Conditional Probability (Example and Exercises, Walpole, 8 Edition)

Conditional probability
(Example and Exercises, Walpole, 8th edition)

The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has
occurred is called a conditional probability, P (BA). P (BA) is read as “the
probability that B occurs given that A occurs” or “the probability of B given A”.
Example
S = {population of adults completed the requirements for a degree}
Employed Unemployed Total

Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900
Example
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs (D) and arrives (A) on time
are as follow:
P(D) = 0.83
P(A) = 0.82
P(D∩A) = 0.78
Find
(a) The probability of arriving on time given that it departed on time
(b) The probability of departing on time given that it arrived on time
The conditional probability P (AB) is an updating of P(A) based on the knowledge

that event B has occurred.
1
(c) What if the flight did not depart on time, and what is the probability that it arrives
on time?
Conditional probability allows for an alteration of the probability of an event in the

light of additional material. The occurrence of A influenced D and this is shown by
the above example. If the occurrence of B has no impact on the occurrence of A in
P (BA), then P (BA) = P(A). This is known as independent event, the occurrence
of A is independent of the occurrence of B.
Two events A and B are independent if and only if
2
Multiplicative Rules
If in an experiment, the events A and B, both occur, then
** the two events, A and B are only independent if
Example
A box containing 20 fuses, 5 are defective. Select 2 fuses and remove, but in
succession without replacing the first, what is the probability of both fuses are
defective?
Example
An electrical system consists of four components as illustrated. The system works if
components A and B work and either of the components C or D work. The reliability
(probability of working) of each component is also shown in the box. Find the
probability that
(a) the entire system works
(b) the component C does not work, given that the entire system works.
Assume that four components work independently.
C
A B 0.8
0.9 0.9
D
0.8
3
Example
Playing cards and the probability of the following event:
Find the probability that event A1, A2 and A3 occurs.
Exercise
In the senior year of a high school graduating class of 100 students, 42 studied
mathematics, 68 studied psychology, 54 studied history, 22 studied both mathematics
and history, 25 studied both mathematics and psychology, 7 studied history but
neither mathematics nor physics, 10 studied all three subjects and 8 did not take any
of the three. If a student is selected at random, find the probability that
(a) a person enrolled in psychology takes all three subjects;
(b) a person not taking psychology is taking both history and mathematics.
Exercise
A manufacturer of flu vaccine is concerned about the quality of its flu serum. Batches
of serum are processed by three different departments having rejection rates of 0.10,
0.08, and 0.12 respectively. The inspections by the three departments are sequential
and independent.
(a) What is the probability that a batch of serum survives the first departmental
inspection but is rejected by the second department?
(b) What is the probability that a batch of serum is rejected by the third department?
4
Bayes’ Rule
(Example and Exercises, Walpole, 8th edition)
Refer to conditional probability. (Lecture 11, pg 29)
Employed Unemployed Total
Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900
Rotary Club 36 12 48
Find the probability of event A; individual selected is a member of Rotary Club.
5
The theorem of total probability is illustrated by the case where the sample space is
partitioned in k subsets,
In the events B1, B2, ….., Bk constitute a partition of the sample space, S, such that
P(Bi) ≠ 0 for i = 1, 2, ….., k then for any event A of S,
Bayes’ Rule
6
Example
The machines make 30%, 45% and 25% respectively. From the past experience, we
know the defective rates as:
Machines Production Defective

B1 30% 2%
B2 45% 3%
B3 25% 2%
Random selection, what is the probability that a product is defective?
Theorem of total probability:
If a product is chosen at random and found to be defective, what is the probability

that it was made by machine B3?
Bayes’ Rule:
7
Exercise
1. From 4 red, 5 green, and 6 yellow apples, how many selections of 9 apples are
possible if 3 of each colour are to be selected?
Exercise
2. Pollution of the rivers in the United States has been a problem for many years.
Consider the following events:
A = {The river is polluted}

B = {A sample of water tested detects pollution}
A = {Fishing permitted}
Assume:
P( A)  0.3 , P( B A)  0.75 , P( B A)  0.20 , P(C A  B)  0.20
P(C A  B)  0.15 , P(C A  B )  0.80 , P(C A  B )  0.90
(a) Find P( A  B  C ) .
(b) Find P( B   C ) .
(c) Find P(C ) .
(d) Find the probability that the river is polluted, given that fishing is permitted and
the sample tested did not detect pollution.

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Conditional probability

(Example and Exercises, Walpole, 8th edition)

Employed Unemployed Total

The conditional probability P (AB) is an updating of P(A) based on the knowledge

Conditional probability allows for an alteration of the probability of an event in the

Two events A and B are independent if and only if

** the two events, A and B are only independent if

Find the probability that event A1, A2 and A3 occurs.

Find the probability of event A; individual selected is a member of Rotary Club.

Machines Production Defective

Random selection, what is the probability that a product is defective?

Theorem of total probability:

If a product is chosen at random and found to be defective, what is the probability

A = {The river is polluted}

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