6/5/2008 - High Risk Bust

Another high risk bust. Boy, these high risk days are always frustrating! I targeted the I-80 area in south-central Nebraska since the model progs -- as well as mesoanalysis data -- suggested the potential for strong tornadoes in this region. Short story: a complete bust for tornadoes. Based on my eyeballs, it appears the storms lacked good juice -- CAPE, which was upwards of 4,500 on the SPC mesoanalysis progs, was either missing or somehow untapped.

I left Lincoln around 11 am under a newly issued PDS tornado watch (perhaps the earliest PDS tor watch I’ve been under?). I headed west toward York, where I met up with Dustin and Victor to look over data at the local Arby’s. Thereafter, I headed to Aurora to get a bit closer to the initiation region and to take a look at last week's EF2 tornado damage.

Tornado damage just south of Aurora, NE.

Convection began to form along the front in south-central Nebraska and I took after it around 2 pm. I intercepted this “stuff” west of Hastings and, after looking at the uninspired storms, was immediately concerned for the day’s tornado prospects. I followed the initial storm up into the Wood River and Cairo areas where I witnessed convection more like you would see in Florida in August than in a June high-risk in Nebraska … argh!

Storm near Wood River, NE.

Backside of undercut storm as it heads north out of Cairo, NE.

I gave up on this convection northwest of Grand Island since it was weakening and screaming off to the north. I then turned my attention to a couple of supercells that had formed in western Kansas (in a horrible environment) and were looking surprisingly good. These storms had already produced a few tornadoes (apparently) and were racing (50+ mph) to the northeast. I decided I could intercept the southern storm south along the KS-NE border near Red Cloud. Unfortunately, by the time I got to the storm, it had “lined out” and was producing nothing more than a picturesque shelf cloud.

Shelf cloud near Nelson, NE. To think this was once a supercell producing tornadoes!

Nebraska wheat and shelf cloud.

Victor taking in the best view of the day.

I stayed ahead of this “shower line” until I reached US 81 where I called it another “high risk” day bust. I took off toward Salina and, on the way south, was rewarded with a very peaceful and beautiful sunset in rural Cloud County Kansas.

Looking northwest toward the setting sun in rural Cloud County, KS.

Looking east from same location ... mammatus from storm northwest of Topeka.