
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Example
Draw 2 balls without replacement from the box.
What is the probability that both balls are white?

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Solution
• Ai: the ith draw is white

• 6
P (A1) = 10
• P (A2|A1) = 59
6 5

• P (A1A2) = P (A1)P (A2|A1) = 10 9 =
1
3
34 / 87
Multistep
Sequence of events A1, A2, . . . , Ak
P (A1A2 . . . Ak ) =P (A1) × P (A2|A1) × P (A3|A1A
× P (Ak |A1 . . . Ak−1)
35 / 87
Example - Qualify
control
A box contains five good lightbulbs and two de-
fective ones.
Bulbs are selected one at a time (without replace-
ment) until a good bulb is found. Find the prob-
ability that the number of bulbs selected is
(i) one, (ii) two, (iii) three.
36 / 87
Solution
Initial situation A bulb selected at random
will be
• good (G) with
probability 57
• defective (D) with
probability 27
If a good bulb is selected then the activity stops

37 / 87
Situation if the first selected bulb is defective
The second bulb selected at

random will be
• good (G) with
probability 56
probability 16
38 / 87
Situation if the first and second selected bulbs

are defective
The third bulb selected at

random will be
• good (G) with
probability 1
probability 0
The activity stops 39 / 87

Each of the three paths leading to a G has a dif-

ferent length.
5
(i) P (1) =
7
2 5 5
(ii) P (2) = . =
7 6 21
2 1 1
(iii) P (3) = . .1 =
7 6 21
40 / 87
Practice
A lot of 100 semiconductor chips contains 20

that are defective.
Three are selected, at random, without replace-

ment, from the lot. Determine the probability
that all are defective.
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Practice
Suppose that P (A|B) = 0.4, P (B) = 0.5. De-

termine
1 P (A ∩ B)
′
2 P (A ∩ B)
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Practice
The probability that the head of a household is

home when a telemarketing representative calls
is 0.4. Given that the head of the house is home,
the probability that goods will be bought from
the company is 0.3. Find the probability that the
head of the house is home and goods are bought
from the company.
43 / 87
Total probability law
Table of contents
5 Bayes’ Theorem
6 Independence
44 / 87
Partition
A1 , . . . , An is a partition of Ω if
• mutually exclusive: Ai Aj = ∅ for i ̸= j
• A 1 ∪ A 2 ∪ . . . An = Ω
45 / 87
Partition
A1 , . . . , An is a partition of Ω if
• mutually exclusive: Ai Aj = ∅ for i ̸= j
• A 1 ∪ A 2 ∪ . . . An = Ω
BA1 , . . . , BAn is a partition of B

B = BA1 ∪ BA2 ∪ ... ∪ BAn
45 / 87
Total probability
formula - divide - and -
conquer
• Partition sample space into A1, A2, . . . , An
• Know P (B|Ai) for every i
• Compute P (B)
Xn
P (B) = P (BAi)
i=1
Xn
= P (B|Ai)P (Ai)
46 / 87
Example
Select randomly one out of the a box of 6 blue

balls and 4 green balls. Then without returning
this to the box, we take another one.
What is the probability that the second ball is

blue?
47 / 87
Solution
Denote
• B2: the second ball is blue
• G1: the first ball is green
• B1: the first ball is blue
We need to compute P (B2).
48 / 87
There are two possible cases that the 2nd ball is

blue
B2 = (B1G1) ∪ (B2G2)
By total law,
P (B2) = P (B2 ∩ G1) + P (B2 ∩ B1)

= P (G1)P (B2|G1) + P (B1)P (B2|B1)
4 6 6 5 54
= × + × = = 0.6
10 9 10 9 90
49 / 87
Example
You enter a chess tournament where your probability of

winning a game is 0.3 against half the players (call them
type 1), 0.4 against a quarter of the players (call them type
2), and 0.5 against the remaining quarter of the players
(call them type 3). You play a game against a randomly
chosen opponent. What is the probability of winning?
50 / 87
Solution
• Ai: your opponent is of type i
• W : you win
• The event that you win can be divided into
three cases according to the type of your
opponent
W = (A1W ) ∪ (A2W ) ∪ (A2W )
51 / 87
P (Ai) P (W |Ai) P (AiW )

1 1
2 0.3 2 (0.3) = 0.15
1 1
4 0.4 4 (0.4) = 0.1
1 1
4 0.5 4 (0.5) = 0.125
P (W ) = 0.15 + 0.16 + 0.2 = 0.375
52 / 87
Example
In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1 , B2 , and

B3 , make 30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the prod-
ucts. It is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and
2% of the products made by each machine, respectively,
are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is ran-
domly selected. What is the probability that it is defec-
tive?
53 / 87
Solution
Denote
• A: the selected product is defective
• Bi: the selected product is made by
machine Bi
The event that the selected product is defective
can be divided into three cases according to which
machine made it
A = (AB1) ∪ (AB2) ∪ (AB3)
54 / 87
• P (AB1) = P (B1)P (A|B1) = (.3)(.02) =

.006
• P (AB2) = P (B2)P (A|B2) = (.45)(.03) =
.0135
• P (AB3) = P (B1)P (A|B1) = (.25)(.02) =
.005
So P (A) = P (AB1) + P (AB2) + P (AB3) =
0.0245
55 / 87
Re-evaluate
if a product was chosen randomly and found to

be defective, what is the probability that it was
made by machine B3?
56 / 87
Solution
P (B3A)
P (B3|A) =
P (A)
0.005 10
= =
0.0245 49
57 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Table of contents
5 Bayes’ Theorem
6 Independence
58 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes’ Theorem
• B1, B2, . . . , Bn are

mutually exclusive
• B1 ∪ B2 ∪ · · · ∪ Bn = S
P (Bk )P (A|Bk )
P (Bk |A) =
P (B1 )P (A|B1 ) + · · · + P (Bn )P (A|Bn )
for k = 1, 2, . . . , n
59 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Meaning
• Prior probability P (Bi) - initial belief
• Know P (A|Bi) for each i
• Given A occurs, wish to revise (update)
”belief” P (Bk |A)
P (A|Bk )P (Bk )
P (Bk |A) = Pn
i=1 P (A|Bi )P (Bi )
60 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes’ rule is often used for inference. There

are a number of “causes” that may result in a
certain “effect.” We observe the effect, and we
wish to infer the cause
61 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Exercise
There is 0.25% of the general population suffer
from Covid. To diagnose whether someone suf-
fers from Covid, there is a medical examination
which has a probability 1% of giving a false re-
sult if someone has Covid and 2% if someone
does not have Covid. If we select at random a
person from the general population and he/she
tests positive for Covid, what is the probability
that this person actually suffers from Covid?
62 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Exericse
A contestant on a television show has to answer
multiple choice questions with four possible an-
swers. The probability that the contestant knows
the answer to a question is 75%. If the contestant
does not know the answer to a particular ques-
tion, she gives an answer at random. If she has
answered the first question correctly, what is the
probability that she knew the answer?
63 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Example
A plane is missing and it was equally likely to have gone

down in any of three possible regions. Let 1 − αi denote
the probability the plane will be found upon a search of
the i-th region when the plane is, in fact, in that region,
i = 1, 2, 3. What is the conditional probability that the
plane is in the i-th region, given that a search of region 1
is unsuccessful, i = 1, 2, 3?
64 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
• Ai={the plane is in region i}
65 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution

• B={search of region 1 was unsuccessful}
65 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution

• B={search of region 1 was unsuccessful}
• Need P (Ai|B) =?
65 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
Need to find
P (AiB) and P (B)
with information
• P (Ai) = 31
• P ( plane is found in region i|Ai) = 1 − α
66 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
P (A1B) =?
67 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
P (A1B) =?
A1B means that
• Plane is in region 1
• Search in region 1 was unsuccessful =
plane was not found in region 1
67 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
P (A1B) =?
A1B means that
1 α1
P (A1B) = P (A1)P (B|A1) = ∗ α1 =
3 3
67 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
A2B means that

68 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
A2B means that

1 1
P (A2B) = P (A2)P (B|A2) = ∗ 1 =
3 3
68 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
A3B means that

69 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
A3B means that

1 1
P (A3B) = P (A3)P (B|A3) = ∗ 1 =
3 3
69 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
P (B) =P (A1B) + P (A2B) + P (A3B)

1 1 1
=α1 × + 1 × + 1 ×
3 3 3
α1 + 2
=
3
70 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
P (B) =P (A1B) + P (A2B) + P (A3B)

1 1 1
=α1 × + 1 × + 1 ×
3 3 3
α1 + 2
=
3
70 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
P (A1B) α1
P (A1|B) = =
P (B) α1 + 2
71 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
P (A1B) α1
P (A1|B) = =
P (B) α1 + 2
P (A2B) 1
P (A2|B) = =
P (B) α1 + 2
71 / 87
Bayes’ Theorem
Solution
P (A1B) α1
P (A1|B) = =
P (B) α1 + 2
P (A2B) 1
P (A2|B) = =
P (B) α1 + 2
P (A3B) 1
P (A3|B) = =
P (B) α1 + 2
71 / 87
Independence
Table of contents
5 Bayes’ Theorem
6 Independence
72 / 87
Independence
Idea
• Usually P (A|B) ̸= P (A).
73 / 87
Independence
Idea

• If P (A|B) = P (A), B has no effect on A
or knowing B does not change the
probability that A happens then
73 / 87
Independence
Idea

• If P (A|B) = P (A), B has no effect on A
or knowing B does not change the
probability that A happens then
• A and B have no relation
73 / 87
Independence
Independent events
A and B are independent if

P (A|B) = P (A)
or
P (AB) = P (A)P (B).
74 / 87
Independence
Complement
If A is independent of B then it is independent

of B c.
75 / 87
Independence
Example
Two successive rolls of a fair 6-sided die
A: the 1st roll results in 2
B: the 2nd roll results in 4
Are A and B independent?
76 / 87
Independence
Solution
• P (A) = 16
• P (B) = 16
• 1
P (AB) = 36 = P (A)P (B)
• A and B are independent
77 / 87
Independence
Practice
Suppose that P (A|B) = 0.4, P (B) = 0.8 and

P (A) = 0.5. Are A and B are independent?
78 / 87
Independence
Practice
400 parts classified by surface flaws and as (func-
tionally) defective
Select randomly a part. Let

D = ”the part is defective”
F = ”the part has surface flaw”
Are D and F independent? 79 / 87
Independence
Independence of a set
of events
A set of events is said to be independent if, for
each collection of events chosen from them, say,
E1, E2, ..., En, we have
P (E1 ∩ · · · ∩ En) = P (E1) . . . P (En)
80 / 87
Independence
Example
Three events A, B, and C are independent: P (A) =

.5, P (B) = .3, and P (C) = .2.
1 Calculate P (A ∩ B ∩ C).
2 Calculate P (A ∩ C).
81 / 87
Independence
Example
A company manufactures stereo components. Ex-
perience shows that defects in manufacture are
independent of one another. Quality-control stud-
ies reveal that
2% of CD players are defective,
3% of amplifiers are defective,
7% of speakers are defective.
A system consists of a CD player, an amplifier,
and two speakers. What is the probability that
the system is not defective?
82 / 87
Independence
Example
• A series system is up if all of its

component is up
• Components operate independently
• pi: prob that component i is up
• Prob that series system is up: p1p2...pn
83 / 87
Independence
Example
A parallel system is up if any one of its compo-
nent is up
Assume that all component operates independently

84 / 87
Independence
• pi: probability that component i is up

• Probability that the parallel system is
down:
85 / 87
Independence

down:
(1 − p1)(1 − p2)...(1 − pn)
• Probability that the parallel system is up:
85 / 87
Independence

down:
(1 − p1)(1 − p2)...(1 − pn)
• Probability that the parallel system is up:
1 − (1 − p1)(1 − p2)...(1 − pn)
85 / 87
Independence
Example
An electronic system consists of 4 independent
components. Find the probability that entire sys-
tem works.
86 / 87
Independence
Solution
• Probability that the subsystem CD in
parallel is up
pCD = 1 − (1 − pC )(1 − pD )
= 1 − (1 − .8)(1 − .8) = .96
• Probability that the whole system is up
pApB pCD = (.9)(.9)(.96) =
87 / 87

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2 - Calculating Prob

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Computing Probability

From Axioms of Probability

A ∪ B = I ∪ II ∪ III, A = I ∪ II, B = II ∪ III

Inclusion - Exclusion Formula

Inclusion - Exclusion Formula

If A and B are mutually exclusive (AB = ∅)

General Inclusion - Exclusion Formula

P (A1 ∪ A2 ∪ ... ∪ An)

+ · · · + (−1)n−1P (A1A2 . . . An)

Applying inclusion - exclusion formula, we ob-

We assigned probabilities to events, i.e. to pos-

There are many instances, however, when we

We assigned probabilities to events, i.e. to pos-

There are many instances, however, when we

• Restrict possible outcomes on new sample

Definition (Conditional Probability)

Definition (Conditional Probability)

Conditional probability provides the capability

Twenty percent of the employees of Acme Steel

In the group of employees which are college grad-

Question: find the probability that

Question: find the probability that

Education Male Female Sum

Among all the person with secondary education,

P (AB) = P (B|A)P (A).

What is the probability that both balls are white?

• Ai: the ith draw is white

(i) one, (ii) two, (iii) three.

If a good bulb is selected then the activity stops

Situation if the first selected bulb is defective

The second bulb selected at

Situation if the first and second selected bulbs

The third bulb selected at

The activity stops 39 / 87

Each of the three paths leading to a G has a dif-

A lot of 100 semiconductor chips contains 20

Three are selected, at random, without replace-

Suppose that P (A|B) = 0.4, P (B) = 0.5. De-

The probability that the head of a household is

BA1 , . . . , BAn is a partition of B

Select randomly one out of the a box of 6 blue

What is the probability that the second ball is

There are two possible cases that the 2nd ball is

P (B2) = P (B2 ∩ G1) + P (B2 ∩ B1)

You enter a chess tournament where your probability of

P (Ai) P (W |Ai) P (AiW )

In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1 , B2 , and

• P (AB1) = P (B1)P (A|B1) = (.3)(.02) =

if a product was chosen randomly and found to

• B1, B2, . . . , Bn are

Bayes’ rule is often used for inference. There

A plane is missing and it was equally likely to have gone

• Ai={the plane is in region i}

• Ai={the plane is in region i}

• Ai={the plane is in region i}

A2B means that

A2B means that

A3B means that

A3B means that

P (B) =P (A1B) + P (A2B) + P (A3B)