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EARLY WARFARE AND ITS CONTRIBUTION TO NEOLITHISATION AND

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German Archaeological Institute
Research Cluster I
From Seditenterization to complex societies: settlement, economy, environment
Workshop: Paleaoenvironment and the Development of Early Societies

EARLY WARFARE AND ITS CONTRIBUTION TO NEOLITHISATION AND DISPERSAL

OF FIRST FARMING COMMUNITIES IN ANATOLIA

Lee Clare & Bernhard Weninger

Radiocarbon Laboratory
Institute of Prehistoric Archaeology
University of Cologne.
Germany

Contents

1) Abstract
2) Keywords
3) Introduction
4) Conflict and Neolithisation
5) Conflict and Neolithic dispersal
a. Rapid Climate Change (RCC)
b. Climate and conflict: causality matters
c. Territoriality and Neolithic dispersal
i. Politically motivated expansion
ii. Climate-induced conflicts
6) Conclusions
7) Acknowledgments
8) Bibliography
9) Appendix
EARLY WARFARE AND ITS CONTRIBUTION TO NEOLITHISATION AND DISPERSAL

OF FIRST FARMING COMMUNITIES IN ANATOLIA

Lee Clare & Bernhard Weninger

Radiocarbon Laboratory
Institute of Prehistoric Archaeology
University of Cologne
Germany

Abstract
This paper focuses on the influence of conflict and violence on Neolithisation and Neolithic dispersal in the
Eastern Mediterranean. While the transition from hunter-gathering to Neolithic economies in the early Holocene
is generally regarded as solely practicable at times of peace and harmonious relations between communities, we
ask whether the subsequent dispersal of Neolithic lifeways over tens of hundreds of kilometres in the 7th
millennium calBC was “facilitated” or “accelerated” by climate-induced inter-group violence. We conclude that
although early warfare may have become more frequent among developed Neolithic societies at this time, it is
unlikely that it played any significant role in contemporaneous expansion processes.

Keywords
Neolithic, Anatolia, conflict, warfare, abrupt climate change, territoriality

Introduction
The antiquity of inter-human violence, conflict and warfare has been of constant interest to scholars since
Thomas Hobbes (AD 1588-1679) penned his “Leviathan” in the 17th century and Jean-Jacques Rousseau (AD
1712-1778) formulated his opposing doctrine with its popular myth of a utopian “Golden Age” (Clare and
Gebel 2010). It is perhaps not surprising that modern studies focusing on early warfare can still be assigned to
one or the other of these two paradigms, that of the “philosopher of war” (Hobbes) or the “philosopher of peace”
(Rousseau) (Dawson 1996). This paper discusses the role of violence in Anatolia during the Neolithic inception
and dispersal during the Early Holocene. Whereas modern archaeological studies have focused primarily on the
material evidence for prehistoric conflict and have placed comparatively little emphasis on the study of what we
might term the casus belli, this present paper approaches this topic from the reverse perspective. Specifically, we
tackle the topic of abrupt climate change and conflict. In other words, we ask to what extent can Rapid Climate
Change (RCC), as documented in various Early Holocene palaeoclimate proxies (6600-6000 calBC), be
evaluated as representing a causal trigger for inter-group violence? Our special focus lies on the dispersal of first
farming communities from Central Anatolia to the Turkish West Coast, for which recent (and still running)
excavations at the sites of Ulucak (near Izmir) and Çukuriçi Höyük (near Ephesus) have provided new and
extensive sets of stratified 14
C-ages (Çilingiroğlu 2009; Çilingiroğlu 2011; Çilingiroğlu et al., 2012; Horejs
and Weninger, in press).

Recent meteorological research of extreme cold weather conditions associated with Siberian High (SH)
expansion (Tubi and Dayan, 2012) also provides us with new insights concerning the development (on a
daily/weekly scale during winter and early spring) of the atmospheric component of what we otherwise (for
simplicity) refer to as the Rapid Climate Change mechanism. In the initial section of our paper we provide a
detailed review of these new meteorological results, which in turn provide the necessary background for our
main focus: Was Neolithic dispersal in the 7th millennium calBC “facilitated” or “accelerated” by inter-group
violence stimulated by RCC-impacts? As such, this study is a further contribution to our widening research
focusing on the impacts of RCC upon prehistoric societies in the Eastern Mediterranean (Weninger and Clare
2011).

Conflict and Neolithisation

In our discussion of violence in the Anatolian Neolithic we differentiate between “conflict and Neolithisation”
and “conflict and Late Neolithic dispersal”. This distinction is purely chronological in nature. While
Neolithisation refers to the period of Neolithic genesis from the 10th millennium calBC, Neolithic dispersal
refers to the major expansion of these lifeways in the Late Neolithic (LN) from around the mid-7th millennium
calBC. While the period of Neolithisation clearly pre-dates the RCC-interval (6600-6000 calBC) central to this
paper, the current insights concerning inter-group violence – or lack thereof – in this earlier period serve as a
useful juxtaposition to the situation as it is now beginning to emerge for the Late Neolithic.

The sharing of knowledge over considerable distances has recently been referred to as the esteemed value of the
Pre-Pottery Neolithic (PPN) without which primary Neolithisation could not have been accomplished (Özdoğan
2010: 54). Simultaneously, and perhaps most importantly, this particular value is considered non-conducive with
social stress, rivalry and conflict between communities. Confirmation for this assumption has been sought, for
example, in the consistency of the obsidian trade between the 11th and 7th millennia calBC in the Near East, and
appears to be confirmed by the apparent absence of archaeological evidence of inter-personal violence in
Anatolia during the PPN. Even ubiquitous lines of evidence, examples for which are known from the Levant
(e.g. the frequently debated defensive function of the walls and tower at Jericho; cf. LeBlanc, 2010:45), is
lacking in Southeast Anatolia. Certainly, in spite of the frequent attestation that absence of evidence is not
evidence of absence, it is unwise to force historical phenomena, such as warfare, upon the prehistoric (in this
case Neolithic) past (e.g. Bernbeck 2010).

Regardless of the egalitarian and harmonious conditions suggested by the esteemed value hypothesis, the PPN
still provides some indications for the development of a ruling class or social elite and associated hierarchical
structures. This is demonstrated by the numerous special buildings (temples, public buildings) documented at
sites from this period, such as at Göbekli Tepe (Schmidt 2011: 53), Çayönü and Nevali Çori (for a summary,
see Hauptmann 2011), as well as by megalithic statuary, sculptures and reliefs that may be attributed to the
skills of specialized craftsmen. Inhumations and burial goods, when they occur, also show signs for incipient
vertical social differentiation of populations, most clearly at Körtik Tepe (Özkaya and Coşkun 2011: 94). These
early ruling elites would have developed or adopted power technologies to set them apart from and above others
whom they would dominate and exploit, likely in the name of divine mandate. In turn, they could have been
charged with guaranteeing good weather, bountiful harvests, and for preventing natural catastrophes and
turbulence. They might also have been considered crucial for the protection of the country from outside enemies
(Hassan 2011: 176).

A break with PPN traditions, and apparently with associated incipient hierarchical systems, is implied for the
transition to the Pottery Neolithic (PN) in the early 7th millennium calBC (Özdoğan 2010: 55). This
development went hand in hand with the abandonment and/or decrease in size of PPN settlements and the
disappearance of monumental statuary. Further, newly founded villages now lacked the previously characteristic
temples and sanctuaries. Özdoğan (2010: 55) states that indications of some sort of social turbulence were
apparent in most core areas of the Neolithic at this time, perhaps associated with upheavals in the balance of
power which led to the relinquishment of PPN social structures. This might be attributed to the migration of
population groups from the south, i.e. the northern Levant, at this time, as suggested by a documented increase in
the number of settlements and characteristic objects of material culture, not least pottery vessels (Özdoğan
2010). One might therefore assume that in the course of these developments the authority of the PPN elite was
being gradually eroded, eventually leading to the eclipse of their political and religious dominance. In spite of
this, there is practically no evidence for inter-group conflict, which might be expected under such circumstances,
i.e. the inferred displacement by foreign communities of local populations, their material culture and traditions
(cf. Helbling 2006: 290–292). Most notably, at sites with a continuous stratigraphic sequence, i.e. spanning the
PPN-PN interim, there is no concrete evidence for a violent transition. One notable exception is the recent
discovery of a massive enclosure wall at Mezraa-Teleilat (Şanlıurfa province) (Özdoğan 2011c: 210–212). This
structure, so far uncovered along a length of twenty metres, and in parts preserved to a height of two metres, has
been dated exactly to the transitional period between PPN and PN, apparently already falling out of use by the
developed Pottery Neolithic phase. Future excavations should clarify the complete extent and function of this
impressive edifice.

Conflict and Late Neolithic dispersal

Moving from the PN to the so-called Late Neolithic (LN), we address whether abrupt climate change, known to
have begun around the middle of the 7th millennium calBC, was in any way contributory to increasing evidence
for conflict at some Turkish sites. This study builds on insights presented in earlier publications which have
focused on the potential impacts of Rapid Climate Change (RCC) as attested in palaeoclimate proxies in the
Eastern Mediterranean for a period of approximately six centuries, between 6600 and 6000 calBC (8.6-8.0 ka
calBP) (e.g. Clare et al. 2008; Weninger et al. 2009; Weninger and Clare 2011).

Rapid Climate Change (RCC)

The term Rapid Climate Change (Mayewski et al. 2004) is used to refer to recurring periods in the Holocene,
with durations of six to seven centuries, characterised by frequent and severe climate fluctuation in the Northern
Hemisphere. RCC intervals occurred at ~10.2 ka calBP, 8.6-8.0 ka calBP, 6.0-5.2 ka calBP, and 3.4-2.7 ka
calBP, while the most recent RCC is commonly referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA). These intervals are
associated with a more pronounced Siberian High over Asia leading to an increased occurrence and severity of
winter outbreaks over Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean. Modern analogies demonstrate that particularly the
Aegean, the Balkans, Cyprus, the NE-Mediterranean (SE-Turkey, Syria) and Mesopotamia lie in the path of
winter polar outbursts due to their location within defined RCC-corridors.

Siberian High (SH)

The Siberian High (SH) is a dominant atmospheric (anticyclone) circulation system in the lower troposphere
which not only controls most of continental Asia but also exerts a significant influence on winter climate over
middle to high latitude Eurasia. The genesis of the SH is related to a combination of mid and high latitude
radiative cooling over Asia, teleconnections to the North Atlantic, and possibly to local variations in autumnal
snow cover in its central area of origin (Cohen et al., 2001).

The westward extension of the SH can lead to continental polar outbreaks over the Aegean, the Adriatic, and the
Gulf of Lion. These outbreaks are linked to orographic channeling of these air masses at the northern
Mediterranean margin, more commonly known as the Vardar, Bora and Mistral winds (Casford et al., 2003).
These winds cause evaporation and sea surface cooling and are recognised as an integral element contributing to
Mediterranean deep water formation (Rohling et al., 2009). At times when the EMed is not under the influence
of a dominant synoptic disturbance, e.g. the Cyprus Low, polar ridges of high pressure extending from the SH
can also penetrate the region from the north and north-east, entering via the Caucasus and Caspian Sea (Saaroni
et al., 1996). A secondary source of polar outbreaks is an area of local high pressure which frequently develops
over Anatolia due to the topographic structure of the central plateau. It also forms part of the polar ridge
connected to the Siberian anticyclone (Saaroni et al., 1996).

Continental polar outbreaks in the EMed occur most frequently in December, with fewer occurrences in
November and January. February and March have still lower frequencies, and in October there are the least
occurrences. There are no polar outbreaks in the summer months (Saaroni et al., 1996). The decrease in the
number of outbreaks in January is linked to the end of maximum cooling over Eurasia and the associated drop in
anticyclone genesis; this is the same mechanism (increasing solar radiation) that is also shown to influence the
trajectories of Mediterranean low pressure cyclones. Remarkably, there is a higher frequency and severity of
polar outbreaks in the north-eastern corner of the Mediterranean basin and in Anatolia. This is related to the
greater influence of easterly air flow in these parts which of course favours such conditions (Saaroni et al.,
1996). Concerning their duration, polar outbreaks tend to fall into two categories. The first category, the most
common, is an outbreak lasting between one and two days. Outbreaks belonging to the second category can
persist for more than twice this time (Saaroni et al., 1996).

Much like the NAO the SH is also characterised by clear temporal trends, i.e. periods with strong or weak states
which can persist over years or decades (Sahsamanoglou et al. 1991). Significantly, a weakening of the SH has
been shown to correlate with trends to positive NAO, and a stronger SH is generally synonymous with a negative
NAO index (Dickson et al., 2000; Yang et al., 2011). Of particular importance for our studies are the second
conditions (strong SH, weak Icelandic Low, negative NAO), for which recent research (Tubi and Dayan 2012)
now provides a more detailed picture of the synoptic atmospheric conditions that favour the preconditions and
evolution of winter/spring cold extremes.

As illustrated in Figs. 3 and 4, there are two main geographic corridors for the outflow of cold masses from the
polar regions during times of pronounced Siberian High (Tubi and Dayan, 2012; with further references). The
first corridor extends from Central Asia and runs north of the Himalayas in a westerly direction, crossing the
Northern Pontic steppes into the Ukraine, and into Southeast Europe. The cold air masses are then orographically
channelled through the Balkans, from whence they proceed southward across the Aegean Sea (Rohling et al.
2002). The second corridor, for which there are presently no archaeological RCC-impact studies, also extends
from Central Asia but runs east of the Himalayas across China into the Pacific (Tubi and Dayan 2012). Finally,
we note that the occurrence of such anomalous winter conditions is well-known, and feared, in Mongolia (where
the cold air outbreaks are referred to as dzuds) due to the serious damage they cause in agriculture as well as in
livestock mortality (Lau and Lau 1984; Begzsuren et al. 2004; referenced in Tubi and Dayan 2012).

However, as demonstrated by historical data from the recent LIA, severe winter outbreaks, which can be
expected for all these regions in RCC-intervals, are not the only form of perturbation that would have impacted
contemporary farming communities (Clare in prep.). Based on historical records from this period, RCC-
conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean are also shown to be associated with drought and extreme precipitation
anomalies. Although appearing paradoxical, this is simply a reflection of inter-annual variability within a context
of significantly increased winter extremes (Clare et al. 2008; Weninger and Clare 2011).

Fig. 1 A schematic illustration of winds and pressure systems during negative and positive NAO phases (after
Petersen 2010: fig. 4.24). Also shown is a simplified representation (without scale) of composite precipitation
anomalies as calculated by Cullen et al. (2002: fig.2) based on data collated between January 1979 and
December 1998. Grey shading denotes increased winter precipitation while white-coloured areas indicate drier
conditions. Periods with -NAO (top) are associated with a weak Azores High and a weak Icelandic Low. Strong
westerlies bring wetter conditions to the Mediterranean, particular Iberia, and cold-dry winters to NW-Europe. In
contrast, +NAO (bottom) is characterised by a more intense Icelandic Low and stronger Azores High. These
atmospheric conditions are associated with north-westerly storm tracks which bring milder and wetter winters to
NW-Europe. Remarkably, there are clear teleconnections between the state of the prevailing NAO and the
strength of the Siberian High (SH) over Asia. While +NAO conditions show notable correlations with a weaker
SH, periods with -NAO correspond to a stronger SH in the winter months (e.g. Sahsamanoglou et al. 1991;
Dickson et al. 2000; Gong and Ho 2002).

Importantly, the (atmospheric) SH-mechanism is not the only source of climate perturbation in the Northern
Hemisphere in this period. The final centuries of the 9th millennium calBP also feature the (marine) 8.2 ka
calBP (Hudson Bay) Event (e.g. Alley and Ágústsdóttir 2005). It is stressed, however, that the two mechanisms
are unrelated, though their accumulated impact may well have triggered some of the most extreme climate
anomalies of the early Holocene. The outflow of meltwater from the Laurentide ice sheet into the Labrador Sea
from lakes Agassiz and Ojibway resulted in the interruption of the heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere
and deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, leading to cooling of the Northern Hemisphere for a period of
approximately two centuries (~8.2-8.0 ka calBP).
Fig. 2 Set of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate records showing Holocene Rapid Climate Change (RCC) (for
locations cf. Fig.1). (A) GRIP ice-core δ18O as proxy for air-temperature over Greenland (Grootes et al. 1993),
(B) Sufular Cave δ13C as proxy for tree/steppe vegetation (Fleitmann et al. 2009), (C) Tenaghi Philippon tree
pollen as proxy for tree/non-tree vegetation (Pross et al. 2009), (D) Eastern Mediterranean core LC21, marine
fauna as proxy for SST-variations (seasonal: winter/spring) (Rohling et al. 2002), (E) Eastern Aegean core
LS21, marine fauna as proxy for SST-variations (seasonal: winter/spring) (Marino et al., 2009), (F) Northern
Aegean Core MNB3, PCC=Planktonic Climate Curve as proxy for SST-variations (Geraga et al. 2010), (G)
Gaussian smoothed (200 yr) GISP2 nss [K+] as proxy for the Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997; Meeker and
Mayewski 2002), (H) High-Resolution GISP2 nss [K+] as proxy for the Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997;
Meeker and Mayewski 2002).
Fig. 3 Atmospheric circulation patterns showing the outbreaks of polar cold air masses during the 1968-1969
winter (averaged minimal day temperatures). Top left: prior to outbreak (11-20 January 1969); top right: onset
(15-24 January 1969); bottom left: spell centre (21-30 January 1969); bottom right: Termination (31 January–9
February 1969) (Tubi and Dayan 2012; Graph: Tubi and Dayan, pers. comm.).

Fig. 4 Schematic representation of synoptic atmospheric conditions favouring bitterly cold air outbreaks from the
polar region in times of pronounced Siberian High. Note the occurrence of two corridors for cold air flow
Bottom: (1) in a westward direction – across the Ukraine – into the Mediterranean, and (2) in an eastward
direction – running from Central Asia across Mongolia – into China (Graph: Tubi and Dayan, pers. comm.).
Remarkably, the onset of RCC conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean at approx. 6600 calBC (Fig. 2) is
roughly contemporaneous with the intensification of westward dispersal of Neolithic communities (Weninger
and Clare 2011). In contrast, although based only on a preliminary interpretation of the earliest known
radiocarbon ages from the sites of Ulucak (Çilingiroğlu 2009, Çilingiroğlu et al., 2012) and Çukurici (Horejs,
2008; Horejs, 2012; Galik and Horejs 2011), it has recently been implied that earliest Neolithic settlements on
the western Anatolian coast may have been founded as early as the turn of the 7th millennium calBC (Özdoğan
2011a: 24–25). If confirmed, this early date would immediately supply a falsification of our basic working
hypothesis, namely that the initial westward dispersal of farming communities could in some way be related to
the onset of cold conditions around 6600 calBC. Obviously, we must be emphatic about the exact dating of these
historical processes in comparison to the exact dating of the climatic processes. Otherwise, the scientific
discourse would a priori be lacking the necessary minimal condition of possible causality. This can only be
judged by close study of the temporal sequence of events.

The first RCC-model component (time interval: 8.2-8.0 ka calBP, Hudson Bay+RCC)
At this point, we must specify more clearly that the climate-hypothesis, corresponding to the two different
climate events (RCC and Hudson Bay outflow) is a bipartite model. The first of these components is the younger
of the two (8.2-8.0 ka calBP) and relates to the abandonment of Çatalhöyük East, which is dated to the onset of
the Hudson Bay outflow at around 8.2 ka calBP. Following the abandonment of the eastern mound, there is an
approximately 200 yr (temporary) desertion of the site. Subsequently, and synchronous both with the end of the
Hudson Bay event as well as the end of the RCC-interval around 8.0 ka calBP, settlement activities are relocated
to the Çatalhöyük West (Fig. 5).

Fig. 5 Radiocarbon Dates from Çatalhöyük (Central Anatolia) in comparison to selected climate records. Upper:
14
C-Data from Çatalhöyük West (N=20) and from Çatalhöyük East (N=141) (Data: Weninger et al. 2009:
Appendix I, Radiocarbon Database). Lower: Greenland GISP2 ice-core δ18O (Grootes et al. 1993); GISP2
potassium (terrestrial [K+]) ion proxy for the Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997; Meeker and Mayewski
2002).
Çatalhöyük
Regarding the potential climatic background for the shift from the East Mound to the West Mound at
Çatalhöyük, and in spite of some criticism of this conclusion (e.g. Asouti 2009; Düring 2011a, b), the climate-
impact hypothesis at this site (Weninger et al. 2005; 2009; Weninger and Clare 2011) has not been adequately
refuted (Fig. 4). An acceptable rebuttal of an RCC-induced switch in settlement location might be provided by
empirical data confirming erosion of uppermost settlement layers (representing some 200 years) on the East
Mound (Biehl et al. 2012). This is an entirely acceptable and indeed far-reaching hypothesis. The necessary test-
data could be provided by the joint seriation of pottery finds from the two mounds. In this respect we note that
the methodology required to identify (and measure the extent of) temporal gaps in pottery sequences, notably
also under conditions when the temporal sequence is incomplete (e.g. due to unexcavated, disturbed or otherwise
missing settlement units) can be achieved using correspondence analysis. For example, this has been
demonstrated for the Early and Middle Bronze Age at Troia (Weninger 2000; 2010). As such, the climate-
hypothesis could be tested by 1) joint seriation of the pottery from both mounds, together with 2) seriation of the
14
(potentially eroded) pottery units from the very edge of the East Mound, in combination with 3) C-data and
dedicated geomorphological studies.

The second RCC-model component (time interval: 8.6-8.2 ka calBP)

The second model is a temporally earlier component that relates to the onset of RCC-conditions (around 6.6 ka
calBC), at which time a number of significant societal changes can be observed within Çatalhöyük East (Level
VI) which may be related to RCC impact (Clare and Weninger 2010) . We will discuss these issues in more
detail below. The focus of our following deliberations relating to this second model component is the potential
contemporaneousness of RCC-onset (around 6.6 ka calBC) and the dispersal of early farming communities out
of the Konya plain westwards – via the Turkish Lake District – to the Aegean coast, perhaps parallel with level
VI at Çatalhöyük East. As emphasized by Duru (2012:29) the cultural lifestyle of the Neolithic communities in
the Lake District is clearly different from that of the Konya Plain (most notably in terms of settlement
infrastructure and pottery style). This would imply that direct population movement, let alone migration for
climatic reasons, is a most unlikely model. In comparison, the cultural similarities between the Lake District and
the Turkish West coast are readily apparent (Duru 2012). Therefore, the main question pertaining to this second
RCC-model component can be formulated as follows: When and why did earliest farming communities move to
the Turkish west coast? Following a review of the chronological background, we proceed to consider endemic
warfare and conflict as a potential trigger in this dispersal process.

To this end we will now test the hypothesis that the appearance of farming communities along the Aegean
litterol was related to the rapid onset of extreme climate conditions (RCC). Irrelevant of their origin we may
expect that these contemporaneous communities moved equally rapidly to these coastal locations. This would be
in accordance with a climatically driven coastal-refugium-model (i.e. “Go to the Coast = Go West”) as an
explanation for Neolithic dispersal. Accordingly, in the course of the RCC-period the Neolithic population in
Central Anatolia may have been attracted by the (presumably) milder conditions at the coast and (plausibly)
more reliable water sources (Weninger and Clare 2011). Unfortunately even the chronological component of
this very basic question (when did they move?) still remains unresolved. This uncertainty simply reflects the fact
 14
that all previous C-ages from the relevant coastal sites (e.g. Ulucak, Çukuriçi Höyük, Yesilova) have been
measured on (potentially old) charcoal.

14
Just recently, however, a new set of C-ages for the very oldest layers of Ulucak has been published
(Çilingiroğlu et al. 2012: Appendum: 153). Since these new 14C-ages were measured on short-lived samples,
this data has the potential of providing the requested dating results at high-resolution. The excavators
(Çilingiroğlu et al. 2012: Appendum: 153) comment as follows on the new 14C-ages: "Relying on this new data,
it can be suggested that the earliest settlement at Ulucak was founded sometime between 6760-6600 calBC".
These readings are so close in time with the estimated onset of RCC-conditions around 6600 calBC that - prior to
continuing with our main topic - we now take on the challenge of testing the chronological relevance of the
climate-induced dispersal hypothesis.

Ulucak
The radiocarbon data from Ulucak are listed in table 2. In total, 38 14C-ages are available for analysis from this
14
site, the majority of which were processed using the C-AMS-technique by the Laboratory of Beta Analytics
(Lab-Code: Beta), and three samples were dated using the conventional 14C-ß-decay technique at the University
of Cologne (Lab Code: KN). Most of the 14C-ages were measured on potentially long-lived charcoal, which sets
a lower limit of ~50-100 yrs to the dating precision attainable for most of the samples. Fortunately, however, for
the very oldest layers (Ulucak VI) a sub-set of N=5 14C-ages on short-lived (annual) samples of emmer wheat is
available (Tab.2). The analysis of these short-lived dates is especially promising for testing the climate
hypothesis, since samples all derive from the architectural features of Level VI in grid L13, i.e. the very earliest
14
settlement layers at Ulucak. The C-dated features include two adjacent buildings (42 and 43), each with a
stone-paved hearth and a red-painted plaster floor, for which two to three renewal phases are documented
(Çilingiroğlu 2011: 68). Level VI is of further special interest as it is distinguished from subsequent occupations
by a complete lack of pottery both inside and outside buildings 42 and 43, over a total area of ~10 x 10 m. Here
it is stated that "even if our future excavations recover pottery pieces from the levels, containers from fired clay
are clearly not integral part of the daily life at this early stage" (Çilingiroğlu et al. 2012: 149). It is further noted
that there is a complete absence of all characteristic objects of subsequent Levels V and IV, such as stamps,
figurines, clay weights, and sling missiles (Çilingiroğlu et al. 2012. 149). Also in sharp contrast with the younger
settlement phases, only low amounts of Melian obsidian and very few marine shells have so far been recovered
from Level VI deposits (Çilingiroğlu et al. 2012. 149). Of particular importance for the climate-hypothesis-testing
is the observation by Çilingiroğlu (2011: 75) that "the building with red floors was probably covered with sterile
soil as it was no longer in use". From this observation we deduce the necessity in the 14C-analysis to allow for
the possibility of a finite interruption (of whatever time extent: days to decades) in the stratigraphic sequence
between Layers VI and V.
Fig. 6 Upper: Optimised Linear Stratigraphic 14C-Age model for Ulucak (Levels VI-V) based on stratified 14C-
ages according to sample depth (cf. Tab.2) against INTCAL09 calibration curve (thin line; Reimer et al. 2009)
and INTCAL09 raw data (bar length ± 1 σ). These data are compared with (bottom) Greenland GISP2 ice-core
δ18O record (Grootes et al. 1993) as proxy for North Atlantic air temperature, and LC21 foraminifera data
[percent warm species] as proxy for the Sea Surface Temperature in the Aegean (Rohling et al. 2002). A
comparison of these data sets shows that initial Layer VI at Ulucak was founded around 6630 calBC, at the very
onset of RCC-conditions (as documented in LC21). The transition Ulucak V-IV dates to 6000 calBC, close to the
close of RCC, i.e. during the final stage of the 8.2 ka calBP event sensu strictu (Hudson Bay outflow). Ulucak
14
C-data: Çilingiroglu 2009; Çilingiroglu 2011; Çilingiroğlu et al. 2012).
The applied archaeological model (Fig. 6) incorporates recorded metric depths of dated samples at the site (Tab.
2). As such, results from this analysis are independent of given architectural Layers (Tab.2, column 4).
Subsequently, we applied the method of optimised Gaussian Monte Carlo Wiggle Matching (oGMCWM:
Horejs and Weninger in press). This allows us to identify an optimal age-depth model for the data. Main
results and insights from Fig. 6 are as follows:

• If data analysis is restricted to the 14

C-ages from Layers VI-V, data supports a linear age-depth model with
optimal average slope of 288 [m/yr].

• The majority of charcoal samples from intermediate layers (Ulucak VI-Va) have calendar ages that are in
agreement with the age-depth model.

• As indicated in table 2 (Comments) a small number (N=7) of 14C-ages on charcoal samples are not in
agreement with the linear age-depth model. This data was not included in the analysis, either since the measured
14
C-ages are clear outliers (Beta-250263; Beta-223545)), have statistically unacceptable extreme values (Beta-
250266; Beta-269728; Beta-2697272), have a large standard deviations (Beta-223540) or were measured on a
marine sample (Beta-212087) for which a precise marine reservoir correction could not be applied.

• As indicated by arrows, a number of charcoal samples clearly show an “old-wood-effect” in the range of ~ 100
yrs. A similar age-shift may be necessary for many of the other charcoal samples, but the present stratigraphic
age-depth model does not preside over sufficient age-resolution to identify (or quantify) these effects.

• Of special note are the (N=5) short-lived samples (Beta-317538; Beta-317539; Beta-317542; Beta-317543;
Beta-317544) from oldest layers (Ulucak VI) which are all characterized by statistically highly consistent 14C-
ages.

• Considering this age-depth model, samples from Layer VI have an overall time range of 6640-6500 calBC.
The subset of short-lived samples provides dates with only a small temporal spread centred around 6630 calBC.
This is in accordance with the equally small variations in stratigraphic depth of these samples, between 213.16 m
(Beta-317538) and 213.29 m (Beta-317543) (Tab. 2).

To ensure that the calendric dates derived for the (N=5) deepest samples from Layer VI are not distorted (i.e.
age–shifted) due to their integration into an otherwise largely charcoal-based stratigraphic age-depth model, we
have run an additional case study with results shown in Fig. 7. The oGMCWM-model is based on the
precondition that all 5 samples were collected from the same deposit, in this case the remains of two buildings
(42 and 43). These buildings lie in extremely close stratigraphic and temporal proximity so that the measured
variations in stratigraphic depth (~ 13 cm; cf. Tab.2) for the dated samples are unlikely to represent more than a
few decades. Furthermore, the red-painted plaster floors show evidence for two to three renewal phases, each
with a thickness of one centimetre. The plaster floor in Building 42 appears to be slightly older Çilingiroğlu
(2011: 68). Hence the (annual-growth) study samples are likely to stem from different years. Although the 14C-
ages are statistically indistinguishable, due to their likely different calendar age it is not possible to replace these
14 14
C-ages by their weighted C-scale average (7818 ± 18 BP, p=12 %;). In order to arrive at a calendric-scale
average (i.e. un-differentiated) age for these samples we have applied the oGMCWM-method. This involves (1)
the artificial separation of the samples by 5 years on the calendric time-scale, thus providing better graphic
visability of the individual 14C-ages, and (2) shuffling the calendric age of each sample randomly back and forth
by a Gaussian age distribution with width σ = ± 20 yrs. Fig. 7 shows the histogram of best-fit years attained after
2000 iterations. It has a centre at 6630 calBC and a width at 95%-confidence of 32 yrs. Allowing for an (also
error-prone) 20 yr offset between the burning of the buildings and their construction this suggests that the
settlement was founded at 6650 ± 35 calBC (95% confidence). As shown in figure 8, similar results have been
obtained from a geomorphological core taken at Çukuriçi Höyük (Horejs and Weninger, in press), albeit that
results are perhaps obscured due to the dating of charcoal samples. We emphasise that work at Çukuriçi Höyük
is still in progress and chronological results from this site must be considered preliminary (Fig. 8 and Tab. 1).

Fig. 7 Top: Monte Carlo Wiggle Matching of short-lived samples from Ulucak (Layer VI) based on random
Gaussian shuffling of 14C-ages (N=10000 iterations) within an interval 0 ± 20 yrs, against INTCAL09 calibration
curve (thin line; Reimer et al. 2009) and INTCAL09 raw data (bar length ± 1 σ). Bottom: Eastern Aegean LC21-
core foraminifera data [percent warm/cold species] as proxy for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations in the
Aegean (Rohling et al. 2002) and GISP2 potassium (terrestrial [K+]) record as proxy for the intensity of the
Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997; Meeker and Mayewski 2002). The probability distribution of best-fit
ages for Ulucak Layer VI 14C-ages has Gaussian shape with median 6630 ± 32 calBC (95%). Allowing for an
(error-prone) 20 yr age difference between initial settlement and dated samples the settlement was founded at
6650 ± 35 calBC (95%), i.e. synchronous with the onset of RCC-conditions (shaded). Note: LC21 age-model
has a dating precision of 100 yrs (68%) in this interval (cf. text). Ulucak 14C-data after Çilingiroğlu (2009;
2011) and Çilingiroğlu et al. (2012).
However, even if an earlier colonisation of Western Anatolia is confirmed by future investigations, this will not
detract from the significance of a temporal coincidence between the onset of RCC-conditions, as documented in
LC21 (Figs. 5 and 6), and an apparently intensified Neolithic expansion westwards from the core area of
14
Neolithisation. For later reference purposes, Fig. 9 provides a graphic overview of the calibrated C-data
available for selected important sites in the Turkish Late District and Southeast Europe.

To complete this section, Fig. 10 shows the temporal position of Ulucak and Çukuriçi Höyük, again in relation to
selected sites in Central and Western Anatolia and Southeast Europe, but here in schematic context along with
14
dating results based on a (data-critical) combination of C-ages with pottery style synchronisms. When
combined, the emerging picture is that the spread of early farming from Anatolia to Southeast Europe is
presently best explained by a bipartite migration model that combines an initial refugium colonisation of the
Turkish West Coast (~6650 calBC), with a subsequent delayed secondary expansion (~ 6100 calBC) into
Southeast Europe.

Fig. 8 Çukuriçi Höyük, preliminary stratigraphic age-depth model based on geomorphological coring by Helmut
Brückner (University Cologne, Department of Geography) at the west edge of the tell mound (Horejs and
Weninger in press). Upper: Core depth: the deepest 14C-age (charcoal: UGAMS-6043; cf. Tab.1) for which
archaeological deposits are visible in the core dates to 6480 calBC. Lower: Greenland GISP2 ice-core δ18O
record (Grootes et al. 1993) as proxy for North Atlantic air temperature and GISP2 potassium (terrestrial [K+])
record as proxy for the intensity of the Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997; Meeker and Mayewski 2002).
Graph from Horejs and Weninger in press, with data reproduced in Tab.1.

Fig. 9. Upper: Dispersion diagrams showing summed calibrated 14C-ages (mainly charcoal) for selected sites in
the Turkish Lake District and Southeast Europe. For methodological reasons these diagrams show overall
calendric-scale spread of dating probability. Higher dating resolution for Ulucak and Çukuriçi Höyük is attained
using GMCWM (cf. Figs. 6, 7, 8). Lower: Greenland GISP2 ice-core δ18O record (Grootes et al. 1993) as
proxy for North Atlantic air temperature, and GISP2 potassium (terrestrial [K+]) record as proxy for the intensity
of the Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997; Meeker and Mayewski 2002). Note: According to pottery
synchronisation with Karanovo I, 14C-ages (charcoal) from Hoca Çeşme IV appear too old by up to a few
hundred yrs; in comparison the 14C-ages from younger phases (Hoca Çeşme II-III) correspond well with 14C-
ages available for Karanovo I. Data source: Reingruber and Thissen (2004; with further references)
Fig. 10 Absolute Chronology for selected sites from West Turkey and Southeast Europe based on a combination
of 14C-data and pottery style synchronisms. Graph adapted from Krauß (2011:Fig.8) with up-dated age-models
for Çatalhöyük, Ulucak, Çukuriçi Höyük, and Hoca Çeşme according to Figs. 5-9 (this paper), and also showing
Rapid Climate Change interval (~6600-6000 calBC) and Hudson Bay event (~6200-6000 calBC).

Abrupt climate chnage and conflict: Causality matters

Initially, associations of archaeological evidence for conflict from the Late Neolithic (c. 6600-6000 calBC) – to
be presented in the following sections – and Neolithic dispersal during RCC is based purely on temporal
coincidence. Questions of causality remain to be discussed. Certainly, this is no easy task, especially as we are
now increasingly aware of the non-linear nature of (prehistoric) socio-economic systems, their endemic
instability and inherent lack of privileging concepts such as stability and cumulative evolution towards
increasing complexity (McGlade 1995; McGlade and van der Leeuw 1997; McGlade and Garnsey 2006).
Instead, human systems are known to be driven by self-organizational processes and underlying attractors.
Nevertheless, consideration of the nature of conflict among tribal (pre-state) societies does provide some
significant insights for our discussion of the significance of early warfare for Neolithic dispersal in the 7th
millennium calBC. As we shall see, tribal conflict can differ considerably from our own common
(mis)conceptions of war, and here especially where (climate-related) resource shortfalls are concerned.

In the case of modern societies, it is frequently stated that there will be an increase in conflict and war due to
environmental stress as a result of anthropogenic-induced climate change (Homer-Dixon 1999). Significantly,
crucial components of these scenarios are often associated with impacts of resource shortages:

• A sharp drop in food-crop production could lead to strife between urban and rural dwellers or between
nomads and sedentary farmers;
• Environmental stress might shift the balance of power among communities, producing power
instabilities that cause war;
• As damage to the economic system increases so does the gap between rich and poor, and the latter
might confront the former for a fairer share of wealth;
• Environmental stress could cause the gradual impoverishment of societies which would aggravate class
and ethnic cleavages, undermine liberal regimes, and spawn insurgencies.
Initially, although one might think that these scenarios would apply equally to all types of socio-economic
systems – be these modern states or small chiefdoms – it has recently been demonstrated that resource shortfalls
and economic factors are not convincing reasons for prolonged or permanent wars between tribal communities
(Helbling 2006: 544–545). In fact, most tribal wars have no economic background at all, and any resource
shortfalls are usually a consequence (and not a trigger) of conflict. Land annexation and the plundering and
robbing of resources is not usually undertaken to alleviate resource deficits on the part of the aggressor, but it is a
strategy aimed at weakening the opposition of the adversary. Only the frequency of these wars is occasionally
influenced by economic factors, particularly in cases where there are inequalities between different groups in
their possession or access to certain goods (Helbling 2006: 544). Similarly, the intensity of war can increase in
the wake of migrations and/or the regional agglomeration of population groups, e.g. due to crop failures or the
territorial expansion of stronger neighbours, i.e. at times when the prevailing balance of power comes under
threat (Helbling 2006: 290–291). Further, it is observed that an aggressor frequently times his attack to benefit
from a weak opponent, e.g. during epidemics, at times of low population growth, or when new alliances and
hierarchies are emerging.

The fear of natural disasters is perhaps the only way that events such as droughts or severe winters, for example
associated with Rapid Climate Change, may contribute to an increase in tribal warfare (cf. Ember and Ember
1992). However, this assumption remains controversial, particularly ideas relating to preventive wars (Helbling
2006: 243). Although earlier studies have suggested that there is a high correlation between conflict and the fear
of approaching environmental disasters, particularly those which might lead to food shortages, it is also argued
that foreseeable (and unforeseeable) disasters have always been a constant threat for societies for which many
other types of buffering strategies are available. In other words, war would be only one of many other (risk-
minimising) strategies that might be adopted (Helbling 2006: 241–244). Instead, principal causes for
confrontations between rival groups are often power struggles over territorial rights and access to trade
networks (Helbling 2006: 285), as well as cultural triggers which include revenge and retribution, issues of
personal reputation (e.g. head-hunting), and other ritual acts associated with aggression and armed confrontation,
including initiation rites (Helbling 2006: 307, 319, 324–327).

In summary, things are not as clear-cut as one might first imagine. Wars are not waged due to resource
shortages, and although (climate-induced) shortfalls may lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of
violence, this is more likely related to the timing of attacks to coincide with a weakened adversary or with
related events leading to imbalances in local power regimes (Fig. 11). Although the fear of natural disasters
could act as a catalyst for conflict, it is unlikely that this particular buffering strategy was any more often
implemented than numerous (non-bellicose) others. It is more conceivable that the true background for many
Neolithic conflicts was anchored firmly in territorial disputes, ritual behaviour or in issues of revenge, and/or
promoting personal reputation.
Fig. 11 Schematic representation of the peripheral (but still discernible) influence of RCC-induced impacts
(small italics & dotted lines) on Neolithic conflict scenarios in the 7th millennium calBC. Dominant triggers for
conflict are politically motivated expansion and culturally anchored violence (revenge, reputation, initiation rites
etc.). Abrupt climate change can influence directly (increase) the intensity and frequency of conflict (+) through
a) migrations triggered by disaster-induced displacement of populations (e.g. power vacuums and new balances
of power) and b) physical (and political) weakening of adversaries.

Territoriality and Neolithic dispersal

Territorial disputes are certainly one area which merits further consideration with respect to Neolithisation.
Although demographic pressure is often attributed to the dispersal of (and conflict between) early farming
communities, sufficient pressure was unlikely in Anatolia at least until the Pottery Neolithic, i.e. from the early
7th millennium calBC (Özdoğan 2010:54). However, even at these times there was arguably never a true scarcity
of good fertile land. Interestingly, ethnographic studies have demonstrated that when it comes to the foundation
of new settlements, primary pulling factors are usually political aspirations (Helbling 2006: 239–240). New
villages are rarely founded based on economic considerations alone. In all cases, strategic locations, for example
along main thoroughfares or at key junctions, are of real significance, especially when territories incorporate
amenable sources of natural raw materials. For this reason, territorial disputes are considerably more likely in
sort-after areas than on the periphery where population density is lower.

Political territorial expansion may itself have been driven by changing paradigms in Anatolian LN society.
Indications of these trends are particularly evident at Çatalhöyük East from Level VI onwards. It is of note that
Level VI is in extremely close chronological proximity to the onset of the 6.6-6.0 ka calBC RCC-interval
(Weninger and Clare 2011: 18–19). Most conspicuous developments detected in this and later occupation
phases at this site involve an apparent increase in social competition. This is indicated by such activities as
public feasting that would have involved social exchange and strong ritual aspects; the depiction of hunting and
baiting scenes in paintings applied to house walls, perhaps showing the acquisition of spiritual power from wild
animals; and increased evidence for specialization and the separation of male and female work and identity
(Hodder 2006). This image of changing LN society at Çatalhöyük is further illustrated by parallel developments
in architectural traditions which see a break in previous building continuity and streetless clusters of houses, with
the emergence of open (public) spaces within the settlement and the construction of distinct and separate
neighbourhoods which may imply some form of corporate community controlling of the access of non-residents
(Düring 2011b: 116).
At this point we conclude that politically motivated territorial expansion was potentially one important driving
force behind Neolithisation, and that – on occasion – this type of diffusion may (or may not) have been favoured
by environmental (climate-induced) stress, i.e. through weakened adversaries (cf. Fig. 11). On the other hand,
we also believe that we can distinguish a further cause for conflict in the archaeological record, one that is more
closely linked to impacts of abrupt climate change. This was probably related to power imbalances resulting
from the migration of displaced groups, for example due to famines and epidemics. In the following, and in order
to demonstrate these assumptions, we return to the archaeological evidence, firstly from the so called Neolithic
colony of Hoca Çeşme in Turkish Thrace (Özdoğan 1998, 2007; Parzinger and Özdoğan 1995: 14–15) and
secondly from the Turkish Lakes District (Clare et al. 2008).

Politically motivated expansion: Hoca Çeşme

Hoca Çeşme is a Neolithic settlement located in what is today Turkish Thrace. In spite of earlier conclusions
which place basal layers (Phase IV) of this site in the mid-7th millennium calBC (Özdoğan 1998: 440; Özdoğan
2011b: 421) closer scrutiny of the available radiocarbon ages may suggest that the settlement was in fact a
markedly later foundation. Considering that radiocarbon ages were made on charcoal, and in view of the large
amounts of this material required for conventional dating, effects of old wood are likely. This may also explain
the significant spread of absolute ages from Phase IV contexts. Instead, we posit that basal layers at Hoca Çeşme
may actually post-date 6200 calBC and are more likely contemporaneous with Karanovo I (c. 6000 calBC).
Remarkably, this is a conclusion which corresponds with previous findings by V. Nikolov (2002: 675, 2007:
183–184) who has proposed that the inhabitants of Hoca Çeşme were colonists from West Anatolia who settled
in territories already inhabited by Karanovo I populations (Nikolov 1998: 83; 2002: 675). Although no
Karanovo culture sites are known from the immediate vicinity of Hoca Çeşme, material from later phases of the
site show clear signs of acculturation and assimilation with Karanovo culture, most evident in the appearance of
painted pottery (Karul and Bertram 2005) and the adoption of architecture (rectangular wattle-and-daub
structures) in Hoca Çeşme Phase II (approx. Karanovo I/II; Karul and Bertram 2005) characteristic of sites
from inland Thrace. In this context, mention must be made of recent excavations at the site of Aşağı Pınar (also
Turkish Thrace), some 140 km north of Hoca Çeşme where pottery of distinct Karanovo I type has been
discovered in deepest layers (Aşağı Pınar: AP-7 and AP-8) (Özdoğan, E. 2011:214).

Hoca Çeşme is situated on a limestone hill near the mouth of the Maritza River, currently five kilometres from
the Aegean though during the Neolithic on the edge of a large gulf and prevailing over a natural harbour
connected to the Aegean via a narrow channel (Özdoğan 1998: 437). In addition to this position in the
landscape, described as the most strategic location for any sort of interaction between the Aegean and the littoral
plains of Thrace (Özdoğan 1998: 437), Hoca Çeşme was surrounded from its earliest phase (Hoca Çeşme IV)
by a massive stone wall. According to Nikolov (2002: 674, 2007: 183–184) this was to protect its inhabitants
from hostile Karanovo I groups already living in the region. The wall itself was erected on bedrock which had
been meticulously levelled prior to construction. In the excavated area the wall is 1.2 metres thick and in places
was preserved to a height of 1.0 metre. The superstructure of the wall was probably made of wood. A line of
postholes dug into the bedrock along the inner face of the wall suggest that there was also a wooden palisade that
was perhaps connected to this superstructure (Özdoğan 1998: 439–440). Significantly, a fair number of sling
missiles [...] were recovered along the wall (Özdoğan 1998: 440). In our view, these findings fail to support the
interpretation expressed by Düring (2011a: 72) who denies the defensive function of this structure and instead
suggests that it only demarks a boundary around the settlement. The wall remained in use, albeit with minor
alterations, until the end of Hoca Çeşme Phase II when it was destroyed in a major conflagration, which also
marks the end of this settlement phase at the site.

In summary, Hoca Çeşme appears to be the perfect example for politically motivated expansion in the Early
Neolithic of Southeast Europe. The available evidence, from the strategically important location, through the
fortification, to the sling missiles and large-scale destruction in Phase II, all point to conflict potential and
physical assault associated with expansion activities of Neolithic groups in the late 7th and early 6th millennium
calBC. Further, if the foundation of Hoca Çeşme did not take place until the end of the 7th millennium calBC, it
is perhaps worth considering that (local) Karanovo I populations may have been weakened by late impacts of the
RCC-interval, thus rendering them less able to resist infiltration into their territories from the outside and the
erection of the fortified settlement at Hoca Çeşme.

Climate-induced conflicts
Some concern has been expressed recently regarding some of our earlier conclusions (Clare et al. 2008) relating
to Neolithic warfare in the Turkish Lakes District (Düring 2011a; Ferguson in press) and its
contemporaneousness with abrupt climate change (RCC) in the 7th millennium calBC. The evidence from
Kuruçay Höyük (Level 11) and Hacılar (I) indeed post-dates the RCC-interval by some centuries. Additionally,
new insights by E. Rosenstock (2010) have recently thrown into question the validity of the younger Hacılar
chronology, with a reversal of Hacılar II and I phases. Additionally, the status of the Hacılar (I) fortress is now
questioned, Rosenstock instead positing a conglomorative architectural style for this phase, more in line with
building structures at nearby Kuruçay (level 7), Çatalhöyük West and Can Hasan I (2B). Consequently, if these
conclusions are correct, Hacılar I and II would both post-date RCC. However, this criticism certainly does not
hold for indications of Late Neolithic warfare from the sites of Höyücek, Bademağacı, as well as from the earlier
level (VI) at Hacılar.

Among the most convincing signs for conflict in Pisidia during these earliest stages of Neolithic occupation (c.
6600-6200 calBC) are the documented large scale destruction of a religious complex at Höyücek Höyük, with
subsequent chronological hiatus (Duru 1995: 486–487; Duru and Umurtak 2005: 230), and burnt structures at
Bademağacı (ENII/3), one of which contained the remains of eight human individuals (Duru 2005);
significantly, one of the victims of this fire also shows evidence for perimortem cranial trauma thought to be
indicative of a blow to the head (Erdal and Erdal 2012). At Höyücek, the conflagration which resulted in the
destruction of the complex at the end of the so-called Shrine Phase also preserved large numbers of sling
missiles on the floor of one of the structures (building 3), and at Bademağacı (ENII/4-3) there is tentative
evidence for the existence of a fortification structure (Duru 2002; 2004; 2005; Umurtak 2007) which if
confirmed would place this edifice within the interval 6400-6200 calBC.

The extent to which disaster-induced displacement of Neolithic groups could have led to conflict and destruction
at southwest Anatolian sites can only be gauged from deliberation of the geographical position of Pisidia
combined with a conspectus of the situation in adjacent parts at the same time. Certainly, and as already
identified by Özdoğan (2011a: 26), this date (approx. 6400 calBC) corresponds with a dense movement of
Neolithic communities westwards, bringing the so-called monochrome tradition to the Aegean coast. If this
movement was indeed associated with the migration of entire groups and communities, this would have been
accompanied – or also even triggered – by considerable socio-political perturbations. Due to its geographical
position the Turkish Lake District would most certainly have been a likely transit zone for groups moving from
areas further east, e.g. from the Konya Plain and beyond.

Remarkably, there are indications that the Konya Plain did experience some degree of change in settlement
density around the mid-7th millennium calBC. According to available data (Tay Database 2012) in the Late
Neolithic (6600-6000 calBC) the plain had become a less attractive location compared to early periods, while a
new focus of settlement activity appears to have developed on the higher ground in the west. Although
settlement continued on the plain at Çatalhöyük East, the beginning of this period corresponds with Level VI at
this site, a time in which a number of socio-economic changes are documented (see above). Presently, it cannot
be ruled out that these developments were not in some way linked to adaptation processes in reaction to climate
forcing (Weninger and Clare 2011: 19). Certainly, the Konya Plain can be referred to as a vulnerable
landscape, particularly at times of climate fluctuation (Clare and Weninger 2010). In addition to its harsh
winters and hot summers, rainfall is not always adequate for non-irrigated crops. This factor alone could have
spelled disaster for Neolithic communities for whom this technology was either unknown or not well developed.
Finally, further afield, in eastern parts of Anatolia and in northern Syria, sites such as Mersin-Yumuktepe and
Tell Sabi-Abyad have also provided signs of (potentially climate-related) disruption (Clare et al. 2010; van der
Plicht et al. 2011), albeit that these developments are centred around 6200 calBC, i.e. some two to three
centuries later.

Conclusions
While Pre-Pottery-Neolithic (PPN) values were based on sharing, dissemination of knowledge, and peaceful co-
existence, thus promoting the initial spark of Neolithisation, this paradigm appears to have lost its validity by the
mid-7th millennium calBC, when Neolithic lifeways were disseminating westwards from the core area towards
the Aegean. This latter period is simultaneous with impacts of a Rapid Climate Change interval (6600-6000
calBC) and an increase in evidence for inter-group violence at some Neolithic sites. However, in light of the
insights gained from ethnographic studies, it appears unlikely that warfare was waged due to resource shortfalls.
Instead, periods of environmental and economic stress are identified merely as periods in which conflict
frequency and intensity may have increased, but only to profit from a weakened adversary. Therefore, even
though periods with documented climate stress may correlate with more pronounced outbreaks of inter-group
violence this fails to tell us anything of the true reasons for conflict. Instead, emerging warfare in the 7th
millennium calBC is probably more likely associated with aspects of territoriality. Archaeological evidence
suggests that at least two different types of conflict are distinguishable at this time: 1) clashes arising from
politically motivated expansion, likely lacking a climatic background, and 2) conflict resulting from political
power imbalances, perhaps associated and/or intensified due to drought or epidemics in consequence of RCC-
impacts.
Acknowledgements
Research presented in this paper was undertaken in the frame of CRC 806, Project F1, funded by the German
Research Foundation (DFG). We are extremely grateful to Vassil Nikolov (Bulgarian Academy of Sciences,
Sofia) and Raiko Krauß (University Tübingen) for fruitful discussions and new insights. We would like to
express our sincere gratitude to Markus Reindel and Mareike Mölders for the generous invitation to Sanlıurfa
and the opportunity to present our results at the meeting of Research Cluster I / German Archaeological Institute
(DAI). Special thanks are due to Amit Tubi and Uri Dayan (University of Jerusalem, Israel) for invaluable
information and sharing figures (Figs. 3 and 4).
Time-Scales, Terminology, and Dating Precision

Age-models and chronologies discussed in this paper are based on tree-ring calibrated 14C-ages.
Numeric ages are given on the calendric time scale using [calBP] units, with AD1950 = 0 calBP as
reference year, using CalPal software (Weninger and Jöris 2008) and the INTCAL09 data set
(Reimer et al. 2009). In the present paper, all GISP2-ages are shifted 40 yrs younger than published
(Grootes et al. 1993), according to Weninger et al. (2006), by which precise (annual) agreement
with the recounted Greenland ice-core GICC05 age model (Vinther et al. 2006) is achieved.

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.
Tab.1 Radiocarbon Ages for Çukuriçi Höyük (Horejs and Weninger, in press)
Tab.2 Radiocarbon Ages for Ulucak (Çilingiroğlu 2009; Çilingiroğlu 2011; Çilingiroğlu et al. 2011)
Figure Captions

Fig. 1 A schematic illustration of winds and pressure systems during negative and positive NAO phases (after
Petersen 2010: fig. 4.24). Also shown is a simplified representation (without scale) of composite precipitation
anomalies as calculated by Cullen et al. (2002: fig.2) based on data collated between January 1979 and
December 1998. Grey shading denotes increased winter precipitation while white-coloured areas indicate drier
conditions. Periods with -NAO (top) are associated with a weak Azores High and a weak Icelandic Low. Strong
westerlies bring wetter conditions to the Mediterranean, particular Iberia, and cold-dry winters to NW-Europe. In
contrast, +NAO (bottom) is characterised by a more intense Icelandic Low and stronger Azores High. These
atmospheric conditions are associated with north-westerly storm tracks which bring milder and wetter winters to
NW-Europe. Remarkably, there are clear teleconnections between the state of the prevailing NAO and the
strength of the Siberian High (SH) over Asia. While +NAO conditions show notable correlations with a weaker
SH, periods with -NAO correspond to a stronger SH in the winter months (e.g. Sahsamanoglou et al. 1991;
Dickson et al. 2000; Gong and Ho 2002).

Fig. 2 Set of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate records showing Holocene Rapid Climate Change (RCC) (for
locations cf. Fig.1). (A) GRIP ice-core δ18O as proxy for air-temperature over Greenland (Grootes et al. 1993),
(B) Sufular Cave δ13C as proxy for tree/steppe vegetation (Fleitmann et al. 2009), (C) Tenaghi Philippon tree
pollen as proxy for tree/non-tree vegetation (Pross et al. 2009), (D) Eastern Mediterranean core LC21, marine
fauna as proxy for SST-variations (seasonal: winter/spring) (Rohling et al. 2002), (E) Eastern Aegean core
LS21, marine fauna as proxy for SST-variations (seasonal: winter/spring) (Marino et al., 2009), (F) Northern
Aegean Core MNB3, PCC=Planktonic Climate Curve as proxy for SST-variations (Geraga et al. 2010), (G)
Gaussian smoothed (200 yr) GISP2 nss [K+] as proxy for the Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997; Meeker and
Mayewski 2002), (H) High-Resolution GISP2 nss [K+] as proxy for the Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997;
Meeker and Mayewski 2002).

Fig. 3 Atmospheric circulation patterns showing the outbreaks of polar cold air masses during the 1968-1969
winter (averaged minimal day temperatures). Top left: prior to outbreak (11-20 January 1969); top right: onset
(15-24 January 1969); bottom left: spell centre (21-30 January 1969); bottom right: Termination (31 January–9
February 1969) (Tubi and Dayan 2012; Graph: Tubi and Dayan, pers. comm.).

Fig. 4 Schematic representation of synoptic atmospheric conditions favouring bitterly cold air outbreaks from the
polar region in times of pronounced Siberian High. Note the occurrence of two corridors for cold air flow
Bottom: (1) in a westward direction – across the Ukraine – into the Mediterranean, and (2) in an eastward
direction – running from Central Asia across Mongolia – into China (Graph: Tubi and Dayan, pers. comm.).

Fig. 5 Radiocarbon Dates from Çatalhöyük (Central Anatolia) in comparison to selected climate records. Upper:
14
C-Data from Çatalhöyük West (N=20) and from Çatalhöyük East (N=141) (Data: Weninger et al. 2009:
Appendix I, Radiocarbon Database). Lower: Greenland GISP2 ice-core δ18O (Grootes et al. 1993); GISP2
potassium (terrestrial [K+]) ion proxy for the Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997; Meeker and Mayewski
2002).

Fig. 6 Upper: Optimised Linear Stratigraphic 14C-Age model for Ulucak (Levels VI-V) based on stratified 14C-
ages according to sample depth (cf. Tab.2) against INTCAL09 calibration curve (thin line; Reimer et al. 2009)
and INTCAL09 raw data (bar length ± 1 σ). These data are compared with (bottom) Greenland GISP2 ice-core
δ18O record (Grootes et al. 1993) as proxy for North Atlantic air temperature, and LC21 foraminifera data
[percent warm species] as proxy for the Sea Surface Temperature in the Aegean (Rohling et al. 2002). A
comparison of these data sets shows that initial Layer VI at Ulucak was founded around 6630 calBC, at the very
onset of RCC-conditions (as documented in LC21). The transition Ulucak V-IV dates to 6000 calBC, close to the
close of RCC, i.e. during the final stage of the 8.2 ka calBP event sensu strictu (Hudson Bay outflow). Ulucak
14
C-data: Çilingiroglu 2009; Çilingiroglu 2011; Çilingiroğlu et al. 2012).

Fig. 7 Top: Monte Carlo Wiggle Matching of short-lived samples from Ulucak (Layer VI) based on random
Gaussian shuffling of 14C-ages (N=10000 iterations) within an interval 0 ± 20 yrs, against INTCAL09 calibration
 curve (thin line; Reimer et al. 2009) and INTCAL09 raw data (bar length ± 1 σ). Bottom: Eastern Aegean LC21-
core foraminifera data [percent warm/cold species] as proxy for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations in the
Aegean (Rohling et al. 2002) and GISP2 potassium (terrestrial [K+]) record as proxy for the intensity of the
Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997; Meeker and Mayewski 2002). The probability distribution of best-fit
ages for Ulucak Layer VI 14C-ages has Gaussian shape with median 6630 ± 32 calBC (95%). Allowing for an
(error-prone) 20 yr age difference between initial settlement and dated samples the settlement was founded at
6650 ± 35 calBC (95%), i.e. synchronous with the onset of RCC-conditions (shaded). Note: LC21 age-model
has a dating precision of 100 yrs (68%) in this interval (cf. text). Ulucak 14C-data after Çilingiroğlu (2009;
2011) and Çilingiroğlu et al. (2012).

Fig. 8 Çukuriçi Höyük, preliminary stratigraphic age-depth model based on geomorphological coring by Helmut
Brückner (University Cologne, Department of Geography) at the west edge of the tell mound (Horejs and
Weninger in press). Upper: Core depth: the deepest 14C-age (charcoal: UGAMS-6043; cf. Tab.1) for which
archaeological deposits are visible in the core dates to 6480 calBC. Lower: Greenland GISP2 ice-core δ18O
record (Grootes et al. 1993) as proxy for North Atlantic air temperature and GISP2 potassium (terrestrial [K+])
record as proxy for the intensity of the Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997; Meeker and Mayewski 2002).
Graph from Horejs and Weninger in press, with data reproduced in Tab.1.

Fig. 9. Upper: Dispersion diagrams showing summed calibrated 14C-ages (mainly charcoal) for selected sites in
the Turkish Lake District and Southeast Europe. For methodological reasons these diagrams show overall
calendric-scale spread of dating probability. Higher dating resolution for Ulucak and Çukuriçi Höyük is attained
using GMCWM (cf. Figs. 6, 7, 8). Lower: Greenland GISP2 ice-core δ18O record (Grootes et al. 1993) as
proxy for North Atlantic air temperature, and GISP2 potassium (terrestrial [K+]) record as proxy for the intensity
of the Siberian High (Mayewski et al. 1997; Meeker and Mayewski 2002). Note: According to pottery
synchronisation with Karanovo I, 14C-ages (charcoal) from Hoca Çeşme IV appear too old by up to a few
hundred yrs; in comparison the 14C-ages from younger phases (Hoca Çeşme II-III) correspond well with 14C-
ages available for Karanovo I. Data source: Reingruber and Thissen (2004; with further references)

Fig. 10 Absolute Chronology for selected sites from West Turkey and Southeast Europe based on a combination
of 14C-data and pottery style synchronisms. Graph adapted from Krauß (2011: Fig.8) with up-dated age-models
for Çatalhöyük, Ulucak, Çukuriçi Höyük, and Hoca Çeşme according to Figs. 5-9 (this paper), and also showing
Rapid Climate Change interval (~6600-6000 calBC) and Hudson Bay event (~6200-6000 calBC).

Fig. 11 Schematic representation of the peripheral (but still discernible) influence of RCC-induced impacts
(small italics & dotted lines) on Neolithic conflict scenarios in the 7th millennium calBC. Dominant triggers for
conflict are politically motivated expansion and culturally anchored violence (revenge, reputation, initiation rites
etc.). Abrupt climate change can influence directly (increase) the intensity and frequency of conflict (+) through
a) migrations triggered by disaster-induced displacement of populations (e.g. power vacuums and new balances
of power) and b) physical (and political) weakening of adversaries.

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