Uncertainty

Chapter 13

Chapter 13

Outline
Uncertainty
Probability
Syntax and Semantics
Inference
Independence and Bayes Rule

Chapter 13

Uncertainty
Let action At = leave for airport t minutes before flight
Will At get me there on time?
Problems:
1) partial observability (road state, other drivers plans, etc.)
2) noisy sensors (KCBS traffic reports)
3) uncertainty in action outcomes (flat tire, etc.)
4) immense complexity of modelling and predicting traffic
Hence a purely logical approach either
1) risks falsehood: A25 will get me there on time
or 2) leads to conclusions that are too weak for decision making:
A25 will get me there on time if theres no accident on the bridge
and it doesnt rain and my tires remain intact etc etc.
(A1440 might reasonably be said to get me there on time
but Id have to stay overnight in the airport . . .)
Chapter 13

Methods for handling uncertainty

Default or nonmonotonic logic:
Assume my car does not have a flat tire
Assume A25 works unless contradicted by evidence
Issues: What assumptions are reasonable? How to handle contradiction?
Rules with fudge factors:
A25 70.3 AtAirportOnT ime
Sprinkler 70.99 W etGrass
W etGrass 70.7 Rain
Issues: Problems with combination, e.g., Sprinkler causes Rain??
Probability
Given the available evidence,
A25 will get me there on time with probability 0.04
Mahaviracarya (9th C.), Cardamo (1565) theory of gambling
(Fuzzy logic handles degree of truth NOT uncertainty e.g.,
W etGrass is true to degree 0.2)
Chapter 13

Probability
Probabilistic assertions summarize effects of
laziness: failure to enumerate exceptions, qualifications, etc.
ignorance: lack of relevant facts, initial conditions, etc.
Subjective or Bayesian probability:
Probabilities relate propositions to ones own state of knowledge
e.g., P (A25|no reported accidents) = 0.06
These are not claims of a probabilistic tendency in the current situation
(but might be learned from past experience of similar situations)
Probabilities of propositions change with new evidence:
e.g., P (A25|no reported accidents, 5 a.m.) = 0.15
(Analogous to logical entailment status KB |= , not truth.)

Chapter 13

Making decisions under uncertainty

Suppose I believe the following:
P (A25
P (A90
P (A120
P (A1440

gets
gets
gets
gets

me
me
me
me

there
there
there
there

on
on
on
on

time| . . .)
time| . . .)
time| . . .)
time| . . .)

=
=
=
=

0.04
0.70
0.95
0.9999

Which action to choose?

Depends on my preferences for missing flight vs. airport cuisine, etc.
Utility theory is used to represent and infer preferences
Decision theory = utility theory + probability theory

Chapter 13

Probability basics
Begin with a set the sample space
e.g., 6 possible rolls of a die.
is a sample point/possible world/atomic event
A probability space or probability model is a sample space
with an assignment P () for every s.t.
0 P () 1
P () = 1
e.g., P (1) = P (2) = P (3) = P (4) = P (5) = P (6) = 1/6.
An event A is any subset of
P (A) = {A}P ()
E.g., P (die roll < 4) = P (1) + P (2) + P (3) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/2

Chapter 13

Random variables
A random variable is a function from sample points to some range, e.g., the
reals or Booleans
e.g., Odd(1) = true.
P induces a probability distribution for any r.v. X:
P (X = xi) = {:X() = xi}P ()
e.g., P (Odd = true) = P (1) + P (3) + P (5) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/2

Chapter 13

Propositions
Think of a proposition as the event (set of sample points)
where the proposition is true
Given Boolean random variables A and B:
event a = set of sample points where A() = true
event a = set of sample points where A() = f alse
event a b = points where A() = true and B() = true
Often in AI applications, the sample points are defined
by the values of a set of random variables, i.e., the
sample space is the Cartesian product of the ranges of the variables
With Boolean variables, sample point = propositional logic model
e.g., A = true, B = f alse, or a b.
Proposition = disjunction of atomic events in which it is true
e.g., (a b) (a b) (a b) (a b)
P (a b) = P (a b) + P (a b) + P (a b)
Chapter 13

Why use probability?

The definitions imply that certain logically related events must have related
probabilities
E.g., P (a b) = P (a) + P (b) P (a b)
True
A

>

de Finetti (1931): an agent who bets according to probabilities that violate

these axioms can be forced to bet so as to lose money regardless of outcome.

Chapter 13

10

Syntax for propositions

Propositional or Boolean random variables
e.g., Cavity (do I have a cavity?)
Cavity = true is a proposition, also written cavity
Discrete random variables (finite or infinite)
e.g., W eather is one of hsunny, rain, cloudy, snowi
W eather = rain is a proposition
Values must be exhaustive and mutually exclusive
Continuous random variables (bounded or unbounded)
e.g., T emp = 21.6; also allow, e.g., T emp < 22.0.
Arbitrary Boolean combinations of basic propositions

Chapter 13

11

Prior probability
Prior or unconditional probabilities of propositions
e.g., P (Cavity = true) = 0.1 and P (W eather = sunny) = 0.72
correspond to belief prior to arrival of any (new) evidence
Probability distribution gives values for all possible assignments:
P(W eather) = h0.72, 0.1, 0.08, 0.1i (normalized, i.e., sums to 1)
Joint probability distribution for a set of r.v.s gives the
probability of every atomic event on those r.v.s (i.e., every sample point)
P(W eather, Cavity) = a 4 2 matrix of values:
W eather = sunny rain cloudy snow
Cavity = true 0.144 0.02 0.016 0.02
Cavity = f alse 0.576 0.08 0.064 0.08
Every question about a domain can be answered by the joint
distribution because every event is a sum of sample points
Chapter 13

12

Probability for continuous variables

Express distribution as a parameterized function of value:
P (X = x) = U [18, 26](x) = uniform density between 18 and 26

0.125

18

dx

26

Here P is a density; integrates to 1.

P (X = 20.5) = 0.125 really means
lim P (20.5 X 20.5 + dx)/dx = 0.125

dx0

Chapter 13

13

P (x) =

Gaussian density
2
2
1 e(x) /2
2

Chapter 13

14

Conditional probability
Conditional or posterior probabilities
e.g., P (cavity|toothache) = 0.8
i.e., given that toothache is all I know
NOT if toothache then 80% chance of cavity
(Notation for conditional distributions:
P(Cavity|T oothache) = 2-element vector of 2-element vectors)
If we know more, e.g., cavity is also given, then we have
P (cavity|toothache, cavity) = 1
Note: the less specific belief remains valid after more evidence arrives,
but is not always useful
New evidence may be irrelevant, allowing simplification, e.g.,
P (cavity|toothache, 49ersW in) = P (cavity|toothache) = 0.8
This kind of inference, sanctioned by domain knowledge, is crucial

Chapter 13

15

Conditional probability
Definition of conditional probability:
P (a|b) =

P (a b)
if P (b) 6= 0
P (b)

Product rule gives an alternative formulation:

P (a b) = P (a|b)P (b) = P (b|a)P (a)
A general version holds for whole distributions, e.g.,
P(W eather, Cavity) = P(W eather|Cavity)P(Cavity)
(View as a 4 2 set of equations, not matrix mult.)
Chain rule is derived by successive application of product rule:
P(X1, . . . , Xn) = P(X1, . . . , Xn1) P(Xn|X1, . . . , Xn1)
= P(X1, . . . , Xn2) P(Xn1 |X1, . . . , Xn2) P(Xn|X1, . . . , Xn1)
= ...
n
= i = 1P(Xi|X1, . . . , Xi1)
Chapter 13

16

Inference by enumeration
Start with the joint distribution:
L

toothache
catch

toothache

catch catch

catch

.144 .576

.016 .064

cavity

.072 .008

.108 .012

cavity

For any proposition , sum the atomic events where it is true:

P () = :|= P ()

Chapter 13

17

Inference by enumeration
Start with the joint distribution:
L

toothache
catch

toothache

catch catch

catch

.144 .576

.016 .064

cavity

.072 .008

.108 .012

cavity

For any proposition , sum the atomic events where it is true:

P () = :|= P ()
P (toothache) = 0.108 + 0.012 + 0.016 + 0.064 = 0.2

Chapter 13

18

Inference by enumeration
Start with the joint distribution:
L

toothache
catch

toothache

catch catch

catch

.144 .576

.016 .064

cavity

.072 .008

.108 .012

cavity

For any proposition , sum the atomic events where it is true:

P () = :|= P ()
P (cavitytoothache) = 0.108+0.012+0.072+0.008+0.016+0.064 = 0.28

Chapter 13

19

Inference by enumeration
Start with the joint distribution:
L

toothache
catch

toothache

catch catch

catch

.144 .576

.016 .064

cavity

.072 .008

.108 .012

cavity

Can also compute conditional probabilities:

P (cavity toothache)
P (cavity|toothache) =
P (toothache)
0.016 + 0.064
= 0.4
=
0.108 + 0.012 + 0.016 + 0.064

Chapter 13

20

Normalization
L

toothache
catch

toothache

catch catch

catch

.144 .576

.016 .064

cavity

.072 .008

.108 .012

cavity

Denominator can be viewed as a normalization constant

P(Cavity|toothache) = P(Cavity, toothache)
= [P(Cavity, toothache, catch) + P(Cavity, toothache, catch)]
= [h0.108, 0.016i + h0.012, 0.064i]
= h0.12, 0.08i = h0.6, 0.4i
General idea: compute distribution on query variable
by fixing evidence variables and summing over hidden variables
Chapter 13

21

Inference by enumeration, contd.

Let X be all the variables. Typically, we want
the posterior joint distribution of the query variables Y
given specific values e for the evidence variables E
Let the hidden variables be H = X Y E
Then the required summation of joint entries is done by summing out the
hidden variables:
P(Y|E = e) = P(Y, E = e) = hP(Y, E = e, H = h)
The terms in the summation are joint entries because Y, E, and H together
exhaust the set of random variables
Obvious problems:
1) Worst-case time complexity O(dn) where d is the largest arity
2) Space complexity O(dn) to store the joint distribution
3) How to find the numbers for O(dn) entries???
Chapter 13

22

Independence
A and B are independent iff
P(A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A) = P(B) or P(A, B) = P(A)P(B)
Cavity
Toothache
Catch

decomposes into

Weather

Cavity
Toothache Catch

Weather

P(T oothache, Catch, Cavity, W eather)

= P(T oothache, Catch, Cavity)P(W eather)
32 entries reduced to 12; for n independent biased coins, 2n n
Absolute independence powerful but rare
Dentistry is a large field with hundreds of variables,
none of which are independent. What to do?

Chapter 13

23

Conditional independence
P(T oothache, Cavity, Catch) has 23 1 = 7 independent entries
If I have a cavity, the probability that the probe catches in it doesnt depend
on whether I have a toothache:
(1) P (catch|toothache, cavity) = P (catch|cavity)
The same independence holds if I havent got a cavity:
(2) P (catch|toothache, cavity) = P (catch|cavity)
Catch is conditionally independent of T oothache given Cavity:
P(Catch|T oothache, Cavity) = P(Catch|Cavity)
Equivalent statements:
P(T oothache|Catch, Cavity) = P(T oothache|Cavity)
P(T oothache, Catch|Cavity) = P(T oothache|Cavity)P(Catch|Cavity)

Chapter 13

24

Conditional independence contd.

Write out full joint distribution using chain rule:
P(T oothache, Catch, Cavity)
= P(T oothache|Catch, Cavity)P(Catch, Cavity)
= P(T oothache|Catch, Cavity)P(Catch|Cavity)P(Cavity)
= P(T oothache|Cavity)P(Catch|Cavity)P(Cavity)
I.e., 2 + 2 + 1 = 5 independent numbers (equations 1 and 2 remove 2)
In most cases, the use of conditional independence reduces the size of the
representation of the joint distribution from exponential in n to linear in n.
Conditional independence is our most basic and robust
form of knowledge about uncertain environments.

Chapter 13

25

Bayes Rule
Product rule P (a b) = P (a|b)P (b) = P (b|a)P (a)
P (b|a)P (a)
Bayes rule P (a|b) =
P (b)
or in distribution form
P(X|Y )P(Y )
= P(X|Y )P(Y )
P(Y |X) =
P(X)
Useful for assessing diagnostic probability from causal probability:
P (Ef f ect|Cause)P (Cause)
P (Cause|Ef f ect) =
P (Ef f ect)
E.g., let M be meningitis, S be stiff neck:
P (s|m)P (m) 0.8 0.0001
=
= 0.0008
P (m|s) =
P (s)
0.1
Note: posterior probability of meningitis still very small!
Chapter 13

26

Bayes Rule and conditional independence

P(Cavity|toothache catch)
= P(toothache catch|Cavity)P(Cavity)
= P(toothache|Cavity)P(catch|Cavity)P(Cavity)
This is an example of a naive Bayes model:
P(Cause, Ef f ect1, . . . , Ef f ectn) = P(Cause)iP(Ef f ecti|Cause)
Cavity

Toothache

Catch

Cause

Effect 1

Effect n

Total number of parameters is linear in n

Chapter 13

27

Wumpus World

2,2

1,2

2,3

1,3

2,4

1,4

4,3

3,3

4,4

3,4

3,2

4,2

B
OK
1,1

2,1

3,1

4,1

B
OK

OK

Pij = true iff [i, j] contains a pit

Bij = true iff [i, j] is breezy
Include only B1,1, B1,2, B2,1 in the probability model

Chapter 13

28

Specifying the probability model

The full joint distribution is P(P1,1, . . . , P4,4, B1,1, B1,2, B2,1)
Apply product rule: P(B1,1, B1,2, B2,1 | P1,1, . . . , P4,4)P(P1,1, . . . , P4,4)
(Do it this way to get P (Ef f ect|Cause).)
First term: 1 if pits are adjacent to breezes, 0 otherwise
Second term: pits are placed randomly, probability 0.2 per square:
4,4

P(P1,1, . . . , P4,4) = i,j = 1,1P(Pi,j ) = 0.2n 0.816n

for n pits.

Chapter 13

29

Observations and query

We know the following facts:
b = b1,1 b1,2 b2,1
known = p1,1 p1,2 p2,1
Query is P(P1,3|known, b)
Define U nknown = Pij s other than P1,3 and Known
For inference by enumeration, we have
P(P1,3|known, b) = unknownP(P1,3, unknown, known, b)
Grows exponentially with number of squares!

Chapter 13

30

Using conditional independence

Basic insight: observations are conditionally independent of other hidden
squares given neighbouring hidden squares

2,3

1,3

2,4

1,4

4,3

3,3

4,4

3,4

OTHER

QUERY

2,1

1,1

2,2

1,2

KNOWN

3,2

FRINGE
3,1

4,2

4,1

Define U nknown = F ringe Other

P(b|P1,3, Known, U nknown) = P(b|P1,3, Known, F ringe)
Manipulate query into a form where we can use this!
Chapter 13

31

Using conditional independence contd.

P(P1,3|known, b)
=

unknown
X

=
=
=

unknown

P(P1,3, unknown, known, b)

P(b|P1,3, known, unknown)P(P1,3, known, unknown)

f ringe other
X

f ringe other
f ringe

P(b|known, P1,3, f ringe, other)P(P1,3, known, f ringe, other)

P(b|known, P1,3, f ringe)P(P1,3, known, f ringe, other)

P(b|known, P1,3, f ringe)

f ringe

f ringe

f ringe

other

P(b|known, P1,3, f ringe)

P (known)P(P1,3)

= 0

P(P1,3)

P(P1,3, known, f ringe, other)

other

P(P1,3)P (known)P (f ringe)P (other)

P(b|known, P1,3, f ringe)P (f ringe)

other

P (other

P(b|known, P1,3, f ringe)P (f ringe)

Chapter 13

32

1,3

1,2

2,2

Using conditional independence contd.

1,3

1,2

OK

OK

1,1

2,1

3,1

1,1

2,2

1,3

1,2

2,2

3,1

1,1

OK

1,3

2,2

3,1

1,1

OK

1,3

2,2
B
OK

2,1

OK

0.2 x 0.8 = 0.16

1,2

B
OK
2,1

OK

1,2

B
OK
2,1

B
OK

0.2 x 0.2 = 0.04

3,1

1,1

2,1

OK

OK

0.8 x 0.2 = 0.16

3,1
B

OK

OK

0.2 x 0.2 = 0.04

OK

0.2 x 0.8 = 0.16

P(P1,3|known, b) = 0 h0.2(0.04 + 0.16 + 0.16), 0.8(0.04 + 0.16)i

h0.31, 0.69i
P(P2,2|known, b) h0.86, 0.14i

Chapter 13

33

Summary
Probability is a rigorous formalism for uncertain knowledge
Joint probability distribution specifies probability of every atomic event
Queries can be answered by summing over atomic events
For nontrivial domains, we must find a way to reduce the joint size
Independence and conditional independence provide the tools

Chapter 13

34