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Papers with SPC-affiliated lead authors, published in formal, refereed journals (e.g., AMS, EJSSM, NWA), alphabetic by author.
Anthony, R.W.*, and P.W. Leftwich Jr.*, 1992: Trends in Severe Local Storm Watch Verification at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [844K PDF]
Baldwin, M.E., and J.S. Kain, 2006: Sensitivity of Several Performance Measures to Displacement Error, Bias, and
Event Frequency. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1271K PDF]
Baldwin, M.E., and J.S. Kain, 2005: Development of an Automated Classification Procedure for Rainfall Systems. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [1377K PDF]
Baldwin, M.E., and J.S. Kain, 2002: Properties of the Convection Scheme in NCEP’s Eta Model that Affect Forecast
Sounding Interpretation. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1615K PDF]
Banacos, P.C.*, and D.M. Schultz, 2004: The Use of Moisture Flux Convergence in Forecasting Convective Initiation: Historical and Operational Perspectives. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4352K PDF]
Beebe, R.G.*, 1959: Notes on Scottsbluff, Nebraska, Tornadoes, 27 June 1955. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [8423K PDF]
Beebe, R.G.*, 1958: Tornado Proximity Soundings. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5530K PDF]
Beebe, R.G.*, 1958: An Instability Line Development as Observed by the Tornado Research Airplane. Published in J. Meteor.. [419K PDF]
Beebe, R.G.*, 1957: The 1956 Tornado Research Airplane Project Data. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3917K PDF]
Beebe, R.G.*, 1956: Tornado Composite Charts. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [1703K PDF]
Beebe, R.G.*, and F.C. Bates*, 1955: A Mechanism for Assisting in the Release of Convective Instability. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [419K PDF]
Bentley, E.S., R.L. Thompson, B.R. Bowers, J.G. Gibbs, and S.E. Nelson, 2021: An Analysis of 2016-18 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the Contiguous United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2942K PDF]
Carbin, G.W.*, M.K. Tippett, S.P. Lillo, and H.E. Brooks, 2016: Visualizing Long-Range Severe Thunderstorm Environment Guidance from CFSv2. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. [5041K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.*, J.B. Cohen, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2018: Simulating Tornado Probability and Tornado Wind Speed Based on Statistical Models. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1737K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.*, R.L. Thompson, S.M. Cavallo, R. Edwards, S.J. Weiss*, J.A. Hart, I.L. Jirak, W.F. Bunting, J.W. Rogers*, S.F. Piltz, A.E. Gerard, A.D. Moore, D.J. Cornish, A.C. Boothe, and J.B. Cohen, 2018: Bridging Operational Meteorology and Academia through Experiential Education: The Storm Prediction Center in the University of Oklahoma Classroom. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [11263K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, H.E. Brooks, and I.L. Jirak, 2017: Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4533K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.*, S.M. Cavallo, M.C. Coniglio, and H.E. Brooks, 2015: A Review of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes and Their Sensitivity in Simulating Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3943K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.*, M.L. VanDenHeuvel, G.W. Carbin*, and D. Bernhardt, 2014: The 5 June 2012 Central Montana Tornado Event. Published in NWA J. Operational Meteor. [2862K PDF]
Cohen, A.E.*, and P. Santos, 2012: South Florida Flash Flooding Events. Published in NWA Electronic J. Operational Meteor. [2008K PDF]
Cook, A.R.*, L.M. Leslie, D.B. Parsons, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2017: The Impact of El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter and Early Spring U.S. Tornado Outbreaks. Published in J. Appl. Meteor. Clim.. [6970K PDF]
Cook, A.R.*, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2008: The Relation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [2915K PDF]
Corfidi, S.F.*, M.C. Coniglio, A.E. Cohen*, and C.M. Mead*, 2016: A Proposed Revision to the Definition of "Derecho". Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [5813K PDF]
Corfidi, S.F.*, R.H. Johns*, and M.A. Darrow, 2016: The Great Basin Derecho of 31 May 1994. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5548K PDF]
Corfidi, S.F.*, S.J. Weiss*, J.S. Kain, S.J. Corfidi*, R.M. Rabin, and J.L. Levit*, 2010: Revisiting the 3-4 April 1974 Super Outbreak of Tornadoes. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [47324K PDF] (PowerPoint presentation; supplemental slideshow)
Corfidi, S.F.*, S.J. Corfidi*, and D.M. Schultz, 2008: Elevated Convection and Castellanus: Ambiguities, Significance, and Questions. Published in Wea. Forecasting [5566K PDF]
Corfidi, S.F.*, S.J. Corfidi*, D.A. Imy*, and A.L. Logan, 2006: A Preliminary Study of Severe Wind-producing MCSs in Environments of Limited Moisture. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4802K PDF]
Corfidi, S.F.*, 2003: Cold Pools and MCS Propagation: Forecasting the Motion of Downwind-Developing MCSs. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3156K PDF] (supplemental slide show, part 1) (supplemental slide show, part 2)
Corfidi, S.F.*, 1999: The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [477K PDF]
Corfidi, S.F.*, 1996: Haze Over The Central And Eastern United States. Published in National Weather Digest; Updated June 2013. [186K HTML] [306K Original PDF]
Corfidi, S.F.*, J.H. Merritt and J.M. Fritsch, 1996: Predicting the Movement of Mesoscale Convective Complexes. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [130K PDF]
Craven, J.P.*, R.E. Jewell, and H.E. Brooks, 2002: Comparison between Observed Convective Cloud-Base Heights and Lifting Condensation Level for Two Different Lifted Parcels. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [286K PDF]
Dial, G.L.*, J.P. Racy*, and R.L. Thompson, 2010: Short-term Convective Mode Evolution along Synoptic Boundaries. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2772K PDF]
Doswell, C.A. III*, L.R. Lemon*, and R.A. Maddox, 1981: Forecaster Training -- A Review and Analysis. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [7162K PDF]
Doswell, C.A. III*, 1980: Synoptic-scale Environments Associated with High Plains Severe Thunderstorms. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [1392K PDF]
Doswell, C.A. III*, 1977: Obtaining Meteorologically Significant Surface Divergence Fields through the Filtering Property of Objective Analysis. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [685K PDF]
 Earnest, B.L., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, and I.L. Jirak, 2024: Part II: Lessons Learned from Predicting Wildfire Occurrence for CONUS Using Deep Learning and Fire Weather Variables. Published in Artif. Intell. Earth Sys.. [2943K PDF]
Earnest, B.L., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, and I.L. Jirak, 2024: Part I: Improving Wildfire Occurrence Prediction for CONUS Using Deep Learning and Fire Weather Variables. Published in Artif. Intell. Earth Sys.. [10521K PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF]
(supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]),
(supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Edwards, R., H.E. Brooks, and H. Cohn, 2021: Changes in Tornado Climatology Accompanying the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Published in J. Appl. Meteor. Clim.. [2250K PDF]
Edwards, R., J.T. Allen, and G.W. Carbin*, 2018: Reliability and Climatological Impacts of Convective Wind Estimations. Published in J. Appl. Meteor. Clim.. [4825K PDF]
Edwards, R., J.G. LaDue, J.T. Ferree, K. Scharfenberg, C. Maier, and W.L. Coulbourne, 2013: Tornado Intensity Estimation: Past, Present and Future. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [1507K PDF]
Edwards, R., A.R. Dean, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2012: Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part III: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [270K PDF]
Edwards, R., 2012: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: A Review of Knowledge in Research and Prediction. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor. [2193K PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2009: Comments on "The North Dakota Tornadic Supercells of 18 July 2004: Issues Concerning High LCL Heights and Evapotranspiration". Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1730K PDF]
Edwards, R., and S.J. Hodanish, 2006: Photographic Documentation and Environmental Analysis of an Intense, Anticyclonic Supercell on the Colorado Plains. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [1671K PDF]
Edwards, R., S.F. Corfidi*, R.L. Thompson, J.S. Evans*, J.P. Craven*, J.P. Racy*, D.W. McCarthy* and M.D. Vescio*, 2002: Storm Prediction Center Forecasting Issues Related to the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1947K HTML] [1724K Original PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 1998: Nationwide Comparisons of Hail Size with WSR-88D Vertically Integrated Liquid Water (VIL) and Derived Thermodynamic Sounding Data. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [234K HTML] [180K Original PDF]
Evans, J.S.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 2000: Examination of Derecho Environments with Proximity Soundings. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [270K HTML] [306K Original PDF]
Evenson, E.C.*, and R.H. Johns*, 1995: Some Climatological and Synoptic Aspects of Severe Weather Development in the Northwestern United States. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [10761K PDF]
Ferguson, E.W.*, F.P. Ostby*, and P.W. Leftwich Jr.*, 1989: Tornado Season of 1986. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev. [764K PDF]
Ferguson, E.W.*, F.P. Ostby*, and P.W. Leftwich Jr.*, 1987: Tornado Season of 1985. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev. [696K PDF]
Ferguson, E.W.*, F.P. Ostby*, P.W. Leftwich Jr.*, and J.E. Hales Jr.*, 1986: Tornado Season of 1984. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev. [930K PDF]
Ferguson, E.W.*, F.P. Ostby*, P.W. Leftwich Jr.*, W.E. Carle*, S.F. Corfidi*, R.G. Cundy*, and W.D. Hirt*, 1985: Tornado Season of 1983. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev. [930K PDF]
Ferguson, E.W.*, J.T. Schaefer*, S.J. Weiss*, L.F. Wilson*, and F.P. Ostby*, 1983: Tornadoes 1982: A Near-Record Year. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev. [1263K PDF]
Flournoy, M.D., A.W. Lyza, A.R. Wade, and J. Fischer, 2024: Observed Relationships between Supercell Mesocyclone Intensity and Evolution, Background Environmental Characteristics, and Cell Mergers. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [15396K PDF]
Foster, D.S.*, 1958: Thunderstorm Gusts Compared with Computed Downdraft Speeds. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [440K PDF]
Foster, D.S.*, and F.C. Bates*, 1956: A Hail Size Forecasting Technique. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6640K PDF]
Gallo, B.T.*, K.A. Wilson, J.J. Choate, K. Knopfmeier, P. Skinner, B. Roberts*, P.L. Heinselman, I.L. Jirak, and A.J. Clark, 2022: Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4328K PDF]
Gallo, B.T.*, J.K. Wolff, A.J. Clark, I.L. Jirak, L.R. Blank, B. Roberts*, Y. Wang, C. Zhang, M. Xue, T. Supinie, L. Harris, L. Zhou, and C. Alexander, 2021: Exploring Convection-Allowing Model Evaluation Strategies for Severe Local Storms Using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Model Core. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3188K PDF]
Gallo, B.T.*, C.P. Kalb, J.H. Gotway, H.H. Fisher, B. Roberts*, I.L. Jirak, A.J. Clark, C. Alexander, and T.L. Jensen, 2019: Initial Development and Testing of a Convection-Allowing Model Scorecard. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5292K PDF]
Gallo, B.T.*, A.J. Clark, B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, I. Jirak, and S.R. Dembek, 2019: Incorporating UH Occurrence Time to Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2272K PDF]
Galway, J.G.*, 1992: Early Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting and Research by the United States Weather Bureau. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2327K PDF]
Galway, J.G.*, 1989: The Evolution of Severe Thunderstorm Criteria within the Weather Service. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [852K PDF]
Galway, J.G.*, 1985: J.P. Finley: The First Severe Storms Forecaster--Part 1 and Part 2. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [734K and 494K PDFs]
Galway, J.G.*, and A.D. Pearson*, 1981: Winter Tornado Outbreaks. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [568K PDF]
Galway, J.G.*, 1977: Some Climatological Aspects of Tornado Outbreaks. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [535K PDF]
Galway, J.G.*, 1975: Relationship of Tornado Deaths to Severe Weather Watch Areas. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [367K PDF]
Garner, J.M.*, 2013: A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor. [1208K PDF]
Garner, J.M.*, 2012: Environments of Significant Tornadoes Occurring within the Warm Sector versus Those Occurring along Surface Baroclinic Boundaries. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor. [1245K PDF]
Grams, J.S., R.L. Thompson, D.V. Snively, J.A. Prentice, G.M. Hodges, and L.J. Reames, 2012: A Climatology and Comparison of Parameters for Significant Tornado Events
in the United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1120K PDF]
Grant, B.N.*, 1995: Elevated Cold-Sector Severe Thunderstorms: A Preliminary Study. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [4564K PDF]
Hales, J.E. Jr.*, M.D. Vescio*, and S.E. Koch, 1997: The 27 March 1994 Tornado Outbreak in the Southeast U.S.--The Forecast Process from a Storm Prediction Center Perspective. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [10052K PDF]
Hales, J.E. Jr.*, 1990: The Crucial Role of Tornado Watches in the Issuance of Warnings for Significant Tornadoes. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [1142K PDF]
Hales, J.E. Jr.*, 1985: Synoptic Features Associated with Los Angeles Tornado Occurrences. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. [5285K PDF]
Hales, J.E. Jr.*, 1977: On the Relationship of Convective Cooling to Nocturnal Thunderstorms at Phoenix. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev. [343K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF]
Hart, J.A., and A.E. Cohen*, 2016: The Challenge of Forecasting Significant Tornadoes from June to October Using Convective Parameters. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2233K PDF]
Hart, J.A., and A.E. Cohen*, 2016: The Statistical Severe Convective Risk Assessment Model. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3015K PDF]
House, D.C.*, 1964: The Problem of Detecting Mesoscale Motion Systems. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [402K PDF]
House, D.C.*, 1961: The Divergence Equation as Related to Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting.
Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [8968K PDF]
House, D.C.*, and J.T. Lee*, 1961: A Case Study of Extreme Turbulence Possibilities Based on Considerations of Buoyancy and Horizontal Divergence. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [7648K PDF]
House, D.C.*, 1960: Remarks on the Spacing of Upper-Air Observations. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [378K PDF]
House, D.C.*, 1959: The Mechanics of Instability-Line Formation. Published in J. Meteor.. [734K PDF]
House, D.C.*, 1958: Air Mass Modification and Upper-Level Divergence. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5965K PDF]
Hurlbut, M.M., and A.E. Cohen*, 2014: Environments of Northeast U.S. Severe Thunderstorm Events from 1999 to 2009. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4363K PDF]
Jewell, R., and J. Brimelow, 2009: Evaluation of Alberta Hail Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings from the United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2588K PDF]
Johns, R.H.*, and R.A. Dorr Jr., 1996: Some Meteorological Aspects of Strong and Violent Tornado Episodes in New England and Eastern New York. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [8165K PDF]
Johns, R.H.*, 1993: Meteorological Conditions Associated with Bow Echo Development in Convective Storms. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [565K PDF]
Johns, R.H.*, and W.D. Hirt*, 1993: Derechoes: Widespread Convectively Induced Windstorms. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1416K PDF]
Johns, R.H.*, J.M. Davies, and P.W. Leftwich, 1993: Some Wind and Instability Parameters Associated with Strong and Violent Tornadoes: 2. Variations in the Combinations of Wind and Instability Parameters. Published in The Tornado: Its Structure, Dynamics, Prediction, and Hazards, AGU Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 79. [662K PDF]
Johns, R.H.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 1992: Severe Local Storms Forecasting. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2366K PDF]
Johns, R.H.*, and W.D. Hirt*, 1985: The Derecho of 19-20 July 1983...A Case Study. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [8901K PDF]
Johns, R.H.*, 1984: A Synoptic Climatology of Northwest-Flow Severe Weather Outbreaks. Part II: Meteorological Parameters and Synoptic Patterns. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [1344K PDF]
Johns, R.H.*, 1982: A Synoptic Climatology of Northwest-Flow Severe Weather Outbreaks. Part I: Nature and Significance. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [765K PDF]
Jungbluth, K.A.*, 1993: Barron County, Wisconsin, Multiple Tornadoes and Hailstorms of 11 September 1990. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1181K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., J. Correia Jr.*, D.S. LaDue, J. Wolfe, T.C. Meyer, D.R. Harrison, J.L. Cintineo, K.M. Calhoun, T.M. Smith, A.E. Gerard, and L.P. Rothfusz, 2018: Development of a Human-Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3926K PDF]
Kelly, D.L.*, J.T. Schaefer*, R.P. McNulty*, C.A. Doswell III*, and R.F. Abbey Jr., 1978: An Augmented Tornado Climatology. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [790K PDF]
Kerr, B.W., and G.L. Darkow, 1996: Storm-relative Winds and Helicity in the Tornadic Thunderstorm Environment. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [513K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., M.D. Flournoy, and H.E. Brooks, 2021: Examining Subdaily Tornado Warning Performance and Associated Environmental Characteristics. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [888K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., and H.E. Brooks, 2021: The Influence of Weather Watch Type on the Quality of Tornado Warnings and Its Implications for Future Forecasting Systems. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [537K PDF]
Krocak, M.J., J.N. Allan, J.T. Ripberger, C.L. Silva, and H.C. Jenkins-Smith, 2021: An Analysis of Tornado Warning Reception and Response across Time: Leveraging Respondents' Confidence and a Nocturnal Tornado Climatology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [938K PDF]
Lee, J.T.*, and C.L. David*, 1961: The Tornado-Research Airplane Project, 1958-1959. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [466K PDF]
Lee, J.T.*, 1958: Tornadoes in the United States, 1950-1956. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [466K PDF]
Lee, J.T.*, and J.G. Galway*, 1956: Preliminary Report on the Relationship Between the Jet at the 200-mb Level and Tornado Occurrence. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [4949K PDF]
Lee, J.T.*, 1955: Thunderstorms and Tornadoes of February 1, 1955. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [6153K PDF]
Lemon, L.R.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 1979: Severe Thunderstorm Evolution and Mesocyclone Structure as Related to Tornadogenesis. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [1473K PDF]
Line, W.E., T.J. Schmit, D.T. Lindsey, and S.J. Goodman, 2016: Use of Geostationary Super Rapid Scan Satellite Imagery by the Storm Prediction Center. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1268K PDF]
Magor, B.W.*, 1959: Mesoanalysis: Some Operational Analysis Techniques Utilized in Tornado Forecasting. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [9389K PDF]
Magor, B.W.*, 1958: A Meso-low Associated with a Severe Storm. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [1152K PDF]
McCann, D.W.*, 1997: Comments on "Downbursts". Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [2792K PDF]
McCann, D.W.*, 1995: Three-Dimensional Computations of Equivalent Potential Vorticity. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [469K PDF]
McCann, D.W.*, 1994: WINDEX--A New Index for Forecasting Microburst Potential. Published in Wea. Forecasting [1142K PDF]
McCann, D.W.*, 1983: The Enhanced-V: A Satellite Observable Severe Storm Signature. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [821K PDF]
McCann, D.W.*, 1981: Use of Enhanced Infrared Satellite Imagery for Short-Term Thunderstorm Advisories to Aviation. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [1237K PDF]
McNulty, R.P.*, 1981: Tornadoes West of the Divide: A Climatology. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [866K PDF]
McNulty, R.P.*, 1981: A Statistical Approach to Short-Term Thunderstorm Outlooks. Published in J. Appl. Meteor. [441K PDF]
McNulty, R.P.*, 1978: On Upper Tropospheric Kinematics and Severe Weather Occurrence. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [884K PDF]
Mead, C.M.*, and R.L. Thompson, 2011: Environmental Characteristics Associated with Nocturnal Significant-Tornado Events in the Central and Southern Great Plains. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor. [1220K PDF]
Moore, A.D., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6611K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J.*, T.J. Brown, D.J. McEvoy, and N.P. Lareau, 2019: Record-Setting California Wildfires. Sidebar 7.1 in State of the Climate 2018, Ch. 7, Regional Climates. P. Bissoli, C. Ganter, T. Li, A. Mekonnen, and A. Sanchez-Luco, Eds. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. [573K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J.*, B.J. Hatchett, T.J. Brown, M.L. Kaplan, and J.F. Mejia, 2019: Impact of the North American Monsoon on Wildfire Activity in the Southwest United States. Published in Int. J. of Climatology. [2095K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J.*, J.T. Abatzoglou, and P.T. Marsh, 2018: The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study. Published in Fire. [4280K PDF]
Ostby, F.P.*, 1999: Improved Accuracy in Severe Storm Forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit during the Last 25 Years: Then versus Now. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [484K PDF]
Ostby, F.P.*, 1992: Operations of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1515K PDF]
Pearson, A.D.*, and S.J. Weiss*, 1979: Some Trends in Forecast Skill at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [655K PDF]
Pearson, A.D.*, 1975: Comments on "Hurricane Spawned Tornadoes". Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [46K PDF]
Prosser, N.E.*, and D.S. Foster*, 1966: Upper Air Sounding Analysis by Use of an Electronic Computer. Published in J. Appl. Meteor.. [293K PDF]
Roberts, B.*, and Coauthors, 2023: Model Configuration versus Driving Model: Influences on Next-Day Regional Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts during a Real-Time Experiment. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6602K PDF]
Roberts, B.*, B.T. Gallo, I.L. Jirak, A.J. Clark, D.C. Dowell, X. Wang, and Y. Wang, 2020: What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opportunity Buy Us in Forecasting Thunderstorms? Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3366K PDF]
Roberts, B.*, I.L. Jirak, A.J. Clark, S.J. Weiss*, and J.S. Kain, 2019: Postprocessing and Visualization Techniques for Convection-Allowing Ensembles. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [8995K PDF]
Rogash, J.A.*, and J.P. Racy*, 2002: Some Meteorological Characteristics of Significant Tornado Events Occurring in Proximity to Flash Flooding. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [54K PDF]
Rogash, J.A.*, and R.D. Smith, 2000: Multiscale Overview of a Violent Tornado Outbreak with Attendant Flash Flooding. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [430K PDF]
Rogash, J.A.*, 1995: The Relationship between Longer-Lived Surface Boundaries and Low Pressure Centers with the Occurrence of Strong and Violent Tornadoes. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [3187K PDF]
Rogers, J.W.*, A.E. Cohen*, and L.B. Carlaw, 2017: Convection during the North American Monsoon across Central and Southern Arizona: Applications to Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1458K PDF]
Rogers, J.W.*, B.A. Hagenhoff, A.E. Cohen*, R.L. Thompson, B.T. Smith, and E.E. Carpenter, 2016: Lower Mississippi River Valley Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornado Environments and Radar Signatures. Published in NWA J. Oper. Meteor. [1508K PDF]
Schaefer, J.T.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 1984: Empirical Orthogonal Function Expansion Applied to Progressive Tornado Outbreaks. Published in J. Meteor. Soc. of Japan. [1130K PDF]
Schaefer, J.T.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 1980: The Theory and Practical Application of Antitriptic Balance. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [759K PDF]
Schaefer, J.T.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 1979: On the Interpolation of a Vector Field. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [102K PDF]
Schaefer, J.T.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 1978: The Inherent Position Errors in Double-Theodolite Pibal Measurements. Published in J. Appl. Meteor.. [320K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, D.A. Speheger, A.R. Dean, C.D. Karstens, and A.K. Anderson-Frey, 2020: WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part II: Real-Time Applications to Tornado Warning Time Scales. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3246K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, D.A. Speheger, A.R. Dean, C.D. Karstens, and A.K. Anderson-Frey, 2020: WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part I: Real-Time Probabilities of Peak Tornado Wind Speeds. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3291K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, A.R. Dean, and P.T. Marsh, 2015: Diagnosing the Conditional Probability of Tornado Damage Rating Using Environmental and Radar Attributes. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4085K PDF]
Smith, B.T., T.E. Castellanos, A.C. Winters, C.M. Mead*, A.R. Dean, and R.L. Thompson, 2013: Measured Severe Convective Wind Climatology and Associated Convective Modes of Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States, 2003-09. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2509K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, J.S. Grams, C. Broyles, and H.E. Brooks, 2012: Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part I: Storm Classification and Climatology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [9430K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part II: Impacts on QPFs. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5607K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3655K PDF]
Thiel, K.C., K.M. Calhoun, and A.E. Reinhart, 2023: Forecast Applications of GLM Gridded Products: A Data Fusion Perspective. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5365K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, J.S. Grams, A.R. Dean, J.C. Picca, A.E. Cohen*, E.M. Leitman, A.M. Gleason, and P.T. Marsh, 2017: Tornado Damage Rating Probabilities Derived from WSR-88D Data. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6455K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, A.R. Dean, and P.T. Marsh, 2013: Spatial Distributions of Tornadic Near-Storm Environments by Convective Mode. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor. [1517K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, J.S. Grams, A.R. Dean, and C. Broyles, 2012: Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part II: Supercell and QLCS Tornado Environments. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2603K PDF]
Thompson, R.L, C.M. Mead*, and R. Edwards, 2007: Effective Storm-Relative Helicity and Bulk Shear in Supercell Thunderstorm Environments. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1930K PDF]
Thompson, R.L, R. Edwards, J.A. Hart, K.L. Elmore and P.M. Markowski, 2003: Close Proximity Soundings within Supercell Environments Obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2566K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., and R. Edwards, 2000: An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak. Published in Wea. Forecasting [1786K HTML] [1409K Original PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 1998: Eta Model Storm-relative Winds Associated with Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells. Published in Wea. Forecasting [395K HTML] [234K Original PDF]
Trujillo-Falcon, J.E., A.R. Gaviria Pabon, J.T. Ripberger, A. Bitterman, J.B. Thornton, M.J. Krocak, S.R. Ernst, E. Cassiani Obeso, and J. Lipski, 2022: Aviso o Alerta? Developing Effective, Inclusive, and Consistent Watch and Warning Translations for U.S. Spanish Speakers. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. [1404K PDF]
Trujillo-Falcon, J.E., O. Bermudez, K. Negron-Hernandez, J. Lipski, E. Leitman, and K. Berry, 2021: Hazardous Weather Communication en Espanol: Challenges, Current Resources, and Future Practices. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. [5004K PDF]
Vescio, M.D.*, and R.L. Thompson, 2001: Subjective Tornado Probability Forecasts in Severe Weather Watches. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [76K PDF]
Vescio, M.D.*, S.J. Weiss*, and F.P. Ostby*, 1996: Tornadoes Associated with Tropical Storm Beryl. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [6620K PDF]
Wade, A.R., I.L. Jirak, and A.W. Lyza, 2023: Regional and Seasonal Biases in Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts of Near-Surface Temperature and Moisture. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [31229K PDF]
Wade, A.R., and I.L. Jirak, 2022: Exploring Hourly Updating Probabilistic Guidance in the 2021 Spring Forecasting Experiment with Objective and Subjective Verification.
Weiss, S.J.*, 1992: Some Aspects of Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms during Cool-Season Return-Flow Episodes. Published in Journal of Applied Meteorology. [1490K PDF]
Weiss, S.J.*, 1987: An Assessment of the NGM Four-Layer Lifted Index Prognoses of Extreme Instability. Published in Natl. Wea. Dig. [8213K PDF]
Weiss, S.J.*, C.A. Doswell III*, and F.P. Ostby*, 1980: Comments on "Automated 12-36 Hour Probability Forecasts of Thunderstorms and Severe Local Storms". Published in J. of Applied Meteorology. [472K PDF]
Wendt, N.A., and I.L. Jirak, 2021: An Hourly Climatology of Operational MRMS MESH-Diagnosed Severe and Significant Hail with Comparisons to Storm Data Hail Reports. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3931K PDF]
Williams, R.J.*, 1976: Surface Parameters Associated with Tornadoes. Published in Mon. Wea. Rev.. [339K PDF]
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These are informal research papers with SPC-affiliated lead authors, prepared for conferences of the American Meteorological Society, National Weather Association, or other professional organizations. Formal versions of some of these may appear as refereed papers in AMS, NWA, EJSSM, or other journals. Please check above.
Baldwin, M.E., and K.L. Elmore, 2005: Objective Verification of High-Resolution WRF Forecasts during 2005 NSSL/SPC Spring Program. Preprints, 17th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, 11B.4. [239K PDF]
Banacos, P.C.*, and D.M. Schultz, 2004: Moisture Flux Convergence: Its History and Application in Convective Initiation Forecasting. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [2710K PDF]
Banacos, P.C.*, 2003: Short-range prediction of banded precipitation associated with deformation and frontogenesis forcing. Preprints, AMS 10th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland OR. [642K PDF]
Banacos, P.C.*, and H.B. Bluestein, 2002: Hodograph Variability within Analytically Modeled Baroclinic Waves. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [357K PDF]
Bothwell, P.D.*, B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, A.R. Dean, and J.S. Kain, 2014: Severe Weather Parameter Reanalysis Project at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [247K PDF]
Bothwell, P.D., J.A. Hart, and R.L. Thompson, 2002: An Integrated Three-Dimensional Objective Analysis Scheme in Use at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX, JP3.1.
Brannan, A.L., S. Gertonson, I.L. Jirak, B. Roberts*, A.D. Lyons, and J.L. Guyer, 2022: Predictability of Large-Scale Patterns that Lead to Tornado Outbreaks at Lead Times Out to 14 Days. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, 9.2. [1676K PDF]
Bright, D.R.*, and J.S. Grams, 2009: Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Calibrated Thunderstorm Probability Forecasts: 2007-2008 Verification and Recent Enhancements. Preprints, 4th Conf. Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, Phoenix, AZ. [293K PDF]
Bright, D.R.*, S.J. Weiss*, J.J. Levit*, and R.S. Schneider, 2008: The Evolution of Multi-Scale Ensemble Guidance in the Prediction of Convective and Severe Convective Storms at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [4524K PDF]
Bright, D.R.*, and R.H. Grumm, 2006: Application of Climate Statistics and Ensemble Forecasts in the Prediction of Severe Weather Episodes. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [358K PDF]
Bright, D.R.*, and M.S. Wandishin, 2006: Post Processed Short Range Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Convective Storms. Preprints, 18th Conf. Probability and Statistics in the Atmos. Sciences, Atlanta GA. [664K PDF]
Bright, D.R.*, M.S. Wandishin, R.E. Jewell, and S.J. Weiss*, 2005: A Physically Based Parameter for Lightning Prediction and its Calibration in Ensemble Forecasts. Preprints, Conf. on Meteor. Applications of Lightning Data, San Diego CA. [2339K PDF]
Bright, D.R.*, S.J. Weiss*, J.J. Levit*, M.S. Wandishin, J.S. Kain, and D.J. Stensrud, 2004: Evaluation of Short-range Ensemble Forecasts during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [405K PDF]
Bright, D.R.*, and P.A. Nutter, 2004: On the Challenges of Identifying the "Best" Ensemble Member in Operational Forecasting. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA. [379K PDF]
Broyles, J.C., E.D. Loken, E.S. Bentley, A.R. Dean, J. Vancil, W. Jiao, D.J. Gagne II, M. Taszarek, and H.E. Brooks, 2024: The OMEGA Project. Proc., 31st Conf. Severe Local Storms, Virginia Beach, VA, 171. [5483K PDF]
Broyles, J.C., C.K. Potvin, G.L. Dial*, J. Murnan, S. Shores, A.D. Lyons, M.S. Elliott, and A.R. Cook*, 2022: Tornadogenesis in High-end Tornadic Supercells, Part 3: Moore, Oklahoma EF5 on May 20, 2013--A Representative Case of Tornadogenesis. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P13. [3872K PDF] (supplemental slide show, full -- 263 MB) (supplemental slide show, animation only -- 73 MB)
Broyles, J.C., C.K. Potvin, G.L. Dial*, J. Murnan, S. Shores, A.D. Lyons, M.S. Elliott, and A.R. Cook*, 2022: Tornadogenesis in High-end Tornadic Supercells, Part 2: The Descending Reflectivity Core, Inflow Channel and Streamwise Vorticity Current. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P13. [12737K PDF]
Broyles, J.C., C.K. Potvin, G.L. Dial*, J. Murnan, S. Shores, A.D. Lyons, M.S. Elliott, and A.R. Cook*, 2022: Tornadogenesis in High-end Tornadic Supercells, Part 1: The RFD Surge, RFD Occlusion and Cell Mergers. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P13. [3872K PDF]
Broyles, C., C.K. Potvin, K.C. Crosbie*, R.M. Rabin, and P. Skinner, 2018: Location and Frequency of Surface Lows and Lower-Tropospheric Jets for U.S. Violent Tornadoes. Preprints, 29th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT. [1505K PDF]
Broyles, C., C.K. Potvin, K.C. Crosbie*, R.M. Rabin, and P. Skinner, 2018: U.S. Violent Tornadoes Relative to the Position of the 850-mb Jet. Preprints, 29th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT. [1410K PDF]
Broyles, J.C., and K.C. Crosbie*, 2004: Evidence of Smaller Tornado Alleys Across the United States Based on a Long Track F3-F5 Tornado Climatology Study from 1880-2003. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [2940K PDF]
Carbin, G.W.*, J.S. Kain, M.S. Bukovsky, and M.E. Baldwin, 2003: Mesoscale Processes Associated with the Rapid Erosion of the "Cap". Preprints, 10th Conf. Mesoscale Processes, Portland OR. [854K PDF]
Cook, A.R.*, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2006: The Relation of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [171K PDF]
Corfidi, S.F.*, M.C. Coniglio, and J.S. Kain, 2010: Environment and Early Evolution of the 8 May 2009 "Super Derecho". Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1260K PDF] ( download presentation) or view (supplemental slide show)
Corfidi, S.F.*, and S.J. Corfidi*, 2006: Toward a Better Understanding of Elevated Convection. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [450K PDF]
Corfidi, S.F.*, J.J. Levit*, and S.J. Weiss*, 2004: The Super Outbreak: Outbreak of the Century. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [1869K PDF] (supplemental slide show)
Corfidi, S.F.*, D.A. Imy*, S.J. Taylor*, and A. Logan, 2004: A Preliminary Investigation of Derecho-producing MCSs in Environments of Very Low Dew Points. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [501K PDF]
Corfidi, S.F.*, 1998: Forecasting MCS Mode and Motion. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN. [39K HTML]
Corfidi, S.F.*, 1998 (updated 2007): Some Thoughts on the Role Mesoscale Features Played in the 27 May 1997 Central Texas (Jarrell) Tornado Outbreak Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN [82K HTML]
Craven, J.P.*, H.E. Brooks and J.A. Hart, 2002: Baseline Climatology of Sounding Derived Parameters Associated with Deep, Moist Convection. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [131K PDF]
Dahl, N.A., I.L. Jirak, K.H. Knopfmeier, J. Martin, and B.C. Matilla, 2022: Warn-on-Forecast System Output as a Verification Tool for Severe Wind Events. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, 17.3B. [1286K PDF]
Dahl, N.A., 2020: Reducing Moist Adiabatic Calculation Costs Using Lookup Tables. Proc., 30th Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 26th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction, Boston, MA, 2B.3. [1127K PDF]
Dahl, N.A., R. Adams-Selin, R.E. Jewell, and I.L. Jirak, 2020: Updating the use of HAILCAST in NSHARP. Proc. 30th Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting /26th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Boston, MA, 166. [8323K PDF]
Darrow, M.A., and M.L. Rehbein*, 1996: A Preliminary Investigation of West Coast Convection during the Cool Season Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [70K HTML]
Davis, J.M.*, A.R. Dean, and J.L. Guyer, 2010: A Detailed Analysis of SPC "High Risk" Outlooks, 2003-2009. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [138K PDF]
Dean, A.R., R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2018: Relating Convective Mode Information to SPC Tornado Outlook Verification. Preprints, 29th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT. [981K PDF]
Dean, A.R., and R.S. Schneider, 2012: An Examination of Tornado Environments, Events, and Impacts from 2003-2012.. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [1173K PDF]
Dean, A.R., 2010: An Analysis of Clustered Tornado Events. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [928K PDF]
Dean, A.R., R.S. Schneider, R.L. Thompson, J.A. Hart, and P.D. Bothwell*, 2009: The Conditional Risk of Severe Convection Estimated from NWS Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Objective Analyses: Potential Uses in Support of Forecast Operations and Verification. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Omaha NE. [109K PDF]
Dean, A.R., and R.S. Schneider, 2008: Forecast Challenges at the NWS Storm Prediction Center Relating to the Frequency of Favorable Severe Storm Environments. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [950K PDF]
Dean, A.R., R.S. Schneider, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2006: Development of a Comprehensive Severe Weather Forecast Verification System at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [191K PDF]
Dean, A.R., and D.A. Imy*, 2006: A Look at the Tornado Report and Watch Climatology for the Continental United States from 1986-2005. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [315K PDF]
Dean, A.R., and J.T. Schaefer*, 2006: PDS Watches: How Dangerous are these "Particularly Dangerous Situations?" Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [123K PDF]
Dial, G.L.*, and J.P. Racy*, 2004: Forecasting Short Term Convective Mode and Evolution for Severe Storms Initiated along Synoptic Boundaries. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [104K PDF]
Edwards, R., M.D. Flournoy, and M. Taszarek, 2024: Tracking Supercells in Tropical Cyclones. Proc., 31st Conf. Severe Local Storms, Virginia Beach, VA, P44. [1458K PDF]
Edwards, R., M.S. Elliott, P.T. Marsh, and D.A. Speheger, 2022: Errors, Oddities and Artifacts in U.S. Tornado Data, 1995-2021. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, 8.3B. [1320K PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.M. Mosier, 2022: Over a Quarter Century of TCTOR: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes in the WSR-88D Era. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P171. [1631K PDF]
Edwards, R., C.J. Nowotarski, S. Overpeck, and G.R. Woodall, 2018: Tornadoes in Hurricane Harvey: Documentation and Environmental Analysis. Preprints, 29th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT. [2199K PDF]
Edwards, R., and A.R. Dean, 2018: Environments of Supercellular Satellite Tornadoes. Preprints, 29th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT. [619K PDF]
Edwards, R., and J.C. Picca, 2016: Tornadic Debris Signatures in Tropical Cyclones. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [1888K PDF]
Edwards, R., and G.W. Carbin*, 2016: Estimated Convective Winds: Reliability and Effects on Severe-Storm Climatology. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [1458K PDF]
Edwards, R., B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson and A.R. Dean, 2015: Analyses of Radar Rotational Velocities and Environmental Parameters for Tornadic Supercells in Tropical Cyclones. Preprints, 37th Conf. Radar Meteorology, Norman, OK. [1060K PDF]
Edwards, R., G.W. Carbin*, and S.F. Corfidi*, 2015: Overview of the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 13th History Symp., Phoenix, AZ. [832K PDF]
Edwards, R., 2014: Characteristics of Supercellular Satellite Tornadoes. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [1002K PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2014: Reversible CAPE in Tropical Cyclone Tornado Regimes. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [554K PDF]
Edwards, R., 2013: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: History and State of Understanding. Preprints, XIX Jornades de Meteorologia Eduard Fontsere, Barcelona, Spain. [964K PDF]
Edwards, R., 2013: Overview of the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, XIX Jornades de Meteorologia Eduard Fontsere, Barcelona, Spain. [964K PDF]
Edwards, R., A.R. Dean, R.L. Thompson and B.T. Smith, 2012: Nonsupercell Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: Documentation, Classification and Uncertainties. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [1278K PDF]
Edwards, R., J.G. LaDue, J.T. Ferree, K. Scharfenberg, C. Maier, and W.L. Coulbourne, 2010: The Enhanced Fujita Scale: Past, Present and Future. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [148K PDF]
Edwards, R., 2010: Tropical Cyclone Tornado Records for the Modernized NWS Era. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [416K PDF]
Edwards, R., A.R. Dean, R.L. Thompson and B.T. Smith, 2010: Objective Environmental Analyses and Convective Modes for United States Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes from 2003-2008. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [369K PDF]
Edwards, R., and H.E. Brooks, 2010: Possible Impacts of the Enhanced Fujita Scale on United States Tornado Data. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [148K PDF]
Edwards, R., 2008: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes -- A Research and Forecasting Overview. Part 1: Climatologies, Distribution and Forecast concepts. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [135K PDF]
Edwards, R., 2006: Supercells of the Serranias del Burro (Mexico). Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [290K PDF]
Edwards, R., and A.E. Pietrycha, 2006: Archetypes for Surface Baroclinic Boundaries Influencing Tropical Cyclone Tornado Occurrence. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [399K PDF]
Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson, and C.M. Mead*, 2004: Assessment of Anticyclonic Supercell Environments Using Close Proximity Soundings from the RUC Model. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [151K PDF]
Edwards, R., and S.J. Hodanish, 2004: Environmental Analysis and Photographic Documentation of an Intense, Left-moving Supercell on the Colorado Plains. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [514K PDF]
Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson, K.C. Crosbie*, J.A. Hart, and C. A. Doswell III, 2004: Proposals for Modernizing the Definitions of Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outbreaks. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [187K PDF]
Edwards, R., 2003: Rating Tornado Damage: An Exercise in Subjectivity. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach CA. [685K PDF]
Edwards, R., and L.R. Lemon*, 2002: Proactive or Reactive? The Severe Storm Threat to Large Event Venues. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [536K PDF]
Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson and J.A. Hart, 2002: Verification of Supercell Motion Forecasting Techniques. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [125K PDF]
Edwards, R., G.V. Rao, and J.W. Scheck, 2000: Examination of Tornadic Supercells in Tropical Cyclone Earl (1998) Using Conventional and WSR-88D Data Suites. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL [249K HTML]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2000: RUC-2 Supercell Proximity Soundings, Part II: An Independent Assessment of Supercell Forecast Parameters. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [87K HTML]
Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson and J.G. LaDue, 2000: Initiation of Storm A (3 May 99) along a Possible Horizontal Convective Roll. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [158K HTML]
Edwards, R., 1999: Tornado Production During Exiting Tropical Cyclones. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Hurricanes and Tropical Met., Dallas TX. [103K HTML]
Edwards, R., 1999: Storm Prediction Center Support for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Hurricanes and Tropical Met., Dallas TX. [38K HTML]
Edwards, R. and S.J. Weiss*, 1996: Comparisons between Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Southern U.S. Severe Thunderstorm Frequency in the Cool Season. Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [52K HTML]
Evans, J.S.*, C.M. Mead*, and S.J. Weiss*, 2008: Forecasting the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak at the SPC: Why Forecast Uncertainty Does Not Necessarily Decrease as You Get Closer to a High Impact Weather Event. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [419K PDF]
Evans, J.S.*, and J.L. Guyer, 2006: The Relationship of Cool Season Significant Tornado Events and Buoy Data in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [264K PDF]
Evans, J.S.*, and C.A. Doswell III, 2002: Investigating Derecho and Supercell Proximity Soundings. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [190K PDF]
Evans, J.S.*, and R.H. Johns*, 1996: Significant Tornadoes in the Big Horn Mountains of Wyoming. Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [107K HTML]
Evenson, E.C.* and J.R. Mecikalski, 1996: Preliminary Evaluation of a PCGRIDDS Macro in Forecasting Dry Microbursts over the Western United States. Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [48K HTML]
Gallo, B.T., M. Krocak, B.J. Roberts, K.H. Knopfmeier, I.L. Jirak, A.J. Clark, Y. Wang, J.R. Carley, C.R. Alexander, L. Harris, K.-Y. Cheng, and S. Liu, 2022: Subjective Evaluation of Operational and Experimental FV3-based CAM Configurations for Severe Weather Forecasting. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P209.
Goss, S.M., R.L. Thompson, and E. Bookbinder, 2006: An Elevated Supercell with Damaging Wind from the Morning of 12 March 2006. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [446 K PDF]
Guyer, J.L., 2018: A Noteworthy Year for Supercells and Tornadoes in the Western United States in 2018. Preprints, 29th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT. [1187K PDF]
Guyer, J.L. and A.R. Dean, 2015: Tornadoes Associated with an Absence of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning. Preprints, 40th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Oklahoma City, OK, AP26. [659K PDF]
Guyer, J.L., and I.L. Jirak, 2014: The Utility of Storm-scale Ensemble Forecasts of Cool Season Severe Weather Events from the SPC Perspective. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [617K PDF]
Guyer, J.L., and J.A. Hart, 2012: Examination of WSR-88D VWP Data in Proximity to Strong Tornadoes. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [320K PDF]
Guyer, J.L., and A.R. Dean, 2010: Tornadoes within Weak CAPE Environments across the Continental United States. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1260K PDF]
Guyer, J.L., and D.R. Bright*, 2008: Utility of Short-range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Guidance for Forecasting the Development of Severe Convection. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [353K PDF]
Guyer, J.L., and J.M. Davies, 2006: Enviroment Characteristics Associated with Tornado Events near Closed Cold Core 500 MB Lows. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [199K PDF]
Guyer, J.L., D.A. Imy*, A. Kis*, and K. Venable, 2006: Cool Season Significant (F2-F5) Tornadoes in the Gulf Coast States. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [657K PDF]
Guyer, J.L., and R. Ewald, 2004: Record Hail Event - Examination of the Aurora, Nebraska Supercell of 22 June 2003. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [2012K PDF]
Guyer, J.L., and T.J. Shea, 2003: An Assessment of the Variability in Operational Assignment of F-Scale Damage. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach CA [PDF]
Guyer, J.L., and M.L. Moritz, 2003: On Issues of Tornado Damage Assessment and F-Scale Assignment in Agricultural Areas. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach CA [PDF]
Halbert, K.T., N.A. Dahl, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2024: Upgrades to the Storm Prediction Center Mesoanalysis: A Low-Latency, 3-km HRRR-Based Objective Mesoanalysis. Proc., 31st Conf. Severe Local Storms, Virginia Beach, VA, 17A.1. [4890K PDF]
Hales, J.E. Jr.*, and M.D. Vescio*, 1996: The March 1994 Tornado Outbreak in the Southeast U.S. from an SPC Perspective Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA [55K HTML]
Harless, A.R., S.J. Weiss*, R.S. Schneider, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2010: A Report and Feature-based Verification Study of the CAPS 2008 Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts for Severe Convective Weather. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [933K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., I.L. Jirak and P.T. Marsh, 2024: Developing and Evaluating First-Guess Watch Guidance Within SPC Operations. Proc., 31st Conf. Severe Local Storms, Virginia Beach, VA, 170. [639K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., I.L. Jirak, and M.D. Elliott, 2020: Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance at the Storm Prediction Center. Proc., 26th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction, Boston, MA, 12B.3. [890K PDF]
Hepper, R.M.*, I.L. Jirak, and J.M. Milne, 2016: Assessing the Skill of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Severe MCS Winds from the SSEO. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [942K PDF]
Jahn, D.E., and I.L. Jirak, 2024: Updraft Helicity Skewness as a Parameter to Forecast Probability of Convective Mode. Proc., 31st Conf. Severe Local Storms, Virginia Beach, VA, 16B.4. [650K PDF]
Jahn, D.E., E.D. Loken, B.T. Gallo, C.D. Karstens, and B. Hempel, 2022: Analysis of Subjective and Objective Evaluations of Calibrated Tornado Guidance in the Hazardous Weather Testbed. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P47. [680K PDF]
Jahn, D.E., I.L. Jirak, A. Wade, and J. Milne, 2022: Storm Mode and Tornado Potential Determination Using Statistical Moments of Updraft Helicity Distribution. Proc., 31st Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting/27th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction (virtual), 460. [790K PDF]
Jahn, D.E., B.T. Gallo, C. Broyles, B.T. Smith, I.L. Jirak, and J. Milne, 2020: Refining CAM-Based Tornado Probability Forecasts Using Storm-Inflow and Storm-Attribute Information. Proc., 26th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction, Boston, MA, 2A4. [1105K PDF]
Jewell, R., 2010: The Sounding Analog Retrieval System (SARS). Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [274K PDF]
Jewell, R., and J. Brimelow, 2004: Evaluation of an Alberta Hail Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings in the United States. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [1162K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., J. Vancil, J.C. Picca, R.S. Schneider, and P.T. Marsh, 2024: Conditional Intensity Estimation of Severe Hail and Wind Using Environmental Parameters. Proc., 31st Conf. Severe Local Storms, Virginia Beach, VA, 17A.2. [863K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., D.R. Harrison, and J. Vancil, 2022: HREF Climatology of Storm-Attribute Fields. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, 8.4B. [1141K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., and M.S. Elliott, 2022: Operational Model Performance for Fire Weather Forecasting. Proc., 31st Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting/27th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction (virtual), 13A.3. [1256K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., M.S. Elliott, C.D. Karstens, R.S. Schneider, P.T. Marsh, and W.F. Bunting, 2020: Generating Probabilistic Severe Timing Information from SPC Outlooks using the HREF. Proc., Severe Local Storms Symp., Boston, MA, 3.1. [831K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., C.J. Melick*, and S.J. Weiss*, 2016: Comparison of the SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity to other Convection-Allowing Ensembles for Severe Weather Forecasting. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [229K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., A.J. Clark, C.J. Melick*, and S.J. Weiss*, 2016: Investigation of the Impact of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Size for Severe Weather Forecasting. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [407K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., C.J. Melick*, and S.J. Weiss*, 2015: Comparison of Convection-Allowing Ensembles during the 2015 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 40th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Oklahoma City, OK, AP-36. [314K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., M. Coniglio, A.J. Clark, J. Correia Jr.*, K.H. Knopfmeier, C.J. Melick*, S.J. Weiss*, J.S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, K.W. Thomas, K. Brewster, Y. Wang, Y. Jung, and S. Willington, 2014: An Overview of the 2014 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [1528K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., C.J. Melick*, and S.J. Weiss*, 2014: Combining Probabilistic Ensemble Information from the Environment with Simulated Storm Attributes to Generate Calibrated Probabilities of Severe Weather Hazards. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [864K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., S. J. Weiss*, and C. J. Melick*, 2012: The SPC Storm-scale Ensemble of Opportunity: Overview and Results from the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN. [473K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., C.J. Melick*, A.R. Dean, S.J. Weiss*, and J. Correia Jr.*, 2012: Investigation of an Automated Temporal Disaggregation Technique for Convective Outlooks during the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [558K PDF]
Jirak, I.L., S.J. Weiss*, C.J. Melick*, P.T. Marsh, J.S. Kain, A.J. Clark, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K.W. Thomas, 2010: Evaluation of the Performance and Distribution of Hourly Maximum Fields from Storm-scale Ensemble Forecasts. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [519K PDF]
Karstens, C.D., B. Saba, B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, S.A. Erickson, and I.L. Jirak, 2022: A Method for Adding Intensity Information to NWS Preliminary Tornado Damage Paths. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P28. [22963K PDF]
Kay, M.P.* and H.E. Brooks, 2000: Verification of Probabilistic Severe Storm Forecasts at the SPC. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [105K HTML]
Kis, A.K.*, J.M. Straka and K.M. Kanak, 2008: Nocturnal Tornadoes and Low-level Static Stability. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [909K PDF]
Kis, A.K.*, J.M. Straka and K.M. Kanak, 2008: On the Role of Descending Rain Curtains in Tornadogenesis. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [2619K PDF]
Kumjian, M. *, J.S. Evans*, and J.L. Guyer, 2006: The Relationship of the Great Plains Low Level Jet to Nocturnal MCS Development. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [289 K PDF]
Levit, J.J.*, J.A. Hart, R.S. Schneider, D.R. Bright*, and R.L. Thompson, 2008: Utilizing Short-range Ensemble Point Forecast Soundings for Severe Weather Forecasting. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [94K PDF]
Levit, J.J.*, G.W. Carbin*, D.R. Bright*, J.S. Kain, S.J. Weiss*, R.S. Schneider, M.C. Coniglio, M. Xue, K.W. Thomas, M.E. Pyle, and M.L. Weisman, 2008: The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2008 Spring Experiment: Technical and Scientific Challenges of Creating a Data Visualization Environment for Storm-scale Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [195K PDF]
Levit, J.J.*, V. Lakshmanan, K. Manross and R.S. Schneider, 2004: Integration of the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information into the NOAA Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [60K PDF]
Line, W.E., 2016: Results from GOES-R and JPSS Proving Ground Demonstrations at the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2015 Spring Experiment Preprints, 12th Ann. Symp. on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, New Orleans, LA., J9.7. [691K PDF]
Line, W.E., 2014: Results from the GOES-R Proving Ground Portion of the 2014 HWT Spring Experiment. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [613K PDF]
Lynn, R.J., * 2002: The WDSS-II Supercell Identification and Assessment Algorithm. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [124K PDF]
Lynn, R.J.*, and V. Lakshmanan, 2002: Virtual Radar Volumes: Creation, Algorithm Access, and Visualization. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [121K PDF]
Lyons, A.D., B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, and A.R. Dean, 2022: Convective Mode Classification and Climatology of Tornado Events in the Contiguous United States 2000-2020. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P28. [5973K PDF]
McCarthy, D.W.*, J.T. Schaefer*, and R. Edwards, 2006: What Are We Doing with (or to) the F-Scale? Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [170 KB PDF]
McCarthy, D.W.*, and K.P. Tarp, 2005: Covering the Storm: Broadcasting from the NWS Storm Prediction Center and Other National Centers. Preprints, 30th NWA Anunual Meeting, St. Louis MO, 4.1. [21K PDF]
McCarthy, D.W.*, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2005: 2004 Year in Tornadoes: What a Year It Was! Preprints, 30th NWA Anunual Meeting, St. Louis MO, 2.1. [179K PDF]
McCarthy, D.W.*, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2004: Tornado Trends over the Past 30 Years. Preprints, 14th Conf. Applied Climatology, Seattle WA. [218K PDF]
McCarthy, D.W.*, 2003: NWS Tornado Surveys and the Impact on the National Tornado Database. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach, CA. [1735K PDF]
Mead, C.M.*, and R.L. Thompson, 2010: A Synoptic-scale Environment Associated with Significant Nocturnal Tornado Events in the Great Plains. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1047K PDF]
Melick, C.J.*, A.R. Dean, J.L. Guyer, and I.L. Jirak, 2016: Cloud Flash Lightning Characteristics for Tornadoes without Cloud-to-Ground Lightning. Preprints, 41st Nat. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Norfolk, VA, 11B. [563K PDF]
Melick, C.J.*, P.M. Marsh, A.R. Dean, I.L. Jirak, and S.J. Weiss*, 2015: Lightning Characteristics and Relationship to Preliminary Local Storm Reports. Preprints, 40th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Oklahoma City, OK, 2454. [751K PDF]
Melick, C.J.*, I.L. Jirak, J. Correia Jr.*, A.R. Dean, and S.J. Weiss*, 2014: Exploration of the NSSL Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) Product for Verifying Experimental Hail Forecasts in the 2014 Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [850K PDF]
Melick, C.J.*, I.L. Jirak, J. Correia Jr.*, A.R. Dean, and S.J. Weiss*, 2013: Utility of Objective Verification Metrics during the 2013 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 38th NWA Ann. Meeting, Charleston, SC, Natl. Wea. Assoc. [1020K PDF]
Melick, C.J.*, I.L. Jirak, A.R. Dean, J. Correia Jr.*, and S.J. Weiss*, 2012: Real Time Objective Verification of Convective Forecasts: 2012 HWT Spring Forecast Experiment. Preprints, 37th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Madison, WI. [1102K PDF]
Melick, C.J.*, I.L. Jirak, S.J. Weiss*, A.J. Clark, P.T. Marsh, J.S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K.W. Thomas, 2010: An Environmental Climatology of the CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast System during the 2010 HWT Spring Experiment. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1891K PDF]
Miller, S.J. Jr.*, G.W. Carbin*, J.S. Kain, E.W. McCaul Jr., A.R. Dean, C.J. Melick*, and S.J. Weiss*, 2010: Preliminary Investigation into Lightning Hazard Prediction from High Resolution Numerical Model Output. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [821K PDF]
Milne, J.M., I.L. Jirak, and H.E. Brooks, 2022: Evaluating an Alternative Method of Calculating Updraft Helicity. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P190. [2100K PDF]
Milne, J.M., I.L. Jirak, and H.E. Brooks, 2020: Investigating the Vertical Structure of Updraft Helicity in an Idealized Supercell Simulation. Preprints, 30th Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting/26th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction, Boston, MA, 153. [8323K PDF]
Milne, J.M., I.L. Jirak, and H.E. Brooks, 2018: Investigating the Vertical Structure of Updraft Helicity in Convection-Allowing Models. Preprints, 29th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Stowe, VT. [997K PDF]
Milne, J.M., H.E. Brooks, I.L. Jirak, and R.M. Hepper*, 2016: Verification of 10-Meter Wind Forecasts from NSSL-WRF in Predicting Severe Wind-Producing MCSs. Preprints, 28th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Portland, OR. [1123K PDF]
Mosier, R.M., and R. Edwards, 2022: Visualization Tools for the Storm Prediction Center's Tropical Cyclone Tornado Database. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P172. [1631K PDF]
Mosier, R.M., B.T. Smith, R.L. Thompson, and C.D. Karstens, 2022: A Tool for Real-Time Estimation of Tornado Damage Intensity. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P134. [737K PDF]
Nauslar, N.J., A.R. Dean, I.L. Jirak, P.T. Marsh, and S.J. Weiss, 2017: Improving Lightning Density Guidance with Calibrated Probabilities from Ensemble Model Output. Proc., Eighth Conf. Meteor. Application of Lightning Data, Seattle, WA, 857. [535K PDF]
Picca, J.C., J.C. Snyder, and A.V. Rhyzhkov, 2015: An Observational Analysis of ZDR Column Trends in Tornadic Supercells. Preprints, 37th Conf. Radar Meteorology, Norman, OK. [1060K PDF]
Racy, J.P.*, and J.A. Rogash*, 2002: The Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak and Flash Flood Event of 4-5 October 1998. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [219K PDF]
Rogers, J.W.*, R.L. Thompson, and P.T. Marsh, 2014: Potential Applications of a CONUS Sounding Climatology Developed at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [748K PDF]
Rogers, J.W.*, 2012: Significant Tornado Events with Cell Mergers. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [1173K PDF]
Sankovitch, V.*, J.T. Schaefer* and J.J. Levit*, 2004: A Comparison of Rawinsonde Data from the Southeastern United States during El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral Winters. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [78K PDF]
Schaefer, J.T.*, J.J. Levit*, S.J. Weiss* and D.W. McCarthy*, 2004: The Frequency of Large Hail over the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 14th Conf. Applied Climatology, Seattle WA. [2554K PDF]
Schaefer, J.T.*, and C. Marzban, 2000: Tornadoes in the United States as Related to the Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [126K HTML]
Schaefer, J.T.*, and R. Edwards, 1999: The SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Database. Preprints, 11th Conf. Applied Climatology, Dallas. [266K HTML]
Schaefer, J.T.*, and F.B. Tatom, 1998: The Relationship between El Nino, La Nina and United States Tornado Activity. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN [154K HTML]
Schneider, R.S., A.R. Dean, and H.E. Brooks, 2009: Estimating Potential Severe Weather Societal Impacts Using Probabilistic Forecasts Issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Omaha NE. [109K PDF]
Schneider, R.S., and A.R. Dean, 2008: A Comprehensive 5-year Severe Storm Environment Climatology for the Continental United States. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [556K PDF]
Schneider, R.S., A.R. Dean, S.J. Weiss*, and P.D. Bothwell*, 2006: Analysis of Estimated Environments for 2004 and 2005 Severe Convective Storm Reports. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [520K PDF]
Schneider, R.S., J.T. Schaefer*, and H.E. Brooks, 2004: Tornado Outbreak Days: An Updated and Expanded Climatology (1875-2003). Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [232K PDF]
Schneider, R.S., H.E. Brooks and J.T. Schaefer*, 2004: Tornado Outbreak Day Sequences: Historic Events and Climatology (1875-2003). Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [586K PDF]
Smith, B.T., J.S. Grams, N.A. Wendt, R.M. Mosier, C.D. Karstens, and I.L. Jirak, 2024: Short-Term Hazard Intensity Forecasting at the Storm Prediction Center -- An Update. Proc., 31st Conf. Severe Local Storms, Virginia Beach, VA, P44. [1458K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, C.D. Karstens, J.S. Grams, A.R. Dean, R.M. Mosier, and A.D. Lyons, 2022: Preliminary Evaluation of a Real-Time Diagnostic Tornado Damage Intensity Estimation Tool Used at the Storm Prediction Center. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, 17.4B. [936K PDF]
Smith, B.T., 2017: Utilization of the NWS Damage Assessment Tool for Future Tornado Database Development and Application. Preprints, 42nd Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Garden Grove, CA, D-1.1. [529K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, A.R. Dean, E.M. Leitman, J.S. Grams, A.E. Cohen*, A. Gleason, J.C. Picca, P.T. Marsh, R. Wagenmaker, and G. Mann, 2015: Developmental Work at the Storm Prediction Center in Pursuit of Tornadic Supercell Probability and Tornado Intensity Estimation Using a Severe Supercell Dataset. Preprints, 40th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Oklahoma City, OK, 8 pp. [669K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, A.R. Dean, P.T. Marsh, R. Wagenmaker, G. Mann, M.J. Hudson, and J.T. Ferree, 2014: Demonstrating the Utility of Conditional Probabilities of Tornado Damage Rating in the Impact-based Warning Era. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [2199K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, and A.R. Dean, 2014: The Storm Prediction Center Tornadic Storm and Environment Database: Development and Application. Preprints, 27th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI. [712K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, H.E. Brooks, A.R. Dean, and K.L. Elmore, 2012: Diagnosis of Conditional Maximum Tornado Probabilities. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [4174K PDF]
Smith, B.T., A.C. Winters, C.M. Mead*, A.R. Dean, and T.E. Castellanos, 2010: Measured Severe Wind Gust Climatology of Thunderstorms for the Contiguous United States, 2003-2009. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1653K PDF]
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, J.S. Grams, and C. Broyles, 2010: Climatology of Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [2835K PDF]
Smith, B.T., J.L. Guyer and A.R. Dean, 2008: The Climatology, Convective Mode, and Mesoscale Environment of Cool Season Severe Thunderstorms in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, 1995-2006. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [292K PDF]
Taylor, S.J.*, D.R. Bright*, G.W. Carbin*, P.D. Bothwell*, and R.J. Naden*, 2003: Using Short Range Ensemble Model Data in National Fire Weather Outlooks. Preprints, 4th Symp. Fire and Forest Meteor., Orlando FL. [111K PDF] (supplemental web page)
Taylor, S.J.*, and E.D. Howieson, 2001: A New Approach to Fire Weather Forecasting at the Tulsa WFO. Preprints, 4th Symp. Fire and Forest Meteor., Reno NV. [215K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, A.R. Dean, and P.T. Marsh, 2012: Spatial Distributions of Tornadic Near-storm Environments by Convective Mode. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [5572K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, J.S. Grams, A.R. Dean, and C. Broyles, 2010: Climatology of Near-storm Environments with Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [388K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., J.S. Grams and J.A. Prentice, 2008: Synoptic Environments and Convective Modes Associated with Significant Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [702K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., and C.M. Mead*, 2006: Tornado Failure Modes in Central and Southern Great Plains Severe Thunderstorm Episodes. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [192K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., C.M. Mead*, and R. Edwards, 2004: Effective Bulk Shear in Supercell Thunderstorm Environments. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [258K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards, and C.M. Mead*, 2004: Effective Storm-Relative Helicity in Supercell Thunderstorm Environments. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [215K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards, and C.M. Mead*, 2004: An Update to the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [134K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards and J.A. Hart, 2002: Evaluation and Interpretation of the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [170K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards and J.A. Hart, 2002: An Assessment of Supercell and Tornado Forecast Parameters with RUC-2 Model Close Proximity Soundings. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [145K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards, J.A. Hart and K.L. Elmore, 2002: RUC-2 Model Analysis Soundings as a Surrogate for Observed Soundings in Supercell Environments. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [179K PDF]
Thompson, R.L. and R. Edwards, 2000: A Comparison of Rapid Update Cycle 2 (RUC-2) Model Soundings with Observed Soundings in Supercell Environments. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [71K HTML]
Thompson, R.L. and R. Edwards, 2000: RUC-2 Supercell Proximity Soundings, Part I: An Examination of Storm-Relative Winds Normalized to Supercell Depth. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [195K HTML]
Thompson, R.L. and M.D. Vescio*, 1998: The Destruction Potential Index: A Method for Comparing Tornado Days. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN [44K HTML]
Vancil, J.T., and I.L. Jirak, 2024: Evaluation of the RRFS Ensemble Forecast System during the 2024 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Proc., 31st Conf. Severe Local Storms, Virginia Beach, VA, 12B.3. [1244K PDF]
Vancil, J.T., and I.L. Jirak, 2023: Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System during the 2023 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Proc., 32nd Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/28th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction/20th Conf. Mesoscale Processes, Madison, WI, 10.2. [983K PDF]
Vancil, J.T., I.L. Jirak, and C.D. Karstens, 2022: Conditional Intensity Forecast Verification Using Significant Severe Local Storm Reports. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P214. [334K PDF]
Wade, A.R., B.J. Squitieri, and I.L. Jirak, 2024: Synoptic Characteristics of Widespread Significant Severe Thunderstorm Wind Events. Proc., 31st Conf. Severe Local Storms, Virginia Beach, VA, 16A.3A. [1829K PDF]
Wade, A.R., B.J. Squitieri, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: 26-Year Climatology of Severe Wind-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States. Proc., 32nd Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/28th Conf. Numerical Weather Prediction/20th Conf. Mesoscale Processes, Madison, WI, 1.5. [1364K PDF]
Wade, A.R., I.L. Jirak, V.A. Gensini, and J. Vancil, 2022: Using Practically Perfect Intensity Hindcasts to Identify the Environments of Significant Severe Weather Outbreaks. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P180. [1391K PDF]
Wade, A.R., I.L. Jirak, and A. Lyza, 2022: Performance of Operational Convection-Allowing Models by Region and Season: Near-Surface Storm Environments and Updraft Helicity. Proc., 30th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, P180. [1599K PDF]
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